Vegetables Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Vegetables Market Outlook Samuel D. Zapata Small Acreage Horticulture Conference Weslaco, TX

2 Vegetable Industry Overview Supply and Demand Challenges and Opportunities

3 Vegetable Industry Overview

4 Value of Texas Agricultural Production

5 RGV Top Commodities All Other, 42.0% Cotton Lint, 25.2% Sorghum, 9.5% Grapefruit, 9.2% Fishing, 6.2% Vegetables, 7.9% Rank by Total Value Total Value ($1000's) Percent of RGV Total Cotton Lint $184, % Sorghum $69, % Grapefruit $67, % Vegetables $57, % Fishing $45, % RGV Total $731, % State Total $26,138,870

6 Vegetable Acres in Production 1,400,000 1,200,000 29% 1,000,000 24% 800, , , ,000 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0 U.S.: 4,180,894 acres, 72,045 farms Texas: 124,133 acres, 2,296 farms Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture

7 Vegetable Farm Size US US TEXAS 8% 4% 5% 8% 4% 5% 9% 5% 6% 18% 18% 65% 23% 65% 57% 0.1 TO 4.9 ACRES 5.0 TO 24.9 ACRES 25.0 TO 99.9 ACRES 100 TO 249 ACRES 250 OR MORE ACRES ~58 ac/farm ~54 ac/farm Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture

8 Vegetable Farm Ownership 8% 7% US 1% 2% 8% 7% US 1% 2% 7% 4% TEXAS 1% 2% 82% 82% 86% Family Family Corporation Other Partnership Non-Family Corporation Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture

9 Top Vegetables Grown PEPPERS BROCCOLI CAULIFLOWER SQUASH CABBAGE PUMPKINS CARROTS CUCUMBERS PEAS SPINACH US GARLIC CELERY ASPARAGUS ARTICHOKES SPINACH CABBAGE PEPPERS PUMPKINS CARROTS TEXAS SQUASH ONIONS SWEET POTATOES POTATOES CUCUMBERS POTATOES MELONS BEANS ONIONS LETTUCE BEANS TOMATOES SWEET CORN MELONS Source: USDA NASS

10 Million Dollars Value of Vegetable Sales 18,000 16,000 16,851 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 U.S. 475 Texas Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture

11 Crop Value Comparison Commodity Acreage (million) Market Value ($ million) AcreValue ($/ac) Corn , Soybeans , wheat , Cotton , Sorghum , Vegetables ,838 5,386 Tree Nuts ,024 4,477 Citrus ,439 4,837 Source: USDA NASS

12 Crop Value Comparison Commodity Acreage (million) Market Value ($ million) AcreValue ($/ac) Corn , Soybeans , wheat , Cotton , Sorghum , Vegetables ,838 5,386 Tree Nuts ,024 4,477 Citrus ,439 4,837 Source: USDA NASS

13 Crop Value Comparison Commodity Acreage (million) Market Value ($ million) AcreValue ($/ac) Corn , Soybeans , wheat , Cotton , Sorghum , Vegetables ,838 5,386 Tree Nuts ,024 4,477 Citrus ,439 4,837 Source: USDA NASS

14 Supply and Demand

15 Milliom pounds U.S. Consumption and Production of Fresh Vegetables 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25, Produced Consumed Source: USDA-ERS

16 Factors Affecting the Demand for Vegetables Per capita income Price differentials Change in consumer preferences Seasonality Fresh vs. processed Innovation and convenience

17 Real Median Household Income

18 Price ($/cwt) Historical Vegetable Prices Dark Green Red & Orange Starchy Other Source: USDA-ERS

19 Historical Vegetable Prices Commodity % Change $/cwt Dark Green % Head lettuce % Spinach % Red & Orange % Tomatoes % Carrots % Starchy % Potatoes % Sweet corn % Other % Brussels sprouts % Artichokes % Total % Source: USDA-ERS

20 Fresh Vegetables per capita Availability Dark Green Red & Orange Starchy Legumes Other Source: USDA-ERS

21 Fresh Vegetable Availability Commodity % Change pounds/year Dark Green % Head lettuce % Spinach % Red & Orange % Tomatoes % Carrots % Starchy % Potatoes % Sweet corn % Other % Brussels sprouts % Artichokes % Total % Source: USDA-ERS

