Outlook Chilean Raisins Industry Juan Eduardo Laso President Raisin Committee Chilealimentos Sales Director GVF Alimentos
Agenda Chapter I Sector Analysis Chapter II Projections and Comments
Before, some remembrances
Conference
Delegates
Formal Dinner
Casablanca Valley
San Felipe Factories
Copiapo Valley
Chapter I SECTOR ANALYSIS
Surface and Production of Table Grape Between 2003 and 2011 the production of table grapes increased 35%. In 2011 the harvest was around 1.6 million tonnes. There is a decrease in the area planted and production of Thompson and Flame Seedless varieties. 60.000 55.000 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 Hectares Tonnes '000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.600 1.500 1.400 1.300 1.200 1.100 1.000 900 800 Source: Chilealimentos A.G., Odepa
Destination of Production Table Grape The main destination of table grape is the export as fresh (60%), followed by the production of raisins (21%) and elaboration of juice (9%) and wine (9%). Tonnes 000 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.173 1.168 1.000 239 224 800 600 1.287 273 1.404 1.407 1.516 1.580 1.444 290 318 375 298 309 1.580 338 Between 2003 and 2011 the production of grapes for raisins increased from 240,000 tons to 340,000 tons. 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wine Juice Raisins Fresh Source: Chilealimentos A.G., Odepa
Table Grape World Exports Tonnes 000 Chile is the world's largest exporter of table grapes and accounts for 35% of international trade. The raisin industry has excellent quality raw materials. 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Others Turkey Sudafrica USA Chile Fuente: Usda
Chilean Raisins Exports 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 Ton US$'000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 Between 2001 and 2011 raisin shipments grew at an average annual rate of 6.5% in volume and 16.8% in value. In 10 years the volume grew 88% and the value was quadrupled and more. 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 US$ / ton 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 500 Source: Chilealimentos A.G. 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chilean Raisins Exports The principal product exported are the natural raisins. But in recent years it has increased the importance of golden raisin shipments. In 2011 they represented 15% of the volume and 19% of the value. 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 Tonnes Golden Tonnes Natural USD '000 Golden UDS 0000 Natural 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 Source: Chilealimentos A.G.
Production Data, 2011 Production Sales = 82.000 ton. = US$167 millon Raw Material = 340.000 ton. (table grape) Varieties Factories Exporters Destinatios = Thompson y Flame Seedless. Others Autumn Royal, Black Seedless, Superior, Crimson Seedless,Red Globe. = 27 processing plants = 79 companies = 76 countries Source: Chilealimentos A.G.
Chapter II PROJECTIONS AND COMMENTS
Perspectives 2012 In the begining, the industry projected more availability of fruit, but it turned out just the opposite. Greater competition from the wine and juice industry, which would remain in the future. Drying costs will remain high due to the low unemployment rate.
Outlook 2012 In 2012 raisins exports will approach the 65,000 tons. The reasons? Low production of grapes, by: Climate Late maturing of varieties such as Thompson and Crimson Drought in the productive sectors Less planted surface, it lowered the number of hectares available of Flame and Thompson varities. Competition from other sectors such as juice and wine industry, and of course, fresh fruit.
Chilean Production 1.600 Forecast 1.400 1.200 1.000 The table grape production had reached about 1,16 million tons, it using 315,000 thousand for to produce raisins. Raisins exports will reach 65,000 tons and USD 154 million. 800 600 400 200 0 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tonnes Grape for Others Uses Tonnes Grape for Raisins Ton US$'000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 40.000 80.000 30.000 60.000 20.000 40.000 10.000 20.000 Source: Chilealimentos A.G., Odepa 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0
Chilean Production Forecast Item 2009 2010 2011 2012 Metric tonnes Natural Raisins 69,758 54,711 59,576 52,650 Golden Raisins 8,518 8,833 10,589 12,350 Local Consumption 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Carry over 0 0 0 0 Total 83,276 68,544 75,165 70,000 Source: Chilealimentos A.G., Odepa
Chilean Economic Forecasts Year Exchange Rate ($/USD) Gross Domestic Product (%) Unemployment (%) Consumer Prices Growth (%) Central Bank Rate (%) 2008 521.8 3.7 7.7 7.1 8.3 2009 559.7-1.7 10.5-1.4 0.5 2010 510,4 5.2 8.2 3.0 3.25 2011 483,4 6.0 6,6 4.4 5.5 2012 485 5.1 6,5 2.1 5.0 2013 480 4.7 7,1 3.0 5.0 Source: Central Bank, INE
ene.2000 jul.2000 ene.2001 jul.2001 ene.2002 jul.2002 ene.2003 jul.2003 ene.2004 jul.2004 ene.2005 jul.2005 ene.2006 jul.2006 ene.2007 jul.2007 ene.2008 jul.2008 ene.2009 jul.2009 ene.2010 jul.2010 ene.2011 jul.2011 ene.2012 jul.2012 Evolution Chilean Peso vs USD and EUR 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 USDCLP EURCLP While the price of copper has fallen significantly the Chilean peso is the second money most widely appreciated in the world during this year.
Comments It is likely that lower rainfall and dry weather continues, and even it accentuate the remainder of the year and 2013. Among the most affected areas are III, IV y V Región. In the last ten years, rainfall has dropped 15% - 60% depending on the city, while temperatures have risen about 2 C...
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