World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP December 2015 World Agricultural India Rapeseed: Lowest Planted in Five Years Projected India's 2015/16 rapeseed production is forecast at 6 million metric tons, down 1.15 million tons from last month and down 0.3 million tons from last year. harvested is forecast at 6.0 million hectares, down 1.0 million hectares from last month, and down 0.6 million hectares from last year. is forecast at 1.0 ton per hectare, up 4.6 percent from last year. Rapeseed planting in India is nearly complete in key growing states of Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh, and Haryana. Usually early sown varieties are planted in September and October and latematuring varieties are sown through mid-november. The Government of India s planting progress data, published mid-november, indicate that rapeseed plantings were at 2.45 million hectares, down 50 percent from the same time last year (4.89 million hectares). The slow Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 planting rate is reported across the rapeseed regions including Rajasthan, the state responsible for 42 percent of total rapeseed production. Typically 72 percent of rapeseed is irrigated. The planting shortfall is attributed to the early withdrawal of the monsoon, below average postmonsoon rainfall, and low water reservoirs. Nationally the cumulative post-monsoon rainfall (October to November) is reported at 28 percent lower than normal. Rainfall in the major rapeseed states (Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh, and Haryana) is at 8 percent below normal. The planting window typically closes by the end of November. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). Indonesia Palm Oil: El Niño Drought Reduces Prospects Indonesia s 2015/16 palm oil production is forecast at a record 33.0 million metric tons, down 2.0 million tons from last month and unchanged from last year. The current strong El Niño weather pattern suppressed rainfall over a wide swath of southeast Asia during the northern hemisphere summer in Rainfall in Indonesia s prime palm oil growing areas on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan was well below normal for the 5-month period from June through October The resulting drought stress is expected to cause crop yield declines during the 2015/16 marketing year (October 2015 through September 2016). Palm oil yields typically decline 4 to 12 months after a stress event has occurred. Rainfall in drought-affected regions was less than half of the minimum necessary to sustain normal yields. Roughly 60 percent of total mature acreage in Indonesia experienced 4 to 5 months of consecutive drought conditions. 2

3 Approximately 50 percent of total palm oil area is sown with trees that are less than 10 years old. These trees are reportedly more resilient to drought than those cultivated a decade or two ago, and are expected to experience less severe yield declines in 2015/16 than occurred in 1997/98. The last strong El Niño occurred in 1997/98 resulting in approximately 20 percent reduction in yields. It should also be noted that the current drought intensity in 2015 is much less severe than at the same point in Indonesian oil palm trees, therefore, have experienced less severe moisture stress than in (For more information, please contact Micheal.Shean@fas.usda.gov). Malaysia Palm Oil: El Niño Drought Forecast to Have Modest Impact USDA forecasts 2015/16 palm oil production in Malaysia at a record 20.5 million metric tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month, but up 0.6 million tons from last year. Malaysia s decrease in production is less severe than in Indonesia. The current strong El Niño weather pattern suppressed rainfall over a wide swath of Southeast Asia during the northern hemisphere summer in Rainfall in Malaysia s prime palm oil growing areas was below normal for the 5-month period from June through October The resulting drought stress is expected to cause crop yield declines during the current 2015/16 marketing year (October 2015 through September 2016). Palm oil yields typically decline 4 to 12 months after a stress event has occurred. Similarly to Indonesia, rainfall in Malaysia s drought affected regions was less-than-half of the minimum necessary to sustain normal yields, as well. Roughly 51 percent of total mature acreage in Malaysia experienced 4 to 5 consecutive months of drought conditions, though the severity of drought was considerably less than that occurring in Indonesia. Approximately 25 percent of total palm oil area is sown with trees that are less than 10 years old. Trees that are planted more recently tend to be more resilient to drought than those cultivated a decade or two ago, and are expected to experience less severe yield declines in 2015/16 than occurred in 1997/98. It should also be noted that the current drought intensity in 2015 is much less severe than at the same point in Malaysian oil palm trees, therefore, have experienced less severe moisture stress than in 1997, and yield declines are expected to be less severe. Palm oil yields declined approximately 12 percent in 1997/98 as a result of El Niño-induced drought. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov). India Rice: Early Harvest Returns Indicate Reduced Productivity India's 2015/16 rice production is forecast at 100 million metric tons, down 3.5 million tons from last month and down 4.8 million tons from last year. is forecast at 43 million hectares, the same as last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.49 tons per hectare, down 4.6 percent from last year. The kharif rice harvest is almost complete in the northwest major growing states and the harvest is in progress in the east and northeastern states. Approximately 85 percent of India s rice is grown during kharif season (southwest monsoon season, May through September) mainly in Punjab, Haryana, Utter Pradesh, and Bihar states. The rest of the rice crop is grown under 3

