Climatic developments in the greater Danube region and challenges for the future Stuttgart, Germany Wachau, Austria Husi, Romania Tokaji, Hungary Prague, Czech Rep. Villa Yustina, Bulgaria Coast, Croatia Kisice, Slovakia Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim Hans R. Schultz University Oplenac, Serbia 11.10.2011 18.3.2010 A sense of place 50th degree latitude North Château Johannisberg, Geisenheim, Germany Hans R. Schultz 1
A sense of place Hans R. Schultz Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 2
Factors relevant for a changing climate Potential of greenhouse gases Gas CO 2 CH 4 (Methane) N 2 O nitrous oxide CFC s Persistence (years) 50-200 12 114 45 Relative greenhouse 1 23 296 4600 potential Contribution to anthropogenic change (%) 60 20 6 3 CO 2 (1954 = 315ppm, 2013= 400ppm) (close to 500ppm equiv.) IPCC report 2007 Stuttgart, Germany Wachau, Austria Husi, Romania Vineyard landscapes are tightly linked to climate (temperature, humidity, precipitation (amount and distribution), soil type and depth, evaporation, water use) Tokaji, Hungary Prague, Czech Rep. Villa Yustina, Bulgaria Coast, Croatia Kisice, Slovakia Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim Hans R. Schultz University Oplenac, Serbia 11.10.2011 18.3.2010 3
The image of Viticulture Tuesday, 1st of December 2015 The start of the Paris climate summit 08.11.2018 7 Global Viticultural zones Temperature isothermes during the growing season (12 22 C) Northern hemisphere (Apr. Oct.), southern hemisphere (Oct. April) Isothermes move to the poles~280 500 km (basis 2000) extension NH, reduction SH National Center for Atmospheric Research s Community Climate System Model (CCSM) A1B (mid range scenario): 1.4 x 1.4 Lat/Lon Schultz and Jones (2010) Climate induced Historic and Future Changes in Viticulture. Journal of Wine Research 21: 137 145 4
Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges Data analyses from 9 sites 8 sites extracted from the National Center for Environmental Information, US Geisenheim Prague Vienna Kosice Zagreb Pecs Belgrade Bucharest Sofia 5
average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, Geisenheim, England Germany (51,8 (50 Pecs, Oxford, Geisenheim, Hungary England Germany (46,0 (51,8 lat. (50 Zagreb, Pecs, Oxford, Hungary Croatia England (46,0 (45,8 (51,8 lat. Vienna, Zagreb, Pecs, Geisenheim, Hungary Austria Croatia (46,0 (48,2 Germany (45,8 lat. (50 Belgrade, Vienna, Zagreb, Oxford, Austria Croatia Serbia England (48,2 (45,8 (44,8 (51,8 lat. lat. Prague, Belgrade, Vienna, Pecs, Czeck Austria Hungary Serbia republic (48,2 (44,8 (46,0 (46 lat. (50,1 lat. lat. Sofia, Prague, Belgrade, Zagreb, Bulgaria Czeck Serbia Croatia (42,7 republic (44,8 (45,8 lat. (50,1 Bucharest, Sofia, Prague, Vienna, Bulgaria Czeck Austria Romania (42,7 republic (48,2 (44,5 lat. (50,1 lat. Kosice, Bucharest, Sofia, Bulgaria Slovakia Romania (42,7 (48,7 (44,5 lat. 10-year running mean 12 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Zagreb, Croatia Belgrade, Serbia Bucharest, Romania Pecs, Hungary Sofia, Bulgaria Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Repub. Geisenheim, Germany Kosice, Slovakia Oxford, England average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, Geisenheim, England Germany (51,8 (50 Pecs, Oxford, Geisenheim, Hungary England Germany (46,0 (51,8 lat. (50 Zagreb, Pecs, Oxford, Hungary Croatia England (46,0 (45,8 (51,8 lat. Vienna, Zagreb, Pecs, Geisenheim, Hungary Austria Croatia (46,0 (48,2 Germany (45,8 lat. (50 Belgrade, Vienna, Zagreb, Oxford, Austria Croatia Serbia England (48,2 (45,8 (44,8 (51,8 lat. lat. Prague, Belgrade, Vienna, Pecs, Czeck Austria Hungary Serbia republic (48,2 (44,8 (46,0 (46 lat. (50,1 lat. lat. Sofia, Prague, Belgrade, Zagreb, Bulgaria Czeck Serbia Croatia (42,7 republic (44,8 (45,8 lat. (50,1 Bucharest, Sofia, Prague, Vienna, Bulgaria Czeck Austria Romania (42,7 republic (48,2 (44,5 lat. (50,1 Kosice, Bucharest, Sofia, Bulgaria Slovakia Romania (42,7 (48,7 (44,5 lat. Bordeaux, France (44,5 Global brightening period 10-year running mean 12 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Range of about 4 C Bordeaux, France Zagreb, Croatia Belgrade, Serbia Bucharest, Romania Pecs, Hungary Sofia, Bulgaria Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Repub. Geisenheim, Germany Kosice, Slovakia Oxford, England 6
