UNITED NATINS ECNMIC AND SCIAL CUNCIL Distr. LIMITED Ji)/CN.14/INR/179 11 August 1969 riginals ENGLISH..CNQMI jvr AFRICA 3jV..RAa, imxjsthi.3 IN C WITHAL AFRICA M]ASaR:ilS AED FUTURE PRSP JJCTS CNTENTS Chapter I. II. III. iv. V. VI. FuH^'JuEH: HISTRICAL A1H) G.^T^EAL 1-3 G mral 3tJHY,jY ^ B.,V,RA.G:. PRDUCTIuS III THj CCUNTHI.JS ^F TH, CJTTEAL APRICM S1JB-R..GILN 4-14 D^MD AIjD DISTRISUTI.N _P SFT LHIMC3, B.,,;R AND ^THjR ALCE^LIC DEI1TKS 15-20 Cnsumptin patterns in t;-j- sab-hjgicn ClMPAHvD VJITE TH.SJ J? 3.,^ S..JL.DGT..D C^'JNTEI'JS 21-23 FUTURE PRSP.XTS ^ B.JV,RAG,J I>II)USTRI3S IN Til, Sas-R3GI..N 24-32 CHJLTI^N k,f ADDITINAL 3:VjRAG^ I-IANFACTURING CAPACITIES IN TH.J 3U3-5^GI^N 33-38 M69-1995
!?!«^... ^^^^ I. FREWRD s HISTRICAL AND GEHERAL. ^ Frewrd 1. This paper deals with the tw main grups f drinks whih are generally described as beverages and lie under the majr grup 21 in the ISIC (inter natinal Standard Industrial Classificatin). The first grup - nn-alchli beverages - includes mineral waters, aerated waters, and flavured waters* The ther grup is divided int beer and ther alchlic drinks such as wine, cider and distilled alchlic beverages. 2. The beer industry will be treated separately in this paper since it represents the main branch in beverage industries* 3. There was difficulty in btaining data n alchlic beverages ther than beerf fr example, the vlume f prductin, raw materials required, value added and labur frce are, t a great extent, nt available. 4. As fr this grup (alchlic beverages ther than beer), special atten tin shuld be given t the supply thrugh imprts, the vlume f whih reached 1»349>45Q hectlitres with a value f JS$8.6 millin in 1963. 5. Whereas the vlume f imprted alchlic drinks ther than beer was 515,420 hi in the Western sub-regin (ppulatin ver 90 millin) in 1?63, in the Central Afrian Sub^regin (ppulatin 26 millin) the vlume amunted t 1,349s45 hi in the same year. Histrical and General-^ 6. There are many legends cnnected with the rigin and histry f spirits. In this respect we may ffer here nly a few f the fascinating tales. But ne fact emerges clearly; every civilizatin has had its liqur. Egyptian carvings and paintings depict distilling apparatus. Shahs f India sipped liqurs made frm flwers in 800 B.C. The great philspher, Aristtle, has mentined liqur, and legend has. it that Alexander the Great passed the first lving up as a peace gesture between Macednians and Persians. Gerge Washingtn was ne f the early American distillers. Belw are a few examples f hw different liqurs acquired their names which are still used cmmercially as internatinally well-knwn industrial prducts. (a) Whiskys The wrd "whisky" evlved frm "uisge" r "usque", bth f Celtic rigin. As early as the 12th century the Irish drank "uisge lah", meaning "water f life". 1/ See The Beverages Industry in the West African Sub-regin
Page 2 (b) Vdkas Bth Russia and Pland claim t be the birthplace f this ptable, almst as ld as the Slavs themselves. But its name stems frm the Russian "vdk" meaning "little water". At ne time, vdka was made frm ptates, but American vdkas are made frm grains.. (c) Gins A 17th century prfessr at Hlland's Leiden University, experimenting with distilling (r mixing a bath f hme brew), is credited.with discvering "genievre", French fr "juniper", a berry whicii gives gin. its flavur. It was the isnglish wh shrtened the name t gin, (d) Rums riginally "rhum" began as a by-prduct f sugar manufacturing. It was p'rtibably the first liqur distilled in clnial United States. 7. The brewing f beer is a ver^ ancient industry and has been practised fr thusands f years by the Egyptians and the Assyrians. The prcess may still be imprved fr there are many prblems assciated with brewing. Scientific studies f brewing began nly abut seventy-five years ag. The tw main factrs necessary in the brewing technique are based partly n well established scientific facts and partly n empirical knwledge gained frm years f practical experience. 8. Brewing can be classed amng the agr allied industries since it draws its materials frm this surce. Prm the ecnmic pint f view, brewing is an extremely imprtant industry linked with the agricultural sectr. 9. n a wrld-wide scale, abut 300 millin hectlitres (6,600 millin gallns) f beer are prduced annually, fr which abut 5 millin tns f cereals and abut 50 millin kilgrammes (l millin wt) f hps are used. In sme Eurpean cuntries, the brewing industry ccupies a significant place amng industries. Fr example, it is particularly imprtant in Belgium, since it is the third largest industry f the cuntry, metal smelting and cal mining being the mst prminent. Cnsiderable amunts f beer are cnsumed annually in Eurpe. The per capita annual cnsump tin f beer in three Eurpean cuntries is as fllws: XJ Cuntry Per capita annual cnsumptin f beer Belgium 140 litres (250 pints) United Kingdm ' 75 " Germany (West) 75 " If Jean de Clerk, A textbk f Brewing, Vlume 1, 1957.
