World Agricultural Production

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1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 1111 World Agricultural Southeast Asia Rice: Forecast Lower Owing to Widespread Flooding Heavy monsoon rainfall and multiple typhoons have innundated large areas of productive rice lands in Southeast Asia during September and October. Cultivated rice areas stretching from Burma in the west to the Philippines in the east have been negatively affected to varying degrees, with an estimated 2.6 million hectares or 6 percent of the region s total rice area experiencing flooded conditions. A favorable summer monsoon and tropical cyclone season has prevailed throughout the region since early May, bringing normal to above normal rainfall to most rice growing areas in the region. Thailand, Cambodia, and portions of Laos and the Philippines have experienced wellabove normal seasonal rainfall, especially over the past two months as remnants of tropical storms Nesat and Nanmadol brought drenching rains to broad sections of these countries. Recent episodes of largescale flooding reported in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines can be largely attributed to these lateseason tropical weather systems. Though harvested rice acreage will be reduced as a result of floodrelated Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 damage to standing crops, rice fields in nonaffected areas will have benefitted from the favorable seasonlong rainfall pattern. Crop yields in areas unaffected by flooding are forecast to have increased relative to last year as a result of near ideal moisture conditions. In addition, farmers in Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos typically grow two rice crops per year, with the dry season crop being irrigated. Rice production from these secondary harvests is expected to be significantly larger than last year, as growers attempt to recoup from losses suffered during the floods. As a result of these somewhat offsetting factors, regionwide total rice production in 2011/12 is currently estimated by USDA at million tons, down 2.0 million or 2 percent from last month, and down 1 percent from last year. Total rice area in Southeast Asia is estimated at million hectares, down 0.5 million or 1 percent from last month and 1 percent from last year. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at ) China Rice: Record Rice Crop Expected in 2011/12 The USDA estimates China s 2011/12 milled rice production at million tons (201.4 million tons, rough basis), up 2.0 million from last month and up 4.0 million or 3 percent from last year. The expected crop is slightly higher than the previous record set in 1997/98. China s rice area is estimated at million hectares, up 450,000 hectares or 1.4 percent from last month and up 2 percent from last year. Recent crop surveys indicate that rice area in Northeast China increased significantly in 2011/12 in response to high prices and strong demand for the locallygrown Japonica rice. Information from government and industry sources also report slightly higher planted area estimates for both the early and late rice crops in The estimated yield of 6.64 tons per hectare is nearly unchanged from last month, up 1 percent from last year, and close to the 10year trend. Harvesting of the early and single rice crops is complete, while the late rice harvest is underway and will end later this month. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at ). China Corn: 2011/12 Corn and Revised Upward The USDA estimates China s 2011/12 corn production at a record million tons, up 2.5 million or 1.4 percent from last month and up 4 percent from last year. Corn area for 2011/12 is estimated at 33.2 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.7 million or 2 percent from last year. has increased by more than 30 percent since 2002/03 for several reasons, including the rising demand for feed, the expansion of cornbased industrial production, and high corn profits compared to other crops. The estimated yield of 5.56 tons per hectare is up 2 percent from last year and matches the record set in 2008/09. Harvesting started in midseptember and is now complete. Except for some storm damage in southern China and abnormally cool and wet weather on parts of the North China Plain, weather conditions for the maturing 2011/12 corn crop in October were generally favorable, particularly in the Northeast. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at ). 2