2003 2006 2050 1885-1925 1971-2000 2050 1885 1925 = 14.18 C 1926 1966 = 14.63 C 1967 1987 = 14.46 C 1988 2018 = 15.58 C Rheingau 2018 We only know the minimum temperature requirement, we do not know the maximum Jones et al. 2005; Climate Change 73: 319 343 Current varietal suitability for the greater Danube regioen After Formayer and Goler (2013) Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien, Österreichischer Klimatag 08.11.2018 14 7
Suitability change in varietal use over the next 90 years It is very likely that this will not be problematic It After Formayer and Goler (2013) Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 8
Dryness indices are getting better but are still only rough indicators of current and past vulnerability What do the data say? Including the CO 2 effect on water use severe water deficit No water deficit Fraga et al. (2016) Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe. Global Change Biology 22, 3774 3788 Summer rainfall trends? 9
hydrological summer May - October 600 summer precipitation rate (mm) 500 Geisenheim 400 300 Prague Geisenheim, Germany Pecs, Hungary 200 Zagreb, Croatia Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Republ. Kosice, Slovakia 100 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Vienna Zagreb Pecs summer precipitation rate (mm) 600 500 Kosice hydrological summer May - October Belgrade 400 300 200 Sofia Belgrade, Serbia Sofia, Bularia Bucharest, Romania Bucharest 100 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Changes in potential Evapotranspiration also play a role in water use 1000 Data 10 year running means Global brightening period annual pot. Evapotranspiration (mm) 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 Geisenheim Bordeaux 600 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA; German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst; 10
2007 2010 Flood in England Wilting Pinot noir 25.8.2018 2013 Sun burn (Germany). 2013 Danube flood in Passau June in Germany (Rheingau) 2018 wilting Pinot noir grapes Flood in Poland 2017 February flood in California 20.8.2015 Problem is the high spacial and temporal variability Hans R. Schultz 15.6.2010 Surface water run off (erosion) Difference to 1961 1990, 30 year mean Year Year Year Increase in surface run off (mm/year) Apr Sept Apr Sept Apr Sept Oct March Oct March Oct March Jahr Year (INKLIM III, Hofmann and Schultz unpublished) 11
winter rainfall trends? summer precipitation rate (mm) hydrological winter November - April 500 400 Geisenheim 300 200 Geisenheim, Germany Pecs, Hungary Vienna, Austria Belgrade, Serbia Prague, Czech Rep. Prague Vienna 100 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Zagreb Pecs summer precipitation rate (mm) Kosice hydrological winter November - April 500 400 300 Belgrade 200 Sofia Bucharest 100 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Zagreb, Croatia Sofia, Bulgaria Bucharest, Romania Kosice, Slovakia 12
Run off, erosion and leaching: Nitrate in the ground water where does Europe stand? Dr. R. Wolter 1. Wiesbadener Grundwassertag 24. September 2014 in Wiesbaden Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 13
Climate effects on soils, increase in soil temperature (the Potsdam time series) Since 1889 strong warming May August (1m depth 2.4 3.2 C!!) 1,6 1,4 *** mean trend 1889-2007 Trend in K absolute trend ( C) 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 ** *** ** ** * 0,2 0,0 air soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011 Hans R. Schultz Soils will be key for the planet and sustainability! 20 Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, England (51,8 10-year running mean average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Soil (1 m depth) warming rate in summer over the same time Geisenheim, Germany Oxford, England, UK Meteorological service 14
