Internationl Research Journal of Agricultural Economics and Statistics Volume 3 Issue 1 March, 2012 53-58 Research Paper Measuring the extent of instability in foodgrains production in different districts of Karanataka S. PANDURANG AND P.A. KATARAKI See end of the paper for authors affiliations Correspondence to : S. PANDURANG Krishi Vigyan Kendra, BIDAR (KARANATAKA) INDIA Paper History : Received : 26.04.2011; Revised : 16.11.2011; Accepted: 29.12.2011 ABSTRACT : The study the growth of food grains production in Karnataka was carried out at College of Agriculture, Dharwad during 2000. In this study 6 crops were taken namely, rice, jowar, ragi, bajra, maize and wheat from 19 districts of Karnataka for the period of 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98. The data have been collected from the crop reports complied by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Bangalore. Growth rates of these crops were found out by using Semilog quadratic function, variability between two periods by Mann- Whitney test and variability between districts and crops by Friedman two way analysis. The productivity of jowar in period I showed acceleration trend in almost all districts of Karnataka. In period II Bidar, Bijapur, Chitradurga, Gulbarga, Mandya and Raichur districts showed significantly acceleration trend for yield of jowar crop. KEY WORDS : Yield, Production, Food grains HOW TO CITE THIS PAPER : Pandurang, S. and Kataraki, P.A. (2012). Measuring the extent of instability in foodgrains production in different districts of Karanataka, Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat., 3 (1) : 53-58. INTRODUCTION Karnataka is the eighth largest state in India with a geographical area of about 190.49 lakh hectares. Normal annual rainfall of the state is 1188.6 mm, most of it occurs between May and October months. Actual rainfall of the state during the 1997-1998 was 1188.6mm which was 23.76 per cent more than the normal rainfall. Rainfall was excess in Hassan and normal in the remaining districts. Net cropped area in state was 100.75 lakh hectares (52.9%) of geographical area during 1997-98. Among the districts, the proportion of gross cropped area was highest in Bijapur and lowest in Bangalore urban. The cereal production in Karnataka has recorded an increase during certain years and have also shown declining tendencies during certain years, Further, the growth achieved was different in different times periods and regions. The agricultural output of Karnataka essentially comprises pulses, small and minor millets and commercial crops, major cereals comprise of rice, jowar, ragi, bajra, maize and wheat. The total area under foodgrains in the state was 70.6 lakh hecrates during 1997-98 as against 73.7 lakh hectares during 1996-97 (-3.1 lakh hectares). Foodgrains cover 60.0 per cent of the total cropped area in the state. Among the districts, the area covered under the foodgrains was largest in Gulbarga (9.5 lakh hectares), followed by Bijapur (8.6 lakh hectares) and lowest area was in Kodagu (0.4 lakh hectares). Total foodgrains production was 80.3 lakh tonnes (1997-98) as against 92.1 lakh tonnes during. 1996-97. Among the districts highest foodgrains production was in Raichur (60.8 lakh tonnes) followed by Shimoga (6.7 lakh tonnes) and it was lowest in Kodagu (0.9 lakh tonnes). The yield of foodgrains was highest in Kodagu district (2323 kg/ha) followed by shimoga district (2272 kg/ha) and lowest in Gulbarga (399 kga/ha) during 1997-98. The total area covered under cereal crops decreased from 54.6 lakh hectares during 1996-97 to 53.0 lakh hectares during 1997-98. The area under minor millets declined from 0.8 in 1996-97 to 0.7 lakh hectares during 1997-98. Among cereals, jowar crop alone covered 35.6 per cent of the total cropped area under cereal followed by paddy crop with 25.4 per cent. Among the districts the area under cereals was largest in Bijapur (7.3 lakh hectares) followed by Dharwad (5.3 lakh hectares) and Raichur (4.9 lakh hectares). During 1997-98, total production of cereals was 75.0 lakh tonnes as against 84.5 lakh tonnes during 1996-97. The yield decreased from 1616 kg/ha in 1996-