3 Argentina Corn: Favorable Rainfall Boosts Corn Plantings and Prospects The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2011/12 at 29.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 6 percent from last month and up 6.5 million or 29 percent from last year. is estimated at 3.8 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.2 million from last year. is forecast at 7.63 tons per hectare, compared to the record 8.33 tons per hectare in and the fiveyear average of 7.08 tons per hectare. The current estimated yield is 22 percent above last year. Timely rains during the last three weeks in Buenos Aires, Cordoba, La Pampa, Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes have hastened corn planting and encouraged Argentine farmers to consider seeding more corn. Favorable prices, rotational benefits, and the expectation for better trade promotion of corn and wheat are encouraging many Argentine farmers to quickly finish corn seeding to take advantage of the current good soil moisture. Costs and margins for crops show corn as the top crop for income return. According to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture corn planting was 56 percent complete as of October 27, slightly behind last year s pacee when planting was 65 percent complete. Average abandonment for the past ten years is about 25 percent according to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, and has ranged from 8 percent in 1984/85 to 36 percent in 2008/09, a drought year. Good soil moisture reserves at both the surface and subsoil levels may ensure better corn establishment and less abandonment this season if timely rains continue. Despite persistent early warnings of La Niña and the potential that dryer conditions may return to the region, beneficial rain during October and early November along with promising weather forecasts for the remainder of November have instilled confidence for good corn germination and establishment. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at ). Mexico Corn: Adverse Weather Impacting 2011/12 The USDA estimates 2011/12 Mexican corn production at 20.5 million metric tons, down nearly 15 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. This reduction is attributed to adverse weather conditions including late rains, drought and frost that affected the spring/ summer crop, and low water reservoirs in Sinaloa, which accounts for a large share of the country s fall/winter corn production. Estimated yield for 2011/12 corn is expected to reach

4 tons per hectare, down 9.4 percent from last month because of dry conditions during pollination and a rare September frost at the end of grain filling. is forecast to drop to 6.65 million hectares, down 6 percent from previous month and down 5 percent from last year because of declines in the fall/winter planting intentions. The sown area for 2011/12 fall/winter corn is forecast to decline by nearly 14 percent from the five year average because of low water levels in the Sinaloa region. As of October 30, reserves in the Northwest region, which includes the Sinaloa reservoirs, are at 48 percent capacity compared to the five year average of 84 percent. Mexico produces two corn crops spring/summer and fall/winter. The fall/winter corn crop comprises 25 percent of total corn production. Sinaloa accounts for 75 percent of fall/winter corn crop production and the rest is from the Tamaulipas and Veracruz region. The Sinaloa corn crop is planted in December and January and harvested in May and June, and nearly all the corn in Sinaloa is irrigated. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent ) European Union Corn: Rises Owing to Record s in France of corn in the European Union (EU) for 2011/12 is estimated at 62.9 million tons, up 1.9 million tons or 3 percent from last month and up 7.1 million or 13 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged from last month at 8.7 million hectares but up 13 percent from the 8.0 million harvested last year. is estimated at a record 7.21 tons per hectare, an increase from 7.03 t/ha last month and 6.98 t/ha last year. A significant increase in planted area combined with a record yield is expected to produce the EU s second largest corn harvest. The largest individual contributor to the increase in the November EU corn estimate is France, also the largest corn producer within the EU. A wet summer (which followed a very dry spring) 4

5 increased yields in France from 9.0 t/ha last year to 10.0 t/ha this year, 9 percent above the five year average. France s 2011/12 corn crop is estimated at 15.2 million tons from 1.5 million hectares, which is a 7percent increase in production from last month and a 10percent increase from last season. In addition to the French contribution, Romania s production was increased 0.4 million tons because of higher yields due to favorable precipitation in much its main corn growing regions. The corn production estimate for Austria was also increased 0.3 million tons from last month to 2.3 million tons, due to new data on higher planted area. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell, at ) Argentina Soybeans: 2011/12 Forecast Higher than Last Year The USDA forecasts Argentine soybean production for 2011/12 at 52.0 million tons, down 2 percent from last month but up 6 percent from last year. is estimated at 19.0 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month but up 4 percent from last year. is forecast at 2.74 tons per hectare, compared to a record 2.99 tons per hectare for 2006/07 and the fiveyear average of 2.68 tons per hectare. This yield is currently estimated at 2 percent above last year. Moisture conditions have been favorable for the early planting in much of the prime soybean growing region. Rain in the central growing area, including northern and eastern regions in the province of Buenos Aires, northeastern La Pampa, northeastern and eastcentral Cordoba, much of Santa Fe and into Entre Rios, has compensated for dryness during the first half of October. Some areas of Marco Juarez in the province of Cordoba alone received nearly five inches. Northeastern Santa Fe, Chaco, southeastern Formosa and northwestern Corrientes received from two to four inches of rain in the later part of October. Rain during the first week of November benefited the drier Northwest region (Santiago del Estero into Salta and Jujuy). The generally favorable soil moisture situation in Argentina will allow for good crop establishment this month and into December. High corn prices have potentially reduced some soy planting intentions as net profitability currently favors corn. A possible overhaul this year of the grain market in Argentina also has farmers optimistic about planting more freely traded corn and wheat in the country once 40 percent of the production of these two grains is set aside to insure plentiful supplies for domestic use. This anticipated change may limit further soybean area expansion over the current estimate this season. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at ) 5

