WORLD WINE SUPPLY OUTLOOK MARCH 5, 2017 THE VINEGAR INSTITUTE 2017 ANNUAL MEETING
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1 WORLD WINE SUPPLY OUTLOOK MARCH 5, 2017 THE VINEGAR INSTITUTE 2017 ANNUAL MEETING
2 DEDICATED BROKERS IN 8 COUNTRIES GLOBALLY BASED TO BUILD YOUR BUSINESS WORLDWIDE
3 INTRODUCTION - CIATTI COMPANY - BROKER PERSPECTIVE - INFO + DATA = MARKET INTELLIGENCE - TODAY S GOAL - PAST PRESENTATION 2011 & ACREAGE / PRODUCTION / CONSUMPTION WHAT S TRENDING TODAY
4 2014 WORLD WINE PRODUCTION: 270 M HL 80% OF THE WORLD S WINE IS PRODUCED BY TEN COUNTRIES
5 NORTHERN & SOUTHERN HEMPISHERE COMPARISON IN MILLIONS OF US TONS Total Southern Northern AVERAGE HARVEST YEAR
6 PLANTED SURFACE AREA vs WORLD WINE PRODUCTION Thousands of hectares 8,000 7,900 7,800 7,700 7,600 7,500 7,400 7, Millions of hectoliters Source: OIV Area Under Vines Production
7 GLOBAL ACREAGE TRENDS COUNTRY % CHANGE PLANTING SPAIN 6 HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY FRANCE 2 REMOVED YIELD RESTRICTIONS ITALY 8 CHINA USA 42 4 CABERNET SAUVIGNON, CHARDONNAY, MERLOT REMOVAL OF GENERICS / PLANTINGS OF VARIETALS ARGENTINA 3 MALBEC Source: OIV CHILE 3 CABERNET SAUVIGNON, SAUVIGNON BLANC, MERLOT, PINOT NOIR AUSTRALIA 13 REMOVAL OF GENERICS SOUTH AFRICA GERMANY NEW ZEALAND SAUVIGNON BLANC, PINOT NOIR
8 NORTHERN HEMPISPHERE ITALY FRANCE SPAIN
9 ITALY M 8.2 M 6.8 M 7.5 M 7.2 M - LARGEST WORLD PRODUCER IN PINOT GRIGIO MARKET BALANCED DOC - LOWER YIELDS, NO BLENDING OPTIONS - PROSECCO CONTINUES TO PERFORM - HOT ITEM - LARGEST EXPORTER TO THE WORLD
10 FRANCE M 6.4 M 7.2 M 7.3 M 6.6 M - LOSING AT THE LOW PRICE END TO SPAIN - PROVENCE ROSE IS THE BRIGHT SPOT - BORDEAUX LARGE HARVEST - BURGUNDY TOUGH HARVEST - BOTTLED GROWTH TO USA - DECLINING DEMAND LOCALLY
11 SPAIN M 6.9 M 6.7 M 6.4 M 6.4 M - SUBSIDIES ARE OVER FOR DISTILLATION / BIGGER CROPS DUE TO SUBSIDY PROGRAM - GENERIC VERSUS VARIETAL - POTENTIALLY OVERPLANTED GIVEN GENERIC DEMAND - CONTINUED OVERSUPPLY EXPECTED - EXPORTER OF PRODUCT FRANCE, GERMANY, & ITALY NOW CHINA
12 SOUTHERN HEMPISPHERE CHILE ARGENTINA SOUTH AFRICA AUSTRALIA
13 CHILE M 2.0 M 1.5 M 2.0 M 1.58 M - FREE TRADE WITH MANY COUNTRIES: INCLUDING CHINA - QUALITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE - LARGE RED WINE BULK SUPPLIERS / FOCUSED ON EXPORT - DIFFICULT 2016 HARVEST RAINS - STRONG PLAYER IN CS, ME, PN, & SB - DECADE OF VINEYARD MODERIZATION & PLANTING
14 ARGENTINA M 3.0 M 2.9 M 2.6 M 1.9 M - BIG DOMESTIC MARKET / GRAPE CONCENTRATE - QUALITY IMAGE - MALBEC PRICES UP - GENERICS DOMESTIC - NEW GOVERNMENT IN INFLATION AN ISSUE ISSUES WITH QUALITY & QUANTITY 2017 BETTER
