FCC Ag Economics. Trade Ranking Report: Agriculture

Transcription

1 FCC Ag Economics Trade Ranking Report: Agriculture Published November 7, 2017

2 1 Introduction There s good reason to be optimistic about the future of Canada s agri-food. Demand for agricultural commodities and manufactured food products continues to grow. Emerging economies like China and India are dominating import growth thanks to their population growth. In the last decade, other markets have also shown potential as agricultural and food trading partners. They re markets where more households now have more income, which means they re eating more, especially value-added products. Global agricultural and food trade rankings over the last decade are a barometer of how the world is changing. Between 2007 and 2014, Canada ranked 12th or 13th in world of manufactured food products. That ranking has since improved to 11th, with Canada jumping ahead of New Zealand and Malaysia. Canada has also ranked as the world s fifth-largest exporter of agricultural commodities since From 2007 to 2009, Canada ranked 3rd globally, and moved to 4th place between 2010 and As a top trader of both agricultural commodities and manufactured food, Canada is poised to push even higher in world trade rankings, with increased of agricultural commodities and food products that are highly valued or have experienced world-leading growth since The world s appetite for pulses, soybeans, and fresh fish represents opportunities for Canadian agricultural exporters, while global demand for meat, food preparations, malt, coffee and bread may signal great potential taking shape in the next era for Canadian food. How we collected the data Global trade: We started with 68 agricultural commodities coded according to the Harmonized System (HS) 4-digit level from the following categories: HS01 (live animals), HS03 (fish and crustaceans), HS06 (live plants), HS07 (edible vegetables), HS08 (edible fruit), HS10 (cereals), and HS12 (oilseeds). We selected the 44 products whose total export values in 2016 accounted for at least 0.5% of the world s of agricultural commodities. Canada s trade: We started with the same 68 products from the listed HS categories. Of those, 27 products had export values in 2016 accounting for at least 0.5% of Canada s total agricultural. We excluded food products that have grown more quickly, but represented very small values. All trade data were extracted September 2017 from UN Comtrade. The time is right for Canada to increase its presence in global agri-food export markets. The FCC Ag Economics Trade Rankings reports for agriculture and manufactured food products provide perspective on that goal.

3 2 Global rankings: Agricultural commodity 2016 In 2016, Canada had the world s fifth-highest agricultural commodity export values (Figure 1). Canadian operations exported US$24.6 billion worth of agricultural commodities, accounting for 5.3% of the world s total agricultural commodity in 2016, valued at US$461.8 billion. The U.S., China, and Netherlands were the top exporters of agricultural products in 2016, a ranking they ve maintained since The three countries together accounted for 29.7% of world of agricultural products in Canada fell from 3rd to 5th place in 2012 due to the growing presence of China and Brazil in world markets. Brazil increased their of corn and soybeans, pushing them to the 4th-place position, while China more than doubled their agricultural between 2007 and Figure 1: Canada was the world s 5th-largest agricultural commodity exporter in 2016 Canada 5.3% Brazil 5.4% Netherlands 6.8% China 7.3% USA 15.5% USA 15.5% China 7.3% Netherlands 6.8% Other 59.6% Brazil 5.4% Canada 5.3%

4 3 World s highest-valued agricultural commodity 2016 Canada was a relatively large player in the export of agricultural commodities with the highest overall dollar values in 2016 world trade. The top 15 agricultural accounted for US$287.4 billion, or 62.2% of the world s total agricultural commodity export values in 2016 (Figure 2). Canadian of these 15 commodities totaled US$14.9 billion. Canada doesn t produce and/or export rice, citrus fruit, and other nuts three agricultural commodities that were included in 2016 s global 15 top-valued. Canada s strong showing in global trade instead comes from its Top 3 ranked position among world exporters of eleven agricultural commodities (canola seed, wheat, rye, oats, buckwheat, linseed, plants for perfumery, crustaceans, pulses, fresh fish and bovine animals). While these commodities are important for Canada, rye, oats, buckwheat and linseed remain relatively small markets. See Appendix A for the coded HS categories included in Figures 2-7. Figure 2: World s highest-valued agricultural commodity 2016 World s top $ Soybeans ($51.5) Wheat and meslin ($33.4) Corn ($26.0) Crustaceans ($20.9) Fish, frozen ($19.7) Fish, fresh or chilled ($18.7) Fish fillets and other fish meat ($18.3) Other nuts, fresh or dried ($15.9) Rice ($14.2) Citrus fruit, fresh or dried ($13.2) Other vegetables ($12.2) Mollusks ($11.7) Pulses ($11.4) Other fruit, fresh ($10.7) Apples, pears and quinces ($9.4) (Global 2016 export values in billions of USD)