22 Fresh vs. Processed

23 Innovation and convenience

24 Social Media

25 Food as social status? In order to gain and hold esteem of men it is not sufficient merely to posses wealth or power. The wealth or power must be put in evidence, for esteem is only awarded on evidence. Thorstein Veblen ( ) 25

26 Is it possible? 26

27 Factors Affecting the Supply of Vegetables Competition Trade Weather Input prices Labor

28 Source: TDA

29 Global Production Seasons Adapted from NOAA

30 Million pounds U.S. Net Trade of Fresh Vegetables 15,100 10,100 5, ,900-9,900-14,900 Exports Imports Net Trade Source: USDA-ERS

31 Sources of Imported Vegetables to the U.S Total value: $8,000 Guatemala, $125 India, $2 Spain, China, $180 $51 Rest of Peru, $329 World, $427 Million Dollars Canada, $1,414 Mexico, $5,472 Source: USDA-FAS

32 Mexican Fresh Vegetables Exports to U.S., 2017 Selected Vegetables: $5,474 Million Dollars Tomato GH, $1, Other Vegetables, $1, Asparagus, $ Squash, $ Cucumber, $ Onion, $ Bell Pepper, $ Roma Tomato, $ Broccoli, $ Chili Pepper, $ Bell Pepper GH, $ Source: U.S. Trade Internet System,

33 Canadian Fresh Vegetables Exports to U.S Total Value: $1,414 Million Dollars Bell Peppers GH, $ Other Vegetables, $ Tomato GH, $ Russel Potato, $45.00 Cucumber, $63.00 Peppers, $47.00 Onion, $35.00 Red Skin Potato, $47.00 Potato, $67.00 Carrot, $48.00 Mushrooms, $ Source: U.S. Trade Internet System,

34 Total Availability (%) Share of Imported Fresh Vegetables

35 Drought Conditions

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38 How Thirsty is Your Food?

39 Fertilizers Use vs. Source: USDA-NASS

40 Fertilizer Prices PPI, base= All fertilizers Nitrogen Phosphate Source: USDA-NASS

41 Challenges and Opportunities

42 Challenges Labor shortages Food safety Trade

43 Labor Cost Share

44 Legal Status of Farmworkers

45 Temporary Farmworkers (H2-A)

46 H-2A Wage

47 Food Safety Cannot control every possible risk Vegetables are very safe Consumers expect zero risk Foodborne outbreaks are very visible

48 Number of Refusals Fruit and Vegetable Import Refusals 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: FDA

49 Number of Outbreaks Million Pounds Vegetable Related Foodborne Outbreaks 1,500 1,400 46,000 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 44,500 43,000 41, , , ,000 Outbreaks Availability Source: USDA-ERS, CDC

50 Mexico Main Highway Network 2006 Mazatlán Durango Highway: > 140 miles 114 bridges 61 tunnels 2012 Reduce transportation cost: Travel time: >6hrs Saving of $500 -$1,500 per load

51 Baluarte Bridge

52 U.S. Population Density, 2010 Nogales, AR Pharr, TX Adapted from Wang et al., 2014

53 U.S. Imports of Fresh Produce from Mexico

54 Opportunities Food spending Dietary guidelines

55 Consumer Expenditures on Food

56 BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010 (*BMI , or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4 person) Source: CDC No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25% 29% 30%

57 Dietary Guidelines for America Food Pyramid: 1992 My Plate: 2010 Suggested Actual

58 Cups Ounces Historical Daily Food Availability Protein Grains Dairy Fruits Vegetables

59 Changes needed to meet Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) Food Group Units Recommended Available 2015 % Change Fruits cup/wk % Vegetables cup/wk % Dark Green cup/wk % Red & Orange cup/wk % Starchy cup/wk % Legumes cup/wk % Other cup/wk % Grains oz/cup % Protein oz/cup % Dairy cup/wk % Based on USDA-ERS and DGA

60 Changes needed to meet Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) Food Group Total Available Total Needed Difference million pounds Fruits 80, , ,674 Vegetables 122, , ,165 Dark Green 8,374 11,772 +3,399 Red & Orange 31, , ,251 Starchy 44,033 49,497 +5,463 Legumes 3,066 2, Other 35,220 42,416 +7,196 Grains 55,754 49,863-5,891 Protein 145, ,467-38,965 Dairy 201, , ,427 Based on USDA-ERS and DGA

61 Thank you! Samuel D.