A review of South African agricultural exports

Transcription

1 23 October 2015 A review of South African agricultural Tinashe Kapuya, Head: International Trade and Investment 1. INTRODUCTION This article reviews South Africa s agricultural by reflecting on the top 20 commodities, ranked according to (i) (ii) volume,(iii) trade revenue, (iv) by share of South Africa s in the and (v) by South Africa s ranking in. In accordance to value rank, we take the top four products (which include oranges, wines, fresh grapes and maize) and analyse where South Africa s markets lie, and where potential market opportunities that exist. 1.1 Ranking according to export value Table 1 shows the top 20 agricultural products which were exported by South Africa in at HS-6 digit level. Also shown in Table 1 is the value exported in Millions of United States Dollar Currency (USD), the annual value for the period (), the share in the and the product ranking in the. In, South Africa contributed 0.5% of the total and ranked number 40th in the. Table 1: Top 20 South African agricultural, by value Code Product label value ($ mil) Total agricultural 9 315, imports, Share in Ranking in ' Oranges, fresh or dried ' Grape wines nes (in ctnr<=2l) ' Grapes, fresh ' Maize (corn) nes ' Apples, fresh ' Raw sugar, cane ' Grape wines nes (in ctnr > 2l)

2 ' Fresh or dried lemons ' Macadamia nuts ' Food preparations nes ' Pears and quinces, fresh ' ' Refined cane or beet sugar Cigarettes containing tobacco ' Maize (corn) seed ' Mandarins ' ' Undenaturd ethyl alcohol (80% vol/higher) Maize (corn) groats and meal ' Grapefruit, fresh or dried ' ' Animal feed preparations nes Mixtures of juices unfermented South Africa exported $9.3 billion worth of agricultural in, which constitutes 10% of the country s overall total for the year. - Oranges are the leading exported product, by value. Oranges accounted for $596 million (or 6%) of total agricultural. Despite their export value having declined by 1% between 2010 and, the exported volume actually increased by 2% over the same period. South Africa is the second largest exporter of oranges in the, and takes up 13.5% of global. From a citrus industry perspective, oranges, together with lemons, grapefruit and hybrids (soft citrus) make up a combined 11% of the country s total agricultural, valued at over $1 billion. In, South Africa was the 4 th largest grapefruit exporter, and the 6 th largest exporter of lemons and mandarins in the, respectively. - Grape wines (in containers less than or equal to 2 litres) were the second largest exported agricultural product, with $506 million worth of in. Grape wine in this category have declined by 3%, both by value and volume, between 2010 and. - However, bulk gape wine (in containers greater than 2 litres) have increased by 7% in and 15% in volume terms, over the same period. South Africa now has a larger share in bulk wine (6.6%) compared to in containers of 2liters or less (2.2%). In fact, South Africa is now the 7 th largest exporter of the former, and the 12 th largest exporter of the latter. - Fresh grape were $498 million in, making them the third most exported agricultural product. Fresh grapes have been growing by an annual average of 4% both by value and volume. South Africa was the 6 th largest grape exporter, accounting for 6.2% of global in. - Maize reached $450 million in, making it South Africa s fourth largest agricultural export. South Africa s for maize have grown by an average of 1% per year by value between 2010 and, but have declined by an average 1% by volume, over the same period. In, South Africa was the 10 th largest exporter of maize, with a global share of 1.5%. With the /15 drought, it is expected that South Africa s maize will decline significantly, with forecasts reflecting that the country will become a net importer of maize in Apples are South Africa s fifth largest agricultural export, with export revenues of $353 million in. South Africa is the 8 th largest exporter of apples in the, accounting for 4.7% of the s global. The country s value of apple have grown over the past five years by an annual average of 9%. However, volumes have declined by an average of 4% over the same period.

