THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF PREMIUMIZATION

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1 THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF PREMIUMIZATION Erin Kirschenmann, Assistant Editor Wine Business Monthly, Moderator Robert Trone, Co-Owner Total Wine & More Tony Correia, Owner The Correia Company

2 The Premiumization of California Wine Vineyards Wine Industry Financial Symposium September 26, 2017 Tony Correia THE CORREIA COMPANY

3 HISTORY Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

4 Premium Markets - Short 2010 and 2011 crops fostered The Great Grape Shortage of > Early 2017; The New Grape Sourcing Market The Pursuit of Fruit Wineries returned to the market, aggressively contracting for grapes, and buying vineyards, and land to plant new vineyards. Higher grape prices push vineyard and land prices even higher. Higher land and vineyard prices push grape prices EVEN higher. Sea Change in grape and vineyard pricing

5 Why is this man smiling? How one big deal triggered a major scramble in the North Coast wine industry

6 Premium Markets 2017 The Stagecoach Vineyard Sale fostered The Great Grape Shortage of ; The Even Newer, Improved Grape Sourcing Market The Pursuit of Fruit Stagecoach supplied premium fruit to 100 ± Wineries, who will soon need to replace that fruit source. Higher grape prices push vineyard and land prices even higher. Higher land and vineyard prices push grape prices EVEN HIGHER. Sea Change in grape and vineyard pricing

7 $ Growth is at the Top = Premiumization > $20 $15-20 $12-15 $9-12 $6-9 $3-6 < $3 Growth (%) of Wine Sales, by Price Segment -4.1% -2.8% 0.5% 4.8% 7.0% 9.5% 8.5% 52 Weeks ending June 17, % -1% 2% 5% 8%

8 Annualized Growth Rates, by $ Segment 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 $9-12 $12-15 $15-20 > $20

9

10 The Wine Cycle; California Chardonnay; 1976 > ,000 $1, , , , , , , ,000 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0 $

11 Is the Cycle THIS TIME, Broken?? IT S DIFFERENT

12 Isn t this a lovely wine?? Parker 95. $350 a bottle What a cool guy!!!! 2007

13 2009 HWY 29 - RUTHERFORD

14 Isn t this a lovely wine?? COSTCO, $15 a bottle What a cool guy!!!! 2009

15 Isn t this a lovely wine?? Cult Napa Cab, $500 a bottle #cultcab #wineguy 2017 #thinkshesgetttinlucky

16 The Math of Grapes

17 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% RISK California Chardonnay Price Volatility vs Average District Price $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

18 $7,000 $6,000 Average Grape Prices $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 D4 CS D3 PN $

19 Napa Cabernet, Production vs Pricing 75 1,000 Tons 65 $ / Ton $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

20 $450 $400 $350 Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon Total Crop Value ($Millions) $300 $250 $200 $

21 VINEYARD VALUES; PER-ACRE $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 NAPA COUNTY ~~ VINEYARD VALUE RANGES By Location Category vs Average Napa Grape Prices Sources; Annual CALASFMRA "Trends" report, Annual Calif. Grape Crush Reports, Wine Industry Investment Consulting $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $250,000 $5,000 $200,000 $4,000 $150,000 $3,000 $100,000 $2,000 $50,000 $0 Total Range Outlying Secondary Prime Cab Whites $1,000 $0

22 VINEYARD VALUES; PER-ACRE $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 NAPA COUNTY ~~ VINEYARD VALUE RANGES By Category vs Average Napa Grape Prices Sources; Annual CALASFMRA "Trends" report, Annual Calif. Grape Crush Reports, The Correia Company, Wine Industry Investment Consulting $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $150,000 $4,000 $3,000 $100,000 $2,000 $50,000 $1,000 Total Range $0 Outlying Secondary Prime Cab Whites 90th % $

23 Vineyard Values, Thousands Average Grape Price $175 $150 $125 $100 Sonoma; Dist 3; Vineyard Values vs. Grape Prices $3,500 Pinot Noir $3,000 Cabernet $2,500 $75 $50 $25 $0 Chardonnay $2,000 $1,500 $1,000

24 $100,000 $90,000 Mendocino County District One Anderson Valley $3,000 $80,000 $70,000 Pinot Noir $2,500 $60,000 $2,000 $50,000 All Varieties $1,500 $40,000 $30,000 $1,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Chardonnay Inland Mendocino $500 $0

