Integrating the Land Use and Travel Model in San Francisco County Lisa Zorn Event 180: Meeting Planning Needs with Integrated Urban Models Jan 23, 2011 TRB 90th Annual Meeting SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
What is LUCI? Land Use + CHAMP Integrated SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 2
What is LUCI? brought to you by UrbanSim! Land Use + CHAMP Integrated SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 2
Why LUCI? Systematically develop land use forecast Identify areas where growth may be over/ under planned Justify transportation mitigations Show the implications of policies SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 3
What is LUCI? What is SF CHAMP? Plan B Land Use Road Network Network SF-CHAMP Trips Loaded Networks Travel Times SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 4
What is LUCI? What is SF CHAMP? Plan B Land Use Road Network Network SF-CHAMP Trips Loaded Networks Travel Times SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 4
What is UrbanSim? Travel Times ABAG HH & Job Totals Planning Pipeline UrbanSim Real Estate Prices Buildings Land Use SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 5
Travel Times ABAG HH & Job Totals Planning Pipeline Together: UrbanSim LUCI Real Estate Prices Buildings Land Use Road Network Network SF-CHAMP Loaded Trips ABAG HH & Planning Networks Travel Times Job Totals Pipeline UrbanSim Real Estate Prices Buildings Land Use Road Network Network SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 6
Travel Times ABAG HH & Job Totals UrbanSim Planning Pipeline 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 Together: LUCI Real Estate Prices Buildings Land Use Road Network Network 2015 SF-CHAMP Loaded Trips ABAG HH & Planning Networks Travel Times Job Totals Pipeline UrbanSim 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 Real Estate Prices Buildings Land Use Road Network Network 2020 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 6 etc...
Model Development Base Year Data Parcels Buildings Households Businesses Model Estimation, Calibration, Validation SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 7
Modeled Scenarios Scenario Name Land Use LUCI? Plan B (Best Guess) Plan B CHAMP only UrbanSim UrbanSim UrbanSim only LUCI Baseline UrbanSim yes LUCI + Projects UrbanSim yes SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 8
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment UrbanSim - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 UrbanSim > Plan B UrbanSim < Plan B SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 9
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment UrbanSim - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 UrbanSim > Plan B UrbanSim < Plan B SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 9
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment UrbanSim - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 UrbanSim > Plan B UrbanSim < Plan B SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 9
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment Plan B UrbanSim -562 - -317-1,000 - -563 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179 317-562 179-316 1,000-1,778 563-1,000 1,779-3,162 5,624-10,000 3,163-5,623 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 10
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 UrbanSim - Plan B 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 UrbanSim > Plan B UrbanSim < Plan B SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 11
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 UrbanSim - Plan B 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 UrbanSim > Plan B UrbanSim < Plan B SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 11
How does UrbanSim compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 Plan B UrbanSim -2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-215 - -101 216-464 101-215 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 2,155-4,642 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 21,545-46,416 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 12
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 13
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 13
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 13
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment UrbanSim LUCI Baseline -562 - -317-1,000 - -563 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179 317-562 179-316 1,000-1,778 563-1,000 1,779-3,162 5,624-10,000 3,163-5,623 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 14
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 15
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 15
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - UrbanSim 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 15
How Does CHAMP affect UrbanSim? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 UrbanSim LUCI Baseline -2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-215 - -101 216-464 101-215 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 2,155-4,642 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 21,545-46,416 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 16
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 17
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 17
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline - Plan B 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 17
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment Plan B LUCI Baseline SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 18
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - Plan B 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 19
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - Plan B 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 19
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline - Plan B 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 19
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 Plan B LUCI Baseline -2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-215 - -101 216-464 101-215 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 2,155-4,642 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 21,545-46,416 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 20
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment AM Volumes 2035 LUCI Baseline - Plan B 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-2,155 - -4,642-10,000 - -4,643 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 21
How does LUCI compare to our Best Guess? Households Employment AM Volumes 2035 LUCI Baseline - Plan B 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-2,155 - -4,642-10,000 - -4,643-21,554 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 22