5 4 World s fastest-growing agricultural commodity : Among the commodities of which Canada ranks as a Top 3 exporter, canola seed, fresh fish, pulses and plants used for perfumery were also commodities that grew the fastest in global trade between 2007 and 2016 (Figure 3). The average annual growth rates of the world s 15 fastest-growing agricultural commodities ranged between 7.0% (fresh fish) to 12.1% (dried vegetables). During this period, global demand grew for plants used for perfumery (with an average annual growth of 7.4%), canola seed (10.9%), and pulses (11.4%). Commodities that were both global top-dollar (Figure 2) and the world s fastest-growing during the last decade (Figure 3) included soybeans, fresh fish, pulses, other nuts and other fresh fruit. Figure 3: World s 15 fastest-growing agricultural commodity : World s fastest growing Soybeans ($51.5) Dried vegetables ($4.8) Pulses ($11.4) Canola seeds ($8.8) Sunflower seeds ($3.2) Dates, figs ($9.4) Coconuts, Brazil and cashew nuts ($4.1) Other oil seeds, oleaginous fruits ($2.7) Fish, fresh or chilled ($18.7) Other nuts, fresh or dried ($15.9) Other fruits, fresh ($10.7) Ground-nuts ($2.5) Onions ($7.1) Swedes, mangolds ($2.5) Plants primarily used in perfumery ($3.0) (Global 2016 export values in billions of USD)

6 5 Canada s highest-valued agricultural commodity 2016 Those agricultural commodities making up Canada s 15 highest-valued totaled US$21.1 billion in 2016, accounting for 85.0% of all Canadian agricultural and 4.6% of overall global of agricultural commodities (Figure 4). As one of Canada s highest-valued export markets (US$4.3 billion in 2016), canola seed expanded between 2007 and 2016, but remains smaller than the wheat and meslin market. Of the other agricultural commodities that make up a significant portion of Canadian agriculture, several stand out for their importance in world trade. Wheat, crustaceans, fish fillets, mollusks, frozen fish and other vegetables were among Canada s, and the world s, highestvalued agricultural commodities traded in Pulses, soybeans, and fresh fish were the only three commodities that counted among Canada s highest-valued (Figure 4), the world s highest-valued (Figure 2) and the world s fastest-growing between 2007 and 2016 (Figure 3). Figure 4: Canada s highest-valued agricultural commodity 2016 Canada s top $ Bovine animals, live ($1.1) Other vegetables ($0.55) Tomatoes, fresh or chilled ($0.37) Oats ($0.36) Pigs, live ($0.33) Soybeans ($1.9) Wheat and meslin ($4.5) Corn ($0.33) Crustaceans ($2.4) Fish, frozen ($0.32) Fish, fresh or chilled ($0.85) Fish fillets and other fish meat ($0.33) Mollusks ($0.33) Pulses ($3.1) Canola seeds ($4.3) (Canada s export values in billions of USD)

7 6 Canada s fastest-growing agricultural : Many of Canada s fastest-growing aren t growing quickly at the global level (e.g., potatoes, tomatoes, etc.). Other quickly-growing commodities for Canada represent smaller export markets (e.g., linseed) or are agricultural products of which Canada is a relatively small exporter (Figure 5). For example, Canada was the world s fourth-largest exporter of soybeans in The commodity was Canada s fifth highest-valued agricultural commodity export, totaling US$1.9 billion. Despite its relative importance to Canada, our soybean represented 3.7% of the global soybean market. Trade in soybeans is one of the most robust agricultural commodity markets. Among all agricultural commodities, soybeans had the world s fourth-highest average annual growth (10.8%) between 2007 and Its 2016 global export values totaled US$51.5 billion, or 64.0% of all oilseeds trade. It accounted for 11.2% of total agricultural commodity trade. Growth in Canada s of several other commodities has arisen from growing global demand. Canadian of other fruits, pulses, fresh fish and canola, each a commodity with some of the highest global growth rates since 2007, represent large and/or expanding markets. Figure 5: Canada s 15 fastest-growing agricultural : Commodity Corn Soybeans Plants used primarily in perfumery Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits Pulses Canola seeds Cucumbers and gherkins Other vegetables Other fruit Linseed Potatoes Crustaceans Tomatoes Fish, fresh or chilled Fish fillets and other fish meat Export values, 2016 (USD, billions) $0.33 $1.9 $0.19 $0.2 $3.1 $4.3 $0.2 $0.55 $0.17 $0.29 $0.23 $2.4 $0.37 $0.85 $0.33 Average Annual % change, % 11.4% 10.9% 10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 9.2% 8.9% 8.8% 8.0% 5.4% 5.1% 4.6% 4.4% 2.8%

