EU COP balance sheets 2014/2015 and forecasts 2015/16. AGRI C 4 22 September 2015
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1 EU COP balance sheets 2014/2015 and forecasts 2015/16 AGRI C 4 22 September 2015
2 2014/2015 Marketing Year Cereals 2
3 EU TRADE 2014/2015 EU net exporter 1. + Common wheat export new record : 1. - Russian export tax and exports restrictions in UKR, 2. - extension of maximum level of humidity (13.5%) for Egyptian purchases, 2. + Barley Export new record (FR competitiveness on Chinese market) 3. + Maize Export new record (Access to the Chinese market) 1. + exchange rate 2. + low costs of freights
4 EU MS exporting common wheat (incl. flour and groats) BG 4% LT 5% PL 10% RO 12% 11% 33.3 mio t. +64% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) DE 23% FR 35% (Thousand tons) PL 2% FR % DE % RO % PL % LT % BG % % LT 4% RO 6% DE 21% BG 3% 9% 20.4 mio t. FR 55% 4
5 EU common wheat (incl. flour and groats) export destinations Algeria 17% Algeria 21% 47% 33.3 mio t. Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) +64% Iran 7% Egypt 13% Morocco 8% Saudi Arabia 8% (Thousand tons) 49% Algeria % Egypt % Morocco % Saudi Arabia % Iran % % 20.4 mio t. Iran 6% Egypt 10% Morocco 10% Saudi Arabia 4% 5
6 EU MS exporting barley (incl. malt) BG 3% DK 5% UK 7% BE 9% 13% RO 13% 12.7 mio t. +80% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) DE 16% FR 34% (Thousand tons) BG 2% UK 5% FR % DE % RO % BE % UK % DK % BG % % DK 7% 17% BE 15% 7.1 mio t. RO 8% FR 27% DE 19% 6
7 EU barley (incl. malt) export destinations 35% Jordan 3% Iran Libya 3% 4% 12.7 mio t. +80% Algeria 5% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) Japan 6% China 24% Saudi Arabia 20% (Thousand tons) Algeria 4% Libya 1% Iran 1% Jordan 3% China % Saudi Arabia % Japan % Algeria % Libya % Iran % Jordan % % 56% China 3% 7.1 mio t. Saudi Arabia 28% Japan 4% 7
8 EU MS exporting maize (incl. processed products) 12% 17% FR 11% BG 13% 4.0 mio t. +78% RO 64% FR 23% 2.2 mio t. RO 48% BG 12% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) RO % BG % FR % % 8
9 EU maize (incl. processed products) export destinations 35% Iran 5% Libya 5% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) 4.0 mio t. +78% Israel 5% China 7% Turkey 18% Egypt 11% South Korea 14% (Thousand tons) Turkey % South Korea % Egypt % China Israel % Libya % Iran % % 53% Turkey 11% 2.2 mio t. Libya 5% Iran 2% South Korea 15% Egypt 11% Israel 3% 9 China 0%
10 EU MS importing common wheat (incl. flour and groats) EL 9% UK 14% 12% 2.9 mio t. -7% IT 35% EL 6% UK 15% 15% 3.1 mio t. IT 27% ES 30% ES 37% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) IT % ES % UK % EL % % 10
11 EU common wheat (incl. flour and groats) import origins Moldova 4% Russia 3% 11% 21% Ukraine 24% United States 11% Canada 21% 2.9 mio t. -7% Ukraine 50% Moldova 1% Russia 13% 3.1 mio t. United States 22% Canada 19% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) Ukraine % Canada % United States % Russia % Moldova % % 11
12 EU MS importing durum wheat (incl. flour) BE 13% ES 4% DE 4% 4% 2.8 mio t. +48% IT 75% ES 1% BE 12% DE 3% 4% ( ) 1.9 mio t. IT 80% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) ( ) IT % BE % ES % DE % % 12