B/CK.14/IHR/L79 Page 3 10. In the wrld market f sft drinks, there are quite a number f prducts where substances ther than alchl cntribute t the taste, stimulatin and flavuring materials. In sme f these drinks, sugar is added, and in thers n sweetening' cmpnents are included. Sft drinks are sld under a wide variety f cmmercial names, sme f which are widely knwn thrughut the wrld (e.g. Cca-Cla, Pepsi Cla). Pepsi Cla, which was riginally an American drink, is nw being prduced in mre than ^8 cuntries. The Pepsi Cla frmula was created in I896 by the wner f a drug stre, Caleb Bradham, in the small twn f New Bern, Wrth Carlina. The basis is cane sugar, vanilla, essential ils, spices and cla nut. Althugh the principal base f ingredients fr the Pepsi Cla syrup frmula is well knwn, the exact details are a wellkept secret. The Pepsi Cla rganizatin has tw hemists wh alne-, knw the e^act details f the frmula. Als, in almst every cuntry whe-xe sft drinks are prduced, there are, in additin t the internatinally knwn sft drinks, many lcal cmmercial names.
Page 4 ^ff 0F mmas BS F TH3 CEMTP41 APRICA1T SUB-KSGIN Chad capacity) per Z^ malt and h^s - are als used in this n this factry- "e and cereals are ^IteTaf^TS B^^ ^ ( pi^ «* are directed t the lcal market % t"+ Md '?" drinkb?^uctx 100 laburers, cst USS2,35T' Infill I ^ 8D1Pl ys arund 22,000 hi ut r.hich"5;03050'ht;ereu9du6ced^ Si" Cng L. \risre;in:ihe bttles f sda, le.nx and"tlr tw additinal factries in l des Gabn" and "Sci<He The? *«1,600,000 - / Plan de ^evelppement ecnmiqufl et. I966-I970.
Page 5 Cng (Demcratic Republic)-* 16. The first tw breweries were bull t^ in Kinshasa and Lubumhashi (frmerly Ilisabethviiie) in the years 1923 and 1925, respectively. The prductin f these tw factries reahed 30,000 hi in 1931* 17. Between 1946 and 1956, annual beer prductin jumped frm 182,000 hi t 1,229,000 hi. In I960 -there were 13 factries belnging (except fr ne) t the three main cmpanies mentined befre. 18. The demand fr beer increased after independence and almst dubled between 1958 and 1962. Beer cnsumptin stayed stable after 1962 and the vlume f prductin was limited t?,100»000 hi. The 1964 mnetary changes affected demand, and the level f beer prductin 4ecrefteed t 1,900,000 hi. Xt then increased t 2,017 0 hi in 1965» hwever. In 1965 per capita beer cnsumptin was estimated at 20 litres? Lal prductin f beer cvered 75 per cent f lcal demand in the years befre the war, but after 1946 lcal prductin f beer cvered 99 per cent f lcal cnsumptin...... 19. Cmpared t ther African cuntries, the lal beer in the Cng is cnsumed in large measure by freigners as well as by the indigenus ppulatin.. "20. The value added in the beer industry in the Cng (Dem-rati kepibii) represents 80 per cent f the ttal utput f this^industry. In 1964 the value added in the beer industry amunted t US$8 millin which represented 39 per cent f the ttal value added fr industries prducing fr the internal market. 21. tfhe relative size f the value added in the beer industry shws the disequilibrium f the industrial structure where t much stress is placed n the prductin f cnsumer gds. 22. Cmpared t ther African cuntries, the beer industry in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) is much larger as seen in Table 1. 23. The brewing industry imprts its basic materials (malt and hps} frm abrad. There was a factry fr prduing malt in Bukavu, bit this activity was discntinued during the truble which tk place during 1961-1964. The beer industry in the.cng (Demcratic Republic) cnsumes lcal sugar, rice and maize, and greater effrts are being made t,_ stimulate and- increase the prductin f these prducts. Bttles and crwns are prduced in tw factries in Kinshasa t prvide the beverage industry with its requirements. 24- The beer industry in the Cng (Demcratic Republi) is cnsidered as sanitary and beneficial sine it substitutes fr the artis»nal alchlic drinks which ften have adverse effets n health. 1/ See "Etude d! rientatin pur le plan de develppement de diversificatin industriel".
