UNDERSTANDING CHINA: THE PECAN EXPORT MARKET & TOTAL CONSUMPTION

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1 UNDERSTANDING CHINA: THE PECAN EXPORT MARKET & TOTAL CONSUMPTION

2 INSHELL PECAN IMPORTS BY CHINA UNITED STATES SOUTH AFRICA MEXICO

3 U.S. INSHELL AND PECAN KERNEL EXPORTS TO CHINA (MT) (12 Month Comparison: September August) U.S. PECAN CROP PRODUCTION U.S. INSHELL PECAN EXPORTS TO CHINA (MT) (Included: China, Hong Kong, Vietnam) 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , , , , , , / / / / / /18 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000-44,522 30,402 38,657 25,404 34,331 35, / / / / / /18 (up to April) Series2 Approximately 25% of the U.S. pecan production is shipped to China. Approximately 75% of the U.S. inshell pecan exports to China are from Georgia. Source: NPSA, USDA

4 SOUTH AFRICA 30,000 20,000 10,000-40,000 30,000 20,000 SOUTH AFRICA EXPORTS 75% to 85% OF INSHELL PECAN CROP TO CHINA 18,000 14, (est) SOUTH AFRICA PECAN PRODUCTION (MT) 2019 (est) 16,500 20, (est) 28, (est) 35,000 70% of South Africa pecan production is in the Northern Cape Province Approximately 34,100 hectares planted (currently) Approximately 28% hectares are currently in production Approximately 75% of inshell pecan nuts are exported to China Main Cultivars: Wichita, Choctaw, Western, Pawnee 10, % of the crop is nuts per pound 40% is nuts per pound South Africa crop harvest time is favorable for marketing to China Source: INC, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut, INC online data, South Africa Pecan Processors Association

5 SOUTH AFRICA

6 MEXICO Estimated 2017 crop production was 110,000 MT in Mexico Approximately 11,000 MT was export to China (In 2016: 6,604 MT was shipped from Mexico ports) Approximately 70% of the inshell pecan exported to China is from Sonora Sonora main cultivars: Wichita 70% and Western 20% Approximately 60% of crop is count per pound 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - INSHELL PECAN EXPORTS TO CHINA (MT) 6,604 5,579 4,092 3,316 3,141 3, Sonora harvests in September, right on time for the Chinese New Year **The export number does not include the quantity that was shipped through US ports. SONORA, MEXICO PRODUCTION IN (MT) 25,000 25, , ,000 MEXICO PECAN PRODUCTION (MT) 20,000 15,000 10, ,000 50,000 5, Source: Agriculture information Service Mexico, SAGARPA COMENUEZ, Productora, SIAP

7 GROWER CLEANING PLANTS IN SONORA, MEXICO Inshell pecans going to China are processed in a cleaning plant that cleans, dries, sizes, and packs in 25 kg bags.

8 HARVEST DATES: VERY IMPORTANT FOR CHINA SOUTH AFRICA Harvest: June - July Ocean transportation to China is 35 days. Timing is very good for Chinese New Year production. SONORA, MEXICO Harvest: September - October Ocean transportation to China: 35 days. Right on time for Chinese New Year production. GEORGIA, USA Harvest: October - December Ocean transportation to China is 40 days. Majority of the crop does not make it for Chinese New Year production.

9 INSHELL PECAN IMPORTED BY CHINA FROM USA, MEXICO & SOUTH AFRICA (12 Months Comparison: JANUARY - DECEMBER) USA South Africa Mexico IN-SHELL PECAN IMPORTED BY CHINA FROM USA, MEXICO & SOUTH AFRICA 60,000 50,000 18% 25% 40,000 30,000 21% 8% 8% 16% 13% 15% 17% 12% 20,000 71%% 74% 72% 68% 63% 10, USA MEXICO SOUTH AFRICA Source: Agriculture Information Service Mexico, SAGARPA COMENUEZ, Productora, SIAP, NPSA, Carter Pecan, South Africa Pecan Processors Association

