PTNPA Other Nut Report. Bobby Tankersley JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON
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1 PTNPA Other Nut Report Bobby Tankersley JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON
2 Trends The World is Flat Rising commodity prices Currency impact Increasing export demand - CHINA Food safety risk Rising cost of production Health and wellness
3 Estimated Share of 2008 World Tree Nut Production Brazils, 2% Pecans, 4% Macs, 1% Pistachios, 8% Almonds, 29% Filberts, 16% Walnuts, 18% Cashews, 22%
4 per pound Consolidated Pricing Trend
5 per pound Effect of Currency on Nut Costs
6 Percentage of Crops Exported 100% 90% 80% 2003 Crop 2008 Crop 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Almonds Walnuts Pecans Pistachios
7 Inshell Exports to China
8 % of 2009 Crop Sold to China
9 Almonds
10 Almond Crop Receipts thru Jan 1.36 bil lbs vs CASS est of 1.35 bil Thru Jan, only 30% of total almond supply remains uncommitted (vs 38% same period last year) Some Cal sizes (27/30) are scarce Spot prices are $ above opening levels (70-100% increase)
11 World Almond Supply 2500 U.S. Carry-in Other Crop U.S. Crop F
12 U.S. Almond Supply & Consumption Total U. S. Supply Inedible Exports Domestic Consumption Millions of kernel pounds F Crop Year
13 Almond Bearing Acreage 900, , , , , , , , ,000 - Acres F 2010F 2011F Non-bearing Bearing
14 Almond Summary Shipments thru Jan 21% above last year with supply only 4% above last year Rain and cold weather prior to bloom has been favorable for 2010 crop development Early new crop prices $1.10 above same time last year Barring negative bloom event, 2010 crop should set new record
15 Walnuts
16 Walnut Crop CASS final harvest for 2009 crop was 436 thousand inshell tons Heavy rains during harvest resulted in crop loss and increased mold levels in varieties that produce light grade
17 U.S. Walnut Supply & Consumption Supply Consumption 450 Thousands of Tons Inshell F Crop Year
18 Walnut Summary Shipments through Jan were 58% above last year with supply only 6% above last year Heavy demand from China and Turkey for inshell varieties that produce light grade
19 Cashews
20 Cashew Crop Shorter than expected crops in Viet Nam and Brazil triggered defaults and drove prices up last year Prices have recently moderated due to buyer resistance and anticipation of good crop in Vietnam
21 World Cashew Crops by Origin W. Africa 22% Other 4% India 27% E. Africa 9% Vietnam 22% Brazil 16%
22 World Cashew Crops In 100M Metric Tons F
23 Cashew Summary India has grown into a major consuming nation (second only to the US) US snack consumption declined due to last year s high prices Long term world supply stable with slightly larger crops expected
24 Macadamias
25 Macadamia Crop Rain during Australian harvest resulted in significant crop loss after early contracts had been made Strong currency in Australia and South Africa translates into low prices to growers
26 World Macadamia Crops Millions of shelled pounds Other Brazil Guatem ala Kenya Costa Rica South Africa Australia U S F Source : USDA
27 Macadamia Summary Inshell demand from China will continue to drive up field prices in Kenya, S. Africa, Malawi and Australia Hawaiian acreage will continue to shrink as field prices remain below cost of production Dollar weak against all origins
28 Pistachios
29 Pistachio Crop US Crop estimate reduced by 21% from 450 mil to 354 mil lbs High percentage of blanks responsible for big miss on crop estimate Lingering impact of freeze damage hurt crop in Iran
30 World Pistachio Crops by Origin
31 World Pistachio Crops Millions of inshell pounds
32 U.S. Pistachio Supply & Consumption
33 U.S. Pistachio Acreage Non-bearing Bearing 120 Thousands of acres
34 Pistachio Summary Impact of Salmonella recall on U.S. consumption was significant in 2009 but has recovered Strong export demand will keep prices firm Low carryover going into typical short crop
35 Hazelnuts
36 Hazelnut Crop 2009 Turkish crop slightly smaller than last year Turkish government continues to prop up market by holding inventory from 2008 & 2007 crops (equal to entire 2009 crop) Prices remain firm due to strong demand and supply restrictions
37 World Hazelnut Crops by Origin Spain 3% Italy 12% Other 6% US 4% Turkey 75%
38 World Hazelnut Crops ,000 tonnes F
39 Hazelnut Summary China bought 63% of entire Oregon filbert crop Turkish economic and political conditions will make continued price supports difficult Buyers anticipate softer prices when(if) Turkey releases goods into the market
40 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 Light H&P $1.90 Cal SSR $1.50 Pist kernels $5.75 Style IV $ cashews $3.10
41 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $5.00 Light H&P $1.90 $4.00 Cal SSR $1.50 $2.60 Pist kernels $5.75 $7.50 Style IV $3.00 $ cashews $3.10 $2.85
42 Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $ % Light H&P $1.90 $ % Cal SSR $1.50 $ % Pist kernels $5.75 $ % Style IV $3.00 $ % 320 cashews $3.10 $2.85-8%
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