S. PANDURANG AND P.A. KATARAKI 97 to 1489 kg/ha in 1997-98. District wise production of cereals was highest in Raichur (6.7 lakh tonnes) followed by Shimoga (6.6 lakh tonnes). The yield of cereals was highest in Shimoga and Mandya district (2384 kg/ha) followed by Kadagu district (2339 kg/ha). MATERIALS AND METHODS The study pertains to Karnataka state including its all districts. Karnataka is the eight largest state in India both in area and population with an area of 1,91,791, sq. km and a population of 4, 48,17,398 according to the 1991 census. Table 3.1 gives the area and land use pattern in Karnataka during 1997-98. It is bounded by Maharashtra and Goa on the north, Andhra Pradesh on the East and Tamil Nadu and Kerala on the south on the west, it opens in to the Arabian Sea. The normal rainfall of the districts ranges from as low as 552 mm (in Bijapur district) to as high as 3932mm (Dakshina Kannada district). The average rainfall of the state is 1,355mm. The maximum rainfall occurs in ghat regions followed by coastal, Malnad, transition and maidan regions. It progressively declines from south-west to north-east to the Karnataka state except in Bidar district and the period of 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98. Selection of crops, rice, jowar, ragi, bajra, mazie and wheat were choosen for the present study. The data has been collected from the crop reports complied by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics (BES), Government of Karnataka Bangalore. Statistical tools used in the analysis is Growth rates using semi-log quadratic function. RESULTS AND DATA ANALYSIS The experimental findings of the present study have been presented in the following sub heads: Yield of rice : The yield trend of rice crop (kg/ha) in 19 districts of Karnataka state for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 is furnished in Table 1. In first regression coefficient (b 1 ) almost Table 1 : District wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in rice Bangalore 7.1091e-003 1.2017e-004 40.20 Belgaum 2.4504e-002-5.9403e-004 39.30 Bellary -7.5079e-003 5.4240e-004* 45.60 Bidar -3.0772e-002 4.97448e-004 28.30 Bijapur -8.1566e-002** 3.5354e-003** 41.60 Chikmangalur -2.1947e-003 2.5444e-004 35.40 Chitradurga -1.9108e-002* 1.0416e-003** 52.10 D-Kannada -4.1071e-002 1.5787e-004 57.60 Dharwad -1.1474e-002 6.7024e-004 3.70 Gulbarga -1.8300e-002 1.1105e-003 19.70 Hassan -1.1566e-003 3.0994e-004 38.00 Kodagu 3.9342e-003-2.0802e-005 15.10 Kolar -3.2689e-003 7.9752e-005 55.40 Mandya -5.1652e-003 2.1896e-004 15.30 Mysore 6.3568e-003-8.2604e-005 45.20 Raichur -2.5112e-003 3.3686e-004 38.30 Shimoga -2.4008e-004 2.9502e-004 47.30 Tumkur 25852-003 3.3698e-004 48.90 U- Kannada 3.4143-002** -1.2843e-003** 54.60 * and ** indicates significance of values at p= 0.05 and 0.01, ------ indicates crop is not grown in the district 54 Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco.& Stat. 3(1)March, 2012: 53-58
