Executive Summary UK Fd & Drink Exprt Perfrmance First Half 2013 Update The exprt f fd and nn-alchlic drink in the first half f 2013 grew by 2.5% t 6.1bn. Grwth was much strnger in nn-eu markets (up 7.5%) versus the EU 27 (up 1%). A pr start in Q1 (-3.4%) was mre than ffset by strng grwth seen in Q2 (+9%). In June alne exprts grew by ver 13%. The Eurzne and EU27 bth pulled ut f recessin in Q2 2013 and cnsumer cnfidence in the EU recvered strngly by ver 10 pints since the start f 2013. Exprts t the EU subsequently turned arund frm -4.8% in Q1 t +7.2% in Q2. Including alchlic drinks, ttal fd and drink exprts were 9.3bn, 5% up n 2012 with the key whisky sectr grwing by ver 11% n 2012. The exprt f all UK prducts fell by 3.3% n 2012 wrth 152bn. What has been happening with exchange rates? UK exprts t the Eurzne were mre cmpetitive in H1 as sterling weakened frm an average f 1.22 in 2012 t 1.18 in 2013. UK exprts t thse markets using the US dllar became marginally mre cmpetitive in the first half as sterling weakened frm $1.58 in 2012 t $1.54 in 2013. The weaker pund is likely t have had sme impact n the grwth in exprts t the Eurzne, but grwth in Q2 was driven mainly by imprved ecnmic cnditins as the EU came ut f recessin. Value added cntinues t utperfrm Grwth was inhibited by sharp falls in the exprt f cereals and grains fllwing the pr harvests seen in late 2012. The falls detailed belw represent 6% f the verall value f fd and nn-alchlic drinks exprts. Cereals -59% falling by almst 150m with wheat dwn 73% and barley dwn 67%. Grains and seeds -35% falling by ver 100m with rapeseed dwn 49% and flaxseed dwn 50%. The exprt f value added fds (+4.9%) utperfrmed ttal fd and nn-alchlic drinks exprts (+2.5%) in H1 2013. This was true in bth the EU (+3.7%) and the nn-eu (+8.2%). Mst f the value added categries were in grwth apart frm thse five ging dwn in the table belw: Ging Up Chclate (+5.4% t 249m) Cheese (+3.8% t 210m) Sft drinks (+5.5% t 187m) Sweet biscuits (+14.2% t 136m) Sugar cnfectinery (+6.8% t 86m) Ging Dwn Prepared meat (-11.5% t 95m) Ice cream (-4.3% t 49m) Smked fish (-5.2% t 26m) Jams and preserves (-2.4% t 16m) Sausages (-6.4% t 8m) Fd and Drink Federatin 6 Catherine Street Lndn WC2B 5JJ Tel: +44 (0)20 7836 2460 Fax: +44 (0)20 7836 0580 Web: www.fdf.rg.uk Registered ffice as abve. Registered in Lndn with limited liability. Certificate f Incrpratin n. 210572. VAT number: 761253541. The Fd and Drink Federatin seeks t ensure that infrmatin and guidance it prvides are crrect but accepts n liability in respect theref. Such infrmatin and guidance are nt substitutes fr specific legal r ther prfessinal advice.
Reginal Summary Within the EU 27 there were several markets in decline, five f which psitined in the tp 10. Hwever, the tp three markets (Ireland, France and the Netherlands) perfrmed strngly adding almst 200m t the ttal exprt figure in H1. There were als 8 markets in duble digit grwth mst f which are smaller Eastern Eurpean members f the EU. Asia (+30.1%) and Oceania (+22.4%) were the best perfrming nn-eu regins. Whilst Other Western Eurpe (-5.1%, made up chiefly f Nrway, Switzerland and Turkey) and the Middle East (-1.6%) were the nly regins in decline. UK Exprts f Fd & Nn-alchlic Drinks by EU / Nn-EU, Jan-June 2012-2013 ( millin) 2012 2013 % change Ttal Fd & Nn-alchlic drinks exprts 5,969 6,119 2.5 Ttal EU 4,563 4,608 1.0 Ttal Nn-EU 1,406 1,511 7.5 EU % share 76.4 75.3 Nn-EU % share 23.6 24.7 Surce: HMRC Trade Inf Ntes fr cmparisn: Including alchlic drinks, ttal fd and drink exprts were 9.3bn, 5% up n the same perid