Beef, Veal and Lamb Report Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef output last week was 8.7% less than the same week a year ago. Cattle supplies are limited and are expected to remain so which generally should be supportive of the beef markets. Expectations are for winter beef production to track 5% below the previous year despite record cattle weights. Holiday demand is supporting the beef ribeye and tenderloin markets but retailers will begin to shift their focus to more beef end cuts shortly. Typically ribeye prices peak this week and then move downward. Last year the choice 112a heavy ribeye market declined 22% during the last two weeks of the year. During this same time period beef chuck prices rose roughly 4%. Price USDA, FOB per pound.. Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Good Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Ground Chuck Decreasing Good 109 Export Rib (choice) Decreasing Good 109 Export Rib (prime) Increasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (choice) Increasing Good 112a Ribeye (prime) Increasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (choice) Decreasing Good 120 Brisket (choice) Increasing Good 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel.) Decreasing Good 167a Knckle, Trimmed (choice) Increasing Good 168 Inside Round (choice) Decreasing Good 174 Short Loin (choice 0x1) Increasing Good 174 Short Loin (prime 2x3) Increasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (choice) Decreasing Good 180 1x1 Strip (prime) Steady Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (choice) Increasing Good 184 Top Butt, boneless (choice) Increasing Good 184 Top Butt, boneless (prime) Decreasing Good 185a Sirloin Flap (choice) Decreasing Good 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (choice) Increasing Good 189a Tender (select, 5 lb & up) Increasing Good 189a Tender (choice, 5 lb &up) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (prime, heavy) Decreasing Good 193 Flank Steak (choice) Decreasing Good 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good 65% Trimmings Increasing Good 75% Trimmings Decreasing Good 85% Trimmings Increasing Good 90% Trimmings Increasing Good 90% Imported Beef (frozen) Steady Good Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good
Oil and Grains Report Oil & Grains- Oil, Grains, Misc- The wheat markets have found strength this week as major wheat exporter Russia threatens to limit trade. Russia's economy continues to face headwinds due to sanctions and declining crude oil prices. Modestly higher wheat prices may be looming. Prices USDA, FOB. Soybeans Decreasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil Decreasing Good Lower Soymeal Increasing Good Lower Corn Increasing Good Lower Crude Corn Oil Steady Good Lower Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Lower Crude Palm Oil Decreasing Good Lower Hard Red Winter Wheat Increasing Good Lower Dark Northern Spring Wheat Increasing Good Lower High Fructose Increasing Good Lower Durum Wheat Increasing Good
Dairy Report Dairy - The CME cheese markets have fallen sharply during the last week as demand seasonally fades and milk production continues to trend above year ago levels. Typically the cheese markets will continue to decline in the near term. However, given the nearly 30% downward move in cheese block prices during the last six weeks, it's more likely that the cheese markets find support for the rest of this month. Butter prices have softened as well as of late and history suggests further butter market declines should be pending. Last year butter prices fell 7% in December. Prices per pound, except Class I Cream (hundred weight), from USDA Cheese Barrels- CME Decreasing Good Lower Cheese 40 lb Blocks- CME Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Butter- One lb Solids Decreasing Good Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Good Lower Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Class I Milk Base Steady Good Class II Cream (Heavy Cream) Decreasing Good Class III Milk- CME Decreasing Good Lower Class IV Milk- CME Decreasing Good Lower
Pork Report Pork- Pork production last week was 2% less than the same week a year ago. Hog supplies are slowly improving compared to prior year levels. Further, hog weights are trending 1.5% heavier. These factors are expected to cause pork output to start to consistently trend above 2014 levels this winter. Pork belly prices have firmed as of late as demand is building. The three month disappearance for pork bellies beginning August 1 was the largest in the last 15 years. The downside price risk in bellies from here is likely only modest. Prices USDA, FOB per pound. Live Hogs Increasing Good Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Lower Spare Rib (4.25 & down) Decreasing Good Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Loin (bone-in) Increasing Good Baby Back Rib (1.75 & up) Decreasing Good Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Good Boston Butt, untrimmed 4-8 lb. Decreasing Good Picnic, untrimmed Decreasing Good SS Picnic, smoker trim boxed Increasing Good 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 72% Trimmings Increasing Good
