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1 2007 Sonoma Research Associates - All rights reserved.

2 Practical Applications of the Price Elasticity of Demand Presented by Dan Karnowsky, President Sonoma Research Associates Presented at Competitive Forces Affecting the Wine and Wine Grape Industries: An International Conference on World Wine Markets University of California, Davis Davis, California August

3 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: 3

4 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue 4

5 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally 5

6 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally 6

7 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally Reduce Costs 7

8 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally Reduce Costs Reduce Inventory Cost by Accurately Estimating Demand 8

9 Sonoma Research Associates Uses Price Elasticity of Demand to Answer Two Basic Questions 9

10 Sonoma Research Associates Uses Price Elasticity of Demand to Answer Two Basic Questions How Much Can I Sell 10

11 Sonoma Research Associates Uses Price Elasticity of Demand to Answer Two Basic Questions How Much Can I Sell How Much Can I Charge 11

12 How Much Can I Sell Price Elasticity of Demand help firms determine what quantity will be sold at various prices. 12

13 How Much Can I Sell Price Elasticity of Demand help firms determine what quantity will be sold at various prices. For example, if a winery is considering a price change, price elasticity of demand will tell them what will happen to quantity sold and revenue resulting from the price change. 13

14 Estimated Annual Case Volume, Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand at a Price of $16 per 750 ML Bottle for a Rosenblum Zinfadel Estimated Annual Sales (Cases) 631 Estimated Annual Revenue $ 121, Estimated Price Elasticity

15 Estimated Annual Case Volume, Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand at a Price of $16 per 750 ML Bottle for a Rosenblum Zinfadel Estimated Annual Sales (Cases) 631 Estimated Annual Revenue $ 121, Estimated Price Elasticity 1.68 More Importantly, Knowing How Price Elasticity Varies by Month Tells You How Sales Will Vary by Month. 15

16 Estimated Monthly Case Volume, Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand at a Price of $16 per 750 ML Bottle for a Rosenblum Zinfadel Estimated Estimated Estimated Monthly Sales (Cases) Monthly Revenue Price Elasticity January 48 $ 9, February 70 $ 13, March 52 $ 9, April 37 $ 7, May 49 $ 9, June 42 $ 8, July 37 $ 7, August 49 $ 9, September 43 $ 8, October 61 $ 11, November 63 $ 12, December 81 $ 15, Annual Cases Sold Annual Revenue $ 121,222.12

17 Accurately Forecasting Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue by Meeting Demand During Peak Months 17

18 Accurately Forecasting Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue by Meeting Demand During Peak Months Reduce Inventory Costs by Reducing Shipments During Low Demand Months 18

19 Accurately Forecasting Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue by Meeting Demand During Peak Months Reduce Costs by Reducing Inventory During Low Demand Months This Same Type of Forecast Can Be Done Regionally As Well As Temporally 19

20 20 How Much Can I Charge

21 How Much Can I Charge Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to Price Strategically, Both Regionally and Temporally 21

22 22 When Should I Adjust Price

23 When Should I Adjust Price Price Elasticity of Demand allows Wineries to effectively price discriminate Throughout the year 23

24 When Should I Adjust Price Price Elasticity of Demand allows Wineries to effectively price discriminate Throughout the year For Example, demand changes during the holiday months of October, November & December. Price Elasticity of Demand allows Wineries to take advantage of these demand changes through strategic pricing. 24

25 Price Elasticity of Demand By Month Estimated for a Seghesio Zinfandel Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price Elasticity

26 Where Am I Most Competitive Price Elasticity of Demand allows wineries to effectively price discriminate geographically 26

27 Where Am I Most Competitive Price Elasticity of Demand allows wineries to effectively price discriminate geographically For example, if demand differs from location to location, Price Elasticity of Demand allows wineries to take advantage of these demand changes through strategic pricing. 27

28 Price Elasticity of Demand in California by Region, Estimated for Turning Leaf Merlot City Los Angeles San Diego Sacramento San Francisco Price Elasticity of Demand

29 How Much Should I Charge Price Elasticity of Demand allows Wineries to estimate the maximum price consumers are willing to pay for your wine 29

30 Pacific Rim Sold 4,390 Cases of Dry Riesling for $9.95 Per Bottle. Average Price Per 750 ml Bottle ,390 Annual Cases Sold 30

31 Pacific Rim Sold 4,390 Cases of Dry Riesling for $9.95 Per Bottle. Average Price Per 750 ml Bottle We Estimated that they could have charged a price of $ ,390 Annual Cases Sold 31

32 Pacific Rim Sold 4,390 Cases of Dry Riesling for $9.95 Per Bottle. Average Price Per 750 ml Bottle We Estimated that they could have charged a price of $ That 65 cent difference results in $34,242. 4,390 Annual Cases Sold 32

33 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: 33

34 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue 34

35 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally 35

36 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally 36

37 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally Reduce Costs 37

38 Effective Use of Price Elasticity of Demand Allows Wineries to: Increase Revenue Strategic Pricing Regionally Strategic Pricing Temporally Reduce Costs Reduce Inventory Cost by Accurately Estimating Demand 38

39 39 Increased Revenue

40 Increased Revenue Decreased Costs 40

41 Increased Revenue Decreased Costs = Increased Profit 41

42 Glen Ellen, California (707) Sonoma Research Associates - All rights reserved.

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