Outline. o Global Dairy Overview o U.S Milk Production o Dairy Product Production, Stocks, Trade o Outlook. Copyright 2017 Daily Dairy Report, Inc.
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2 Outline o Global Dairy Overview o U.S Milk Production o Dairy Product Production, Stocks, Trade o Outlook 2
3 Global Milk Production: Select Countries (in billion pounds) In Billion Pounds Source: USDA FAS Source: USDA FAS 11
4 (Billion Pounds) Global Milk Production: Select Countries Source: USDA FAS 4
5 (Million Pounds) Milk Production: AU&NZ, AR&BR, EU,US 4,000 Year-over-year Change 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Jan 14 Jun Jan 15 Jun Jan 16 Jun Jan 17 Jun (1,000) (2,000) Source: Daily Dairy Report 5
6 YOY Change in Milk Production: US/EU/Oceania YOY Change in Global Milk Production 4,500 European Union New Zealand USA 3,500 2,500 1, (500) (1,500) Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2014 Source: USDA FAS 6
7 Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Trade Production SMP WMP Butter Cheese Billion Pounds Source: USDA FAS 7
8 (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Butter Cheese 12,000 Production Exports 25,000 Production Exports 10,000 20,000 8,000 15,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 2,000 5,000 - India EU 28 U.S. N.Z. - EU 28 U.S. Aus N.Z. Source: USDA FAS 8 16
9 (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) Global Dairy Product Production and Exports Nonfat Dry Milk Whole Milk Powder 4,000 Production Exports 3,500 Production Exports 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,500 1, U.S. EU 28 India N.Z. Aus - NZ China EU 28 Brazil Arg. Source: USDA FAS 9 17
10 U.S. and Regional Milk Production
11 U.S. Milk Production U.S. WPI Milk 90 (30-day Production month) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Source: USDA 11
12 U.S. Milk Production Data WPI Milk 90 (30-day Production month) U.S. Dairy Cows (in million head) WPI 90 (30-day Production month) U.S. Milk Per Cow (30-day month, in lbs.) 9.5 2, ,950 1, , ,800 1, ,700 Source: USDA 12
13 TX CO UT KS IA SD NM MI MN AZ IN VA OH PAIL WI ID NY VT WA FL OR CA TX NM CO UT KS SD MI AZ IA MN IN NY PA OH IL WI VT VA FL WA ID CA OR U.S. Milk Production: Key States 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% September YOY Change in Milk Production 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% September September YTD Change YOY Change in Milk in Production Milk Production 13
14 Pennsylvania Pennsylvania U.S. WPI Milk 90 (30-day Milk Production Production month) Pennsylvania U.S. WPI Milk 90 (30-day Production Milk month) Per Cow (30-day month, in lbs.) 1, ,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1, Pennsylvania U.S. WPI Milk 90 (30-day Production Dairy month) Cows (in thousand head) o PA Overview o Milk Production YTD Sept up 1.8% o Dairy Herd Stable at 525,000 Source: USDA 14
15 (Percent) More Butterfat CA ID MI MN NM NY PA SD TX WI U.S. 15
16 ($/Cwt) 2016 All Milk 3.5% BF $17.00 $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 $13.00 CA MI AZ ID NM PA U.S. Avg MN TX WI NY SD VT 16
17 Income Over Feed Key States Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) $12 $9 $6 $10.88 $6.40 $6.74 California $9.14 $7.15 $7.85 $8.70 $8.35 $18 $15 $12 $9 $14.35 $9.84 $9.42 Wisconsin $11.95 $10.33 $10.18 $10.34 $10.92 $3 $6 $3 $ J/F17 M/A M/J J/A Sep $ J/F17 M/A M/J J/A Sep Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) Regional Dairy Production Margin (in $ per cwt.) $18 $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $14.50 $8.87 $7.97 New York $10.60 $8.77 $8.09 $9.48 $9.90 $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $12.42 $7.84 $8.09 Idaho $10.52 $8.59 $9.06 $9.07 $9.61 $ J/F17 M/A M/J J/A Sep $ J/F17 M/A M/J J/A Sep 17
18 Dairy Products Production, Stocks and Trade
19 U.S. Cheese Production & Stocks WPI 90 (30-day month) Total Cheese Production 1,060 1,040 1,020 1,
20 American Cheese Production & Stocks WPI 90 (30-day month) WPI 90 (30-day month) American Cheese WPI 90 (30-day month) American Cheese Stocks (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 20
21 Cheddar and Mozzarella Production WPI 90 (30-day month) WPI 90 (30-day month) Cheddar Cheese WPI 90 (30-day month) Mozzarella Source: USDA 21
22 Global Cheese Prices Weekly World Cheese Price Title (in USD per lb.) $2.00 Oceania German (Edam) CME Block $1.60 $1.20 $0.80 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Daily Dairy Report 22