E/CN.14/INR/179 Page 6 Prductin f beer in selected Afrian (millin hectlitres Cng (Demcratic Republic) '. Cng (Brazzaville) Camern Central African '; Republic - Mrcc Kenya. Nigeria Uganda Senegal Ghana UAR 1,196 179 19 495 391 139.6 117.7 126.3 53.2 107 l 1,358 211 23 308 ' 399 202.5 74.8 102.8 58.0 109 32>7 234, 29 315 388 219.1 78.3 82.5 53.5 141 21.3 214 49 310 296 239.3 114.1 88.7 93.6 162 2,128 17-9. 206 66 290 396 208.8 122.3 97.2 13'.'7 " 192 2,108 29.4 238 66 277 440 446.0 122.9 : I8.7 197-7 195 Surce 5 Statistical Yearbk. 1964. 25. While there are mre sft drinks factries than breweries in the" Cng (Demcratic Republic), the frmer are less imprtant when measured by the vlume f utput in bth branches. Apart frm the breweries pr ducing sft drinks, there are ten small factries prducing lemnades and aerated waters.?,s ttal Prductin f lemnades and ther sft drinks was 300,000 hi 111 }l%* CSEpareit 350,000 hi in 1962. It then declined t 271,000 hi in 1964. The 1966 prductin f sft drinks in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) reached 475,000 hi, f which 185,000 hi were prduced in the breweries. 27. The fllwing survey shws the situatin f beer and sft drink units as well as capaities and prductin in the Cng (Demcratic Republic). ^,2,.! Capacities and prductin f beer and sft drinks in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) ~ ~". Factry Lcatin Capacity (l hi) 1967 Prductin f beer Beerfc^t drinks 1966 Brallma Bralima Bralima Bralima, Ttal Bralima Brassekat Brassekat Brassekat Brassekat Ttal Brassekat Kinshasa Braa Kisangani Bukavu Lubumbashi Klwezi Jadtville Kamina 1,132.2 360.0 855 160 26 480 189.2 37.2 a/ 149.5 b/ 855-9 244.2 153.4 205.59 c/ 167.7' 770.8
Page 7 Table 2 (cntinued) Capacity (1000'hi)'1967 Factry - Lcatin Beer" Sft drinks UNIBRA Kinshasa UUIBRA.. Sicaagani UWIBBA. Paulis TJKIHRA. Luluaburg Ttal UMBRA. 924 $6 Prductin f beer. 1?66 348. 103. & 47. 3 107. 2 606. 3 Brasserie de Mann 10 2 7-3 ~ Ttal Cng : (Demcratic. /.. - Hepublic) 2,921-2 284 ; ". 2,240.3 Surce;; Infrmatin llected by an ECA missin t Central Africa. &/ Wrking far. belw capacity. _b/ Als manufacturing malt......-. - 0/ The brewery was reently expanded (1966-67). :... -. '. ; The Central African Republic.. 28. Sme 10,000 hi (the capacity is estimated at 2,0,hl) f sft drinks are estimated t have been prduced in the Central ;African Republic, in 1963, With capacity f 180,000 hi, beer prductin was 66,.hl^n 1963 and 110,000 hi in 1966. 29. A distillery has been prvided fr in the "Plan interimaire Biennial". 30. As mentined in paragraph 3* n recrds f alchlic beverages ther than beer are available fr all the cuntries f the sub-regin. This paper will deal with figures f imprts as the nly surce which cvers the lcal demand in the sub-regin. This.hypthesis might cnceal the fac:i(lthat natinal distilleries might be in peratin, but fr ne reasn r.anther their utput is nt statistically recrded. Sft drink prduc tin in 1966 reached 30,000'hi, f which 20,000 hi were prduced in the breweries.
E/CN.14/INR/179 Page 8 Camern, 31 Beer was ne f the main exprts f industrial prducts in 1963, and amunted t arund US$270,000, AfteA- 1963? the amunt decreased't arund US$260,000. The..first brewery was established in Duala in 1948, with prductin f 20,000 hi. This increased t 60,000 hi in 1954 and t' 120,000 hi" in 1956". The beer brands prduced "bea? the names "Beaufrt", blnde 33" and "Staut 33". In 1963, the beer industry prduced 250,000 hi, as cmpared t 23^,000 hi in i960. The capacity f this factry is 22,000 "bttles per hur, r 500,000 hi annually. The beer prductin in Canjern increased in the years 19643 1965 and 1966 t 380,000, 436,000 and 465j hi respectively. 32. Besides beer, the brewery prduces 97,000 hi f sft drinks,and 33,000 tns f ice. The sft drinks prduced are spda, tnic, squash, lemnade, grenadine, menthe, champagne, sda, syrup with sugar and fruit juice. The annual capacity f sft drink prductin is 200,000 hi. Sft drink prductin in the Camern reached full capacity in 1966. The labur frce in this factry cmprises 400 Africans and 30 Eurpeans (technicians). There is a branch f this factry in Yaunde whih prduces' ice, and sme aerated waters. ^ 33. As will be seen frm Table 3> the bulk f "beverage prductin is represented by beer. The Demcratic Republic f the Cng has the -biggest share in sft drinks as well as beer. ' 34. The share f beer and sft drinks prductin in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) t the ttal prductin f these drinks in the sub-regin is higher than the share f ppulatin in the cuntry t that f the sub-regin. This cuntry had 88 per cent f the beer prductin in the sub-regin, whereas its ppulatin was nly 58 Per cent f the whle ppulatin in the sub-regin. General bservatins n beverage industries in Central Afric a-' 35» Ths prductin f beer and the capacities f breweries have increased very fast cmpared with 1962, when prductin amunted t 2,525,000 hi and capacities t 2,630,000 hi. These ttals are smewhat distrted by the fact that sme breweries in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) have been wrking'far belw their capacity (and previus utput figures). This refers t breweries lcated in nrth-eastern and eastern areas wnih are disrganized as a result f the revlutin. ther breweries have, been als-wrking belw capaity due t the shrtages f supply f imprted materials (malt, hps). In abslute terms the prductin has increased in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) at 0.6 per cent per annum and in the UDEAC cuntries at 11.9 per cent per annum. 1/ This sectin is based n infrmatin cllected by an ECA missin which visited Central Africa in April-May 1967.
