The age of reproduction The effect of university tuition fees on enrolment in Quebec and Ontario,

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1 The age of reproduction The effect of university tuition fees on enrolment in Quebec and Ontario, Benoît Laplante, Centre UCS de l INRS Pierre Doray, CIRST-UQAM Nicolas Bastien, CIRST-UQAM Research Data Centres Conference, Toronto November Session 4B Educational and health capital

2 Tuition fees in Quebec and Ontario Tuition fees were relatively high in Quebec and Ontario in the first half of the 20 th century. Starting in the 1960 s, there is an attempt to reduce these fees. This is mainly done by maintaining them constant at their nominal value: in periods of normal inflation, this comes down to reducing their real value. From the 1980 s and the beginning of the neo-liberal era, governments of both provinces gradually reduce the funding of universities (in real value). This is done by increasing real contributions to a rate lower than inflation and by making cutbacks. 2

3 Policies in Quebec and Ontario In order to maintain an adequate level of funding of its universities, government in both provinces allowed tuition fees to be increased since the end of the 1980 s. The pace at which tuition fees are increased is however slower in Quebec than in Ontario. Nowadays, Quebec is still the province with the lowest tuition fees. In spring 2012, in order to catch up with Canadian average, the liberal government of Quebec increases tuition fees. This attempt at increasing tuition fees triggered important student movement that contributed to the calling of an early election, in which the liberal party was defeated. 3

4 The debate on tuition fees Tuition fees are a matter of education policy. The debate opposes two visions Low tuitions fees or free education encourages access of students from humble origins to university. The funding of university through income tax is a form of democratisation and redistribution. Low tuition fees do not constitute a form of redistribution because students from humble origins enrol less in university than students from the middle or upper classes. Funding university through income tax can thus be interpreted as taking from the poor and giving to the rich. To encourage university enrolment of students from humble origin, it is better to provide them with low-interest loans. 4

5 Evolution of tuition fees and university enrolment Difficult to disentangle To ensure universities are able to pursuit their mission, they are allowed to increase tuition fees. This increase is faster and more important in Ontario than in Quebec The proportion of youth who are enrolled in university among the university age population (18-29) continues to increase in both provinces, but this proportion increases faster in Quebec. 5

6 Ratio of university enrolment to population aged 18 29, Quebec , Ontario , and average tuition fees, Quebec and Ontario in 2011 constant dollars 6

7 Methodological problem It is difficult to make comparisons between provinces in Canada because each province has its specificities. This is particularly true with regards to the education system. There are many factors that govern access to university. The proportion of university age population can grow despite tuition fee increases. Other factors can mask the negative effect of tuition fees. How can we disentangle the effect of tuition fees from the effect of other factors that might increase enrolment? 7

8 Data and method Tuition fees did not increase steadily trough the second half of the 20th century. They are thus not correlated to historical time, nor to the growth trend in enrolment. It is therefore possible to distinguish the effect of tuition fees from the other factors that govern this trend This is possible using individual data that cover the period during which the real value of tuition fee varies This data exists. Statistics Canada biographical retrospective survey on family of 1995, 2001, 2006 et 2011 have gathered information on the highest level of education and the age at which education was completed. 8

9 Data and method The dependent variable is an event, enrolment in university, that occurs at a given age Independent variables: Tuition fees in constant dollars Sociolinguistic group in Ontario and Quebec Social origin Gender Trend We use Cox s semiparametric proportional hazards 9

10 Table 2 Enrolment into university according to selected sociodemographic characteristics, tuition fees and trend. Ontario and Quebec, Cox model Cohort [ ] Before *** ** *** Sex [Male] Female Sex and cohort [Male, ] ht () = h() te xβ Female, Before *** * Female, ** Female, *** Female, *** *** Male, Before * * Male, ** 2.11 *** Male, *** Sociolinguistic group [Quebec French-speaking] Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants *** *** *** Ontario English-speaking Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** *** *** Social origin [No PSE] Non-university PSE *** *** *** University 4.22 *** *** 4.12 *** Trend *** Tuition fees ($ thousands)