MEASURING THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY IN FOODGRAINS PRODUCTION IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS OF KARANATAKA Table 2 : District wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in jowar Bangalore Belgaum 5.4867e-003 3.2644e-004 53.50 Bellary -1.5472e-004 9.3262e-004 30.90 Bidar -5.1830e-002** 2.5263e-003** 57.30 Bijapur -4.9409e-002** 3.1131e-003** 73.30 Chikmangalur -2.0970e-002** 9.4972e-004 5.30 Chitradurga -3.8789-002** 1.6185e-003** 31.00 D-Kannada Dharwad -2.2879e-003 5.2279e-004 23.20 Gulbarga -3.9901e-002* 1.5850e-003* 28.80 Hassan -2.3711e-002 7.5267e-004 11.10 Kodagu Kolar -8.2771e-002 3.8391e-003 27.50 Mandya -5.5316e-002* 2.2688e-003* 24.0 Mysore 1.0580e-002-1.2691e-004 7.30 Raichur -2.2948e-002* 1.2768e-003** 54.80 Shimoga 5.2780e-003-9.7953e-005 5.00 Tumkur -1.6856e-003 3.1166e-004 8.20 U-Kannada 2.3176e-002-1.7111e-003 24.40 * and ** indicates significance of values at p= 0.05 and 0.01, ------ indicates crop is not grown in the district all the districts shown decreasing rend of yield of rice except Banglore, Belgaum, Kodagu, Mysore, Tumkur and Uttar Kannada showing acceleration trend of yield of rice crop. Uttar Kannada district showing significantly increasing yield trend of rice crop while, Bijapur and Chitradurga districts showing. Yield of jowar : The results of trend for equation for yield of the jowar crop in 16 districts for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 are presented in Table 2. In the first regression coefficient (b 1 ), only 4 districts viz., Belgaum, Mysore, Shimoga and Uttar Kannada showed positive values rest were whowing negative regression coefficient (b 1 ), indicating majority districts showngdecrese in the yield of jowar crop. Bidar, Bijapur, Chitradurga, Gulbarga, Mandya and Raichur districts indicated significantly declaration trend in the yield of jowar crop. But in case of second regression coefficient (b 2 ) and 3 districts viz., Mysore, Shimoga and Uttar Kannada districts showed negative values while, amost all districts had positive trend for yield of jowar crop. Bidar, Bijapur, Chitradurga, Gulbarga, Mandya and Raichur. Yield of ragi : The yield trend of ragi crop in 18 districts of Karnataka for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 has been presented in Table 3. In first regression coefficient (b 1 ) almost all districts were showing negative, confirming decreasing yield of ragi crop in these districts except Chikmangalur, Dakshina Kannadda, Dharwad, Tumkur, Shimoga and Uttar Kannada showing acceleration trend for yield of ragi crop, Gulbarga, Mandya and Raichur districts noticed significantly negative regression coefficient (b 1 ) confirming significantly decreasing trend for yield of ragi crop. In second regression coefficient (b 2 ) majority of districts showed positive trend for yield of ragi crop confirming acceleration trend yield of ragi except 7 districts viz., Bidar, Chikmanglur, Chitradurga, Dakshina Kannada, Dharwad. Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat. 3(1) March, 2012: 53-58 55
S. PANDURANG AND P.A. KATARAKI Table 3 : district wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in ragi Bangalore -1.9287e-002 1.1716e-003 33.00 Belgaum -3.5062e-004 4.2652e-004 21.20 Bellary -3.3170e-003 1.3170e-003 9.90 Bidar -5.0136e-003-2.9124e-005 4.10 Bijapur ------- ----- ---- Chikmangalur 1.0953e-002-1.2438e-005 27.40 Chitradurga -4.5235e-003-1.1503e-006 9.40 D-Kannada 7.2678e-002-5.5991e-003 33.20 Dharwad 2.2290e-002-8.9249e-003** 7.40 Gulbarga -4.0828e-002** 2.1538e-003** 53.80 Hassan -1.1903e-002 6.7132e-004 9.50 Kodagu -4.0923e-003 4.6591e-004 22.10 Kolar -1.5781e-002 1.5440e-003 49.80 Mandya -3.5096e-002* 1.3820e-003 28.90 Mysore -1.6951e-002 9.4162e-004 15.90 Raichur -1.0163e-001* 4.8811e-003 51.90 Shimoga 1.9810e-002-8.3579e-004 10.10 Tumkur 5.1248e-003 1.6497-004 46.70 U-Kannada 1.2789e-002-2.6057e-004 16.80 * and ** indicate significance of values at p= 0.05 and 0.01, ------ indicates crop is not grown in the district 56 Table 4 : District wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in bajra Bangalore ----- ---- ---- Belgaum -3.3931e-003-2.4140e-004 29.90 Bellary -3.5698e-002* 4.4233e-004 72.90 Bidar -1.1252e-002-1.3368e-004 63.40 Bijapur -5.8256e-003 1.4140e-004 3.10 Chikmangalur -1.1494e-001 1.2546e-003 65.00 Chitradurga 6.3273e-002* -3.9394e-003* 67.40 D-Kannada ------- ------ ----- Dharwad -1.4742e-002 6.8152e-004 3.10 Gulbarga -2.2949e-002* 1.1607e-002 85.00 Hassan ------ ------ ---- Kodagu ------ ------ ---- Kolar -5.5689e-003 3.5273e-003 96.80 Mandya ------ ------ ---- Mysore -6.1445e-002* -32426e-003* 42.70 Raichur 9.8929e-003-4.4247e-004 12.40 Shimoga 1.005e-001-4.0376e-004 12.40 Tumkur 1.0005e-001-4.0376e-003 26.70 U-Kannada 7.6551e-002** -5.4744-003** 96.40 *and ** indicate significance of values at p= 0.05 and 0.01, ----- indicates crop is not growth in the district Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco.& Stat. 3(1)March, 2012: 53-58
MEASURING THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY IN FOODGRAINS PRODUCTION IN DIFFERENT DISTRICTS OF KARANATAKA Table 5 : District wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in maize Bangalore 1.5928e-001** -5.1161e-003* 78.30 Belgaum 1.3669e-001** -4.3882e-003** 77.90 Ballary 2.0703e-001** -6.9480e-003** 77.10 Bidar 2.1279e-001** -7.0980e-003** 76.20 Bijapur 8.5977e-003 1.8179e-004 69.40 Chikmangalur 2.2847e-001** -7.1383e-003** 70.60 Chitadurga 1.6687e-001** -5.3520e-003** 80.90 D-Kannada ------- ------ ----- Dharwad 1.0936e-001* -3.2034e-003 47.20 Gulbarga -3.3758e-002* 1.1215e-003 28.10 Hassan -3.2278e-002 1.4401e-003 9.60 Kodagu 4.0186e-003-5.7303e-006 2.30 Kolar -2.4160e-002* 1.1278e-003* 24.60 Mandya -65380e-003 2.5112e-004 1.10 Mysore -1.4640e-002 8.8611e-004 7.60 Raichur -7.0718e-003 3.2909e-004 4.20 Shimoga 5.7079e-003-9.64553e-005 6.30 Tumkur -6.5165e-003 2.6160e-004 1.90 U-Kannada -1.0625e-003-2.8246e-004 32.10 *and ** indicate significance of values at p=0.05 and 0.01, ----- indicates crop is not grown in the district Yield of bajra : The results of trend equations estimated for yield of the 13 districts in Karnataka for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 are presented in the Table 4. In first regression coefficient (b 1 ) out of 13 districts, 8 districts showed positive values and 5 districts negative values. Among them, Belgaum, Bijapur and Tumkur districts indicating significantly positive regression coefficient (b 1 ) confirming acceleration trend in the yield of bajra crop while, Bidar district alone noticed significantly negative regression coefficient (b 1 ) confirming declaration trend in the yield of bajra crop. In second regression coefficient (b 2 ) noticed positive values and 7 districts noticed negative value Bidar district alone noticed significantly positive regression coefficient (b 2 ) confirmed acceleration trend in the yield of bajra while, Belgum and Tumkur districts showing. Yield of maize : The results of trend equations estimated for yield of the 18 districts in Karnataka for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 are presented in the Table 5. Out of 18 districts, 10 districts showed positive first regression coefficient (b 1 ) indicating acceleration trend for yield of maize crop. While, 8 districts negative first regression coefficient (b 1 ) indicating declaration trend for yield of maize crop. District namely, Bangalore, Belgaum, Bellary, Bidar, Chikmangalur, Chitradurga, Dharwad and Shimoga showing significantly positive regression coefficient (b 1 ) confirming increasing