6 Brazil Soybean: Favorable Planting Conditions Increase Prospects for 2011/12 Brazil s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 75.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and down 0.5 million or 1 percent from last year. is forecast at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. is forecast at 3.0 tons per hectare, slightly below last year s record yield and adjusted towards the 10year trend yield due to favorable planting conditions and high investments in inputs. Beneficial early seasonal rainfall have made planting conditions nearly ideal throughout Brazil, with rains arriving two weeks early in Bahia state and the Mapito (Maranhão, Piauí, and Tocantins) region. Planting progress in Mato Grosso, the top producing state, is more than 60 percent complete and more than 20 percent ahead of the five year average. The main soybean planting month for Brazil is November with most planting activities to be completed by the end of December. Early soybean planting and attractive corn prices are encouraging farmers in Parana and Mato Grosso states to plant secondseason corn behind the harvested soy. Shortseason soybean varieties with improved yield potential continue to gain popularity in these states because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with secondseason corn or cotton crops. The La Niña weather forecast could adversely affect yield forecasts for soybeans in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, although last year s La Niña produced record yields from below average rainfall with favorable temporal distribution during the growing season. (For additional information, contact Curt Reynolds at

7 Kazakhstan Wheat: is Estimated to Reach Highest Level in Over 30 Years The USDA forecasts Kazakhstan 2011/12 wheat production at 21.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 11 percent from last month, and up 11.3 million or 116 percent from last year. is estimated at 13.8 million hectares compared to 14.5 million last year. is forecast at 1.52 tons per hectare (t/ha) compared to 1.38 t/ha last month, 0.67 t/ha last year, and the 5year average of 1.02 t/ha. The upward revision in production is based on harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicating record crop yield. The wheat crop in the major production region benefited from aboveaverage precipitation and favorable temperatures throughout the growing season, and satellitederived vegetative indices indicated outstanding crop conditions. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that the harvest was complete by the end of October, with output reported at 29.5 million tons in bunkerweight (prior to cleaning and drying) and yield up 103 percent from last year. Net weight can range from 84 to 92 percent of bunker weight. Wheat typically comprises about 80 to 85 percent of Kazakhstan s total grain production. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) 7

8 This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield and production are from the International Assessment Branch, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE500), November 9, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, December 9, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 8

9 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Acting Deputy Director Paul Provance Deputy Director/SIA Manager Curt Reynolds, PhD USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Agricultural Economist Paul Provance Program Analyst Mary Jackson COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South America Denise McWilliams PhD Europe and North Africa Bryan Purcell FSU12, Russia Mark Lindeman Canada, Mexico, Central America Arnella Trent and Caribbean China, East Asia Paulette Sandene South Asia, India, Australia Dath Mita PhD and New Zealand Africa, Brazil, Venezuela Curt Reynolds PhD Middle East and Southeast Asia Michael Shean Eastern Robert Tetrault Western Jim Crutchfield

10 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico EU27 Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 24.0 nr /11 prel nr 23.9 nr /12 proj. Oct nr 24.0 nr Nov nr 24.0 nr Coarse Grains 1, /11 prel. 1, /12 proj. Oct 1, Nov 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /11 prel nr nr /12 proj. Oct nr nr Nov nr nr Total Grains 2, , /11 prel. 2, , /12 proj. Oct 2, , Nov 2, , Oilseeds /11 prel /12 proj. Oct Nov Cotton nr nr nr /11 prel nr nr nr /12 proj. Oct nr nr nr Nov nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

11 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan EU France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

12 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina EU France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others

13 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico EU France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

14 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia EU Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

15 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia Canada EU Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

16 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign EU Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

17 Table 08 Sorghum,, and World Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt EU France Italy Others

18 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar EU Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

19 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan EU France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

20 Table 11 Soybean,, and World Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma EU Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

21 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov 2010/11 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia EU Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others

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