simulated annual total soil (root and soil) respiration rate (g C m -2 year) soil GHG emission estimation 620 600 580 560 540 520 500 480 soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany 10-year running average Projections A1 Projections A2 Projections B1 RCP 8,5 RCP 2,6 Measurements: Lehmann and Löhnertz (2014) unpublished Year the future Measurements Franck et al. (2011) New Phytologist 192, 939 951 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 + 15 % Analysis based on: Robinet, J. (1994) Statistical study of soil respiration: calculation of present day rates and anticipation of a double CO 2 world. In: NATO ASI Series, Vol. I Soil responses to climate change. Springer, 237 241, unpublished Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 15
Worldwide wine risk map (James Daniell of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Vienna) (Spiegel online, 27.4.2017) red = high, yellow = medium, green = low Most at risk: Mendoza/San Juan, Argentina Racha, Georgia Cahul, Moldova, North west Slovenia 31 Sugar and acidity development in the same vineyard since 1932 tot. acidity (g L -1 ) (tartaric eq.) 14 12 10 10-year running mean acidity 10-year running mean potential alcohol 8 9 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Global brightening period 12 11 10 pot. Alcohol ( ) 16
defoliation above the fruiting zone Stoll et al. (2009) In: 16 th International GiESCO Symposium, University of California, Davis, USA, 12. 15.7.: 93 96. Water consumption, varieties and rootstocks? Water use at night (mmol s 1 ) Riesling in Australia Semillon Chardonnay Shiraz SO4 Richter 110 Grenache Grapevines also use water during the NIGHT (the higher the temperature, the more) and this is varietal specific Rogiers et al. (2010) J. Exp. Botany Adelaide Hills, Australia Hans R. Schultz 17
Sustainable disease management may be the greatest challenge Old problems are becomming more difficult New diseases Wood diseases New insects Cabernet Franc grapevines showing red blotch disease (top left and bottom) and harvested normal grapevine (top right), October 2012. Pierces disease There are certainly more surprises ahead 2016 was a European downy mildew desaster Never before was such a disease pressure observed Esca 35 CO 2, an experimental view into the future 18
Grapevines in a future higher CO 2 world: The Geisenheim FACE system for special crops 6 Ringe (3 aktive, 3 passive, jeder 14m Durchmesser) 75 Pflanzen pro Ring, Cabernet Sauvignon und Riesling 08.11.2018 37 The Geisenheim FACE for special crops to takle the big questions Will water consumption decrease in a higher CO 2 world? How will different varieties behave (plant and fruit physiology)? soil population of micro organisms, will they be affected? gene expression of insects, what to expect? greenhouse gas emissions, where to go? 19
Summary The climatic developments are region specific in the greater Danube area Water will be the dominant issue in the future (both, too much and too little), we try to identify risk areas How to control erosion in a future world? This is a major challenge for sloped areas Summary How to control greenhouse gas emissions in a future world? We currently identify production options New technologies in a different context (soft pruning, minimal pruning (to delay ripening)) Cultural practices are constantly adapted The dangers of soil warming (organic matter decay, nitrogen release) 20
Summary Restart programs on rootstock biodiversity Preservation of varietal and clonal diversity Technology will help to preserve heritage and landscapes We need large experimental systems to study the future Look at it differently 1ha vineyard produces 10 Mio L of oxygen, enough for 20 people, worldwide we have 7.6 Mio ha, producing enough oxygen for 121 Mio. people And: save the earth, it s the only planet with WINE! My contribution to global warming! Thanks for the opportunity to be here, and thank you for your attention 21