15 AUSTRALIA M 2.0 M 1.9 M 1.8 M 2.0 M - REDS, CHARDONNAY & PINOT GRIGIO ARE STRENGTHS - ACRES MOVING INTO ALMONDS / DISAPPEARING GRAPE ACREAGE - UK, USA, CANADA ARE TRADITIONAL MARKETS - CHINA MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE / FREE TRADE
16 SOUTH AFRICA M 1.6 M 1.7 M 1.6 M 1.5 M - DEMAND UK/GERMAN DRIVEN - STEADY PRODUCTION FOR YEARS - DRY WHITE, CHARDONNAY, MERLOT, ROSÉ - MARKET SLUGGISH OVERALL - CURRENCY / EXCHANGE
17 NEW ZEALAND , , , , ,000 - PREMIUM PRICING SB & PN - LIMITED PRODUCTION NEED PLANTABLE ACRES - BIG HARVEST BIG DEMAND - USA LARGEST MARKET - RECENT EARTHQUAKE
18 USA
19 USA CALIFORNIA M 4.2 M 3.9 M 3.7 M 4.0 M - VINEYARD ACRES IN TRANSITION - GROWTH OF PREMIUM SEGMENT - DECLINE OF VALUE BRANDS - CONSOLIDATION BIG GET BIGGER
20 USA - WASHINGTON 270,000 TONS - OREGON 80,000 TONS - NEW YORK 40,000 TONS - BONDED WINERIES 9,000 TOTAL - PREMIUM FOCUS VARIETALS - SUPPLIERS TO DOMESTIC MARKET
21 US MARKET WINERIES LARGEST - TOP 10: - GALLO 75M - THE WINE GROUP 57M - CONSTELLATION 51M - TRINCHERO 19M - TREASURY 15M - BRONCO 10M - DELICATO 9M - STE. MICHELLE (WA) 9M - JACKSON FAMILY 6M - FETZER-CONCHA 3M ALL OTHER = 15% 85% - TOP BRANDS: - BOGLE - FRANCIS FORD COPPOLA - J. LOHR - JOSH - APOTHIC - MICHAEL DAVID - NAKED - BAREFOOT - MEIOMI - BOTA BOX / BLACK BOX - DUCKHORN - JOEL GOTT
22 SALES & CONSUMPTION
23 SALES & CONSUMPTION - WORLD OLD WORLD VS NEW WORLD - USA - GROWTH BIGGEST & BEST MARKET - PREMIUMIZATION - STRONG ECONOMY - DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM DIRECT TO CONSUMER - CHAIN STORE SALES - PACKAGING OPTIONS
24 Source: OIV TOP 10 WINE CONSUMERS
25 USA TIMES ARE GOOD!! TOTAL GROWTH 4.3% GROWTH % + 7.5% - 2.0% Ultra Premium ($15 plus) Premium ($9-15) Value ($2-9) % OF MARKET 15.5% 37.0% 47.5%
26 USA NIELSEN HIGHLIGHTS - GLASS 750 ML + 5% - PREMIUM BOX 3L + 14% - RED WINE + 6% - BLUSH = ROSE + 6% IMPORTS - ITALY + 6% - FRENCH + 15% - NEW ZEALAND + 15% VARIETIES - CHARDONNAY + 2.8% - CABERNET SAUVIGNON + 7.3% - RED BLENDS % - SWEET RED % - PINOT NOIR + 9.4% - SAUVIGNON BLANC %
27 TRENDS & FUTURE OUTLOOK - M + A BRANDS & LANDS - GLOBAL ACREAGE CHANGING - MILLENNIALS OUR FUTURE - COMPETITION SHARE OF MOUTH - CHINA THE GREATEST UNKNOWN?? - FUTURE LOOKS GOOD
28 LASTLY CIATTI CRAFT BEVERAGES JOHN FEARLESS - BEER MARKET DECLINING OVERALL - PREMIUM GROWTH (+8%) 26M BARRELS - CRAFT BEERS HOPS DRIVEN - MEXICAN BREWS STEADY GROWTH - CONSUMER - YOUNG & CURIOUS - EXPLORERS - 5,000 BREWERIES IN US - TASTING
29 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND ATTENTION John Ciatti
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