8 7 Figure 6: Finding the sweet spot for Canadian World s top $ Rice Citrus fruit, fresh or dried Apples, pears and quinces Corn Mollusks Fish, frozen Crustaceans Other vegetables Wheat and meslin Fish fillets and other fish meat Bovine animals, live Tomatoes, fresh or chilled Oats Pigs, live Canada s top $ Other nuts, fresh or dried Other fruit, fresh Fish, fresh or chilled Soybeans Pulses Canola seeds World s fastest growing Onions Dates, figs Plants primarily used in perfumery Coconuts, Brazil and cashew nuts Other oil seeds, oleaginous fruits Swedes, mangolds Dried vegetables Sunflower seeds Ground-nuts In summary, canola seed is a Canadian strength in agricultural commodity and canola seed are growing at the global level. Canada is also a top exporter of wheat, corn, crustaceans, other vegetables, fish fillets, mollusks, and frozen fish each representing a large global market. Pulses, soybeans, and fresh fish are current sweet spots for Canadian exporters: each is a world top-dollar export, a Canadian top-dollar export and among the fastest-growing in the world.

9 8 Canada s revealed comparative advantage Canada s revealed comparative advantage Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) is one way to define the sectors in which Canada has an advantage, relative to the competition, in being able to meet potential export opportunities. Canada has a comparative advantage in 18 different agricultural commodities (Figure 7). The majority of those represent export markets that are neither large nor have grown quickly in the last decade. However, Canada may be particularly well-poised to exploit opportunities to grow of wheat, crustaceans, canola seed, other oil seeds, and plants used in perfumery. Pulses are also well-positioned because Canada has a comparative advantage, it is one of our fastest-growing and is a fast-growing, highly-valued export at the world level. An exporting country is considered to have a comparative advantage over other countries if its of a commodity represent a greater share of its total of that commodity s class of goods than it does in global trade flows. How it works In 2016: Canada s wheat were valued at US$4.5 billion. Canada s of total agricultural commodities were valued at US$25 billion. Wheat therefore represented 18.0% of Canada s total agricultural commodity ($4.5 billion/$25 billion). World wheat were valued at US$33 billion. World of agricultural commodities were valued at US$461 billion. Wheat therefore represented 7.2% of the world s total agricultural ($33 billion/$461 billion). Because wheat represented a greater share of Canada s agricultural commodity than it did at the world trade level, Canada has a revealed comparative advantage of 2.5 (18:7.2). We defined Canada s revealed comparative advantages for all 68 agricultural commodities.

10 9 Figure 7: Canada s comparative advantage in growing agricultural commodity World s top $ Citrus fruit, fresh or dried Apples, pears and quinces Other vegetables Fish fillets and other fish meat Mollusks Fish, frozen Corn Rice Crustaceans Wheat and meslin Canada s RCA Oats Barley Pigs, live Buckwheat Aquatic invertebrates Linseed Rye Potatoes Fruit and nuts Cucumber and gherkins Animals, other Bovine animals, live Other fruit, fresh Other nuts, fresh or dried Soybeans Fish, fresh or chilled Pulses Plants primarily used in perfumery Canola seeds Other oil seeds, oleaginous fruits World s fastest growing Dried vegetables Sunflower seeds Dates, figs Swedes, mangolds Coconuts, Brazil and cashew nuts Ground-nuts Onions Canada produces many raw agricultural commodities that are currently either highly valued global or are experiencing growing demand in world markets. That s a key strategic advantage as global growth in household income allows consumers to, first, eat more calories and, eventually, change the composition of those calories. A further strategic advantage lies in Canadian production and export of vegetable oils, red meat and plant-based proteins. Growing world demand for these products will help Canada strengthen its current ranking as a leading exporter of manufactured food products. Learn more about the economic events that could impact our industry and your bottom line. Our team of economists and researchers share their unique perspectives in the reports, videos, blogs and articles available on our website. fcc.ca/ageconomics Follow the team on Twitter J.P. Martha Leigh Craig Amy

