Trade in Agricultural Products Between Russia and Central Asia: Trends and Opportunities

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1 Trade in Agricultural Products Between Russia and Central Asia: Trends and Opportunities Kamiljon Akramov (IFPRI) and Evgeny Tsvetnov (ECFS) Joint work with Olga Cherkasova (ECFS), Mikhail Avdeev (ECFS), and Jarilkasin Ilyasov (IFPRI) Third Annual International Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition in Eurasia May 30, 2018 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

2 Outline Background Objective and approach Long-term demand for food and agricultural products in Russia Patterns of trade in agricultural and food products in Central Asia Results of traditional RCA analysis Empirical strategy and findings of econometric analysis Conclusions

3 Agriculture plays an important role in the region

4 Background There are several factors that contribute to the growth of mutual trade between Russia and Central Asian countries, including the growth of exports of agricultural and food products from Central Asia to Russia: Dietary transformation, i.e. changing composition of food consumption in Russia Changing geography of Russia s agri-food imports The presence of historical trade relations between Russia and Central Asian countries Deepening of integration processes between Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union

5 Objective and methodology The objective is to provide empirical evidence on comparative advantages of Central Asian countries in agricultural and food products and opportunities for their agri-food exports in Russian markets Empirical methodology: IFPRI s IMPACT model will be used to identify food products for which Russian demand will likely exhibit steady long-term growth Traditional revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis Econometrics-based measure of RCA will be used to examine comparative advantages of Central Asian countries in selected agricultural goods

6 GDP per capita, 1000 USD (2005) Average annual growth rate, % IMPACT socio-economic assumptions Projected population and income growth for Russia (IFPRI baseline)* Population, mln. Average annual growth rate (% per ) Russia 142,4 136,7-0,1 * SSP2 pathway, no climate change assumptio Source: IFPRI, Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, World Bank

7 Russian food demand projections Average annual grown in food demand, % Growing incomes and changing diets in Russia, will result in fast food demand growth for vegetables, fruits, meats and sugar. Post-2030, declining population as well as slowing income growth will largely contribute to declining food demand for all major agri-food categories, especially for oilseeds and eggs to to 2050 Source: IFPRI, 2015

8 Russian agri-food net exports growth Russia will maintain its position as a net importer for the following products meat, milk, eggs, fruits, root and tuber crops. Differences in 4 scenarios is minor. GFDL HGEM IPSL MIROC Source: IFPRI, 2015 Scenarios Precipitation Temperature Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory decreases decreases Hadley Centre Global Environment Model decreases increases Institute Pierre Simon Laplace increases decreases Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate increases increases The position of the Russian Federation as a net exporter of grain will remain in the future, with possible growth of its exports; there is also a tendency of increasing the growth of pulses, sugar, vegetables, oilseeds and oilseed processing exports

9 Product selection for Russia The agricultural products of Central Asia, which could be relevant for the Russian market Projected value of the Russian agri-food imports in 2050, 1000 USD (2005) Poultry 4,838,763 Milk 3,367,813 Beef 3,006,456 Eggs 1,311,530 Pork 1,208,458 Sugar 549,599 Potato 168,165 Groundnut 140,714 Soybean Meal 75,389 Horticulture products (selection based on contemporary dynamics of exports to Russia) ~5,712,101

10 Horticulture products selection for Russia Horticulture product Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Fresh watermelons Fresh melons (excluding watermelons) Fresh grapes Dried grapes Fresh cherries (excluding sour cherries) Fresh peaches Fresh apricots Fresh plums and sloes Fresh persimmons Dried prunes Dried apricot Mixtures of nuts or dried fruits Dried peaches, pears, papaws "papayas", tamarinds and other edible fruits (excluding nuts, Fresh apples Fresh or dried walnuts, shelled Fresh or dried lemons "Citrus limon, Citrus limonum" and limes "Citrus aurantifolia, Citrus Frozen fruit and nuts, uncooked or cooked by steaming or boiling in water, whether or not sweetened Source: Calculations, based on Trademap data

11 Revealed Comparative Advantage The revealed comparative advantage of a nation is measured by the relative weight of the proportion of total export of commodity s in a nation over the proportion of world export in that commodity (Balassa, 1965) K is a commodity index while j is a country index, X is export RCA kj X / X j k k j X k / j k j j k X j k

12 Implication When RCA>1, it means that country j has a revealed comparative advantage on commodity k. When RCA<1, it means that country j has a revealed comparative disadvantage on commodity k.