Table 3 : Prductin f drinks in the Central African Bb-regin in 1963 Sft drinks Beer hi ther " alchlic hi ;1 Chad 10 r 2 - - - Camern 110.000 23 25t 8 Gabn 4,400 1 -. - Central African Republic 10 f 2 66,000 3 Cng (Demcratic Republic) 330 f 70 2P500.000 88 Cng (Brazzaville) 10 t 2 29f400 1 Ttal sub-regin 474t400 100 2P845f400 100 \ hi Ttal 10f000 36t 4r400 76r 2r83E 39-400 3r319r8Q 0.3 10.9 0.1 2.3 85.3 1.1 100 Ppulatin 1963 3 t250,000 5 f0p000 462t000 1 P312t000 15 r102t000 885r000 26.011.000 f ttal 12.5 19 2 5 58 3.5 100 s t-* -4 v "f
E/CN.14/imt/l79 Page 10 36. The particular situatin in Cng (Demcratic Republic) is als reflected "by the rates f capacity increase during the perid 1962-1967. which have been fr the Cng (Demcratic Republic) 5.8 per cent per annum and fr the UDEAC cuntries 16.4 per cent per annum. 37- Beer imprts (still imprtant) fi*m verseas, as well as the cn sumptin trends, still remain t be studied carefully.. It shuld be mentined that there is an imprtant imprt-exprt trade in beer (and t sme extent in sft drinks) amng the UDEAC cuntries. Lcatin f breweries and transprt csts as well as lcal tastes, f curse, play very imprtant rles in this respet. 38. Whereas demand fr beer seems t spiral up very'fast, the increase f cnsumptin f sft drinks is lagging cnsiderably behind. The relatively unimprtant price difference between beer and sft drinks seems t be the explanatin. Sft drinks are suppsedly cnsumed by the Mslem ppulatin and very little by wmen, children and yungsters (these grups have little mney at their wn dispsal). 39«Generally, all directrs f breweries agree that in the sub-regin the cnsumptin f sft drinks was at the level f 20 per cent (in vlume) in relatin t beer. This prprtin tends nevertheless t decrease in favur f beer. 40. There are still imprts f sft drinks frm verseas. This may be explained by Eurpean Cmmn Market facilities cmbined with wider cmmercial, margin applied t imprted cmmdities. 41. In the pinin f the managers f the breweries, wine cnsumptin has levelled, ff. The slight grwth f cnsumptin by expatriates is ffset by the decrease f Africans' cnsumptin. Lcal wines (palm, banana) are steadily lsing their previus imprtance, and are increasingly limited t mre remte areas as they are. rarely cmmercialized. 42. The manufacture f strng alchlic liqurs is negligible. They are almst entirely imprted. The expatriate sectr is the majr cnsumer f* them, estimatad rughly at sme 70-80 per cent. Cntrary t the habits develping nw in Anglphne cuntries, increased cnsumptin f strng alchlic beverages has nt been bserved amng the African ppulatin in the UDSAC cuntries r in the Cng (Demcratic Republic), 43. Practially all the breweries manufacture syrups and ice fr lcal market Camern ' 44. The Beaufrt brewery (in Camern) is nw being expanded and by the beginning f 1968 will have a capacity f 700,000 hi. The erectin f tw new breweries is als being cnsidered, namely in Yaunde, with an initial capacity f 200,000 hi, and in Garua - 50,000 hi. It is expected that these capacities will be balanced by demand smewhere arund 1970. 1/ Frm discussins with the Directr f the Beaufrt brewery in Duala-
e/ch.hanb/3.79 Page 11 45. A bttle f beer shuld cst (fficial retail priee) Fr. CPA 7^85 in shps, Fr. CFA 100 and mre when sld by peddlers. The indirect tax n beer (llected frm breweries) is Fr. CFA 15 per litre. 46. The market is grwing fast, and there is n expectatin that the present trend will change sn. Sme beer is exprted t Gabn, Chad and the Cng (Brazzaville) - Pinte Nire area. 47. The malt is imprted frm Czechslvakia r Germany (12-14 kg per hi f beer). The same cuntries supply hps. 48. The demand fr sft drinks (sda water) is expected t grw muh slwly than that fr beer. The Central African Republic-' 49. The Maf brewery (in CAR) is being expanded and its capacity by 1968 will be 180,000 hi f beer plus 20,000 hi f aerated drinks. In 1966 it prduced 110,000 hi f beer, f which 40 per ent was cnsumed in the CAR (mstly in Bangui and ther urban areas), 40 per cent was exprted t the Cng (Brazzaville) - mstly nrthern regin up t Brazzaville itseir, and 20 per cent -t Chad (eastern part, mstly Frt Arhambault and area;. Directrs f the brewery believe that they culd sell muh mre and that the market is far frm being saturated, especially in the rural areas where distributin is nt prperly rganized. J 50. In 1966 they used 1,800 tns f malt imprted frm verseas. 51. The investment utlays fr the capacity extensin have been in the range f Fr. CFA 100<millin. Chad 52. The nly brewery (in Lcgne ) is nt well lated, either frm the pint f view f servicing the cuntry's market r in respect t allweather transprt f supplies and utput. Five mnths in the year the brewery is virtually ut ff frm the rest f the wrld. 53. nly sme 60 per cent f the capacity is used. Abut 14 per ent f the prductin is exprted t the CAR (2,200 hi). ' 54. Nevertheless, the actual five-year plan envisages an expansin f capacity t 45,000 hi by 1969-70, hping that the planned imprvement f the rads will enable cheaper and easier distributin f mre lcal beer thrughut the untry. The requisite investment utlays are estimated at Fr. CFA 50 millin.. 55. Sft aerated drinks are manufactured, n a small scale, mainly in Frt Lamy and in Frt Archambault. The cnsumptin is abut 20 per cent (in vlume) f beer, and this trend is expected t cntinue. 1/ Frm discussins with the Directr f the Maf brewery in Bangui.
