Looking Long: Demographic Change, Economic Crisis, and the Prospects for Reducing Poverty. La Conyuntura vs. the Long-run
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1 Looking Long: Demographic Change, Economic Crisis, and the Prospects for Reducing Poverty Manuel Pastor June 2009 La Conyuntura vs. the Long-run We tend to think about short-term pressures and politics So we better look longterm as well. If we do, three trends demographic, economic, environmental are rocking California, and set the stage for leadership and action
2 Leading the U.S. in Demographic Change California's Changing Demographics, % 90% 80% 5.3% 19.4% 9.2% 26.0% 11.3% 70% 7.5% 32.6% 60% 7.0% 50% 6.5% 40% 30% 20% 67.1% 57.2% 47.1% 10% 0% Anglo African American Latino Asian Pacific Other Immigration as a Factor 30 Immigrants as a Share of the Population, California and the Rest of the U.S., California Rest of U.S. 20 percent
3 Foreign Born Population by Census Tract Immigration Trends at the County Level Immigrants are: One in three County residents 46 percent of the LA County workforce Children of immigrants are 64 percent of all LA County children Of the children of immigrant parents, nearly ninety percent are US citizens Source: PERE analysis of 2006 ACS data
4 California Looking Forward, California Demographic Projections, California Department of Finance 100% 90% 80% 6.5% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 11.0% 12.0% 12.7% 12.8% 12.5% 12.1% Multirace American Indian Percent of Total Population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 32.6% 47.1% 38.7% 39.2% 43.0% 33.7% 46.8% 29.5% 50.4% 53.6% 26.1% 23.3% Black Pacific Islander Asian Hispanic White 0% Year California Looking Forward, California Demographic Projections, California Department of Finance 60,000,000 Multirace 50,000,000 American Indian Total Population 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 Black Pacific Islander Asian 10,000,000 Hispanic White Year
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8 L.A. County s Demography, LA County Demographic Projections, California Department of Finance 100% 90% 80% 9.6% 9.3% 8.7% 7.9% 7.1% 6.3% 11.9% 10.8% 11.0% 10.8% 10.4% 9.8% Multirace American Indian Percent of Total Population 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 44.6% 48.4% 32.0% 29.4% 51.9% 55.4% 58.8% 62.0% 26.0% 23.3% 20.9% 18.9% Black Pacific Islander Asian Hispanic White 0% Year L.A. County s Demography, ,000,000 LA County Demographic Projections, California Department of Finance Multirace 10,000,000 American Indian Population 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Black Pacific Islander Asian 2,000,000 Hispanic White Year
9 The Future is Now... Ethnic Composition by Age for California, Year % 90% 80% 70% 11% 13% 13% 11% 8% 7% 7% 5% 13% 22% 60% 50% 45% 39% Asian Pacific & Other African American 40% 30% 58% 71% Latino Anglo 20% 10% 36% 41% 0% Under 18 years old 18 to 39 years old 40 to 64 years old 65 years or older Our Common Future? 250 Demographics and State Capital Spending Adjusted for Income Per capita state spending capital outlays adjusted for per capita income (100 = average of U.S. states) % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% percent age/ethnic difference
10 California Also Leading in Inequality... Considering the ratio of the top fifth of families to bottom fifth of families, we are the sixth most unequal state Considering the ratio of the top five percent of families to the bottom fifth of families, we are the eighth most unequal state And we are becoming more unequal faster than thirty-two other states. 100% Los Angeles County Household Income Distribution ( ) (2007 dollars) Over $150,000 80% $100,000 - $149,999 $75,000 - $99,999 60% $60,000 - $74,999 40% $45,000 - $59,999 $35,000 - $44,999 20% $25,000 - $34,999 0% Less than $25,000
11 Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity (2007) $90,000 $80,000 LA County Rest of CA $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- Non-Hispanic White African American Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Other or Mixed Race Los Angeles County Poverty Status by Race/Ethnicity % 80% Above 200% Poverty s ld o h se u 60% o H f o e g ta 40% n e rc e P 20% 0% 79.3% 5.8% 6.7% 8.2% Non-Hispanic White 59.9% 9.2% 53.4% 13.3% 11.9% 15.5% 19.1% 17.8% African- American Latino 73.2% 72.4% 8.0% 8.3% 6.0% 8.5% 10.5% 13.1% Asian/Pacific Islander Other or Mixed Race 150%-200% Poverty 100%-150% Poverty Below Poverty
12 It Isn t Just Immigration $70,000 Household Income of US-born Anglo, US-born Latinos, & Immigrant Latinos in California, $60, % $50,000 income 2004 $ $40,000 $30, % $20,000 $10,000 $0 US-born Anglos US-born Latinos Immigrant Latinos 10% Growth in Working Poor California: Percent Working Poor Households by Region, 1990 and 2000, Under Measure Utilizing "Combined Absolute" Work and Adjusted 150 Percent Poverty Measure 8% Percent working poor households (households with a householder between 25 and 64) 6% 4% 2% 3.3% 4.2% 6.2% 9.2% 4.9% 6.5% 6.7% 4.2% 0% 9 County Bay Area 5 County LA Area San Diego Area San Joaquin Valley
13 How Can We Narrow the Divide? Insure sustainable economic growth Provide education and training for workers of today and tomorrow Create labor and community standards that set new floors Restore both our fiscal sense and our common sense Sustainable Economic Growth? Employment Change Annual Average Growth Rate Other services, except public administration Educational services Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Arts, entertainment and recreation Construction Accommodation and food services Health care and social assistance Utilities Retail trade Real estate, rental and leasing Information Finance and insurance Wholesale trade Professional and technical services Administrative and waste services 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 4.3% All Government Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Manufacturing Management of companies and enterprises Total, All Industries 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 1.6% 4.2% 5.5%
14 Changing Returns to Education Regression Results on Hourly Wage for Two Time Periods in California Coefficient Sig. Coefficient Sig. High school grad *** *** Some college education *** *** College graduate *** *** Work experience *** *** Square of work experience *** *** African American ** *** Latino *** *** Asian *** *** Married *** *** Female *** *** Employed in large firm *** *** Union member *** *** Full-time, year-round *** *** Adjusted R-squared Number of observations *** means significant at the.01 level; ** significant at the.05 level Changing Returns to Education Regression Results on Hourly Wage for Two Time Periods in California Coefficient Sig. Coefficient Sig. High school grad *** *** Some college education *** *** College graduate *** *** Work experience *** *** Square of work experience *** *** African American ** *** Latino *** *** Asian *** ***
15 Relative Education Levels in California 100% 90% 80% 70% 39.0 Educational Attainment for Work Force by Ethnicity and Immigration, California, college grad % 50% 40% 30% some college high school grad less than high school % 10% 0% U.S.-born Anglos African Americans 16.4 U.S.-born Latinos Immigrant Latinos U.S.-born Asians Immigrant Asians Looking Forward Network engineer or programmer? Hmm...
16 Can We Meet Our Challenges? A New Story, A New Hope Preparing for a new generation Understanding and developing a new narrative that connects us
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