3 1.2 Ranking according to the annual trade revenue Table 2 shows South Africa s top 20 agricultural ranked by the annual average trade revenue over the period. According to this ranking, soybean oil crude have shown the highest growth over the five year period, growing by 168% per year in value. With an export value of $36 million, it South Africa s the 50 th largest export commodity, with a relatively small share in (0.5%). Nonetheless, South Africa is the 15 th largest exporter of this product in the. Durum wheat is South Africa s second fastest growing agricultural commodity export having shown a 60% per year over the period. With revenues of $26 million in, the product is ranked 74 th in terms of trade revenue, with a global trade share of 0.6%. South Africa is the 19 th largest exporter of this product in the. Bone-in and boneless beef cuts complete the top 5 fastest growing agricultural. For bone-in bovine cuts, export revenues have grown by an annual average of 40%, whereas boneless bovine cuts have grown by 39% (fresh) and 36% (frozen), respectively. With a global export share of 1%, South Africa is the 10 th largest exporter of bone-in frozen bovine cuts, which were worth $18 million. Boneless fresh cuts were $31 million while boneless frozen cuts were $30 million in, which represent 0.2% and 0.1% share of the global, respectively. This makes South Africa the 27 th and 29 th largest exporter of fresh and frozen bovine cuts, respectively. Table 2: Top 20 South African agricultural, ranked by export revenues ( ) Code ' Product label value ($ '000) growth in, growth in imports, Share in Ranking in Soya-bean oil crude, whether or not degummed ' Durum wheat ' Bovine cuts bone in, frozen ' Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled ' Bovine cuts boneless, frozen ' Macadamia nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled ' Avocados, fresh or dried Fowls (gallus domesticus), ' whole, frozen ' Maize (corn) seed ' Seeds, fruit and spores for sowing, nes ' Yogurt concentratd o not,sweetend o not,flavourd o contg fruit o cocoa ' Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength ' Vegetables, fresh or chilled nes ' Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc

4 ' Maize (corn) groats and meal ' Beer made from malt ' Non-alcoholic beverages nes, excluding fruit juices ' Soya-bean oil-cake & oth solid residues ' Apple juice, unfermented, ' Fresh or dried lemons Ranking according to trade volumes Table 3 shows South Africa s top 20 agricultural ranked by the annual average volumes over the period. From a volume growth perspective, soybean crude oil is the fastest growing export, with an annual average 166% between 2010 and. The second fastest growing commodity export by volume is maize seed, with an annual average growth of 56% over the past five years. Maize seed export revenues were roughly $153 million in which is 4% of the share of global. This made South Africa the 7 th largest exporter of maize seed in the in. Durum wheat volumes grew by an annual average of 55% between 2010 and, making it the third fastest growing product by volume. South Africa exported $26 million of durum wheat in which constitutes 0.6% of the s. This makes South Africa is the 19 th largest exporter of durum wheat in the. Fresh boneless bovine cuts are the fourth fastest growing markets by volume, growing at an average of 45% per year. With of $31 million, South Africa is the 27 largest exporter of the fresh boneless bovine cuts in the. Non-alcoholic beverages (which exclude fruit and vegetables) are the fifth fastest growing export having grown by 44% per year between 2010 and. South Africa exported $39 million of nonalcoholic beverages, which constitute 0.4% of global. Table 3: Top 20 South African agricultural, ranked by export volumes ( ) Code Product label Exporte d value ($ '000), imports, Share in ' Soya-bean oil crude, whether or not degummed ' Maize (corn) seed ' Durum wheat ' Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled ' Non-alcoholic beverages nes,excludg fruit/veg juices of headg No ' Macadamia nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled Ranking in

5 ' Waters incl mineral&aeratd,containg sugar o sweeteng matter o flavourd ' Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc ' Fowls (gallus domesticus), whole, frozen ' Bovine cuts bone in, frozen ' Soya-bean oil and its fractions, refined but not chemically modified ' Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength ' Milk not concentrated & unsweetened exceeding 1% not exceeding 6% fat ' Eggs, bird, in shell, fresh, preserved or cooked ' Maize (corn) groats and meal ' Sausage&sim prod of meat,meat offal/blood&food prep basd on these prod ' Maize (corn) flour ' Fruits, fresh nes ' Refined cane or beet sugar, solid, without flavouring or colouring matter ' Grape wines nes,incl fort&grape must,unfermntd by add alc,in ctnr > 2l Ranking by South Africa s export share in global - Table 4 shows South Africa s top 20 agricultural ranked by the country s share in in. Accordingly, macadamia nuts are the ranked 1 st among South Africa s agricultural in which the country obtains the largest share in. South Africa exported $198 million of macadamia nuts in, which accounted for 36% of the s of the product. Consequently, South Africa is the s leading exporter of macadamia nuts. - Maize groats and meal form the second largest exported agricultural product in which South Africa has a large share of global. In, the country exported $100 million worth of groats and meal, which account for 21% of the share of global the product, making South Africa the leading exporter. - South Africa 15.5% of the s processed pears, worth $31 million. This meant that South Africa was the third largest exporter of processed pears. Despite volumes growing by 4% per year, revenues have declined by 3% between 2010 and. - South Africa s processed apricot are 14.8% of the s total apricot, making the country the 3 rd largest export of apricots in the. The average the sector has been negative over the past five years with declining -5% and -4% by value and volume, respectively. - Grapefruit juice from South Africa made up 13.7% of the global total, which made South Africa the 4 th largest exporter in the. Grapefruit juice is also showing declines in - 1% by value and volume.

