Wine Intelligence Compass
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1 Wine Intelligence Compass Strategic planning tool to understand the global wine market attractiveness VI International Wine Marketing Seminar Fondazione Edmund Mach San Michele all Adige November 2015 Wine Intelligence
2 An introduction Wine Intelligenceto Wine Intelligence: Connecting wine businesses with knowledge and insight 2
3 Introducing Wine Intelligence Not everything that can be counted counts......and not everything that counts can be counted Albert Einstein 3
4 Wine researchers what are our skills? In-depth knowledge of: 1. Wine consumers around the world 1,100+ wine related projects over the past 12 years 1. Producers and association needs 1. Legal dependencies and market regulations 1. Wine production global trends clients worked with over the past 12 years +35 markets studied 4
5 Our clients: different needs and culture, big and small 5
6 Our clients: different politics involved 6
7 How to do business better in the global wine markets 7
8 1. INFORMATION & KNOWLEDGE It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Sir Arthur Ignatius Conan Doyle, British writer 8
9 Every humans job: answering questions 1. Trust your gut feeling 2. Trust experts 3. Trust the supernatural 4.Do some research! 9
10 Parker s 2004 predictions Wine web will go mainstream: Yes both online and offline World bidding for top wines: Yes, but now China s bubble exploded France will feel the squeeze: Yes Corks will come out: A bit, but not in emerging markets, very slow in USA Spain will be a star: Is my Spanish colleague s dream.. Malbec will be a hit: Outside USA? California s Central Coast will rule USA: Apparently not Southern Italy will ascend: Apparently yes Unoaked wine will find an audience: Yes Value will be valued: Absolutely yes Diversity will be the word: Yes Distribution will be revolutionised: Slower progress than expected 10
11 Conducting research We re all researchers when we take a different route in the car to see if it s faster when we choose a bottle of wine when we ask our friends for advice when we post pictures on Facebook when we need to understand how to invest our limited resources 11
12 Question : Where to invest and why? Angola Czech Republic Ireland Peru Spain Argentina Denmark Italy Philippines Sweden Australia Finland Japan Poland Switzerland Austria France Macau Portugal Taiwan Belgium & Lux Germany Malaysia Romania Thailand Brazil Greece Mexico Russia Turkey Canada Hong Kong Netherlands Singapore UAE Chile Hungary New Zealand Slovakia UK China India Nigeria South Africa USA Colombia Indonesia Norway South Korea Vietnam 12
13 Question: What information do we need? Angola Czech Republic Ireland Peru Spain Argentina Denmark Italy Philippines Sweden Australia Finland Japan Poland Switzerland Austria France Macau Portugal Taiwan Belgium & Lux Germany Malaysia Romania Thailand Brazil Greece Mexico Russia Turkey Canada Hong Kong Netherlands Singapore UAE Chile Hungary New Zealand Slovakia UK China India Nigeria South Africa USA Colombia Indonesia Norway South Korea Vietnam 13
14 Test 14
15 1 Which wine market is bigger? (1000 9L cases) UK China Germany 15
16 1 Which wine market is bigger? (1000 9L cases) UK China Germany 123, , ,000 31, , Source: IWSR 2015 consumption data for
17 2 Which country has a greater number of wine drinkers? UK China (imp) Germany 17
18 2 Which country has a greater number of wine drinkers? UK 2 39 (78%) China (imp) 3 38 (4%) Germany 1 45 (69%) Source: Wine Intelligence 18
19 19
20 3 Which state has the highest corruption index? Brazil China Russia 20
21 3 Which state has the highest corruption index? Brazil China Russia Source: Transparency International
22 4 Who has more Starbucks (exc USA)? 22
23 4 Who has more Starbucks (exc USA)? 1 China 2 Canada 3 Japan 4 UK 5 South Korea 23
24 2. STRATEGY If you re entirely comfortable with your strategy, there s a strong chance it isn t very good Roger L. Martin, Canadian Thinker Author Advisor Speaker 24
25 How can we combine information and knowledge into a strategy to prioritise the investments in the global wine market? 25
26 Measuring market attractiveness The market classification combines economic measures with wine market potential measures to determine total market attractiveness Economic measures Adult population size GDP per capita & trend GNI per capita Purchasing power parity Unemployment rate Corruption index Globalization measure (no. of Starbuck s + no. of McDonald's per capita) Wine Intelligence Compass Wine market measures Wine market volume & trend Imported wine volume & trend Per capita consumption & trend Wine market value & trend Wine market unit price Wine drinking population and potential growth Market accessibility 26
27 Market attractiveness 50 markets analysed Wine Intelligence Compass Market selection: top 25 by total wine consumption (still light wine IWSR 2014) plus 25 markets selected by Wine Intelligence based on their interesting nature and importance to the future of the global wine industry 27
28 Market attractiveness Market potential for wine Results of Compass evaluation Economic measures Wine Intelligence Compass Source: Wine Intelligence Compass model
29 Market attractiveness Results of Compass evaluation Wine Intelligence Compass Source: Wine Intelligence Compass model