in 2012 (including 11.2% grwth in whisky exprts, the lead categry by value) All UK prduct exprts at 152bn fell by 3.3% n 2012. i.e. the fd/nn-alchlic drinks sectr has utperfrmed the ttal f all exprt sectrs fr the first half f 2013, and fd/nn-alchlic drinks share f ttal UK prduct exprts has increased t 4% cmpared t 3.8% in the first half f 2013. Imprts f fd and nn-alchlic drinks were 18.5bn in the first half f 2013, up 8.6% n 2012. The fd and nn-alchlic drinks trade gap increased frm a deficit f 11.1bn in 2012, t a deficit f 12.4bn in 2013. UK Exprts f Fd and Nn-alchlic Drinks by Sectr, Jan-June 2012-2013 ( millin) Sectr 2012 2013 % change Other prepared fds* 1,458 1,663 14.0 Cereals & bakery 1,058 958-9.4 Meat & animal prducts 827 853 3.2 Fish & seafd 631 661 4.7 Dairy 585 624 6.7 Fruit & vegetables 638 531-16.7 Tea, cffee, cca & spices 396 451 13.7 Nn-alchlic drinks 191 201 5.3 Sugar & sugar cnfectinery 185 177-4.1 Ttal 5,969 6,119 2.2 *Inc. fats ils, preserved fruit/veg, fruit juice, sups, sauce & cndiments, ice cream, vinegar, animal feeds and ther miscellaneus prducts Fd and Drink Federatin Page 2
Tp Markets The ranking f the tp 8 markets remains unchanged n 2012. Denmark is the nly EU cuntry t mve up the table, the ther climbers were China, Hng Kng, Australia and Suth Africa. The majr fallers in terms f rankings were Nrway, Sweden and Russia. Japan has mved ut f the tp 20 after exprts fell by 3.5%. The highest grwth markets in the tp 20 included: China, +126% t 102m and nw mving up frm 20 th t 10 th in the table in ne year. The gains are largely due t the increases in UK prk and animal fat exprts respnsible fr adding 45m in the first 6 mnths. British prk (+591%) and frzen prk ffal (+280%) alne increased exprts by 11m. Australia, +25.9% t 55m with gains made acrss the bard including cffee +518%, sauces and cndiments +15% and sups +44.6%. Suth Africa, +25.4% t 50m with a 143% increase in fresh fish, 39% increase in breakfast cereals and 36% increase in meat. Hng Kng, +14.8% t 73m driven by grwth in tea exprts +745% (adding 5m) and 102% increase in buttermilk. Denmark, +10.8% including a 58% increase in prk, 16% increase in prepared meat and a 30% increase in jams and preserves. UK Exprts f Fd & Nn-alchlic Drinks: Tp 20 Cuntries, Jan-June 2012-2013 ( millin) 2012 2013 % change 1(-) Ireland 1,473 1,570 6.6 2(-) France 637 684 7.4 3(-) Netherlands 601 652 8.6 4(-) Germany 580 511-11.9 5(-) Belgium 273 252-7.6 6(-) United States 247 249 0.7 7(-) Spain 242 185-23.5 8(-) Italy 189 179-5.2 9(+1) Denmark 97 108 10.8 10(+10) China 45 102 126.3 11(-) Pland 87 96 10.2 12(-3) Sweden 99 94-4.6 13(-1) United Arab Emirates 80 77-3.6 14(+1) Hng Kng 64 73 14.8 15(-1) Saudi Arabia 66 68 3.0 16(-) Canada 63 64 1.3 17(-4) Nrway 79 64-19.6 18(+3) Australia 44 55 25.9 19(+4) Suth Africa 40 50 25.4 20(-2) Russia 47 49 5.3 Surce: HMRC Trade Inf Changes in ranking psitin are versus the first six mnths f 2012 Fd and Drink Federatin Page 3
Reginal Analysis EU UK fd and nn-alchlic drink exprts t the EU in the first half 2013 grew by 1%. The exprt f sme key cmmdity categries rebunded back in t grwth in 2013 including meat (+5.2%) and dairy (+7.2%). Fish and seafd remains in decline (-3.3%) but grew in Q2 alne. Cereals (-53%) and grain/seeds (-36.6%) were the biggest fallers, dwn 210m n 2012. Many value added prducts perfrmed well up 6% t the EU. Butter/spreads (+41.9%), cffee (+34.7%), sups (+26.1%), pasta (+19.5%), fruit juices (+16.2%), tea (+14.3), chclate (+11.3%) and sauces/cndiments (+11%) were amngst sme f the categries seeing duble digit