13 EU durum wheat (incl. flour) import origins Australia 3% 9% Mexico 4% United States 12% Canada 72% Australia 9% 14% Canada 2.8 mio t. ( ) Mexico 49% 10% 1.9 mio t. +48% United States 18% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) ( ) Canada % United States % Mexico % Australia % % 13
14 EU MS importing maize (incl. Processed products) IE DE 3% 3% UK 6% PT 9% IT 10% 9% 9.3 mio t. +12% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) NL 21% ES 39% (Thousand tons) IE 2% ES % NL % IT % PT % UK % DE % IE % % DE 3% UK 5% PT 16% 12% IT 10% 8.3 mio t. NL 14% ES 38% 14
15 EU maize (incl. Processed products) Import origins Brazil 6% United States 6% Canada 7% Argentina 6% 4% Serbia 11% 9.3 mio t. +12% Ukraine 60% United States 4% Canada 3% Argentina 5% Brazil 13% 15% 8.3 mio t. Ukraine 51% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) Ukraine % Serbia % Canada % United States % Brazil % Argentina % % Serbia 9% 15
16 16
17 EU-28 Cereals balance sheet:marketing year: 2014/2015 Aug-15 Common (Mio t) wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale EUR 28 Beginning stocks ( ) 9,1 7,2 0,3 15,3 1,1 0,2 0,6 0,6 0,3 34,7 Usable production 148,8 60,2 7,6 77,8 8,7 0,8 7,7 13,0 4,5 329,1 Import 2,9 0,1 2,8 9,3 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 15,5 TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 160,8 67,5 10,7 102,4 9,9 1,1 8,3 13,6 5,0 379,3 USE - Human 48,0 0,4 8,1 5,0 3,0 0,2 1,1 0,1 0,0 65,7 - Seed 4,7 2,3 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,3 9,6 - Industrial 10,5 9,3 0,1 10,0 1,5 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,1 32,1 of which alcohol 12,6 o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,4 0,7 4,7 0,8 0,5 11,0 - Animal feed 52,4 35,9 0,1 60,0 3,5 0,6 4,9 11,3 3,3 172,0 TOTAL USE 115,5 47,8 8,7 75,4 8,5 0,8 6,6 12,4 3,7 279,5 Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2 Solde disponible 44,3 19,3 2,0 26,4 1,3 0,3 1,7 1,1 1,2 97,6 Export 33,3 12,7 1,2 4,0 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 51,7 Ending stocks ( ) 11,0 6,6 0,8 22,4 1,1 0,3 1,4 1,1 1,2 45,9 17
18 EU BALANCE SHEET 2014/2015 EU Production at record level (including soft wheat and maize) + Mainly yield effect + higher percentage of feed wheat Record EU trade for wheat, barley and maize + EU 1st world exporter of soft wheat and barley Strong recovery in stocks
19 2015/2016 Marketing Year Cereals 19
20 EU areas Forecasts EU EVOL CEREALS AREA % change Mio ha July fcst Aug fcst 2014/2015 TOTAL 57,9 58,2 57,9 57,7-0,8 Soft wheat 23,4 24,4 24,3 24,2-0,8 Durum wheat 2,4 2,3 2,4 2,4 4,5 Barley 12,7 12,4 12,4 12,4 0,0 Maize 9,8 9,7 9,4 9,4-3,3 Rye 2,6 2,1 2,2 2,2 6,1 Oats 2,6 2,5 2,5 2,5-2,1 Sources : DG AGRI - C4 20
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23 EU Production Forecasts EU EVOL CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTIONS 2013/ / / /2016 %change Mio t July fcst Aug fcst 2014/2015 TOTAL 304,8 329,1 301,7 296,6-9,9 Soft wheat 135,1 148,8 139,4 140,7-5,4 Durum wheat 8,0 7,6 7,8 7,9 3,9 Barley 60,6 60,2 56,5 57,2-5,0 Maize 66,8 77,8 65,5 58,7-24,6 Rye 10,1 8,7 8,1 8,1-6,9 Oats 8,3 7,7 7,5 7,5-2,6 Sources : DG AGRI -C4 23
24 EU production Forecasts Most important producers (80% of EU production) total cereals prod changes 2014/2015 FR -3,9% DE -9,6% PL -11,8% IT -10,7% UK -7,7% ES -0,3% HU -21,3% RO -25,2% 24
