Pecan Shellers Association Presentation. Presented by:

Transcription

1 Pecan Shellers Association Presentation Presented by:

2 Session Objectives Industry Update Consumer Trends Menu Trends Price Trends Opportunities For Nuts Conclusion 2

3 Industry Update 3

4 Disposable Personal Income Low but Remains Positive Jun '07 Oct Feb Jun '08 Oct Feb Jun '09 Oct Feb Jun '10 Oct Feb Jun '11 Oct Feb Jun '12 Oct Feb Jun '13 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% % Real Change vs. Prior Year June % 4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 Jul '07 Nov Mar Jul '08 Nov Mar Jul '09 Nov Mar Jul '10 Nov Mar Jul '11 Nov Mar Jul '12 Nov Mar Jul '13 Index Consumer Confidence Still Trending Lower 120 Jul Jul Feb Low confidence resulting in less spending Base: 1966 = 100 Source: Conference Board 5

6 Unemployment Rates* Still Well Above Pre-recession Levels Jul '07 Nov Mar Jul '08 Nov Mar Jul '09 Nov Mar Jul '10 Nov Mar Jul '11 Nov Mar Jul '12 Nov Mar Jul '13 20% 18% July 2007 July % 14% 14.0% Unemployment and Underemployment 12% 10% 8% 8.3% 7.4% Unemployment 6% 4% 4.7% 2% 0% *Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6

7 Same-Store Sales Growth Slow but Positive % Change vs. Previous Year 6% 4% 2% 0% 2Q 2013 LSR 2.1% CDR 1.7% -2% -4% -6% -8% Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Q2'12 Q2'13 7 Source: Public Company Reports, Technomic

8 Fast Casual Is Still the Bright Spot in the Restaurant Industry Fast Casual 7.3% 13.2% Quick Service Polished Casual Casual Dining 0.7% 1.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% Family Style -1.3% 0.0% 1 Year Growth - '12 5 Year CAGR - '07 - '12 Growth rates nominal. Source: Technomic Top 500 Reports 8

9 Food Quality/Craveability Fast Casual in an Attractive Position Polished CDR $20-50 Fast Casual $8-$12 Traditional CDR $12-20 QSR <$8 MSR $8-13 Price 9

10 Consumer Trends 10

11 Nuts By Definition A nut is a fruit composed of a hard shell and a seed, where the hard-shelled fruit does not open to release the seed Wikipedia Nuts have it all! Rich in energy, protein, packed with antioxidants, vitamins, minerals and much discussed omega-3 fatty acids. Crunchy yet buttery, wonderfully delicious nuts are wonderful gifts to humankind by Mother Nature Umesh Rudrappa, 11

12 Two of Top Five Salad Toppings are Nuts Which other salad toppings would you consider ordering Croutons 62 Eggs 60 Almonds 44 Cashews 38 Avocado 37 Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2012 Technomic Salad Consumer Trend Report 12

13 Nuts Are Well-Positioned For Health Halo Perception Which of the following make a dessert better-for-you? Real or Natural Made From Scratch 41% 39% Low in Sugar 33% Low in Calories No Artificial Sweeteners Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2013 Technomic Dessert Consumer Trend Report 28% 32% 13

14 Some Allergens Still Affect Many Consumers What are You Allergic To? Shellfish 33% Dairy/Milk Peanut 24% 23% Wheat/Glutens 19% Tree Nut Soy 14% 13% Base: 1,500 Consumers currently enrolled in College or University Source: 2013 Technomic College & University Consumer Trend Report 14

15 Overall, consumers indicate a net gain in snack consumption compared to two years ago In which ways has your snacking behavior changed in the last two years? 42% % Overall I am snacking more frequently 30% 38% 28% 25% 14% 20% I am snacking less frequently 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% Base: 1,500 Consumers Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+

16 Snack consumption is relatively high throughout the day, and it peaks in the midafternoon What time of day do you typically have a snack? Midmorning after breakfast but before lunch 30% 39% Midafternoon after lunch but before dinner 68% 73% Midevening shortly after dinner 36% 39% Late night before bedtime 38% 40% Base: 1,500 Consumers Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report Base: 1,501 (2010) and 1,500 (2012) consumers aged 18+

17 4 in 10 consumers indicate they re gravitating toward more healthful snacks In which ways has your snacking behavior changed in the last two years? 33% I am snacking on healthier items 46% % Overall 40% I feel more guilty about snacking 9% 17% 13% I eat more salty snacks I eat more sweet snacks I feel less guilty about snacking I am snacking on less healthy items 13% 12% 12% 12% 8% 10% 7% 5% 13% 12% 9% 6% Male Female Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+ *19% of consumers report that their snacking behavior has not changed at all in the past two years Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report

18 Majority of consumers say $3 is the highest price they are willing to pay for a snack How much are you willing to pay for a snack that you would not consider to be a full meal? % Overall Less than $2 28% 36% 32% $2 $ % 30% 32% $3 $ % 19% 22% $4 $4.99 $5 or more 8% 8% 6% 7% 8% 6% Base: 1,500 Consumers Source: 2012 Technomic Snacking Consumer Trend Report Base: 1,500 consumers aged 18+

19 Menu Trends 19

20 Nuts on the Menu Butters Pesto s Toppings Crusts Savory Snacks Sweet Treats 20

21 Pecan Menu Sampler Spring Mix, Pickled Beets And Onions, Candied Pecans And House Made Vinaigrette Pecan-Crusted Red Snapper Topped With Jumbo Lump Crabmeat, Served With Broccolini Spiced Pecan Green Beans Gluten Free Pastel De Tres Leches Three Milk Soaked Pecan Cake,Coconutcaramel Mousse. 21 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

