Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy
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1 UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE Department of Agronomy and Land Management Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy Simone Orlandini, Valentina Di Stefano, Annalena Puglisi Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agro Meteorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture. Oscarsborg,, Norway COST ACTION 734 ET - Climate Risks in Vulnerable Areas: Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies (WMO)
2 Grapevine: high quality of production sensible to environmental change longer growing season Increase temperature phenological phases anticipated risk of decrease of productions Napa Valley (California): flowering anticipated of more then 20 days ( ). Increasing of frozen Risk reduction of bud productivity (Nemani et al., 2001) Bordeaux: anticipated and shorter phenological phases, longer growing season (Jones and Davis, 2000) Veneto (Italia): anticipated Merlot flowering (Chiaudani et al., 2007) Oregon: increase elevation limit for vegetation of grapevine (from 180 to 300 m asl) (Sergo, 2007) Australia: quality changed in the last 50 years (Powley, 2007)
3 Olive is a bio-indicator for the Mediterranean climate high temperature bloom anticipated (data get from pollen bulletin) Max [pollen] anticipation= 8.5 days/1 C (Chuine et al., 1998) Olive cultivated up to England (McCarthy, 2006; Coldiretti, 2007)
4 Aims 1 Homogenization of the historical series of temperature (data of Tuscany region, Italy) Result are homogeneous historical series 2 Analysis of the trend of last 50 years 3 Analysis of the potential effects of change and variability on the grapevine and olive responses
5 Material and methods IBIMET CNR data base agrometeorological stations analysed on the basis of > Number of years < % missing value Regional area covering 22 termometric stations Daily Tmax e Tmin
6
7 Name Lat UTM_X Long UTM_Y Elevation (m.s.l.m.) Station characteristics Arezzo Boscolungo Camaldoli Castel del Piano Castelnuovo Garf Elba Calamita Firenzuola Grosseto Livorno Lucca Massa Massa Marittima Montepulciano Orbetello Peretola Pisa Pistoia Pontremoli San Miniato Siena Vallombrosa Volterra
8 Homogenization of the historical series original data Test of data quality Craddock test Tmax >= 42 C Tmin < - 15 C >= 25 C Tmin o Tmax = for 5 or + days Tmin e Tmax = for 3 or + days Tmin > Tmax Reference stations: not only one but 10 stations Homogenization Metadata Homogenization made by trigonometric fitting, reference period true up in the not homogeneity year Auer et al., 2005 Maugeri et al., 2004 (UNIMI) Brunetti et al., 2006 (CNR-ISAC)
9 Days with minimum temperature < 7 C (olive) Agroclimatic indices Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 10 C) Durations of vegetative season (threshold: 0 C) Degree day accumulation Mean of the maximum temperature Huglin index (grape) Mean of the minimum temperature Date of Bud-break (grape) Mean of the range of temperature Date of Flowering (grape) Frequency of frosts Date of growth (grape) Date of the last frost event Minimum temperature of the last frost event Date of the first autumnal frost Minimum temperature of the first autumnal frost September October mean temperature (olive) Chilling requirement (olive)
10 The historical series analysis Linear regression slope (annual variation rate) significativity p { moving mean (5 year) Climate variability analysis standard deviations (5 years)
11 RESULTS
12 before Craddock Test (Firenzuola, Tmax) after
13 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the Tmin (Grosseto station). Annual trend
14 Sub-periods analysis Craddock Test for the minimum temperature (Grosseto station). Annual trend.
15 AGROCLIMATIC INDICES
16 Duration of vegetative season threshold 0 C threshold 10 C 300 Peretola - DSV 0 C y = x R 2 = Montepulciano - DSV 10 C y = x R 2 = (Peretola station) (p<0.05) (Montepulciano station) (p<0.05)
17 Maximum and minimum temperature Increase of temperature Minimum temperature trend period July- August- September (Massa station) (p<0.001). Maximum temperature trend period July- August- September (Livorno station) (p<0.01)
18 Maximum and minimum temperature ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ April July August September Tmin ~ + ++ ~ Tmax ~ ~ /+ ++ ~
19 Grapevine phenology The sky-blue data are the ones with longer phenological phases. The red data are the stations in which the heat-need is not reach.
20 Frost and phenology Giorni giuliani frost risks Montepulciano Tempo (anni) 120 Lucca Increase of frost risks Giorni giuliani Tempo (anni)
21 Flowering phase Trend of anticipation: 8 days during the study period Arezzo station (p<0.01).
22 Ripening period 21 days during the study period -21 giorni -21 Day! Grosseto (p<0.001).
23 Ripening period
24 Huglin index Values from to (+11%) quality IH High quality wine Dessert wine ( tmed 10) + ( t IH = max 10) K
25 Huglin Index
26 Degree day accumulation Values from C Elba Calamita station(p<0.001)
27 Degree day accumulation interannual variability Moving mean and standard deviations of the STA index (Montepulciano station). The mean ( ) is about 1959 C. The δ 2 shows a significant trend (p<0.01).
28 Degree day accumulation
29 Chilling requirement (hours with T<7.2 C) Reduction: 1514 hours 1113 hours Ore Vernalizzazione - Massa M.ma Tempo (anni) Massa Marittima station. (p<0.001). y = -8,5339x ,7 R 2 = 0,
30 September October mean temperature 22.0 y = 0,0229x - 28,075 R 2 = 0,0923 p<0, Temperatura ( C) Tempo (anni)
31 Conclusions Better quality of the data thank to the homogenization Increase of Tmin, Tmax, degree day accumulation Tendency of the anticipation for the phenological phases > Risks (late frost) Fast growth rate < time for ripening Lengthening of growing season increase of Huglin index increase inter annual variability Affecting productions and quality Shorten Chilling period problems for the optimal threshold for the olive
32 Thank you for your attention
Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy
UNIVERSITY OF FLORENCE Department of Agronomy and Land Management Current trends of agroclimatic indices applied to grapevine and olive tree in central Italy Simone Orlandini, Valentina Di Stefano, Annalena
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