10 USA PECAN CROP CONSUMPTION 12 Month Comparison: Jan - Dec 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 KERNEL - USA CONSUMPTION 17,021 16,434 16,876 18,446 18, ,000 18,000 13,000-2,000 DATA: ITI Total MULO baking Nuts syndicated Definition. ENDING DECEMBER 2017 DATA: NPSA, USDA: Ending December ,000 3,000 KERNEL INT L EXPORT 19,330 15,928 16,925 21,681 28, ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - IN-SHELL CHINA, HONG KONG, VIETNAM EXPORT 38,635 29,485 31,027 36,007 27, DATA: NPSA, USDA: Ending December , ,000 50,000 0 PECAN CONSUMPTION IN-SHELL 27.9% 31% 36.7% 30% 25.2% 33% 32.1% 37.4% 40.4% 43.5% 36% 31.2% 32.6% 34.4% 28.6% KERNEL TO IN-SHELL CONVERSION USING AN AVERAGE 50% YIELD FACTOR. 1 lb Kernel = 2 lb In-Shell USA PECAN CONSUMPTION KERNEL CHINA INSHELL EXPORT INTERNATIONAL KERNEL EXPORT Source: NPSA, USDA, SAGARPA COMENUEZ, IRI/MULO BAKING NUTS

11 Millions of LBS. (Inshell) U.S. CROP PRODUCTION US Production & USDA AVERAGE and PricingPRICE Overview PAID TO GROWER 450,0 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 $3,00 $2,50 $2,00 $1,50 $1,00 $0,50 $- Crop Size (LBS.) Price Paid to Grower 11 Source: IRI/MULO BAKING NUTS

12 WORLD TREE NUT PRODUCTION (Metric Tons) Kernel basis, except pistachios in-shell BRAZIL NUTS 10,700 PINE NUTS 22,850 MACADAMIAS 51,854 PECANS 124,145 HAZELNUTS 490,028 PISTACHIOS 586,207 CASHEWS 789,050 WALNUTS 871,849 ALMONDS 1,240, , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400, /2017 CROP. Source: INC

13 CHINA RETAIL MARKETS CONSUMERS OF TODAY AND TOMORROW China is the largest international market for tree nuts outside the U.S. and the numbers keep rising

14 E-COMMERCE GROWING RAPIDLY 1.4 billion people in China. China s middle class is now the size of the entire U.S. population! Public data shows that the business value of nuts in China is 29 billion RMB (USD $4.62 billion) in 2017, and will reach 50 billion RMB (USD $7.97 billion) in China s consumption of tree nuts increased 17% from January 2017 to December However, consumption of pecans and macadamias is slightly DOWN September through December compared to last year. (Resources: sycm) E-Commerce nut purchases are growing rapidly. But, traditional retail market sales for nut is declining. New trends in nuts for China: Less Flavored Minimal Processing Kernel market is growing very fast From CHASING WEALTH to CHASING HEALTH = EAT RIGHT EXAMPLE OF ANNUAL SALES OF INSHELL PECANS FROM ONE OF CHINA S TOP E- COMMERCE RETAILERS

15 CHINA S TARIFFS U.S. PECAN IMPORTS 2015: 24% Tariff + 13% VAT 2016: 10% Tariff +13% VAT 2017: 7% Tariff + 11% VAT 2018 (April-July 5, 2018): 22% Tariff + 11% VAT 2018 (starting July 6, 2018): 47% Tariff + 11% VAT 32% Tariff Example Cost: Inshell pecan per LB = $2.00 Tariff: 47% = $0.94 VAT: 11% (($ $0.94) * 11%) = $0.32 TOTAL per LB = $3.26 7% Tariff Example Cost: Inshell pecan per LB = $2.00 Tariff: 7% = $0.14 VAT: 11% (($ $0.15) * 11%) = $0.24 TOTAL per LB = $2.38 ** PECAN TARIFFS FROM AUSTRALIA WILL BE 0% IN 2019! ** PECAN TARIFFS FROM MEXICO & SOUTH AFRICA IS 7%.

16 Thank You! SALLY ARN Thomas Drive Panama City Beach, FL 32408

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