Facts, Figures, Forecasts. Kevin Baker Account Director Alcoholic Beverages 14 th May 2013

Facts, Figures, Forecasts Kevin Baker Account Director Alcoholic Beverages 14 th May 2013 1

Agenda Global Beer Market Trends Consolidation Emerging Markets Craft Beer The Radler Phenomenon Cider Forecasts & Summary

Global Beer Trends 3

The Fall & Rise 2,500,000 MHL YoY Growth 7.0% 2,000,000 6.0% 5.0% 1,500,000 4.0% 1,000,000 3.0% 2.0% 500,000 1.0% 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0% 02 12-520 MHL Incremental Volume Average CAGR 3.1%

Regional Variations Global CAGR 2006-2012 2.0% 6.1% 5.1% 0.3% -1.6% -1.6% 3.3% 3.1% -1.1% 720 Volume in 000 HL 2012 1,951 MHL 250 269 326 249 108 21 8 Per Capita 2012 Africa Asia Australasia Europe (East) Europe (West) Latin America MENA North America 30 12 19 74 62 65 54 5 72 5

Regional Growth 2000 Beer MHL Geographic Mix 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Africa Asia MENA Latin America Australasia East Europe North America West Europe

Asia Drives Volume, But Africa Growing Fastest Increm. MHL 06 12 CAGR 06 12 Africa Asia Australasia Latin America East Europe MENA North America West Europe Africa Asia Australasia Latin America East Europe MENA North America West Europe -50 0 50 100 150 200 250-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Consolidation 8

Consolidation The Story Continues

The World s Top 10 Brewers 2013 (Estimate) Rank 1. Company Volume (mhls) A-BInBev 404.4 (inc. Kingway) 2. SABMiller (inc CRB) 299.5 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Heineken Carlsberg Tsingtao Yanjing Molson Coors Kirin Asahi Castel (inc Modelo ex-usa) (inc APB) (inc. Chongqing) 177.1 124.4 76.9 58.5 58.2 43.5 28.4 22.7 Based on 2012P data

Global Consolidation 1998 2013P All Others 66% Top 10 Brewers 34% All Others 35% Top 10 Brewers 65%

The Big Five 54%

Emerging Markets 13

Asia Drives Volume, But Africa Growing Fastest Increm. MHL 06 12 CAGR 06 12 Africa Asia Australasia Latin America East Europe MENA North America West Europe Africa Asia Australasia Latin America East Europe MENA North America West Europe -50 0 50 100 150 200 250-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Emerging vs Mature Markets Increm. MHL 06 12 Share of Global Market, 2012 Emerging Markets Mature 31% Mature Markets Emerging 69% -200 0 200 400

Brewers Exposure to Emerging Markets A-BInBev SABMiller Heineken Mature 41% Mature 33% Mature 37% Emerging 59% Emerging 67% Emerging 63% Mature 29% Mature 82% Carlsberg Emerging 71% Emerging 18% Molson Coors

Growth Outlook Forecast YoY Growth, 2012-2018 3.5% Emerging 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Mature 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Forecast Market Growth China Brazil Vietnam USA Mexico India Colombia South Africa Argentina Nigeria Incremental Volume 000 s HL 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Africa Awakes The African Market is set to grow faster than Asia There is a clear trend towards developing more premium offerings At the other end of the spectrum many brewers are looking at non-malt alternatives to produce lower cost products

The Craft Beer Phenomenon 20

Defining Craft Beer The Brewers Association in the US defines Craft beer as being produced by brewers who are: Small <6 million barrels per year Independent Less than 25% equity held by a larger brewer Traditional Flagship brand is an all malt beer

Defining Craft Beer The problem with this definition is that it excludes many products that consumers would probably consider craft beer : Leffe Doom Bar Jacobsen Blue Moon Affligem Grimbergen etc. etc.

