World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing February 10, 2015

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1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing

2 World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India

3 World Wheat Supply and Use Million Tons Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

4 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,135 2, Imports Total supply 3,021 2, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,255 1, Exports 1, Total use 2,431 2, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

5 World Rice Production Country or Region Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

6

7 Thailand (North ) Reservoir Levels Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

8 World Rice Supply and Use Million Tons, milled Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

9 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) 7,694 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price /

10 World Corn Production Country or Region Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India

11 Argentina Corn Tucuman Catamarca La Rioja Jujuy San Luis Salta La Pampa Santiago del Estero Cordoba Chaco Santa Fe Buenos Aires Formosa Entre Rios Corrientes Misiones * State-Level Production (as % of total) Cordoba Buenos Aires Santa Fe Entre Rios La Pampa Santiago del Estero Chaco San Luis Salta Tucuman Other States Source: SAGPyA ~1 * 2005/06 to 2009/10 Average Corn crop calendar for most of Argentina PLANT SILK SILK FILL HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Corn Production *Average (2005/06-09/10) Minor Production Intensity *Source: SAGPyA Major Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

12 Argentina Soybeans Tucuman Catamarca La Rioja Jujuy San Luis Salta La Pampa Santiago del Estero Cordoba Chaco Santa Fe Buenos Aires Formosa Entre Rios Corrientes Misiones * State-Level Production (as % of total) Cordoba Buenos Aires Santa Fe Entre Rios Santiago del Estero Salta Chaco Tucuman La Pampa Other States Source: SAGPyA ~1 * 2005/06 to 2009/10 Average Soybean crop calendar for most of Argentina FLOWER PLANT FILL HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2 nd soybean crop is double cropped after winter wheat (harvested May Jun) Soybean Production *Average (2005/06-09/10) Minor Production Intensity *Source: SAGPyA Major Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

13 Average Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

14 2009/ /07 Average Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

15 Argentina Corn and Soybeans January and February Projections Crop Forecast date Area (Million hectares) Yield (Tons/Ha) Production (Million tons) Corn, Soybeans,

16 World Corn Supply and Use Million Tons Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply 1, , Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

17 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 821 1, Production 13,829 14, Imports Total supply 14,686 15, Feed and residual 5,036 5, Food, seed, and industrial 6,501 6, Ethanol 5,134 5, Domestic use 11,537 11, Exports 1,917 1, Total use 13,454 13, Ending stocks 1,232 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

18 World Soybean Production Country or Region Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

19 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Mato Grosso Parana Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Bahia Sao Paulo Maranhao Santa Catarina Tocantins Other * 2009 to 2013 Average Source: IBGE Brazil ~3 Brazil Soybeans Acre Soybean Production *Average ( ) Minor Production Intensity Amazonas *Source: IBGE Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil Planting Flower Fill Harvesting AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL Roraima Rondonia Major Mato Grosso Santa Catarina Para Mato Grosso do Sul Amapa Parana Rio Grande do Sul Tocantins Goias Sao Paulo a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Maranhao Piaui Minas Gerais i a Bahia h d f b e c Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

20 * State-Level Production (as % of total) Minas Gerais Parana Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Goias Sao Paulo Bahia Maranhao Piaui Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Ceara Other States * 2011 to 2013 Average Source: IBGE Brazil Brazil Corn (First Crop) Acre Corn Production *Average ( ) Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE 1 st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil Harvest JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC In Northeast Brazil, 1 st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul). ~4 Period of Highest Intensity Plant Amazonas Roraima Rondonia Major Mato Grosso Santa Catarina Para Mato Grosso do Sul Amapa Parana Rio Grande do Sul Tocantins Goias Sao Paulo a Ceara b Rio Grande do Norte c Paraiba d Pernambuco e Alagoas f Sergipe h Espirito Santo i Rio de Janeiro Maranhao Piaui Minas Gerais i a Bahia h d f b e c Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

21 Vegetation Index -- Bahia Bahia

22 Brazil: Evapotranspiration Anomaly

23 Brazil Corn and Soybeans January and February Projections Crop Forecast date Area (Million hectares) Yield (Tons/Ha) Production (Million tons) Corn, Soybeans,

24 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 3,358 3, Imports Total supply 3,570 4, Crush 1,734 1, Seed and residual Domestic use 1,832 1, Exports 1,647 1, Total use 3,478 3, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

25 World Cotton Production Country or Region Million Bales Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone

26 World Cotton Supply and Use Million Bales Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Consumption Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks

27 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Million bales Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Percent Stocks/use Cents per pound Average market price /

28 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 1,000 short tons, raw value Percent Percent Beginning Stocks 2,158 1, Production 8,457 8, Beets 4,794 4, Cane 3,663 3, Imports 3,742 3, TRQ 1,302 1, Re-export Mexico 2,130 1, High-tier Total Supply 14,357 13, Exports Domestic deliveries 12,255 11, Total use 12,561 12, Ending stocks 1,796 1, Percent Stocks/use ratio

29 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand Thousand MT Percent Percent Beginning stocks 1, Production 6,021 6, Imports Total Supply 7,613 7, Domestic use 4,271 4, Exports 2,511 1, Total Use 6,782 6, Ending stocks

30 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Production Billion pounds Percent Percent Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Dollars/cwt Steers Hogs Cents/lb Broilers Turkey

31 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds Exports Percent Percent Beef 2,573 2, Pork 4,858 4, Broilers 7,304 7, Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 15,656 15, Imports Beef 2,947 2,

32 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Billion pounds Percent Percent Production Imports Commercial use Exports Average market price 1/ Dollars/cwt Class III Class IV All milk / Prices are mid-point of published s; milk of average fat test.

33 U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices Dollars/pound Percent Percent Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Dollars/cwt Class III Class IV All milk

34 U.S. Production Summary Percent Percent Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 2,135 2, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 13,829 14, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 3,358 3, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 20,130 20, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 40,685 43, Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,457 8, Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat

35 Domestic Demand Summary Percent Percent Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 1,255 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 11,537 11, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 1,832 1, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 18,958 18, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 29,496 30, Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,255 11, Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat

36 U.S. Export Summary Percent Percent Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 1,917 1, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 1,647 1, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 1,877 2, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,550 12, Cotton (Million bales) Meat (Million lbs) Beef 2,573 2, Pork 4,858 4, Broilers 7,304 7, Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 15,656 15,

37 Price Summary Percent Percent Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt)

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