4 irrigation during the rabi season (winter season, November through March). It is estimated that 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated using canals and tube wells and almost all of the rabi rice is irrigated. A significant number of regions in the major rice growing states, especially in Northeast India (Utter Pradesh, and Bihar), experienced prolonged spells of drought during critical reproductive stages, leading to lower than expected yields. In September, the rice crop in the northern states of Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam entered critical reproductive stages under relatively poor conditions due to water deficits. At the end of September, rainfall in major rice growing regions was lower-than-normal, resulting in drier-than-normal crop conditions. Early kharif rice harvest reports indicate below normal yields across the rice growing regions, especially in Northeast India. USDA yield simulation models indicate reduced yield prospects compared to the previous year. The rabi season rice planting is in progress. The rabi crop is predominantly grown in the southeastern states of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. The early withdraw of the monsoon, and lower water reservoirs have resulted in slow sowing rate. According to the Government of India s planting progress reports in mid-november, rabi rice plantings were at a record low, 53 percent less than the same period last year. The postmonsoon cumulative rainfall (October through November) is reported at 28 percent lower-thannormal country wide and 60 percent below normal in the major rabi rice growing states in the east and northeast. (For more information contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). China Cotton: and Revised Downward China s 2015/16 cotton production is estimated at 24.3 million bales (5.3 million tons), down 0.7 million bales from last month and down 5.7 million bales from last year. is estimated at a record-low 3.45 million hectares, down 0.05 million hectares from last month and down 0.95 million hectares from last year. is estimated at 1,534 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from last month but up 3.5 percent from last year. 4

5 The area reduction in 2015/16 is related to recent changes in China s cotton support policy that were intended to deal with the country s massive stocks that had accumulated over several years. The new support policy resulted in lower profits and greater economic uncertainty for cotton farmers, who responded by shifting from cotton to other crops such as corn and rice, which offered higher returns. The largest area reductions took place in provinces located in the Yellow and Yangtze River regions of eastern China. Chinese government agencies and cotton industry groups have reported area reductions of 30 to 50 percent in these areas. Although the subsidies offered to farmers in Xinjiang province were similar to last year, lower market prices and other factors led to a reduction in planted area in Xinjiang as well. More than 75 percent of China s cotton is now produced in Xinjiang, where a favorable climate, high levels of mechanization, and fewer pest and disease problems result in the country s highest cotton yields. (For more information, please contact Paulette.Sandene@fas.usda.gov). Australia Cotton: Dryland Increases USDA forecasts Australia s 2015/16 cotton crop at 2.4 million bales, up 0.3 million bales from last month, and up 0.1 million bales from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 285,000 hectares, up 60,000 hectares from last month, and up 80,000 hectares from last year. is forecast at 1,833 kilograms per hectare. The higher planted area is attributed to an increase in dryland cotton plantings. For 2015/16 dryland area is expected to be 100,000 hectares; this will be the first time in three years that a significant area has been planted to dryland cotton. Dryland cotton planting tends to be more opportunistic and varies with seasonal weather forecast, planting conditions, and prices at sowing. Above-average rainfall during October and November has resulted in increased dryland planting. Irrigated cotton area is forecast to increase to 185,000 hectares, reflecting an increase in reservoir levels to last season s levels. Irrigated cotton area produces on average about 90 percent of Australia s total cotton production. s are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov). Pakistan Cotton: Early Market Arrivals Indicate Significantly Lower s USDA forecasts Pakistan's 2015/16 cotton production at 8.0 million 480-pound bales, down 1.0 million bales from last month and down 2.6 million bales from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.8 million hectares, down 0.05 million hectares from last month, and down