E/CJT.14/IKR/179 Page 12 Cng (Brazzaville) il Bpiue+f/t?? 1SS f the part f the Camernian,' Gabnese and see G^r^n /fn1 fmainin* sprts t Gabn, will be lst sn, T th«' * &1 \ br8wery and the <P«*«in f the CAR beer in Si vt ^ MJPPtant lsses f sales in the suth with Pint Nire's new Krnenburg brewery) demand and utput grw steadily. The Primus brewery m Brazzaville has been recently expanded up t 100,000 hi Ttltl'^ STw**6* that *7 ^^9.further expansin will be necessary ^l)? meet th9 demand' ** Bales uld ^ increased if the.^ai1 trade cnditins in rural areas were imprved. P V-f9 interir nw s^, if available, tzp ttf'j?:. FA W1 Petai1 ri ** CFA 65' A tttle ^eans 0.73- l«r- in l but in at?+in 1966Va new tw^y (Krnenburg) started peratin in.pints A^? i Pr!S!f "^""y is 60' 00 W l«t may easily be expanded t 80-100 thusand hi This brewery is experiencing serius diff^ies and s far is nt able t prduce beer f gd quality. The riginal. trubles were caused by pr water quality, but ther trubles have caused sme ^P rtant changes in the design f the equipment. It can hardly be expected that this brewery will sell mre than sme 20-25,000 hi in 1967 and, f curse, that it will incur serius financial lsses. he Dutch (Krnenburg) are experienced brewers and will sner r later get thrugh fmer^r a^2 U ^ theip SaleS BhUl* r6a h Sme 50-60,000 58. The Directr f the Primus brewery believes that in the Cng (Brazzaville) the demand fr imprted wine has decreased in favur f beer. Cng (Demcratic Republic) 59. The last six years have seriusly distrted the market situatin as well as the develpment f beverages industries. This has resulted in nh^rf,apacit? (innthe nrth-east and east) caused by substantial drp f demand and cnsequently f utput. T, it has, resulted in the inability t meet the demand in ther areas, due nt nly t the lack f capacity but als t shrtages in supply f materials (imprted and lcal) which causes xrregular runs at breweries and inability t use their full capacity thrughut the year. 60. These.ircumstanceshave heavily influenced the quality f beer, (eg. use f substitutes such as maize and mlasses in the manufacture and speeding up f.the manufacturing prcess beynd permitted limits in an endeavur t meet the unsatisfied demand). Mre beer an be sld at present in "active" areas. n the ther hand, the use f idle capacities in the^nrth-eastern part f the cuntry is impssible because f the lack f transprt facilities. I/Frm discussins with the Directr f the Primus brewery in Brazzaville.
B/CN.14/IKRA79 ' : ' 13 61. The market picture lcks dull "because f the heavy impact f inflatin. Nevertheless, the Directr-General f the Bralima Cmpany felt that in nrmal cnditins much mre beer culd be sld in "active" areas. 62. Mst f'the breweries in "active" areas have expanded their capacities in the last few years. The mst imprtant investment was made by the Brassekat (Jadtville) brewery which dubled its capadity (t 360,000 hi per annum). Mre investment will sn te necessary in mst breweries, except fr the nrth-eastern part f the cuntry. Hwever, prspects are rather dull due t the lack f freign exchange. Emplyment (1966) Cmpany Brassekat Bralima Unibra ft'ann *' Ttal 1,727 1,693 1,560 29 ut f whih expatriate 100 53 63> Malt - the Bralima Cmpany prduces malt in its Bukavu plant and has a capacity f 2,000 tns per annum. Due t the shrtage f barley this malt plant (erected in 1952) has never wrked at full capacity, and it is unprfitable t perate the plant with barley imprted frm verseas, because f transprt csts. Tday the plant wrks at abut ne-third f capacity, based entirely n barley imprted frm Rwanda. 64- The price based n experienced prime cst is cmpetitive with imprted malt in Bmcavuj but nt when transprted anywhere else (except perhaps fr Bujumbura). Nevertheless, this cnsideratin is purely theretical, because the plant was never able t meet the demand f its wn brewery in Bukarvu which always had t imprt substantial quantities f malt. 65- The reasn is the ^shrt supply f barley, the cultivatin f which is unprfitable due t lw yields (1,000 kg per hectare, instead f the annual 4-5 tns in Eurpe). These lw yields result in a high price fr barley. n the ther hand, the peratinal csts f the plant are high when cmpared with Eurpean cnditins, where the cling f air is nt necessary. 66. There is as yet n brewery in Gabn, but ne is nw under cnstructin Beer is imprted mstly frm Surpe but als frm the Cng (Brazzaville) and frm Camern. 1/ The Fann brewery belngs t a mining cmpany and wrks practically exclusively fr.cmpany emplyees and the lcal ppulatin in this re mte part f the cuntry. Technically, it is an artisanal plant with n develpment pssibilities. 2/ Frm discussins with the Directr f the Castel brewery under cnstruc tin in Libreville at the time the EGA missin visited.
$-«- E/CN.14/INR/17? Page 14 ' i.." ;: '. 67. The brewery will have an initial capacity f 50,000 hi f beer in i960., ' 68. The capacity..can be easily increased t 130,000 hi because nly the "uves" have t be added. This is expected t be ready befre 1970,... ' Sme general prblems 69.. Bttles, crwn crks, and labels are mstly imprted frm Eurpe. The prblem f bttles will be slved sn. Fur UD.SAC cuntries are willing t start bttle factries (Gabn, Camern, the Cng (Brazzaville) and the CAR) - this will be prbably decided during the UDEAC meeting in June 1,967..,... 70. Malt and hps (exept Bukavu - see abve) are imprted frm Surpe. tf dubt hps cannt be grwn in Africa, but the prblem f malt shuld be recnsidered. Chances f having gd African-grwn barley at reasn able prices are remte, but, technically, malt culd be manufactured lcally, The UDSAC brewers hwever think that the germinating- capacity f barley may.be lst during lengthy transprt in bad climatic cnditins; that the value added n this prductin is negligible; and that the higher cst f manufacture will effectively result in n freign exchange saving.