trend for yield of maize crop. While, Gulbarga and Kolar districts showing significantly negative regression coefficient (b 1 ) confirming decreasing rend for second regression coefficient (b 2 ) 10 districts showing negative regression coefficient and 8 districts indicating positive regression coefficient (b 2 ). Out of 8 districts, only Kolar district noticed significantly positive regression coefficient (b 2 ). Out of 8 districts, only Kolar district noticed significantly positive regression coefficient (b 2 ). While, Belgaum, Bellary, Bidar, Chikmanglur and Chitradurga districts indicating negative regression (b 2 ), confirming acceleration trend and decleration trend for yield of maize crop. Yield of wheat : The results of trend equations estimated for yield of the wheat crop in 18 districts in Karnataka for the 22 years from 1976-77 to 1997-98 are presented in the Table 6. In first regression coefficient (b 1 ), 8 districts showing positive and 10 districts showing negative, confirming acceleration and deceleration trend for yield of wheat crop. In this case only Raichur and Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat. 3(1) March, 2012: 53-58 57
S. PANDURANG AND P.A. KATARAKI Table 6 : District wise (Karnataka) trend for yield from 1976-77 to 1997-98 in wheat Bangalore -1.0308e-002 4.6519e-004 4.00 Belgaum 1.0010e-002 7.9681e-006 31.40 Bellary -1.0038e-004 1.0038e-004 35.90 Bidar -1.4929e-002 1.7111e-004 53.00 Bijapur 9.5975e-003-7.8562e-005 31.80 Chikmangalur 1.9656e-002-1.3554e-003 30.10 Chitradurga -1.1363e-002 2.5276e-004 11.90 D-Kannada ------- ------ ----- Dharwad 1.0495e-002 5.9414e-006 24.80 Gulbarga 1.2602e-002-7.4032e-004 21.50 Hassan 5.0189e-002-6.5377e-003 37.20 Kodagu ----- ---- --- Kolar -2.5646e-002 1.9185e-003 20.60 Mandya 3.6388e-002-3.7952e-003 8.10 Mysore -1.3890e-002 64497e-004 3.80 Raichur -8.1963e-002** 2.4594e-003** 65.00 Shimoga -5.6983e-002* 1.1049e-003 57.20 Tumkur -3.8840e-003 1.1214e-005 7.60 U- Kannada -7.2958e-003 6.0341e-004 1.20 *and ** indicate significance of values at p=0.05 and 0.01, ----- indicates crop is not grown in the district Shimoga districts showing significantly decreasing trend for yield of wheat crop. There was no significant difference in positive regression coefficient (b 1 ) for increasing trend for yield of wheat crop. In second regression coefficient (b 2 ) 11 districts showing positive and only 6 districts showing negative, out of 17 districts, only Raichur district showing significantly positive regression coefficient (b 2 ) confirming significantly acceleration trend for yield of wheat crop. Authors affiliations: P.A. KATARAKI, Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, DHARWAD (KARANATAKA) INDIA LITERATURE CITED Agarwal, R.C. and Shah, S. L.(1971). Extent of variability in selected dry farming districts of Uttar Pradesh. Indian J. Agric. Econ.,26: 350-354. Chengappa, P.G. ( 1981). Growth rates of area, production and productivity of coffer in India. J. Coffee Res., 11(2):19-26. Sharma, H.C., Dahiya, P.S. and Malhotra, V.P.(1988). Extent of growth and instability in potato Vis-à-vis wheat and rice: A macro analysis. Agric. Situ. India, 43 (7): 581-586. Tejappa, B.B. (1980). Instability of output yields and prices of principal crops under dry land farming: An econometric analysis of Gulbarga districts in Karnataka. M.Sc. (Ag.) Thesis, University of Agricultural Sciences, BENGALURU, KARNATAKA (India). Webster, J.P.G. and Williams, N.T. (1988). Changes in cereal production and yield variability on farms in south east England, J. Agric. Econ., 39(2):255-262. * * * * * * * * 58 Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco.& Stat. 3(1)March, 2012: 53-58