6 million hectares from last year. is estimated at 622 kilograms per hectare, down 9.5 percent from last month, and down 20.4 percent from last year. Harvest is almost complete in most regions as farmers prepare for wheat planting. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner s Association (PCGA), cumulative market arrivals through November are significantly lower compared to the same period last year. PCGA December 3 rd report indicated arrivals were down country wide 28 percent, with Punjab down approximately 40 percent and Sindh down approximately 3 percent. About 80 percent of the total Pakistan cotton crop is produced in Punjab province. The major factor contributing to the low productivity is the unprecedented infestation of white-fly and cotton leaf curl virus resulting in significant crop damage. The damage was worse than usual due to inadequate pest chemical control practices as farmers attempted to minimize production costs. In recent years farmers have faced increased prices of agricultural chemicals and relatively lower cotton prices. In addition, yield prospects are low due to the fact that farmers are cutting down the number of cotton pickings in order to plant wheat early and take advantage of relatively profitable wheat prices. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). Australia Wheat: Estimate Unchanged USDA estimates 2015/16 Australia wheat production at 26.0 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 2.3 million tons from last year. is forecast at 13.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month and from last year. is forecast at 1.88 tons per hectare which is 3.0 percent below the 5-year average of 1.93 tons per hectare. Generally favorable growing conditions from May (when sowing begins) until August were followed by dryness from mid-september through mid-october. The lower rainfall and above average temperatures stressed the wheat crop as it entered heading and grain fill stages, thus lowering yield expectations in southern New South Wales and parts of Western Australia. In Victoria, these conditions have affected the entire state, but particularly the Wimmera and Mallee regions where soil moisture reserves are low. As of mid-december wheat harvest is about half complete. Harvesting starts in central Queensland during August and progresses down the east coast to Victoria, finishing during January. On the west coast, the wheat harvest extends from October through January. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov). India Soybean: Low Record s Significantly Reduce USDA estimates 2015/16 India soybean production at 8 million metric tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, and down 0.7 million tons from last year. The decrease is attributed to continued reports of deteriorating yield prospects. Harvested area is estimated at million hectares, same as last month, up 6.8 percent from last year, and the second largest on record. is estimated at 0.69 tons per hectare, down 16.3 percent from last month, down 14 percent from last year, and is the lowest in 10 years. India s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif season (southwest monsoon season, June through September) under rainfed conditions. Most of the soybean crop is grown in northwestern and central India where the main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 6

7 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). The optimum planting period is typically the third week of June to the second week of July. The majority of 2015/16 crop was planted during this period. The 2015/16 soybean season started favorably with timely arrival of the monsoon rainfall. Overall, all major soybean growing areas received abundant June rainfall that resulted in the second largest planting area and favorable plant establishment. Most regions in Maharashtra and Rajasthan received below average rainfall in July and August, but during the same period most areas in Madhya Pradesh received above average rainfall. Low rainfall in some areas and aboveaverage rainfall in others resulted in similar outcomes: below average yield. Overall yield is estimated at a 10-year record low. Harvest is almost complete. (For more information contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). South Africa Corn: Planting Delayed due to Drought South Africa s 2015/16 corn production is forecast at 12.0 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month but up 1.2 million tons from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and slightly down from last year. is forecast at 4.0 tons per hectare, up 13 percent from last year s yield of 3.54 tons per hectare and near the 5-year average yield of 4.02 tons per hectare. Sparse rainfall during October and November has delayed corn planting in South Africa. Planting has been delayed by 40 days or more in the eastern corn belt of KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and eastern Free State provinces. Planting in the eastern corn belt typically begins in early October, after sufficient rainfall has been received. Satellite imagery from Landsat-8, and the MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites, however, indicates that very little vegetation has emerged by early December, confirming that planting progress and plant emergence is greatly behind schedule. Dryness in South Africa is often associated with a strong El Niño. During the past 33 years, strong to very strong El Niño conditions occurred in 1982/83, 1992/93, and 1997/98, and corn yields were correspondingly reduced from trend yields by 17 to 61 percent. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov). 7

8 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-548), December 10, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, January 12, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 8

9 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Vacant Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Vacant

10 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

11 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others Million metric tons--- Wheat /15 prel /16 proj. Nov Dec Coarse Grains 1, /15 prel. 1, /16 proj. Nov 1, Dec 1, Rice, Milled /15 prel /16 proj. Nov Dec Total Grains 2, , /15 prel. 2, , /16 proj. Nov 2, , Dec 2, , Oilseeds /15 prel /16 proj. Nov Dec Cotton /15 prel /16 proj. Nov Dec / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

12 Table 02 Wheat,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada South America Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

13 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union South America Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

14 Table 04 Corn,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World , United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

15 Table 05 Barley,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa South America Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

16 Table 06 Oats,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada South America Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

17 Table 07 Rye,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada South America Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

18 Table 08 Sorghum,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico South America Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

19 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in (Metric tons per hectare) 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

20 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

21 Table 11 Soybean,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

22 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec 2014/15 Nov Dec MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others