The People of Perth Past, Present and Future
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1 The People of Perth Past, Present and Future John Henstridge Data Analysis Australia UDIA Pemberton 2003
2 Overview The Past Population growth Population Structure The Present Future How we forecast What do we forecast UDIA Pemberton September Page 2
3 A Statisticians View The numbers and their meaning Look behind sources like the Census Three dimensions Demographic Geography Social And how these combine UDIA Pemberton September Page 3
4 Why Bother with Demographics? Directly impacts urban development UDIA Pemberton September Page 4
5 Trends in people, houses Both increasing Rates critical to urban development 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Persons 800, , , , , ,000 Households 400, ,000 Detail even more important 200, , Year UDIA Pemberton September Page 5
6 Health Needs Heavily weighed to the elderly 90 and over Accident and Emergency Young adults have a minor peak Accidents Age Females Males Where do you place services And people move to services Rate per 1000 UDIA Pemberton September Page 6
7 Justice Youth orientation 60 and over Imprisonment Urban environment affects crime Age Females Males Rate per 1000 UDIA Pemberton September Page 7
8 The Past Population since 1829 Perth now 75% of state population 2000 Population 1000's Rest of State Perth Year UDIA Pemberton September Page 8
9 Perth as part of Western Australia Now 75% of population Australians prefer the coast Are we a maritime nation? UDIA Pemberton September Page 9
10 1942 UDIA Pemberton September Page 10
11 Measuring Growth Census every fives years 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, Australian Census one of the best in the world Now readily available UDIA Pemberton September Page 11
12 1981 Perth reaches size of Adelaide UDIA Pemberton September Page 12
13 1986 America s Cup UDIA Pemberton September Page 13
14 1991 UDIA Pemberton September Page 14
15 1996 UDIA Pemberton September Page 15
16 2001 Latest Census UDIA Pemberton September Page 16
17 Ages 1961 Age Profile 1961 Shaped by the war And the depression Baby boom dominates 32.5% aged less than 15 >20% at school Age Australia WA % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Proportion of Population UDIA Pemberton September Page 17
18 Ages 1981 Age Profile 1981 High growth has made WA young Mineral boom Australia WA Influx from the East Age Time of major development % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of Population UDIA Pemberton September Page 18
19 Ages 2001 Age profile 2001 Western Australia almost matches all Australia Age Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Pemberton September Page 19
20 The Present The past leaves an imprint on the present Who we are Where we live Same as but different from the rest of Australia UDIA Pemberton September Page 20
21 Age 0-40 Proportion of 0-4 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 50% UDIA Pemberton September Page 21
22 Age Proportion of 5-14 year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September Page 22
23 Age Proportion of year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100 UDIA Pemberton September Page 23
24 Age Proportion of year olds 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September Page 24
25 Age 60 + Proportion of 60 year olds and over 2001 CDs 0.1 to < 5% 5 to < 10% 10 to < 15% 15 to < 20% 20 to 100% UDIA Pemberton September Page 25
26 Household size Average Persons Per Household 2001 CDs 0.6 to < 2 2 to < 3 3 to < 4 4 to < 5 5 or more UDIA Pemberton September Page 26
27 The Future Forecasting is always difficult Especially when applied to the future UDIA Pemberton September Page 27
28 Forecasting Population Simple demographics People get older Some die More are born Some move away Some move in Measure using statistics Combine using mathematics UDIA Pemberton September Page 28
29 What a Model Looks Like Consider five year age groups And five year time periods E.g. from 1996 to 2001 Match Census years UDIA Pemberton September Page 29
30 Let most people age Move to the next age group The one exact thing Some do not make it Age specific mortality Well measured Very predictable UDIA Pemberton September Page 30
31 Add in births People produce babies Age specific birth rates Linked to adult females Well measured Births registered Reasonably predictable UDIA Pemberton September Page 31
32 Subtract emigration Add immigration Both also depend on age Intrastate Interstate Overseas Poorly measured Only from Census Poorly predicted Linked to economy UDIA Pemberton September Page 32
33 Put it together Complex when combined Still need to think of gender Most demographers think males irrelevant Do for each area Australia State Local area UDIA Pemberton September Page 33
34 What drives it? Births greatly outnumber deaths 25,000 births, 10,000 deaths Will do so for next 20 years Due to young profile Then Births will be static, deaths increase Migration from other states Young people aged Looking for jobs Depends strongly upon economy Keeps age profile young Few leaving UDIA Pemberton September Page 34
35 Birth rate declining Women having fewer children Declined to 1.7 per woman Not enough to sustain population Women having children at a greater age Greater time between generations Slows rate of change UDIA Pemberton September Page 35
36 Fertility Trends Boom and bust Economic factors Downward trend Fertility Below replacement Year UDIA Pemberton September Page 36
37 Migration Changing and Declining Australia less attractive to older sources Fewer immigrants from Europe WA less attractive to rest of Australia Resource industries less labour intensive Globalisation reduces Perth operations to branch offices UDIA Pemberton September Page 37
38 Implications for Population Population growth declining Current growth half due to aging This will disappear in 30 years Growth fed by migration UDIA Pemberton September Page 38
39 2011 UDIA Pemberton September Page 39
40 2021 UDIA Pemberton September Page 40
41 People are not everything Social structures also changing Gender equality Employment patterns Education UDIA Pemberton September Page 41
42 Household Size Heading down Continuing trend since Average Household Size Change in definition in 1985 UDIA Pemberton September Page 42
43 Household Structure Increase in small households Large households static 180, , , , , Dramatic change for only 10 years 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Household Size UDIA Pemberton September Page 43
44 Economic Changes In 1981 Gary Becker predicted that economic changes would affect family structures Families partly based upon economic marriage of convenience Economic benefit of being in a family less now We see it happening If you outsource cooking (restaurants, takeaway) and cleaning who needs a traditional wife? UDIA Pemberton September Page 44
45 How long will it take? Age profile 2001 Next 25 years will see population bulge reach limit Flat profile Low growth will follow New definition of elderly in community Age Australia WA Perth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Proportion of population UDIA Pemberton September Page 45
46 Implications for Developments Household size is declining Effect is part demographic, part social Demographic part can be predicted Social part means that family is together for a shorter period Demand for some housing will suddenly dry up Sufficient stock of four bedroom, two bathroom houses in suburbs Demand will switch to different styles UDIA Pemberton September Page 46
47 Summary Must understand the future population Forecasts are not certain What might happen is as important for planning as what will happen The past has 80% of the answer The future will reflect the past and present The tools lie in statistics and demography UDIA Pemberton September Page 47
48 Thank you
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