6 Table 4: Top 20 South African agricultural, ranked by share in () Code ' ' ' ' ' Product label Exporte d value ($ '000), growth in imports, Share in Ranking in Macadamia nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled Maize (corn) groats and meal Pears nes,o/w prep or presvd whether or not sugared,sweetened,spirited Apricots nes,o/w prep o presvd whether o not sugard,sweetend o spiritd Grapefruit juice, unfermented, Brix value > 20 at 20 C, whether or not ' Oranges, fresh or dried ' Plums and sloes, fresh ' Grapefruit, fresh or dried ' Fresh or dried lemons "Citrus limon, Citrus limonum" and limes "Citrus ' Peaches nes,o/w prep o presvd whether o not sugard,sweetend o spiritd ' Pears and quinces, fresh ' Spices nes ' Maize (corn) flour ' Grape wines nes,incl fort&grape must,unfermntd by add alc,in ctnr > 2l ' Grapes, fresh ' Mixtures of juices unfermentd spiritd whether o not sugard o sweet ' Seeds, fruit and spores for sowing, nes ' Fermented beverages nes (for example, cider, perry, mead, etc) ' Grapes, dried ' Apples, fresh Ranking by South Africa s ranking of - Table 5 shows South Africa s top 20 agricultural ranked by the country s ranking in in. - South Africa ranks 1 st in two commodities namely, macadamia nuts and maize groats and meal, with the country contributing 36% and 21% of global, respectively. Both commodities have shown exceptionally high levels of annual average both value and volume over past five years. - Oranges are ranked third in terms of South Africa s global standing, with the country being the 2 nd largest exporter of oranges in the.

7 - There are several agricultural commodities in which South Africa is ranked the 3 rd largest exporter globally. These include pears (processed), apricots (processed), plums (fresh), spices and vegetable products. - Of these products, plums are the largest in terms of export revenue, is plums, whose export revenue is $94 million. Plums have been growing at 10% per year by and 9% per year by volume from. Table 5: Top 20 South African agricultural, ranked by share in () Code Product label value ($ '000) ' Macadamia nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled ' Maize (corn) groats and meal ' Oranges, fresh or dried ' Pears nes,o/w prep or presvd whether or not sugared,sweetened,spirited ' Apricots nes,o/w prep o presvd whether o not sugard,sweetend o spiritd ' Plums and sloes, fresh ' Spices nes ' Vegetable products nes used primarily for human consumption ' Grapefruit juice, unfermented, Brix value > 20 at 20 C, whether or not ' Grapefruit, fresh or dried ' Orange juice&nes,unfermentd not spiritd,whether or not sugard or sweet ' Peaches nes,o/w prep o presvd whether o not sugard,sweetend o spiritd ' Maize (corn) flour ' Mixtures of juices unfermentd spiritd whether o not sugard o sweet ' Fermented beverages nes (for example, cider, perry, mead, etc) ' Grapes, dried , imports, Share in ' Fresh or dried lemons "Citrus limon, Citrus limonum" and limes "Citrus ' Grapes, fresh ' Seeds, fruit and spores for sowing, nes Ranking in 2. Where are South Africa s key markets?

8 Figure 1 through 5 illustrate the South Africa s export markets, with the export value of the product reflected by the bubble size. The map also indicates whether South Africa s are greater or less than the imports in the market (yellow indicate South Africa s export growth to is less than the s import growth from the ). The x-axis shows the share of the country s share in South Africa s, while the y-axis shows the countries annual average the country s imports from over the period. South Africa s top five agricultural by value that are analysed here include: oranges, grape wines (in containers less than or equal to 2 litres), grapes (fresh), maize and apples. These products contributed a combined $2.4 billion in export revenues in, which accounts for a quarter of the country s overall agricultural. 2.1 South Africa s export markets for oranges For oranges, South Africa exported $202 million into the European Union (EU15), which accounts for 34% of the country s product. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is South Africa s second largest market, taking up 10% of the country s orange. Russia is the third largest market taking up 9% of South Africa s, followed by Saudi Arabia with 8%. Completing the top 10 markets for South African oranges is the USA (5%), China (4%) and Kuwait (4%). Table 6: South Africa s top 10 markets for oranges value (USD thousand) (tons) Share in South Africa's Share of countries in imports value Import World EU UAE Russia Saudi Arabia USA China Kuwait