25 EU production Forecasts 2015/2016 Marketing Year usable prod EC Stratégie CCR ADM Europe Mio t DG AGRI Grain Total Août Août Août Août Cereals 296,6 302,2 298,3 304,5 Soft Wheat 140,7 144,0 141,0 146,2 Durum Wheat 7,9 7,6 7,6 7,7 Barley 57,2 58,8 57,0 59,3 Maize 58,7 59,6 60,4 59,7 Rye 8,1 8,3 8,2 8,2 25
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30 TRADE MEASURES - Russia : wheat export tax : 50 percent of the customs price minus roubles but not less than 50 roubles per tonne - Egypt : extension of maximum level of humidity (13.5%) for import of soft wheat (May 2016) - Iran : New duty on private traders imports of soft wheat - China : rumoured changes to China s maize price support - China : Import system of licence for barley Trade protocol agreement with UK
31 EU-28 Cereals balance sheet:marketing year: 2015/2016 août-15 Common (Mio t) wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale EUR 28 Beginning stocks ( ) 11,0 6,6 0,8 22,4 1,1 0,3 1,4 1,1 1,2 45,9 Usable production 140,7 57,2 7,9 58,7 8,1 0,6 7,5 11,5 4,3 296,6 Import 3,0 0,3 1,8 10,0 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,1 15,6 TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 154,7 64,1 10,5 91,2 9,3 1,2 9,0 12,5 5,6 358,1 USE - Human 48,0 0,4 8,1 5,0 3,0 0,2 1,2 0,1 0,3 66,1 - Seed 4,7 2,3 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,3 9,6 - Industrial 10,6 9,3 0,1 10,0 1,5 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,1 32,3 of which alcohol 12,8 o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,5 0,7 4,7 0,8 0,5 11,2 - Animal feed 52,0 36,6 0,1 61,3 3,4 0,7 4,8 11,0 3,2 173,1 TOTAL USE 115,3 48,5 8,7 76,8 8,4 0,9 6,5 12,1 4,0 281,1 Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2 Solde disponible 38,5 15,1 1,8 13,8 0,9 0,3 2,4 0,3 1,6 74,8 Export 27,9 9,0 1,2 3,0 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 41,5 Ending stocks ( ) 69,6 29,1 4,2 30,0 4,4 0,7 4,7 5,7 3,0 151,4 Ending stocks ( ) 10,6 6,1 0,6 10,8 0,7 0,3 2,2 0,3 1,6 33,3
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33 EU BALANCE SHEET 2015/2016 Good level of harvest : higher percentage of milling wheat Lower feed grains Comfortable availabilities Slight increase in use for animal feed Decrease in stocks
34 Marketing year 2015/2016 Oilseeds and Protein Forecasts 34
35 EU areas Forecasts EU EVOL Oilseeds and Protein crops AREA % change Mio ha July fcst Aug fcst 2014/2015 Rapeseed 6,70 6,71 6,41 6,44-4,0 Sunflower 4,58 4,18 4,20 4,19 0,1 Soja 0,47 0,57 0,74 0,74 30,4 Linseed 0,07 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,0 TOTAL 11,82 11,54 11,43 11,45-0,8 Field peas 0,45 0,49 0,63 0,62 27,3 Broad beans 0,36 0,40 0,43 0,42 5,0 Sweet lupins 0,06 0,08 0,09 0,09 8,5 TOTAL 0,86 0,97 1,14 1,13 16,5 Sources : DG AGRI - C4 35
36 EU Production Forecasts EU EVOL Oilseeds and Protein crops Production % change Mio t July fcst Aug fcst 2014/2015 Rapeseed 20,90 24,28 20,73 20,81-14,3 Sunflower 9,06 9,07 8,19 7,70-15,2 Soja 1,07 1,85 2,02 1,97 6,3 Linseed 0,14 0,14 0,13 0,13-11,9 TOTAL 31,17 35,35 31,07 30,60-13,4 Field peas 1,23 1,28 1,62 1,58 23,3 Broad beans 1,02 1,29 1,26 1,20-6,4 Sweet lupins 0,13 0,13 0,14 0,14 8,5 TOTAL 2,38 2,70 3,02 2,92 8,5 Sources : DG AGRI - C4 36
37 Thank you for your attention! Balance sheet updates & market presentation available: lance-sheets/index_en.htm
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