Beef, Veal and Lamb Report

Transcription

1 Beef, Veal and Lamb Report March 31, 2016 Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef production last week rose.8% and was 3.3% larger than the same week last year. Solid beef output expansion is expected to persist for the better part of this year which should generally weigh on beef prices. Consumers have pushed back on the late winter rise in beef prices. The four week moving average for spot beef shipments have fallen to a two month low. Further, forward beef sales were light last week. This factor and positive beef packer margins may weigh on the beef markets in the near term. However, grilling season demand could lift several beef markets thereafter. End of February boneless beef stocks were.3% less than last year but the second biggest on record. Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Lower Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Lower Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (pr) Increasing Good Higher 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher 121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Higher 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Higher 180 1x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 180 1x1 Strip (pr) Steady Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Good Higher 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Increasing Good Lower 193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 65% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Decreasing Good Lower Veal Top Round (cap off) Decreasing Good Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association

2 Grains Soybean oil and palm oil prices continue to rise due to concerns around world palm oil output. Recent private forecasts suggest world palm oil production will trend below year ago levels in the coming months. Annual world palm oil output has only fallen below the previous year four times in the last 50 years Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Good Higher Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Good Lower Corn, bushel Increasing Good Lower Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Good Higher High Fructose Corn Syrup Steady Good Lower Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Steady Good Same HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Steady Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Black Beans, lb Steady Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Lower

3 Dairy The cheese markets have continued to trend below 2015 levels. Milk production is starting to seasonally build. So much so that various farmers in the Midwest are having to discount milk to sell it to cheese plants. This should fuel strong cheese output in the near term which could weigh on the cheese markets. End of February domestic cheese holdings were 10.8% more than last year and the biggest for the date since The butter market has been relatively range-bound as of late but additional weakness could occur soon. February butter stocks were 31.6% more than Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Increasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Steady Good Higher Butter (CME) Decreasing Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Lower Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Class 1 Base Decreasing Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Decreasing Good Higher Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower

4 Pork Pork output last week declined.4% and was 5% less than the same week a year ago. Hog slaughter for the week was the smallest for any non-holiday week in eight months. Seasonal declines in pork production should be supportive of the pork markets in the coming months. The March 1st total U.S. hog and pig herd was 4% percent larger than last year. However, the breeding herd was slightly smaller than This suggests that any year over year expansion in pork output may only be modest for the better part of this year. Live Hogs Increasing Ample Higher Sow Increasing Ample Lower Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Increasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Good Higher Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Lower Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Good Higher SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher

5 Poultry Chicken output for the week ending March 19 th declined.4% from the previous week and was just.6% more than the same week last year to date chicken slaughter is tracking 1.6% above the prior year. After adjusted for the leap year, the February broiler type chick hatch was 1.6% bigger than This and modest weight gains signals year over year chicken production expansion near 3% during the spring. The chicken breast markets are on the rise and further increases should be forthcoming. Still, solid chicken output expansion could temper any further chicken breast price increases. The table egg flock continues to recover. The March 1st table egg layer flock rose to its highest level since April but was 3% smaller than last year. Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Steady Good Same Wings (whole) Increasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Lower Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Lower Breast, Bone In Increasing Good Lower Breast, Boneless Skinless Decreasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (random) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (sized) Increasing Good Lower Legs (whole) Increasing Good Lower Leg Quarters Decreasing Good Lower Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Good Lower Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Lower Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Short Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Increasing Short Higher Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Steady Short Lower Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Lower Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Lower Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Short Higher

6 Seafood Seafood prices have been relatively engaging as of late at the retail counter. During February, retail seafood prices were 3.5% less than the previous year and the least expensive for any month since December of These engaging retail prices along with salmon production concerns in Chile may lift wholesale seafood prices during the next few months. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Decreasing Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Increasing Good Higher Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Increasing Good Lower Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Steady Good Higher

7 Paper and Plastic Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Lower Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Decreasing Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Increasing Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Feb-16 Jan-15 Dec-15 Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Decreasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing Pork Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Increasing Various Markets California tomato processors are expected to contract 13.2 million tons of tomatoes in 2016 according to the USDA which is a three year low. The canned tomato markets may continue to track below 2015 levels this spring. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Lower Coffee lb ICE Increasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Lower Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Higher Honey (clover) lb Decreasing Good Lower

8 Produce The lettuce markets continue to trend at relatively engaging levels for buyers. The chief production region is shifting to Huron California with output on the rise there. Total iceberg lettuce shipments last week rose 9.5% but were still 8% less than a year ago. No major lettuce supply gaps are anticipated as the harvest area transitions to Salinas later this spring. The potato markets have been fairly steady as of late but history suggests that the greater risk in prices is to the upside. The five year average move for the 70 count Idaho potato market from now until mid-july is an increase of 12%. Limes (150 ct) Increasing Good Lower Lemons (95 ct) Steady Good Higher Lemons (200 ct) Steady Short Lower Honeydew (6 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Cantaloupe (15 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Blueberries (12 ct) Increasing Good Higher Strawberries (12 pnt) Increasing Good Higher Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Bananas (40 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Pineapple (7 ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Steady Short Higher Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Steady Short Higher Processing Potato (cwt) Steady Short Lower Yellow Onions (50 lb) Increasing Good Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher Red Onions (25 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher White Onions (50 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher Tomatoes (lg case) Steady Good Higher Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Decreasing Good Higher Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Higher Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Decreasing Good Higher Green Peppers (lg case) Increasing Good Higher Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Decreasing Good Higher Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Steady Good Lower Broccoli (14 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Squash (1/2 bushel) Decreasing Good Higher Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Decreasing Good Higher Green Beans (bushel) Decreasing Good Lower Spinach (flat 24) Increasing Good Lower Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Steady Good Higher Cucumbers (bushel) Decreasing Good Higher Pickles ( ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Asparagus (sm) Steady Good Higher Freight (truck CA-Cty Av) Steady Good Lower

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