25 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Lake County District Two Cabernet Sauvignon $2,500 $2,300 $2,100 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700

26 Vineyard Values, Thousands $72 $62 $52 $42 $32 $22 $12 $2 Monterey; District 7; Values vs. Grape Prices Pinot Noir Cabernet Chardonnay $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 Average Grape Prices Thousands

27 Vineyard Values Average Grap Price SLO/SB; District 8; Values vs. Grape Prices $62,000 $3,000 $52,000 Pinot Noir $2,500 $42,000 $2,000 $32,000 $1,500 $22,000 $12,000 Chardonnay $1,000 $2,000 Cabernet $500

28 Issues, Risks, Opportunities, and Challenges Premiumization (and Un-Premiumization?) Consolidation; the Big get BIGGER Empty Brands in search of grapes Blends allow more sourcing diversification

29 Impacts Hierarchy of Appellations, and Appellation Creep Vineyard Designations; Classification of Crus? Rising Tide Lifts All Boats; Premium areas expanding, bleeding into Secondary. but Marginal Areas always see greatest Strength and rising prices in Up Markets, but also always Suffer the most in Down Markets

30 Challenges Limited Amount of Vineyards and Land Available Napa essentially planted out Diminishing Supply of Independent Vineyards, so Fewer grapes available on the open market, amidst a Perception of Premium Grape Shortage Indexed Contracts and rising land prices will continue to drive grape prices up, can wine prices follow?

31 Thank you! And Drink More California Wine!!!

32 OVERVIEW Total Wine and More Overview Premiumization Sonoma/Napa Downside? 32 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

33 STORES NATIONWIDE

34 LOCATIONS 171 Stores 20 States 34 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

35 STORE COUNT Total Wine & More Store Count Historical Growth 35 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

36 SALES $3,000 Total Wine & More Sales Historical Growth ($ in Millions) 2,400 2,700 2,100 1,800 $1, ,100 1,300 1,500 $ AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

37 2016 SALES MIX 17% 2,500 Beer Items Total Wine & More Sales Mix 6,000-8,000 Wine Items 47% 32% 3,000 Spirits Items 37 CREATING AMERICA S FOCUS, INTENSITY, WINEAND SUPERSTORE ACCOUNTABILITY

38 PREMIUMIZATION Downside? 38 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

39 DOWNSIDE What if your cost goes up? the Premiumization trend changes? the consumers switch brands? 39 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

40 TREND CHANGES Stock market all time high Medium household income all time high 40 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

41 ECONOMIC CYCLE = TREND CHANGE When the economy has a downturn, consumers will switch to lower priced items 41 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

42 THE TREND HAS CHANGED Wine: 2015 wine $ 5.8%, Volume 2.2% - AUP + 3.6% 2016 wine $ 4.3%, Volume 1.7 % - AUP + 2.6% 2017 July YTD $ 2.3 %, Volume.4% - AUP +1.9% 42 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

43 OTHER TRENDS IMPACTING PREMIUMIZATION Greater Customer Openness to new brands Growth of new wine regions, Growth of new brands 43 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

44 TRENDS RETAIL NEW BRANDS Greater openness to new brands, when the new brands meet the consumers needs: Taste profile Emotional connection Favorable price/value relationship 44 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

45 CONSUMER SONOMA - NAPA LOYALTY How much brand equity does Sonoma/Napa county have? Will consumers switch from Sonoma/Napa wines? 45 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

46 DOWNSIDE Over time, other wine regions will continue to create wines matching the taste profiles of higherend consumers 46 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

47 WINE REGIONS - GROWTH New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc Paso Robles - Cabernet Italy Prosecco Argentina & Chile - Cabernet and Chardonnay France Pinot Noir, Rose Taste, Emotional Connection, Price\Value 47 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

48 NEW TRADITIONAL BRANDS New regions: New Zealand Whitehaven, Oyster Bay, Kim Crawford Australia 19 Crimes California Butter, Josh World sourced Cupcake France Rose Brands 48 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

49 NEW FOCUS/PRIVATE BRANDS Kirkland Trader Joe s Independent Wine Shops Kroger/Safeway 49 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

50 THANK YOU! 50 AMERICA S WINE SUPERSTORE

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