23 Cheese Exports and Imports U.S. WPI 90 (30-day month) Exports U.S. Cheese (30-day month, (in million & in Curd lbs.) million lbs.) Exports U.S. WPI 90 (30-day month) Imports U.S. Cheese (30-day month, (in& million in Curd lbs.) million lbs.) Imports Source: USDA 23
24 Butter Production & Stocks U.S. Butter Production U.S. Butter Stocks (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 24
25 Global Butter Prices Weekly World Butter Prices (in USD per lb.) $3.90 German CME GDT $3.40 $2.90 $2.40 $1.90 $1.40 $0.90 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Daily Dairy Report 25
26 Butter & Milkfat Exports and Imports U.S. WPI Butter 90 (30-day - Imports month) U.S. Butter &(in million Milkfat lbs.) Exports WPI 90 (30-day month) WPI 90 (30-day month) U.S. Butterfat Imports Source: USDA 26
27 NDM/SMP Production & Stocks U.S. NDM and SMP Production WPI NDM 90 (30-day & SMP month) WPI 90 (30-day month) U.S. Manufacturers' Stocks of NDM (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 27
28 Metric Tons EU Stocks = 1/3 of U.S. Production 300,000 Cumulative SMP Offered into European Intervention 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Daily Dairy Report 28
29 Nonfat Dry Milk Global Prices World International Weekly Price SMP for Price SMP (in USD per lb.) $1.75 NDPSR eq SMP Oceania German GDT $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: USDA 29
30 NDM/SMP Exports WPI 90 (30-day month) WPI 90 (30-day month) U.S. NDM/SMP Exports WPI 90 (30-day month) U.S. NDM/SMP Exports: YTD Sept All Rights Reserved 30
31 U.S. Production: Whey and WPC % U.S. Whey Powder Production U.S. Whey U.S. WPC Whey Powder WPC WPI Powder 90 ( % Production (30-day(Human) month) Protein) (Food Grade) WPI 90 (30-day month) U.S. U.S. WPC WPC ( % ( % Protein) Source: USDA 31
32 U.S. Stocks: Whey and WPC % Dry U.S. WPC Whey WPC U.S. WPI US Lactose ( % Milk Powder (Food 90 Lactose (30-day Production Supply Stocks (Human) Protein) month) Whey (Food Grade) Inventory Stocks (30-day( (in month, million in lbs.) million lbs.) WPC ( %) Stocks WPC U.S. WPC (25%-49.9% ( % WPC U.S. WPI Lactose 90 ( % (25.5 Lactose (30-day Stocks %) month) Protein) Inventory Stocks (30-day( (in month, million in lbs.) million lbs.) (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 32
33 U.S. Stocks: WPC % and WPI WPC WPC Stocks (50%-89.9% WPI ( %) 90 of (30-day American %) month) WPC ( % U.S. WPC Protein) Stocks Inventory Cheese Stocks Stocks (30-day (in month, million in lbs.) million lbs.) (in million lbs.) WPI Stocks U.S. WPC WPC U.S. WPI Lactose WPI 90 ( % Lactose WPI 90 (30-day Inventory Stocks 90 month) Protein) (30-day (in month, million in lbs.) million lbs.) (in million lbs.) Source: USDA 33
34 Dairy Markets Outlook
35 Cheese and Butter Price Outlook Cheese Prices (in USD per lb.) Butter Prices (in USD per lb.) Futures 11/15/17 Forecast 5 year avg $2.75 Futures 11/15/17 Forecast 5 year avg $1.90 $1.70 $2.50 $2.25 $1.50 $2.00 $1.30 Nov-17 Feb-18 May Aug Nov $1.75 Nov-17 Feb-18 May Aug Nov Source: Daily Dairy Report 35
36 NDM and Whey Price Outlook NFDM Prices (in USD per lb.) Whey Prices (in USD per lb.) Futures 11/15/17 Forecast 5 year avg. Futures 11/15/17 Forecast 5 year avg $1.50 $0.60 $1.30 $0.50 $1.10 $0.40 $0.90 $0.30 $0.70 Nov-17 Feb-18 May Aug Nov $0.20 Nov-17 Feb-18 May Aug Nov Source: Daily Dairy Report 36
37 Class III Outlook Class III Milk (in USD per cwt.) $20 Futures as of 11/15 Forecast 5 Yr. Avg. $18 $16 $14 $12 NOV 17 FEB MAY AUG NOV 37
38 Class IV Outlook Class IV MIlk (in USD per cwt.) $18 Futures as of 11/15 Forecast 5 Yr. Avg. $16 $14 $12 NOV 17 FEB MAY AUG NOV 38
39 Key Points o Global milk production is growing, largely due to greater YOY output from Europe and the United States. o U.S. dairy herd is large and feed is cheap but YOY U.S. milk production is growing at a slower rate. The ability to grow will depend upon available processing capacity. o The have s vs. have nots 39
40 Key Points o Dairy product price convergence will reduce import opportunities to the United States o Global dairy product demand improving watch China and Mexico o Weak Euro/strong US$ and ample production will create export challenges for U.S. products o 2018 could be a more challenging year in terms of profitability, which could set up an interesting farm bill 40
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