grwth t the EU. Cllectively grwth f these prducts resulted in gains f ver 78m n 2012. Exprts t the Eurzne were up 0.6% almst in line with all EU markets. UK Exprts f Fd & Nn-alchlic Drinks t the EU, Jan-June 2012-2013 ( millin) 2012 2013 % change TOTAL EU 4,563 4,608 1.0 1(-) Ireland 1,473 1,570 6.6 2(-) France 637 684 7.4 3(-) Netherlands 601 652 8.6 4(-) Germany 580 511-11.9 5(-) Belgium 273 252-7.6 6(-) Spain 242 185-23.5 7(-) Italy 189 179-5.2 8(+1) Denmark 97 108 10.8 9(+1) Pland 87 96 10.2 10(-2) Sweden 99 94-4.6 11(+1) Czech Republic 39 39 1.9 12(+1) Finland 36 38 5.1 13(-2) Prtugal 54 34-36.9 14(-) Greece 28 28-0.7 15(-) Austria 25 26 5.0 16(-) Cyprus 24 23-4.8 17(-) Malta 21 22 3.3 18(-) Hungary 18 21 15.5 19(+1) Rmania 6 8 25.6 20(-1) Bulgaria 10 7-27.5 21(-) Latvia 5 7 38.6 22(-) Estnia 5 6 22.7 23(+1) Slvakia 4 6 30.5 24(-1) Lithuania 4 5 10.4 25(-) Slvenia 4 4-6.7 26(-) Luxemburg 2 3 8.5 Surce: HMRC Trade Inf Nte: Eurzne members in bld Changes in ranking psitins are versus the first six mnths f 2012 Fd and Drink Federatin Page 4
Nn-EU Exprts t nn-eu markets cntinued t perfrm strngly, grwing 7.5% verall. Exprts t Other Western Eurpe fell (-5.1%) due t pr perfrmance in Nrway as did exprts t the Middle East (-1.6%) fllwing a slw-dwn in the UAE and a negative grwth in Israel. All ther regins grew including: Asia +30.1%, led by strng grwth seen in China up 126% and Hng Kng +48% but als gains seen in sme f the smaller markets including Suth Krea up 12.3% (+39% chclate and +19.9% sweet biscuits). Oceania +22.4%, due t duble digit grwth in bth Australia up 25.9% (+518% cffee, +94% sugar cnfectinery, +90% chclate and +82% cheese) and New Zealand up 12% (+112% sauces/cndiments, +92% tea). Latin America & the Caribbean +14.4% led by grwth in Brazil up 19.5% due mainly t strng demand fr UK fd preparatins (+2406% adding ver 2m). UK Exprts f Fd & Nn-alchlic Drinks t the Nn-EU, Jan-June 2013 ( millin) 2012 2013 % Change Nrth America 311 314 1.1 United States 247 249 0.7 Canada 63 64 1.3 Asia 292 380 30.1 Hng Kng 64 73 14.8 China 45 102 126.3 Japan 47 45-3.5 Singapre 16 18 13.2 Krea Suth 23 25 12.3 Middle East 237 233-1.6 United Arab Emirates 80 77-3.6 Saudi Arabia 66 68 3.0 Israel 23 17-23.5 Kuwait 15 15 0.0 Africa 227 227 0.3 Egypt 33 28-15.3 Suth Africa 40 50 25.4 Nigeria 35 48 36.9 Algeria 29 11-60.1 Ghana 15 20 37.9 Other Western Eurpe 167 158-5.1 Nrway 79 64-19.6 Switzerland 43 44 2.5 Turkey 16 21 30.8 Eastern Eurpe 66 71 8.2 Russia 47 49 5.3 Ukraine 12 13 11.4 Oceania 52 64 22.4 Australia 44 55 25.9 New Zealand 7 8 12.0 Latin America & the Caribbean 54 61 14.4 Brazil 10 12 19.5 Chile 4 4 18.9 Mexic 5 4-11.5 Surce: HMRC Trade Inf Fd and Drink Federatin Page 5
Appendix 1 Tp sectrs Other prepared fds* (+14% t 1,663m) *Inc. fats ils, preserved fruit/veg, fruit juice, sups, sauces & cndiments, ice cream, vinegar, animal feeds and ther miscellaneus prducts Fd and Drink Federatin Page 6
Cereals & bakery prducts (-9.4% t 958m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 7
Meat and related animal prducts (+3.2% t 853m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 8
Fish and seafd (+4.7% t 661m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 9
Dairy (+6.7% t 624m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 10
Fruit and vegetables (-16.7% t 531m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 11
Tea, Cffee, Cca and Spices (+13.7% t 451m) Nn-alchlic drinks (+5.3% t 201m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 12
Sugar and sugar cnfectinery (-4.1% t 178m) Fd and Drink Federatin Page 13