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 23
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 23
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 3,163-5,623 1,001-3,162 563-1,000 317-562 179-316 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179-562 - -317-1,000 - -563-3,162 - -1,001-5,623 - -3,163 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 23
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Household Growth 2010 to 2035 Employment LUCI Baseline LUCI+ Projects -562 - -317-1,000 - -563 101-178 -178 - -101-316 - -179 317-562 179-316 1,000-1,778 563-1,000 1,779-3,162 5,624-10,000 3,163-5,623 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 24
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 25
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 25
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 21,545-46,416 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-10,000 - -4,643-21,544 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 25
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment* Growth 2010 to 2035 LUCI Baseline LUCI+ Projects -2,154 - -1,001-4,642 - -2,155-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-215 - -101 216-464 101-215 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 2,155-4,642 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 21,545-46,416 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 26
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment AM Volumes 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-2,155 - -4,642-10,000 - -4,643 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 27
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment AM Volumes 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-2,155 - -4,642-10,000 - -4,643 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 27
How Do Transportation Projects Affect LUCI? Households Employment AM Volumes 2035 (LUCI+ Projects) - (LUCI Baseline) 10,001-21,544 4,643-10,000 2,155-4,642 1,001-2,154 465-1,000 216-464 101-215 -215 - -101-464 - -216-1,000 - -465-2,154 - -1,001-2,155 - -4,642-10,000 - -4,643-21,554 - -10,001 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 28
VMT in San Francisco 0% Compared to Plan B -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% LUCI Baseline -5% LUCI+ Projects -8% SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 29
Lessons Learned Process Data Needs: quality and management Not evolutionary (hh ages, incomes, and sizes; businesses) Validation What are good questions for LUCI? SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 30
Future Improvements Base year Data Income, household size, businesses Better Popsyn Development Accessibility logsums (cost & time) rather than travel time Travel costs (especially wrt Congestion Pricing!!) Zoning Restrictions Vacancy rates affecting RE Prices Policy Inclusionary Zoning Zoning for higher capacity nodes and corridors Congestion Pricing SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 31
Acknowledgements Aksel Olsen, SF Planning Paul Waddell, UC Berkeley Liming Wang, UC Berkeley Zabe Bent, SFCTA Jeff Hood, former SFCTA Intern Nico Linesch, former SFCTA Intern SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 32
See Also Waddell, Paul, Liming Wang and Billy Charlton. Integration of Parcel-Level Land Use Model and Activity-Based Travel Model. Paper presented at the Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 13-17, 2008. Waddell, Paul, Liming Wang, Billy Charlton and Aksel Olson. Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco. Journal of Transport and Land Use Vol. 3 No. 2 (Summer 2010): 65-84. doi:10.5198/ jtlu.v3i2.124 Questions? lisa.zorn@sfcta.org 415.593.1660 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 33
Household Location Choice 1 Person Households Coefficient estimate std error t-stat apartment 1.09 0.01 89.69 condo -0.70 0.02-38.69 ln_avg_building_sf_per_unit -0.29 0.01-52.00 ln_avg_income_in_zone -0.78 0.03-28.11 ln_emp_30_lrt 0.01 0.01 1.91 ln_hholds_per_acre_in_zone2 0.02 0.00 104.21 ln_inc_avg_inc 0.70 0.03 24.74 ln_inc_minus_cost 0.07 0.00 33.86 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone2 0.01 0.00 56.90 single_family -1.95 0.01-134.93 Adj. likelihood ratio index: 0.419 Number of observations: 66,509 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 34
Household Location Choice 2 Person Households Coefficient estimate std error t-stat apartment 1.07 0.01 78.14 condo -0.81 0.02-38.33 ln_avg_building_sf_per_unit -0.27 0.01-42.95 ln_avg_income_in_zone -0.93 0.06-15.16 ln_hholds_per_acre_in_zone2 0.01 0.00 77.55 ln_inc_avg_inc 0.90 0.06 14.42 ln_inc_minus_cost 0.06 0.00 21.89 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone2 0.01 0.00 26.99 single_family -1.73 0.01-123.48 Adj. likelihood ratio index: 0.298 Number of observations: 49,851 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 35
Household Location Choice 3+ Person Households Coefficient estimate std error t-stat apartment 0.92 0.02 62.95 condo -1.18 0.03-46.89 ln_avg_building_sf_per_unit -0.23 0.01-36.07 ln_avg_income_in_zone -1.62 0.06-25.52 ln_hholds_per_acre_in_zone2 0.01 0.00 33.01 ln_inc_avg_inc 1.17 0.06 18.26 ln_inc_minus_cost 0.05 0.00 18.89 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone2-0.00 0.00-8.27 single_family -1.52 0.01-115.86 Adj. likelihood ratio index: 0.165 Number of observations: 48,133 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 36
Business Location Choice Management, Information and Professional Services (MIPS) Coefficient estimate std error t-stat age -0.02 0.00-0.77 bfar 0.15 0.00 4.08 ln_avg_income_in_zone 0.13 0.06 2.14 ln_emp_activity_3_win_10_min_hwy 0.29 0.10 3.02 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone -0.33 0.06-5.81 lrt_weighted_access_to_population 0.00 0.00 0.07 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 37
Business Location Choice Production, Distribution & Repair (PDR) Coefficient estimate std error t-stat bfar 0.03 0.00 22.58 ln_avg_income_in_zone 1.11 0.03 42.46 ln_emp_activity_4_win_10_min_hwy -0.44 0.02-21.17 ln_hholds_per_acre_in_zone -0.54 0.01-43.82 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone -0.15 0.01-11.18 lrt_weighted_access_to_population 0.00 0.00 49.25 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 38
Business Location Choice Retail Coefficient estimate std error t-stat age 0.00 0.00 0.54 bfar 0.01 0.00 1.69 ln_avg_income_in_zone 0.32 0.03 10.02 ln_emp_activity_5_win_10_min_hwy 0.07 0.03 2.53 ln_hholds_per_acre_in_zone -0.26 0.01-18.20 ln_jobs_per_acre_in_zone -0.21 0.02-11.76 lrt_weighted_access_to_population 0.00 0.00 10.25 SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 39