Defining Craft Beer Canadean believes that a better definition would be : Products either produced by microbreweries or Superpremium speciality (typically non-lager) beers* brewed by larger brewers *excluding Guinness

The Bigger Picture Craft Beers is part of a wider trend towards more local, smaller scale, traditionally made products Other examples of this trend can be seen in cheese; bakery; chocolate; and in the success of farmer s markets

The Rise of Craft Beer 25,000 000's HL 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 02 12 11.1 MHL Incremental Volume Average CAGR 6.9%

Leading Craft Markets USA Germany France Italy Belgium Netherlands Poland Austria Russia UK Volume 000 s HL 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00

Radler Sweetening the Pils 27

The Drift To the Sweet Spot There is a clear consumer need for products that offer the following : around 5% Abv packaged in single serve bottles Sweet/Easy To Drink Refreshing Affordable This need can be met by less bitter beers Fruit Beer (or beers served with fruit) Beermixes FAB s/premixes Cider

Has the drift to Sweetness halted? There is a some evidence that consumers are now looking for more challenging bitter flavours Examples are the increased Examples are the increased popularity of espresso coffee, dark/bitter chocolate; Gin & Tonic and the launch of a less sweet cider by Lambrini.

Mixing It Up The mixing of Beer with Soft Drinks (especially Lemonade) is surprisingly widespread. These drinks are known as Shandy in the UK; Panach in France and Switzerland; Radler in Germany and Austria; and (with the addition of Worcester Sauce!) Michelada in Mexico. These products really took off in Germany where the category now accounts for almost 6% of the total beer market These drinks have now been very successfully launched in Eastern Europe

Radler Growth in East Europe Hungary Croatia Slovenia Serbia Ukraine Romania Lithuania Latvia Czech Republic Bosnia Radler Volume 000 s HL 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00

New Radlers Croatia Hungary Romania Slovenia Czech Republic UK

Cider 33

Global Cider : Steady Growth Global Cider Volume 000 s HL CAGR 99 12P: 3.8%

Cider Not Small Beer! 18% 16% 14% Cider as % of Beer Market 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Apple Dominates - Pear & Flavoured Growing Faster Cider Types 2012 06-12 Volume CAGR 36

Local Preferences Cider Types by Region

Cider Is Still Predominantly European Beer Cider North America 4% Latin America 7% Africa/Middle East 7% Europe 75% Australasia 6% Asia 1%

The World s Largest Cider Brands Strongbow Magners/Bulmers (Ireland) Savanna 766 1,678 3,415 Kopparberg Bulmers Original Hunter's Somersby 358 676 666 590 Ranking: 2012 KHL Westons Frosty Jack's 348 311 Stella Cidre 265 Note: Excludes Poland volumes for Somersby

Global Cider Market Outlook Cider growth expected to slow down but remain positive Slowdown in mature markets tempered by growth in new markets, especially in Eastern Europe Growth will continue to be driven by pear and flavored cider Category will face competition from new wave of flavoured alcoholic beverages and flavoured beers/beermixes Entry of all major brewers into category will drive growth and disrupt competitive landscape

Forecasts & Summary 41

Global Beer Market Outlook 2,500 MHL YoY Growth 2.5% 2,000 2.0% 1,500 1.5% 1,000 1.0% 500 0.5% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.0% 12 18-269 MHL Incremental Volume Average CAGR 2.2%

Global Beer Market Trends Global market growth at a much lower lower rate than before the 2008 crash Growth rates between emerging markets (Asia; Africa; LatAm) and mature markets (Europe, North America) will continue to widen China continues to grow but growth rate slowing Africa will be the region to watch Key markets to watch are Brazil; Vietnam; Mexico and India

Global Beer Market Trends Craft Beer is a hot topic although there is little consensus over how to define it! Radler volumes have exploded in East Europe and are fuelled by the trend towards sweeter beverages Cider continues to grow and outperform beer in many markets Consolidation slows but no signs that we have reached the endgame yet!

2014 Canadean predict that Global Beer Volume will top 2 billion hectolitres Will there be any further large scale mergers and acquisitions? Will West European volumes continue to fall? Will the Russian market return to growth? Can Cider continue to grow? Will Craft and Radlers continue to boom? See you next year!