30 Market classification Five distinct groups with differing wine volumes, average growth rates and per capita consumption MATURE ESTABLISHED GROWTH EMERGING NEW EMERGING Traditional producers. Volumes declining Strong historical growth, have reached potential Wine becoming mainstream Growth from low base Wine new but growing fast Wine Intelligence Compass
31 Five distinct groups with differing wine volumes, average growth rates and per capita consumption MATURE ESTABLISHED GROWTH EMERGING NEW EMERGING 51% 15% 19% 14% 1% Annual growth rate: Annual growth rate: Annual growth rate: Annual growth rate: -1.2% -1.1% 2.1% 3.0% Annual growth rate: Per capita consumption: Per capita consumption: Per capita consumption: Per capita consumption: Per capita consumption: >1 (in litters) Wine Intelligence Compass (in litters) (in litters) (in litters) 6.0% (in litters) 31
32 Five distinct groups with differing wine volumes, average growth rates and per capita consumption MATURE ESTABLISHED GROWTH EMERGING NEW EMERGING Traditional producers. Volumes declining Strong historical growth, have reached potential Wine becoming mainstream Growth from low base Wine new but growing fast Current mind-set Volume Professional structure Saturation Future Growth rate Investment and risk Wine Intelligence Compass
33 Wine Intelligence global market classification MATURE ESTABLISHED GROWTH EMERGING NEW EMERGING Traditional producers. Volumes declining Strong historical growth, have reached potential Wine becoming mainstream Growth from low base Wine new but growing fast Markets Markets Markets Markets Markets Germany (2) France (15) Austria (16) Italy (20) Chile (29) Spain (31) Argentina (33) Hungary (34) Portugal (37) Romania (39) Greece (42) Slovenia (46) Wine Intelligence Compass United Kingdom (4) Switzerland (5) Australia (8) Norway (9) United States (1) The Netherlands (10) Japan (3) Sweden (12) Canada (7) Denmark (14) Hong Kong (11) Belgium & Luxembourg (21) New Zealand (22) Finland (30) Ireland (35) South Africa (41) China (6) South Korea (13) Singapore (17) Russia (18) Poland (19) United Arab Emirates (23) Brazil (25) Mexico (26) Czech Republic (27) Taiwan (28) Slovakia (32) Colombia (38) Peru (43) Angola (50) Malaysia (24) Turkey (36) India (40) Vietnam (44) Philippines (45) Thailand (47) Indonesia (48) Nigeria (49) 33
34 Wine Intelligence global market classification MATURE ESTABLISHED GROWTH EMERGING NEW EMERGING Markets where wine has reached its potential with stable or declining volumes Markets with strong historical growth which is tailing off Markets where wine is becoming a mainstream product and experiencing growth Markets where wine is experiencing growth and shows potential from a relatively low base Markets where wine is still a relatively new and unknown beverage, but showing potential Markets Markets Markets Markets Markets Germany (2) France (15) Austria (16) Italy (20) Chile (29) Spain (31) Argentina (33) Hungary (34) Portugal (37) Romania (39) Greece (42) Slovenia (46) United Kingdom (4) Switzerland (5) Australia (8) Norway (9) United States (1) The Netherlands (10) Japan (3) Sweden (12) Canada (7) Denmark (14) Hong Kong (11) Belgium & Luxembourg (21) New Zealand (22) Finland (30) Ireland (35) Source: Wine Intelligence Compass model South Africa (41) China (6) South Korea (13) Singapore (17) Russia (18) Poland (19) United Arab Emirates (23) Brazil (25) Mexico (26) Czech Republic (27) Taiwan (28) Slovakia (32) Colombia (38) Peru (43) Angola (50) Malaysia (24) Turkey (36) India (40) Vietnam (44) Philippines (45) Thailand (47) Indonesia (48) Nigeria (49) 34
35 Applying the BCG matrix Investment strategies If we compare our model to the Boston Consulting Group matrix, the five market categories match up with the Question Marks / Stars / Cows / Dogs definitions. Stars investment strategy: Invest and expect high returns GROWTH GROWTH MARKETS MARKETS EMERGING EMERGING MARKETS MARKETS Question Marks NEW EMERGING EMERGING NEW MARKETS MARKETS investment strategy: Select a limited number of markets and penetrate with caution ESTABLISHED ESTABLISHED MARKETS MARKETS Cash Cows investment strategy: Implement good pricing strategy and siphon off profits Wine Intelligence Compass Dogs MATURE MATURE MARKETS MARKETS investment strategy: Restructure the portfolio and invest only to meet specific needs 35
36 How Italy as a brand is doing in the top 5 wine markets? Top 3 value and volume (source: IWSR 2015) Top 3 in terms of % of people who have bought wine from a specific Country of Origin in the past 6 months (source: Wine Intelligence) Wine Intelligence Compass
37
38 3. VISION & PEOPLE The key skills are confidence in your ability to follow your vision, the ability to listen to others and the art of delegation Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Group
39 How we build a strategy Vision People s / organizations dreams of what they want to be People The most important company s product and the first-line Brand Advocates 39
40 Vision statement: Defines an organisations dream Vision statements should: Focus on aspirations Rarely change or be altered Not necessarily be limited to your specific industry sector or function Consider the PEOPLE as the key elements of the business 40
41 So, how can we do business better in the global wine market? Information & Knowledge Strategy Vision & People 41
42 So, how can we do business better in the global wine market? Vision & People Information & Knowledge Strategy 42
43 43
44 Grazie! Daniele Gozzi Senior Research Analyst Wine Intelligence 2015 Wine Intelligence 109 Maltings Place. 169 Tower Bridge Road. London. SE1 3LJ Telephone: +44 (0) Web:
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