13 Russia - RCA for Agri-Food Exports, average Sunflower (meal) Sunflower (oil) Wheat Rapeseed (oil) Soybeans (oil) Rapeseed (meal) Sunflower (seed) Soybeans (meal) Rapeseed (seed) Milk (not Milk (concentrated Soybeans (seed) Sugar (cane or beat) Apricots (dry) Plums dried (prunes) Pork (meat) Walnuts, with shell Grapes (fresh) Lamb (sheep&goat Peaches and Plums and sloes Beef (meat) Apricots (fresh) Cherries RCA of wheat and meslin, гг Wheat and meslin Cereals; wheat and meslin, durum wheat, other than seed Cereals; wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed Source: own calculations based on UN Comtrade data and TradeMap.org The main competitive advantages of Russia are associated with the production of wheat and sunflower seeds (meal and oil). This suggests that the profiles of the competitive advantages of Russia and the countries of Central Asia, except Kazakhstan, are different. It gives an opportunity for Central Asia countries to realize their competitive advantages in Russian market. Source: own calculations based on UN Comtrade data and

14 Export prices for agri-food products of Russia, Central Asian countries and TOP-5 world leaders in export of this products in 2016 The export price of agri-food products of Russia and Central Asian countries with high RCA value is competitive in the global market. HS Code Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation 1001 Wheat and meslin Milk and cream Sunflower (seed) Sunflower (meal) Rapeseed (oil) Fruit, edible; cherries, other than sour cherries (Prunus cerasus), fresh Grapes (fresh) Nuts, edible; walnuts, fresh or dried, in shell Plums and sloes Peaches and nectarines Plums dried (prunes) Apricots (fresh) Apricots (dry) Tajikistan Uzbekistan TOP-5 World Russia Canada France Australia Ukraine Germany France Belgium Czech Republic Netherlands Romania Bulgaria Moldova Hungary France Ukraine Russia Argentina Netherlands Hungary Canada Germany Czech Republic Poland Belgium Chile USA Hong Kong Turkey Uzbekistan Chile USA Italy South Africa Peru Mexico USA Chile France Hong Kong Chile Spain South Africa Italy USA Spain Italy Greece USA Chile Chile USA Argentina France Uzbekistan Spain Uzbekistan France Turkey Italy Turkey Tajikistan Myanmar Uzbekistan Belarus cells with low export volume are marked with color Source: own calculations based on UN Comtrade data and TradeMap.org

15 Structure of Agricultural Trade in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan agri-food exports, 2016 Kazakhstan agri-food imports, 2016 Cotton, silk and wool 4% Others 13% Meat products 3% Vegetables 3% Meat products 8% Dairy, egg and honey 8% Vegetables 4% Fats and oils 13% Cereal products 64% Others 43% Fruits and nuts 15% Sugar products 9% Fats and oils 8% Coffee, tea and spices 5%

16 Structure of Agricultural Trade in Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan agri-food exports, 2016 Kyrgyzstan agri-food imports, 2016 Cotton, silk and wool 13% Others 13% Meat products 2% Dairy 16% Meat products 5% Vegetables 3% Fruits and nuts 7% Coffee, tea and spices 3% Others 45% Cereal products 11% Fruits and nuts 15% Vegetables 41% Sugar products 13% Fats and oils 13%

17 Structure of Agricultural Trade in Tajikistan Tajikistan agri-food exports, 2016 Tajikistan agri-food imports, 2016 Others 7% Meat products 12% Vegetables 9% Sugar products 9% Others 23% Meat products 6% Dairy 3% Coffee, tea and spices 2% Cotton, silk and wool 55% Fruits and nuts 14% Cereal products 3% Fats and oils 12% Cereal products 45%

