Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association

Transcription

1 Beef, Veal and Lamb Report Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef output last week declined 1.5% but was 1.1% better than the same week a year ago. Year to date weekly beef production is tracking 3.2% below Beef packer margins are tight due to the recent softness in the beef markets. This and the Thanksgiving holiday next week are likely to temper beef output which could keep a lid on the cattle markets but bring support to beef. That said, any strength in the beef markets may be short-lived. Forward beef sales have been lethargic as of late signaling that retailers are opting to feature alternative proteins in the coming weeks. Further, the USDA choice boxed beef cutout has been flat to lower in December in each of the last seven years. Price USDA, FOB per pound Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Lower Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Lower Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Good Higher 109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (pr) Increasing Good Lower 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Lower 120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Lower 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Lower 121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 180 1x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Higher 193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Good Higher 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 65% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Lower Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Lower Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Higher Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association

2 Grains Recent precipitation has helped the U.S. winter wheat crop improve. As of November 15 th, 52% of the crop was rated in either good or excellent condition which is up substantially from a few weeks ago and in-line with the five year average ratings for the date. Wheat prices may remain weak in the near term. Prices USDA, FOB Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Good Lower Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Good Lower Corn, bushel Increasing Good Higher Crude Corn Oil, lb Decreasing Good Higher High Fructose Corn Syrup Steady Good Higher Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Good Higher Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Decreasing Good Lower HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Black Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Decreasing Good Lower

3 Dairy Butter prices have set new record highs for November as various retailers attempt to secure last minute supplies for the holiday season. History suggests, however, that the greater price risk in butter from here is to the downside. The five year average move for CME spot butter during the next six weeks is a decline of 11.4%. Further, December butter futures earlier this week were pricing at a $.60 a pound discount to the CME spot butter market. CME cheese barrel prices have declined nearing a one year low. The downside may be limited from here for the CME cheese barrel market. Prices per pound, except Class I Cream (hundred weight), from USDA. Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Increasing Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Increasing Good Lower Butter (CME) Steady Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Lower Whey, Dry Increasing Good Lower Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Higher Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower

4 Pork Pork production last week rose 1.5% and was 6.2% more than the same week last year. Hog slaughter was the biggest in nearly three years while total pork tonnage was a record high. Pork output is expected to be much closer to the prior year levels soon. The USDA is forecasting winter pork production to be.2% smaller than the previous year which would be the first such occurrence since the fall of Ham prices have found support at times this fall due to holiday demand. But history suggests that lower ham prices could be forthcoming. Prices USDA, FOB per pound. Live Hogs Decreasing Ample Lower Sow Decreasing Ample Lower Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Decreasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Ham (23-27 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Loin (bone in) Decreasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Lower Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Good Lower SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 72% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower

5 Poultry For the week ending November 7 th, chicken production rose 7.3% from the previous week and was 3.4% larger than the same week last year. The USDA is forecasting first quarter 2016 chicken output to be 2.7% more than the previous year but recent chick placement data suggests production may be closer to 2015 levels. The six week moving average for chick placements stands at 1.5% below last year. Boneless skinless chicken breast prices remain deflated with the ARA Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Index falling to its least expensive level since the spring of The same index has not traded appreciably below the existing levels in over 13 years. This is behind expectations that chicken output growth will be slowed soon. Prices USDA, FOB per pound except when noted. Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Decreasing Good Lower Wings (whole) Decreasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Decreasing Good Lower Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Lower Breast, Bone In Decreasing Good Lower Breast, Boneless Skinless Decreasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Lower Tenderloin (random) Steady Good Lower Tenderloin (sized) Steady Good Lower Legs (whole) Decreasing Good Lower Leg Quarters Decreasing Good Lower Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Lower Thighs, Bone In Increasing Good Lower Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Lower Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Decreasing Short Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Steady Short Higher Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Higher Medium Eggs (dozen) Steady Short Higher Liquid Whole Eggs Decreasing Short Higher Liquid Egg Whites Decreasing Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Decreasing Short Higher

6 Seafood Despite an elevated U.S. dollar value, salmon imports during September were 5.6% less than last year despite a 9% rise in trade with Chile. U.S. salmon imports were still the second largest for the month since at least If domestic salmon import growth continues to stall, it could bring some modest support to salmon prices during the first quarter of Prices for fresh product, unless noted, per pound from Fisheries Market News Shrimp (16/20 frz) Increasing Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Increasing Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Steady Good Higher

7 Paper and Plastic Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Decreasing Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Decreasing Good Lower Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Oct-15 Sept-15 Aug-15 Beef and Veal Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Pork Increasing Increasing Increasing Chicken Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Increasing Increasing Various Markets Orange juice futures have found support in recent weeks. The USDA is projecting the domestic orange harvest to decline 14% from the previous crop year. Orange juice prices may be firm in the near term. Price bases noted below. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Decreasing Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Decreasing Good Lower Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Higher Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Good Higher Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower

8 Produce Earlier weather challenges continue to temper lettuce crop yields bringing support to the markets. However, there are some signs of improvement with total iceberg lettuce shipments last week rising 8%. Still, shipments were 10.7% below the same week last year. Lettuce supplies and prices could remain erratic into December. The domestic 2015 fall potato harvest is estimated by the USDA to be 1.2% more than last year and the biggest since Still dry weather impacted Northwest output with Idaho production declining 1.9% from the prior year due to a 3.1% reduction in yields. Price bases noted below Limes (150 ct) Increasing Good Lower Lemons (95 ct) Steady Good Higher Lemons (200 ct) Steady Short Higher Honeydew (6 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Cantaloupe (15 ct) Steady Good Lower Blueberries (12 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Strawberries (12 pnt) Increasing Good Higher Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Increasing Good Same Bananas (40 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher Pineapple (7 ct) Term Decreasing Good Same Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Increasing Short Higher Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Higher Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Increasing Short Higher Processing Potato (cwt) Steady Short Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Decreasing Good Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher Red Onions (25 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher White Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Increasing Good Lower Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Increasing Good Lower Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Increasing Good Lower Green Peppers (lg case) Increasing Good Higher Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Steady Good Lower Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Higher Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Decreasing Good Higher Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Higher Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Broccoli (14 ct) Increasing Good Higher Squash (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Lower Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Lower Green Beans (bushel) Increasing Good Lower Spinach (flat 24) Increasing Good Higher Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Decreasing Good Lower Cucumbers (bushel) Increasing Good Higher Pickles ( ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Asparagus (sm) Increasing Good Higher Freight (truck CA-Cty Av) Increasing Good Higher

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