11 10 Appendix A: Figure 2 includes: HS1201- Soybeans, HS1001- Wheat and meslin, HS1005- Corn, HS0306- Crustaceans, HS0303- Fish, frozen, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled, HS0304- Fish fillets and other fish meat, HS0802- Other nuts, fresh or dried, HS1006- Rice, HS0805- Citrus fruit, fresh or dried, HS0709- Other vegetables, HS0307- Mollusks, HS0713- Pulses, HS0810- Other fruit, fresh, HS0808- Apples, pears, and quinces Figure 3 includes: HS0712- Dried vegetables, HS0713- Pulses, HS1205- Canola seeds, HS1201- Soybeans, HS1202- Ground nuts, HS0802- Other nuts, fresh or dried, HS1206- Sunflower seeds, HS0703- Onions, HS0804- Dates, figs, HS1214- Swedes, mangolds, HS0810- Other fruit, fresh, HS0801- Coconuts, brazil, and cashew nuts, HS1211- Plants primarily used in perfumery, HS1207- Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled Figure 4 includes: HS1205- Canola seeds, HS1001- Wheat and meslin, HS0713- Pulses, HS0306- Crustaceans, HS1201- Soybeans, HS0102- Bovine animals, live, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled, HS0709- Other vegetables, HS1004- Oats, HS1005- Corn, HS0304- Fish fillets and other fish meat, HS0103- Pigs, live, HS0307- Mollusks, HS0303- Fish, frozen, HS0702- Tomatoes, fresh or chilled Figure 5 includes: HS1005- Corn, HS1201- Soybeans, HS1211- Plants primarily used in perfumery, HS1207- Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, HS0713- Pulses, HS1205- Canola seeds, HS0707- Cucumbers and gherkins, HS0709- Other vegetables, HS0810- Other fruit, HS1204- Linseed, HS0701- Potatoes, HS0306- Crustaceans, HS0702- Tomatoes, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled, HS0304- Fish fillets and other fish meat Figure 6 includes: HS0712- Dried vegetables, HS0713- Pulses, HS1205- Canola seeds, HS1201- Soybeans, HS1202- Ground nuts, HS0802- Other nuts, fresh or dried, HS1206- Sunflower seeds, HS0703- Onions, HS0804- Dates, figs, HS1214- Swedes, mangolds, HS0810- Other fruit, fresh, HS0801- Coconuts, brazil, and cashew nuts, HS1211- Plants primarily used in perfumery, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled, HS1001- Wheat and meslin, HS0306- Crustaceans, HS0102- Bovine animals, live, HS0709- Other vegetables, HS1004- Oats, HS1005- Corn, HS0304- Fish fillets and other fish meat, HS0103- Pigs, live, HS0307- Mollusks, HS0303- Fish, frozen, HS1006- Rice, HS0805- Citrus fruit, fresh or dried, HS1207- Other oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, HS0808- Apples, pears, and quinces, HS0702- Tomatoes, fresh or chilled Figure 7 includes: HS1201- Soybeans, HS1001- Wheat and meslin, HS1005- Corn, HS0306- Crustaceans, HS0303- Fish, frozen, HS0302- Fish, fresh or chilled, HS0304- Fish fillets and other fish meat, HS0802- Other nuts, fresh or dried, HS1006- Rice, HS0805- Citrus fruit, fresh or dried, HS0709- Other vegetables, HS0307- Mollusks, HS0713- Pulses, HS0810- Other fruit, fresh, HS0808- Apples, pears, and quinces, HS0712- Dried vegetables, HS1205- Canola seeds, HS1202- Ground nuts, HS1206- Sunflower seeds, HS0703- Onions, HS0804- Dates, figs, HS1214- Swedes, mangolds, HS0801- Coconuts, brazil, and cashew nuts, HS1211- Plants primarily used in perfumery, HS1004- Oats, HS0103- Pigs, live, HS1204- Linseed, HS0811- Fruit and nuts, HS1002- Rye, HS0106- Animals, other, HS0102- Bovine animals, live, HS1003- Barley, HS1008- Buckwheat, HS0707- Cucumbers and gherkins, HS0701- Potatoes, HS0308- Aquatic invertebrates, HS1207- Other oilseeds and oleaginous fruits

12 40693 E RH For more agriculture economics insights, visit fcc.ca/ageconomics Cette publication est également offerte en français.