18 Structure of Agricultural Trade in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan agri-food exports, 2016 Uzbekistan agri-food imports, 2016 Others 6% Dairy 1% Vegetables 12% Fruits and nuts 27% Sugar products 2% Others 23% Meat products 5% Dairy 2% Coffee, tea and spices 4% Cotton, silk and wool 50% Fats and oils 2% Cereal products 2% Fats and oils 27% Cereal products 37%

19 Geography of agri-food trade in Central Asia 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan CA neighbors Russia China EU Other countries

20 Geography of Uzbekistan s fruits and vegetable exports Uzbekistan Fruits Exports, 2016 Uzbekistan Vegetable Exports, 2016 Turkey 10% Other 11% Afghanistan 25% Other 11% Kazakhstan 38% China 6% Kazakhstan 58% Russia 15% India 10% Russia 16%

21 Uzbekistan s share in fruit and vegetable imports of Russia and Kazakhstan Uzbekistan's share in selected fruit imports, 2016 % Apricots, cherries and peaches Grapes Fresh strawberries Dried appricot Russia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan's share in selected vegetables imports, 2016, % Russia Kazakhstan Tomatoes (0702) Green vegetables (0709) Leafy green vegetables (0705) 9.2 NA Cabbage, califlower, etc. (0704) NA 83.8 Onions, garlic, etc. (0703) NA 27.5 Cucumbers (0707) NA 72.5 Carrots, turnips, etc. (0706) NA 66.7 Dried leguminous veg. (0713) NA 71.1 Russia Kazakhstan Apricots, cherries and peaches Grapes Fresh strawberries Dried appricot NA 67

22 Revealed Comparative Advantage in Wheat Russian Federation Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Sourse: Authors' calculations using UN COMTRADE Database

23 Revealed Comparative Advantage in Tomato Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Sourse: Authors' calculations using UN COMTRADE Database

24 Revealed Comparative Advantage in Pitted Fruits Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Armenia Chile Turkey Sourse: Authors' calculations using UN COMTRADE Database

25 Uzbekistan: RCA Selected Horticulture Products Cabbages Root Vegetables Greens Nuts, other Grapes Fruits, other Sourse: Authors' calculations using UN COMTRADE Database

26 Empirical weaknesses of RCA This index compares the performance of a country in one product to the performance of a reference group of countries using export flows In doing so, it mixes up comparative advantage driven with other determinants of trade flows in approximating the RCA Good export performance can be due to several factors that not directly linked to comparative advantage Formal or informal trade barriers, demand shock, historical trade relationships, geopolitical factors Recent increase in agricultural trade between CA and Russia can be due to latest geopolitical developments Poor (unstable) empirical distribution characteristics

27 Econometrics-based measure of RCA Costinot et al (2012) developed a theoretically-consistent measure of RCA that isolates the export-specific factors driving trade flows It also isolates partner country and sector specific factors that may affect export trade flows

28 Empirical specification

29 Empirical specification (cont.)

30 Uzbekistan Export RCA in Selected Agricultural Products, Wheat Milk Tomatoes Cabbages Root vegetables Greens Nuts, other Grapes Melons Apples & Pears Pitted Fruits Fruits, other Armenia Azerbaijan Chile China Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia Tajikistan Turkey Ukraine

31 Conclusions Differing competitive advantages of Russia and Central Asian countries (except Kazakhstan) gives opportunities for latter in Russian market Central Asian countries may have strong comparative advantages in selected agri-food products Kazakhstan: wheat, barley, selected oil crops Kyrgyzstan: milk, tomatoes, cabbages, root vegetables, nuts, apples & pears, pitted fruits Tajikistan: Root vegetables, nuts, grapes, pitted fruits, other fruits Uzbekistan: Tomatoes, cabbages, root vegetables, greens, nuts, grapes, melons, pitted fruits, other fruits Policymakers need to be aware of changing market conditions and price fluctuations Investment in infrastructure, marketing, branding, and improvements in SPS will help to boost comparative advantage

32 Thank you

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