E/CN.14/INR/179 Page 15 ' j* ' ' iii, demt) and distributin f sft drihks, bs3r and ther alchlic Brinks '. [, 71. The three grups f "beverages will be analysed separately fr the fllwing reasns? i '- ; (a) The chemical and physical structure differs frm ne grup f drinks t anther. Iftiereas sft drinks are free frmjalchl, beer and ther alchlic drinks include different percentages f alchl;.. ' (b) Every grup requires different raw materials; \ (c) The price level f every grup is adapted t meet special demands. Vhereas the:price level f sft drinks crrespnds t a great extent t the. level f purchasing pwer f ithe masses in every natin, the price f beer fr the samd unit is dependent n the price level f ther alchlic drinks. (d) These drinks cater t.cnsumers f different ages. Generally the market fr aft drinks,is nt limited t a speial age f ppulatin, but, mst\cnsumers f beer and ther alchlic beverages are in the. age grups ver 15 years.. - 72. The demand picture fr beer in 1963 differed frm ne cuntry t anther. Chad and Gabn relied;fully n imprted beer. The shafre 0$ j dmestic demand f imprted beer t Camern and the Cng (Brazzaville) in 1963 was higher than the share f dmestic supply f this cmmdity (see Table 4). : 73. The dmestic supply f beer in 1963, in the whle sub-regin, 76 per cent f the ttal dmestic demand (see Table 4)» ; 74. Camern exprted mre beer than any ther cuntry'in the (Table 4). '. j 75. Cncerning sft drinks, the; Cng (Demcratic Republic) was: the:, nly exprter f Bft drinks in 1963-: The tw cuntries which relied^fully in 1963 n dmestic prductin f sft drinks were Camern and Gabn (see Table 5). As will be seen in Table 5» dmesti supply f sft drlnkja in the Central African sub-regin in 1963 met 88 per cent f dmestic demand. 76. Table 6 shws that the ttal supply f alchlic drinks was cvered in 1963 thrugh imprts. '._. 77. The biggest amunt f alchlic drinks was imprted ;in 1963 thrugh Camern, fllwed by the Cng (Brazzaville) then by Chad. The-Cng (Demcratic Republic) had the smallest amunt f imprted alchlic.. drinks (see Table 6). :
4 * Demand and distributin f beer in the Central African sub-regin US$1,000 Dmestic Dmestic Dmestic Dmestic '. Dmestic Dmestic" demand Imprt supply Exprt prductin demand Imprt supply Exprt prductin Chad Camern Gabn Central African Republic Cng (Dem. Rep.) Cng (Brazza.) Ttal 564 564 2,688 1,810 1,267 1,267 878 465 155 310 10,180 230 9,950 1,138 1,000 138 50 110,435 110,435 r175 l85f455 64F545 250,000 47f57 47,057 310 70,975 4,975 66f - 66,000 10P000^/ 2flllr830 3,840 2,107,990 1,010 2f109f00 67,702 38,302 29,400-29,400 16f32 5P026 11,276 347 11,623 3r133,864 745,019 2,388,845 65t555 2,454,400 a/ The ttal value including indirect taxes is estimated at US$14 millin.
and distributin f sft drills in the'central African sub-re Dmestic Dmestic Dmestic Dmestic Dmestic' " Dmestic demand Imprt supply Exprt Prductin demand Imprt supply Exprt prductin 171 169 Camern Sabn Central African Republic 92 90 193^ ' Cng (Brazza.) 300288 2 61.4 2.6 2 2 23 1 2 T 2 69,000 59,000 10,000 110,000-110,000 4,400 4,400 11,572 1,572 10,000 330,520 14,157 10,000 110,000 4,400 0 000 330,000 1Q'QQ 5tetal 770.4 673 97-4 2.6 100 539,650 65,310 474,340 60 474,400 n 1st
Table 6 : Demand and distributin f the ther alchlic drinks in the Central African sub-regin, 1963 fusti. hi Dmestic demand Imprt Dmestic supply- Exprt Dmestic prductin Dmestic demand Imprt Dmestic supply Exprt Chad Camern 715 1,920 715 1,920 109,744 109,744 976,676 976,676 Gabn 1,634 1,634 87,106 87,106 Central African - Republic....,..,739 Cng (Dem. Rep.) Cng (Brazza,)- -*-. 1,922 1,W~. 739 1,922 lr67 44,136 44,135 0.2 " "- 16,430 16,430,115,358 Ttal 8,600 8,600 0.2-1,349,450 1,349,450 000) Dmestic prductin (a sq,.3
e/cn.h/ink/179 page 19 78, The ttal dmestic demand fr all "beverages,.in the Central African sub^-regin'wasestimated at 5,022,964 hi. Sft drinks were 11 per cent f this demand, "beer accunted fr 62 per cent f the ttal demand fr "beverages, and ther alchlic drinks accunted fr 27 per cent, (see.- Table" 7). - Table 7 The dmestic demand fr all_grups f beverages in the - central African sub-regin and share f each grup in the ttal,1963 - US$1000 hi" hi per cent Sft drinks Be»r ther alchlic beverages 770 16,302 8,600 539,650 3,133,864 1,349,450 XI 62 27 Ttal 25,672 5,022,964 100 79* There is a higher tendeny t cnsume sft drinks in bth Nrth and Central Africa than in West Afria (Table 8). 80. The highest per capita beer cnsumptin is fund in the Central African sub-regin (Table 8). 81. The highest per capita cnsumptin f alchlic drinks ther than beer exists in Nrth Africa fllwed by the Central African sub-regin. The West African per capita cnsumptin f alhli drinks, ther than beer, is the lwest fr any grup f beverages in the sub-regins cnsid ered in Table 8. Table 8 Par capita cnsumptin f the different beverage grups in three sub-regins, 1963/L?64 ( itres) Nrth Vest Central Sft drinks Beer ther alchlic beverages 3.48 2.15 13.8 1.00 2.75 0.76 2.07 12.04 5.18 1 82. The share f every grup f drinks t ttal beverages differs frm ne sub-regin t anther (Table 9)» 83. As will be seen in Table 9 "the share f beer t ttal demand fr beverages is the highest in the three sub-regins.