11 Table 3 Enrolment into university according to selected sociodemographic characteristics, tuition fees and trend. Ontario and Quebec, Effect of tuition fees conditional on social origin. Cox model. 4 5 Cohort and sex [Male, ] Female Before * Female *** *** Female *** *** Female, *** *** Male, Before * ** Male *** *** Male *** *** Sociolinguistic group [Quebec French-speaking] Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants *** *** Ontario English-speaking * Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** *** Trend by social origin No PSE *** ** Non-university PSE *** *** University *** *** Tuition fees by social origin No PSE ** Non-university PSE * University *** Tuition fees according to age by social origin Intercept (γd) No PSE ** Non-university PSE *** University *** Slope (γdt) No PSE *** Non-university PSE *** University *** * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.reference categories are between brackets. Coefficients expressed as relative risks ratios. Data from cycles 10, 15, 20 and 25 from the General Social Survey. Weighted estimation. Standard errors corrected using average design effect. Effect of tuition fees conditional on social origin ht () h() te e e e xβ = A zγ A D zγd DT 0 DT zγ D: Tuition fees A: Trend («year») T: Age Ontario immigrants Trend by social origin No PSE *** ** Non-university PSE *** *** University *** *** Tuition fees by social origin No PSE ** Non-university PSE * University *** Tuition fees according to age by social origin Intercept (γ D ) No PSE ** Non-university PSE *** University *** Slope (γ DT ) No PSE *** Non-university PSE *** University *** 11

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13 Table 4 Enrolment into university according to selected sociodemographic characteristics, tuition fees and trend. Ontario and Quebec, Effect of tuition fees conditional on sociolinguistic group. Cox model. 6 7 Cohort and sex [Male, ] Female Before Female ** *** Female *** *** Female, *** *** Male, Before * ** Male *** *** Male *** *** Social origin [No PSE] Non-university PSE *** *** University *** *** Trend by sociolinguistic group Quebec French-speaking *** *** Quebec English-speaking ** ** Quebec immigrants *** *** Ontario English-speaking * Ontario French-speaking *** *** Ontario immigrants *** *** Tuition fees by sociolinguistic group Quebec French-speaking ** Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants Ontario English-speaking Ontario French-speaking ** Ontario immigrants Tuition fees according to age by sociolinguistic group Intercepts (γd) Quebec French-speaking Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants Ontario English-speaking *** Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** Slopes (γdt) Quebec French-speaking * Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants * Ontario English-speaking *** Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.reference categories are between brackets. Coefficients expressed as relative risks ratios. Data from cycles 10, 15, 20 and 25 from the General Social Survey. Weighted estimation. Standard errors corrected using average design effect. Effect of tuition fees conditional on sociolinguistic group ht () h() te e e e xβ = A zγ A D zγd DT 0 DT zγ D: Tuition fees A: Trend («year») T: Age Tuition fees according to age by sociolinguistic group Intercepts (γ D ) Quebec French-speaking Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants Ontario English-speaking *** Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** Slopes (γ DT ) Quebec French-speaking * Quebec English-speaking Quebec immigrants * Ontario English-speaking *** Ontario French-speaking Ontario immigrants *** 13

14 The effect of tuition fees on enrolment according to age by social origin 14

15 The effect of tuition fees on enrolment according to age by sociolinguistic groups 15

16 Main results Tuition fees have an effect on access to university This effect varies across social groups The mean effect is negative for francophones of Quebec and of Ontario. The mean effect is negative for children whose parents do not have university education, but it is positive for those whose parents have university education. With the exception of anglophones in Quebec, the negative effect of tuition fees increases with age for all other groups. 16

17 Conclusion The effect of tuition fees on university access varies across sociolinguistic groups and across social origins. It is particularly marked for francophones in Quebec. In most groups, this effect varies with age. For anglophones of Ontario and for immigrants of Quebec and Ontario, high tuition fees appear to stimulate university enrolment for youth of university age. This is probably a social reproduction strategy. 17

18 Comments? Questions? 18