Top 10 financial planning mistakes

Transcription

1 2017 Annual TWGAA Conference Top 10 financial planning mistakes Presented by: Amanda Sims, Associate, Silicon Valley Bank

2 # 10 Improper sourcing strategies 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

3 Sourcing Characteristics $/Ton vs $/Acre Contracts Variety Short term vs Long term contracts Region Grower 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

4 Texas Viognier $1,300 $2,000 Virginia Viognier $1,800 $3,000 New York Riesling $1,200 $1,750 Oregon Pinot Gris $918 $2,667 Washington Riesling Average = $760 Central Valley Chardonnay $150 $625 Sonoma Chardonnay $700 $11,012 Napa Chardonnay $525 $7,500 Texas- Pate, Hellman, Johnson. Texas Vineyard Budgets Virginia- Virginia Wine Marketing Office Commercial Grape Report New York- Finger Lakes Grape Program Finger Lakes Grape Price Survey Oregon- Southern Oregon University Research Center. Preliminary Grape Prices Washington- Washington State Wine Commission. Annual Grape Crush Report California- California Department of Food and Agriculture. Grape Crush Report Final Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

5 Keep your sourcing strategy aligned Quality Price Point Input costs 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

6 # 10 Improper sourcing strategies - Diversify for emergencies - Match costs/ unit to bottle price 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

7 # 9 Ownership bleeds company 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

8 Debt Service Coverage (net income + interest + depreciation + amortization) DSC= EBIDA - Distributions Interest + Loan Payments Cash Flow: Debt Payments should be > 1.25x 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

9 When distributions hurt 3/31/ /31/2016 3/31/ TTM Net Income $ 50.0 $ $ 30.0 $ Interest Expense $ 15.0 $ 60.0 $ 15.0 $ 60.0 Depreciation & Amortization $ 10.0 $ 50.0 $ 10.0 $ 50.0 (Distributions) $ (100.0) $ (100.0) EBIDA $ 75.0 $ $ 55.0 $ Principal $ 25.0 $ $ 25.0 $ Interest $ 15.0 $ 60.0 $ 15.0 $ 60.0 Debt Service $ 40.0 $ $ 40.0 $ DSC Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

10 # 9 Ownership bleeds company - Think of cash flow needs for the next year if taking a distribution - Take a salary that can be ratcheted up or down 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

11 # 8 Underinvestment in bookkeeper 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

12 Wine Bookkeeper Qualifications Quarterly Depreciation Expense Wine Cost Accounting (Many inputs over long period of time) Capital Expenditures (acquisition expenses for equipment) Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

13 # 8 Underinvestment in bookkeeper - You are stretched thin, delegate to a professional - You need this information to be accurate and timely 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

14 # 7 Poor wine quality Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

15 Value = Price Quality 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

16 Value = Price + Experience Quality 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

17 Good Value Bad Value Good Times Bad Times 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

18 # 7 Poor wine quality - Invest in training and rewarding your sales staff - Bad wine is unlikely to be sold during a recession 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

19 # 6 Ignorance of approaching capital expenditures Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

20 Valuing your inventory Wholesale case price = $300 Bank advance rate = 50% Bank s case value = $150 (1-GM%) x (case price) = cost/ case ie (1-45%) x (300) = $165 Bank s case value = 90.9% of your cost 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

21 Annual Expenses for Wine Production LoC LoC LoC LoC Jan Mar white wine release Jun bottling Sep buy grapes Dec red wine release LoC LoC LoC Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec pest management/ labor expenses harvest expense sell grapes Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

22 Matching sources and uses of financing Use: Funds make wine Line of Credit Collateral: wine inventory Use: Funds buy assets or make improvements Term Debt Collateral: purchased or improved asset Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

23 # 6 Ignorance of approaching CAPEX - Finance annually recurring expenses with short term debt and long term investments with term debt - Monitor depreciation to plan for new equipment costs 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