Page 20 Ta?le S *.Share f every leverage grup t the ttal demand in NrthT West and Central Africa.1963/1pU Nrth West Central Beer ther alahlic."beverages -18 49 33 22 60 - -i8 11 62 "' i hi I.
E/CN.14/INR/179 Page 21 IV. CNSUMPTIN PATTERNS IN THE SUB-REGIN CMPARED WITH THSE "P SME SELECTED CUTRIBS 84. ^ As will "be seen in Table 10, the highest per capita cnsumptin f sft drinks, beer and ther alchlic drinks is in Camern. 85. Table 10- shws als a wide range between the lwer and upper per apita cnsumptin in beer - frm 3.39 litres t 14.51 litres - and ther alchlic drinks - frm 0,10 litres t 19.53 litres - in cmpar isn with sft drinks. Table 10 : Per capita cnsumptin f sft drinks, beer and ther alchlic drinks in the Central African ixhtries, 1963 Sft drinks Litres 1 ther alchlic Beer drinks Chad Camern Gabn CAR Cng (Dem. Rep. ) Cng (Brazzaville) 2.12 2.20 0.95 0.88 2.18 1.59 3.39 14-51 10.18 5.40 13.98 7.64 3' 37a/ 19.53^ 18.85s7 3.36 0.10, 13.03^ Ttal 2.07 12.04 5.18 &/ Mainly wine. 86. The fluctuatin in per capita cnsumptin illustrated in the previus table may be due t; (a) The different habits in beverage cnsumptin, as shwn in the fllwing examples*.... (i) The per capita cnsumptin f beer in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) is six times higher than that f sft drinks and 139 times larger than that f ther alchlic beverages? (ii) The Cng (Brazzaville) has a per capita cnsumptin f ther alchlic drinks which is 130 times higher than that f its neighbur, the Cng (Demcratic Republic). (b) Prbability f unrecrded trade flw f beverages thrugh the Central African cuntries.
B/C3J.14/INR/179 Page 22 () Different patterns.f beverage cnsumptin by rural and urban ppulatin. The study made \ by PA \J shws that the expenditure f beverages and.tbacc amunted t 4«8 per cent in families with an expenditure f 80-180 shillings per mnth and increased t 5*6 per cent in families with a ttal expenditure f lb-360 shillings per mnth. As fr palm wine, it is represented/by 1 per cent f the ttal expenditure in the first grup and declines t 0.5 per cent f the ttal expenditure in the secnd grup. "The expenditure n ther alchlic drinks is represented by 0.6 in the first grup and 2.2 per bent fr the secnd grup. "A few studies have been made f budgets in rural areas, particularly in areas where industrial crps have beeti intrduced. They-indicate that while the family incme has risen substantially, in many cases n imprve ment in fd cnsumptin and health can be bserved, in fact, a deteriratin f health and nutritinal status has smetimes been reprted, the greater part f the new incme being spent n useless r luxury articles r beverages. / 'The pattern f expenditure at different incme levels was analysed in Ghana - Kumasi survey. The percentage spent n fd did nt vary greatly at different incme levels. A main-reasn fr the stability f fd expenditure in the increasing expenditures n imprted fds and/r drink and tbacc in the higher incme grups. Similar results were btained in a survey f husehld budgets undertaken in Freetwn, Sierra Lene." 2/ j Per capita cnsumptin in the cuntries f the sub-regin cmparedwith that f sme selected cuntries 87. The per capita beer cnsumptin in the Central Afrian cuntries lies far belw the j>er capita beer cnsumptin f many f the selected cuntries shwn fr cmparisn in Table 11. 88. Excluding Prance, Italy and Hungary frm Table 11: t.^r per capita cnsumptin f ther alchlic drinks in the Central African cuntries des nt vary t much frm that fr the selected cuntries in Table 11 1/ PA Africa survey - Reprt n: The pssibilities f Afrian Rural Develpment in Halatin t Ecnmic and Scial Grwth, Hme, 1962, page 41. 2/ Ibid.