Various Markets Report Various Markets- The world sugar supply is anticipated to decline in 2015 but remain historically adequate. However, if further sugar crop challenges develop it could influence the sugar markets upward. Still, a deflated Brazilian real could temper any pending sugar price increases. Price bases noted below Whole Peeled Standard Steady Good Tomato Paste-Ind (lb.) Steady Good Coffee, (lb.) ICE Sugar, (lb.) ICE Decreasing Decreasing Good Good Cocoa, mt. ICE Decreasing Good Orange Juice (lb) ICE Decreasing Good Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower
Poultry Report Poultry - Chicken output for the week ending November 21 declined 2.3% from the previous week but was 7% larger than the same week a year ago. Bird weights remained heavy up 4.7% versus 2013. Chicken production expansion compared to the prior year near 4% is anticipated during the next several months which should weigh on many of the chicken markets. The chicken wing markets have weakened as of late. Modest price increases could be forthcoming due to better demand for the football season. The five year average move for chicken wing prices in January is higher by 7% but any price inflation next month may be tempered by output gains. Prices USDA, FOB per pound except when noted Whole Chicken (2.5-3 lb-ga) Decreasing Good Chicken Wings, Whole Steady Good Chicken Wings, Jumbo Cut Increasing Good Chicken Breast, Bone-In Decreasing Good Chicken Breast, Bnless Sknless Increasing Good Chicken Tender (random) Steady Good Chicken Tender (sized) Steady Good Chicken Legs (whole) Decreasing Good Lower Chicken Leg Quarters Steady Good Chicken Thighs, bone in Increasing Good Lower Chicken Thighs, boneless Steady Good Lower Large Eggs Increasing Good Medium Eggs Increasing Good Whole Eggs- Liq Increasing Good Egg Whites- Liq Steady Good Egg Yolks- Liq Steady Good Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Good Turkey Breast- Bnls/Sknls Increasing Good
Seafood Report Seafood - Retail seafood prices remain elevated up 4.9% compared to the prior year during October. However, they were the lowest for any month since April. Retail seafood demand could improve in the coming months but the wholesale shrimp and salmon markets are still anticipated to track below the prior year levels due in a large part to better U.S. imports. Prices for fresh product, unless noted, per pound from Fisheries Market News Salmon, Whole (10-12 lb) n/a Good n/a Catfish, Filets n/a Good n/a Trout, Drn. (8-14 oz) n/a Good n/a Shrimp (16-20 count) Decreasing Good Lower Shrimp (61-70 count) Steady Good Lower Shrimp, Tiger (26-30 count) Steady Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz) Steady Good Snow Crab Legs (8 oz up) Steady Good Lower Cod Tails, 3-7 oz. Frz. Steady Good Lower Cod Loins, 3-12 oz. Frz. Steady Good Salmon Portions, 4-8 oz. Frz. Increasing Good
Beans and Rice Report Pinto Beans Decreasing Good Lower Black Beans Decreasing Good Lower Rice, Long Grain Steady Good Lower Paper Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Decreasing Good PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Decreasing Good Retail Price Change from Prior Month Oct-14 Sept-14 Aug-14 Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Increasing Dairy Increasing Increasing Increasing Pork Decreasing Increasing Increasing Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Increasing Increasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Produce Report Produce- Weather challenges both in Mexico and Florida are limiting the tomato supply. Tomato shipments last week were down 15% from the prior week and 17% from the same week a year ago. Mexico and Florida accounted for 91% of all tomato shipments last week. Some modest supply relief could be forthcoming in tomatoes as the chief Florida harvest area transitions to Immokalee. The potato markets are elevated due in part to holiday demand. Modestly lower potato prices could occur next month. Prices USDA FOB shipping point unless noted (terminal). Limes (150 count) Decreasing Good Lemons (95 count) Decreasing Good Lemons (200 count) Increasing Good Honeydew (6 ct.) Increasing Good Cantaloupe (15 count) Steady Good Blueberries (12 count) Decreasing Good Strawberries (12 pints) Steady Good Lower Avocados, Hass (48 count) Decreasing Good Bananas (40 lb)-term. Decreasing Good Pineapple (7 ct.)- Term. Decreasing Good Idaho Potato (60 count) Increasing Good Idaho Potato (70 count) Increasing Good Idaho Potato (70 count)-term. Decreasing Good Lower Idaho Potato (90 count) Steady Good Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz. min.) Increasing Good Processing Potato (100 lb) Increasing Good Yellow Onions (50 lb) Steady Good Lower Yellow Onions (50 lb)-term. Decreasing Good Lower Red Onions (25 lb)-term. Decreasing Good Lower White Onions (50 lb)-term. Increasing Good Lower Tomatoes, (large- case) Steady Good Tomatoes, (5x6, 25 lb.)-term. Increasing Good Tomatoes, Vine Ripe, (4x5) Decreasing Good Roma Tomatoes (large- case) Decreasing Good Roma Tomatoes (xlarge- case) Decreasing Good Green Peppers (large- case) Decreasing Good Red Peppers (large- 15 lb. cs.) Decreasing Good Iceberg Lettuce (24 count) Decreasing Good Iceberg Lettuce (24 cnt)-term. Decreasing Good
Produce Report (continued) Leaf Lettuce (24 count) Decreasing Good Romaine Lettuce (24 count) Decreasing Good Mesculin Mix (3 lb)-term. Steady Good Broccoli (14 cnt.) Decreasing Good Squash (case) Increasing Good Zucchini (case) Decreasing Good Green Beans (bushel) Decreasing Good Spinach, Flat 24 s Decreasing Good Mushrooms (large), Term. Decreasing Good Lower Cucumbers, Bushel Decreasing Good Pickles (200-300 ct.)-term. Increasing Good Lower Asparagus (small) Steady Good Lower Freight (CA to City Avg.) Increasing Good