22 Walnut Menu Sampler Wild Mushroom Flatbread spinach and walnut pesto, roasted wild mushrooms, parmesan Apple Walnut Slaw Brie, Raisin, and Noix Brie Cheese, Raisins and Walnut Butter spread on soft whole grain bread. Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic Candied Walnut Truffle 22

23 Almond Menu Sampler Quinoa with Carrots and Almonds Tarragon Almond Chicken Salad Sandwich Sweet Almond Pretzel Coated with Toasted Sweet Almond Crunchiness Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic Almond Torte 23

24 Pecan Mentions Up Nearly 15% Since Pecans on the Menu 558 Entrée Pecan Menu Mentions By mealpart Dessert Total Menu Mentions Total Operators Offering Appetizer Q Q Q Q Q Q Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 24

25 Fast Casuals and Large Chains Among the Operators Adding Pecans to the Menu Operators Menuing Pecans By segment Operators Menuing Pecans By operator size Casual Dining Top 250 Chains Fine Dining Quick Service Midscale Fast Casual Next 250 Chains Top Independents Emerging Chains Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 25

26 Varied Menu, Steak and Family-Style Restaurants Most Common Among Operators Offering Pecans Varied Menu Steak Family Style Seafood Fine Dining BBQ Frozen Dessert Bakery/Cafe Italian Family Casual Mexican Other Sandwich Pizza Asian/Noodle Burger Operators Menuing Pecans By restaurant type (2013) Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

27 Appetizer Salads With Pecans Doubled Since 2009 Menu Incidence of Salads with Pecans By mealpart Incidence of 2013 Salads with Pecans By segment Casual Dining 57% Fast Casual 14% Appetizer Entrée Q Q Q Quick Service 5% Fine Dining 12% Midscale 12% Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 27

28 Pecans Used in Desserts More Often Than Most Other Nut Varieties Mealpart Distribution of Leading Nut Types 2013 Total Incidence Peanut/ Peanut Butter 11.6% 37.5% 30.8% 20.1% 1,132 Pecan 11.4% 48.1% 33.1% 7.4% 993 Almond 10.8% 52.9% 25.7% 10.6% 942 Walnut 14.7% 49.4% 24.6% 11.2% 898 Appetizers Entrées Desserts All Other Base: 1,288 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging and Regional Chains and Top and Regional Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 28

29 Pecans Grow Second-Fastest Among Various Nuts Over the Past Five Years Menu Incidence of Various Nuts Growth Peanuts & Peanut Butter % Pecan % Almond % Walnut Q Q Q % Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 29

30 Other Nuts Have Declined Over the Past Five Years Menu Incidence of Various Nuts Growth Pine Nut % Hazelnut % Macadamia % Cashew % Pistachio % Q Q Q Base: 688 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging Chains and Top Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 30

31 Price Trends 31

32 Nuts Generally Command Strong Price Premiums Price Premiums on Menus for Items With Nuts By dish type Premium Appetizers Overall $10.15 $ % Appetizer Salad $7.75 $ % Average Menu Price, with Nuts Average Menu Price, Overall Base: 1,288 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging and Regional Chains and Top and Regional Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 32

33 Nuts Generally Command Strong Price Premiums Price Premiums on Menus for Items With Nuts By dish type Premium Desserts Overall $5.87 $ % Dessert Baked Goods $5.73 $ % Dessert Ice Cream $5.12 $ % Average Menu Price, with Nuts Average Menu Price, Overall Base: 1,288 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging and Regional Chains and Top and Regional Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 33

34 Nuts Generally Command Strong Price Premiums Entrées - Overall Price Premiums on Menus for Items With Nuts By dish type $14.11 $12.90 Premium +9.4% Entrée - Breakfast Starch $7.62 $ % Entrée - Chicken Dish $14.87 $ % Entrée - Fish Dish $23.58 $ % Entrée - Salad Main Dish Entrée - Sandwich $10.49 $9.93 $8.39 $ % +9.1% Average Menu Price, with Nuts Average Menu Price, Overall Base: 1,288 Menus among the Top 500 and Emerging and Regional Chains and Top and Regional Independent Operators Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic 34

35 Opportunities For Nuts 35

36 Opportunities Adding Quality With Toppings Key Insights Consumer interest in adding texture, flavor and nutritional benefits to salads opens the door for innovative nut toppings 36 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

37 Opportunities Crusted Protein Preparation Key Insights Pecan crusted preparation provides a crunchy texture and nutty flavor to moist fish mains 37 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

38 Opportunities Nut Infused Sauces Key Insights Pecans and other nuts stand in for traditional pine nuts in more contemporary pesto-based dishes 38 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

39 Opportunities Spicy Flavor Profiles Key Insights As American consumer flavor profiles evolve to include greater influence of spicy flavors and heat, spiced nuts provide a subtle spicy enhancement 39 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

40 Opportunities Indulgent Candied Nuts Key Insights Combining the delicious flavor of buttery nuts with sugary sweetness provides luxury through indulgence and decadence 40 Source: MenuMonitor; Technomic

41 Conclusions 41

42 Conclusion Restaurant Industry still faces challenges ahead with some segments positioned better than others Consumers snacking occasions provide opportunities for product development, packaging and menu integration Operators have increased their incidence of nuts on the menu and consumers are getting more variety and familiarity across meal parts Opportunities at polished casual and fast casual restaurants continue to grow 42

43 More Information? Darren Tristano Executive Vice President