24 # 5 Undercapitalization Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

25 Debt and Equity are friends Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

26 Accounting Principle: A = L + E Asset Liability Equity Inventory $3,000,000 Equipment $300,000 Intangible $15,000 Line of Credit $2,000,000 Term Loan $120,000 Retained Earnings $600,000 Capital Contributed $595, Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

27 Choose your sliding scale Plan B Plan C Plan D Plan M Plan N Plan Z 5% of equity No voting rights 5% of equity Management role 5% of equity Voting rights 25% of equity No voting rights 25% of equity Voting rights 100% of equity Voting rights 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

28 # 5 Undercapitalization - Aim for < 3:1 Debt: Equity ratio - Finding an investor does not mean giving up control 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

29 # 4 Underinvestment in software Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

30 Customer Relationship Management (CRM) List of customers and contact info Sales history Shipping address Shipment details Length of membership Available inventory for sale Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

31 Measuring depletion Cased Goods as of: % of # Starting Release Yr. % Release Vintage Varietal of cases Volume Elapsed Depleted Date 2015 Caberent Sauvignon 4,000 6,000 10% 33% Nov Zinfandel 5,000 5,500 2% 9% Dec Tempranillo 400 1,300 35% 69% Aug Merlot 2,000 4,000 21% 50% Oct Chardonnay 1,500 2,600 46% 42% Jul Red Wine 1,000 8,000 34% 88% Aug Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

32 Discount vs Special Release 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

33 # 4 Underinvestment in software - Give customers a customized experience - Track your inventory s sales trajectory 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

34 # 3 Distribution is easy money Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

35 Pros Cons Brand exposure Confirmation of quality Restrictive pricing Keep distributor interested Locked in partnership Loss of brand control Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

36 Wine Shelf Wine Club Flagship Red Flagship White Two price points Limited Releases Library Wines Unusual varieties Unusual packaging Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

37 # 3 Distribution is easy money - Research distribution laws and partner options - Offer your wine club something special - Keep your higher margined tasting room stocked first 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

38 # 2 Producing too many SKUs Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

39 Which do people actually like? Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

40 People are all unique snowflakes Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

41 Wines profits are black and 2014 Viognier 2014 Cabernet Sauvignon # of cases 500 # of cases 500 price $ 350 price $ 500 Revenue $ 175,000 Revenue $ 250,000 grape $ 22,000 grape $ 28,000 yeast $ 2,500 yeast $ 2,500 nutrition $ 100 nutrition $ 100 lab supplies $ 1,500 lab supplies $ 1,500 filter pads $ 50 filter pads $ 50 bottle $ 7,500 bottle $ 8,000 cork $ 1,000 cork $ 1,000 label $ 1,000 label $ 3,000 labor $ 8,000 labor $ 8,000 depreciation $ 10,000 depreciation $ 16,000 COGS $ 53,650 COGS $ 68,150 Gross Margin 69% Gross Margin 73% Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

42 # 2 Producing too many SKUs - Produce wines people are buying - Understand the gross margin of each SKU and which are dragging profits down 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey 21 February

43 # 1 Imbalance of case production and case sales Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

44 Production : Sales 1:1 Acceptable Reasons Growing production Small vintage Longer aging SKUs Unacceptable Reasons Sluggish sales Swimming in an ocean of wine Wrong kind of liquidity Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

45 Ways to slow production Sell estate fruit Cancel short term contracts in advance Sell excess wine instead of bottling Explore alternative sales channels Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

46 # 1 Imbalance of Case Production and Case Sales - Sell what you produce - Don t produce what you can t sell - Slow production if you have slow sales Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

47 #10 Improper sourcing strategy #9 Ownership bleeds company #8 Underinvestment in bookkeeper #7 Poor wine quality #6 Ignorance of Approaching CAPEX #5 Undercapitalization #4 Underinvestment in software #3 Distribution is easy money #2 Producing too many SKUs #1 Imbalance of case production to case sales Annual Unified Wine Conditions Wine Symposium Survey 21 February

48 2017 Annual TWGAA Conference Top 10 Financial Planning Mistakes Amanda Sims, Associate, Silicon Valley Bank