9 Figure 1: South Africa s markets for fresh oranges The bubble graph shows that the South Africa s orange exceeds the import Middle East countries such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. This means that the market share for South African oranges is growing in these key markets, which is perhaps a response to the industry s drive for export diversification away from the EU in light of the Citrus Black Spot (CBS) restrictions. Inevitably, South Africa s export the EU has become somewhat slower than the EU s import growth from the, with disaggregated statistics showing the Netherlands, France, and Spain strongly reflecting this trend. 2.3 South Africa s export markets for grape wines (in containers of less than or equal to 2 litres) The EU is the largest market for South Africa s grape wines, by far, accounting for 54%. North America consumes 18% of South Africa s wines, and this is evenly split between the USA and Canada. African markets are also among the major consumers of South African grape wines, with Namibia (6%), Nigeria (1.4%), Tanzania (1.2%) and Kenya (1.1%). Far East markets such as China (3.6%) and Japan (2.1%) are also among key markets for grape wines, while other markets such as Russia (1.1%) and UAE (1.6%) complete the 10 top markets for South Africa s grape wines. Table 7: South Africa s top 10 markets for grape wines (in containers <=2l) value (USD thousand) (tons) Share in South Africa's Share of countries in imports value Import value (USD thousand) World

10 EU Canada USA Namibia China Japan UAE Nigeria Tanzania Kenya Russia Figure 2: South Africa s markets for grape wines in containers of less than 2 litres Figure 2 shows a bubble graph of South Africa s top 20 markets for grape wine packaged in containers of less than or equal to 2 litres. With the exception of Japan, most of South Africa s markets are growing much faster than the country s to the respective countries. South Africa s under this particular grape wine product have been declining by an average 3% over the past five years, as the country shifted to more bulk wine, which have grown by five times the volume in comparison. The shift to bulk wine has been argued within the context of higher demand and cheaper packaging and logistics. 2.3 South Africa s export markets for fresh grapes The EU is still South Africa s largest grape wine market, by far, accounting for 72% of South Africa s, by in. The second largest market in Hong Kong, which takes up 5% of fresh grape with the United Arab Emirates with 3%. Outside of the EU, the Middle and Far East markets

11 seem to dominate the top 10 destinations for South Africa s grape wine, with Russia (3%), Norway (1%) and Canada (1%) being the only exceptions. Table 8: South Africa s top 10 markets for fresh grapes value ($ 000) (tons) Share in South Africa's Share of countries in imports value World (EU 28) Hong Kong UAE Russia Malaysia Norway Singapore Saudi Arabia China Canada Import Figure 3: South Africa s markets for fresh grapes Figure 3 shows a bubble graph of South Africa s top 20 markets for fresh grapes. South Africa s markets are growing much faster than its export countries such as Zimbabwe, Vietnam, EU (UK, France, Germany, etc.) and Russia. Thus, South Africa s market share in these countries may be growing. Import markets that are growing faster than South Africa s include Hong Kong, EU (Netherlands), Norway, Sweden, Malaysia, Singapore, among others.

12 2.4 South African markets for maize South Africa exported a total of 1.6 million tons in. South Africa s largest export market by value for maize in was Zimbabwe, which imported $84 million worth of maize, followed by Taiwan with $78 million. Important to note, however, that Taiwan was the largest importer of South African maize by volume estimated at just over tons, with Zimbabwe being second, at tons. Japan and South Korea complete the list of South Africa s Asian export footprint, while the rest were regional markets (SADC), except for Italy. Italy is the 10 th largest market for South African maize in, importing 20,000 tons. Table 9: South Africa s top 10 markets for maize value ($ 000) (tons) Share in South Africa's Share of countries in imports value Import World Zimbabwe Taiwan Japan South Korea Botswana Namibia Mozambique Lesotho Swaziland Italy In terms of market opportunities, Zimbabwe and Angola are the where South Africa s maize grew more than the respective country s imports - indicating a market share. Japan and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) are the Asian markets in which South African maize grew formidably in. South Korea stands as a strong future prospect for South Africa, with South Africa s still growing below the country s import growth. This is the same case with most of South Africa s regional markets which include Mozambique, Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. Further future opportunities exist in the EU (UK, Spain and Italy), as well as United Arab Emirates (UAE) (See Figure 2).

13 Figure 4: South Africa s markets for maize (nes)

14 2.5 South African markets for fresh apples Table 10: South Africa s top 10 markets for fresh apples Figure 5: South Africa s markets for fresh apples