E/CH. 14/1510.79 Page 23 Table 11 : Per apita cnsumptin f beer and wine in selected cuntries Litres Beer Wine 1957 1957 Belgium. 113>8 Denmark 64.2 2.8 Finland 7-1 2.6 Prance 34-4 112.3 Italy 3,8 83-9 Germany (Fe4, Rep.) 81.8 9.8 Netherlands 25.0. 1.5 Nrway Austria 64.8 17.0 Sweden 28.1 2.6 Switzerland 53.3.. United States f America 60.7 3.4 United Kingdm 80.1. 1.3 Hungary 31.4 2^" East Germany 76.6 1.8 Pland. 20.1...,3*6 Czechslvakia 92.7. 7*5 Surce : Develpment Cefficients fr Freign Ecnmy (in Czechslvakia. Prague, 1962. ^ 2
3/CN.14/INR/179 Page 24 V. FCJ1UE3 PRSPECTS P BSViiRAGi ITJSTRISS IN TI StfB-R3GIt,N 89» The trend f beverage cnsumptin shws the dminance f "beer cnsumptin in the Central African sub-reglil. As stated" previusly', all diretrs f breweries agree that in the sub-regin the cnsumptin f sft drinks apprximates 20 per cent (by Vlume) in relatin t beer and that this prprtin tends t decrease in favur f beer, Whereas the beer demand seems't grw fast, the increase f sft drinks cn&imptin is lagging cnsiderably behind. Perhaps the relatively slight difference in prie between beer and sft drinks is ne f the main reasns, fr the shift t higher beer cnsumptin. ' ' 90. Generally all beer capacities in the cuntries f the sub-regin are nt fully utilized. Despite this, there are plans fr expansin f breweries in the sub-regin. In Camern, the nly existing brewery is nw being expanded and will have a apacity f 700,000 hi by the beginning f 1968. New breweries are als planned in Camern, s that sme 950,000 hi will be prduced t meet the demand in 1970. Beer prductin capacity in the Central African Republic will reach sme 180,000 hi in 1970. Althugh Chad des nt utilize all beer capacities (60 per cent are utilized), the five-year plan envisages an expansin f the apacity t reach 45>0 hi by 1970. 91* The demand fr beer is steadily increasing in the Cng (Brazzaville). The capacity f the main brewery in Brazzaville has been expanded recently t 100,000 hi and further expansin-by 1969 will be necessary (t 130,000 hi). The ttal apacity in 1970 will reach apprximately 230,000 hi. 92. The ttal capacities f breweries in the Cng (Demcratic Republic) were estimated at 2,921,200 hi in 1967 and the prductin f beer in 1966 reached 2,240,300 hi. The breweries in Stanleyville, Kisangani and Paulis are wrking belw capacity* The increased demand fr beer thrugh 1970 can easily be cvered by utilizatin f idle capacities. 93. The new brewery in Gabn is expected t sell its first prductin in 1968. The capacity can easily reach 100,000 hi by 1970. 94* The abve fats lead t the cnclusin that mst f the breweries are well aware f the grwing demand and are passing a dynamic expansinist plicy in respect f cntinuus expansin f capacities. Future demand fr beverages in the Central African sub-regin 95* A clear analysis f the different methds which facilitate measure ment f the size f future demand is neessary. Fr the expected demand, and its great imprtance as reflected in its cnnexins with ther ecnmic expectatins (such as size f investment, amrtisatin f the investments, freign trade plicies, etc), an explicit frecast is undubtedly required.
e/cjj.14/inh/179 Pa e 25 96. This paper deals with three different prcedures which might be applied fr frecasting future demand. Befre giving cmputatins f the efficiency f each prcedure, all will be analysed t determine which ne culd be use fully applied. 97* Until sufficient data fr frecasting the demand are available, we can qualify and chse the mst reliable methd applicable in the circumstances. 98. There are a variety f cmplex prblems invlved in the calculatin and interpretatin f elasticity cefficients fr beverages. First and fremst is the fact that variatins in fd expenditure and cnsumptin, including drinks, are assciated nt nly with variatins in incme, but als witi* variatins in family size and cmpsitin and with fd r drinks preference patterns. Mrever, cmparisn f elasticity wrked ut frm different family budget surveys is risky because f the lack f parallelism in the cncepts and prcedures used, 99- ther factrs, such as the defect f mving frm rural circumstances t urban envirnment, the length f urban residence, the strength f influences mdifying the traditinal attitudes, and the degree f familiarity with the different'kinds f drinks, are all likely t be f cnsiderable imprtance. 100. Fr the abve reasns cautin shuld be exercised in drawing cnclusins frm the incme elasticity estimates. Mrever, the facts given\abve emphasize the necessity fr clse attentin in planning fr future budget, surveys First prcedure; applying ppulatin rates f grwth. 101. The ttal demand f all beverages fr the whle sub-regin as Table 12 shws is 5.0, 5-8 and 7-2 millin hi in the years 1963, 1970 and I98,. respectively. 102. The sub-reginal demand fr beer in I963 as well as 1970 and I98 exceeds that f sft drinks and ther alchlic drinks tgether. 103* Different factrs might affect the validity f this prcedure- Recalling the factrs (a), (b) and (c) mentined in Chapter IV, the figures f demand in.table 12 shuld be handled with care.' In this respect, it is necessary t analyse every factr separately. Unless a change in habits f beverage cnsumptin is anticipated, factr (a) might nt be changeable t the extent. that a cmplete upset, f beverage cnsumptin patterns in the different cuntries culd be expected. 104- As fr factr (b), any increase f unre-crded trade flw which might lead t an increase f beverage cnsumptin in the sub-regin may nt be expected. The reasn fr this is that the develping cuntries, including the Central African cuntries, are trying t use every pssibility t btain a favurable balance f payments- thrugh cntrlled freign trade and thrugh bilateral and multilateral ecnmic agreements*
E/CN.14/INR/179 Page 26 105* Industrializatin, prgrammes and urbanizatin plicies can change the patterns f cnsumptin faster than any ther factr, thus factr (c) can be assumed t be the ne mst influencing the demand picture. Expenditure n beverages and tbacc is related t the size f ttal expenditure. As a shifting t higher quality brands f beverages with special reference t imprted nes is recgnized in higher incme grups (see Chapter IV), The abve facts reflected thrugh factr (c) might lead t the analysis f the secnd prcedure. Secnd prcedure: applying the GDP rates f grwth. 10iS. As will be seen in Table 13, the ttal demand' fr all beverages in the sub-regin is 5.0, 7.5 and 13.5 millin hi in the years 1963, 1970 and 1980, respectively. It is als ntable by this prcedure that the estimated demand fr every grup f beverages is higher than that btained.by the/first ' prcedure. In fact, this prcedure is nt cnsidered as technically applicable as the firsty Bince the change f fd and beverage cnsumptin pattern is nt related t incme changes, but als t ther, factrs such as family size and structure, etc. 107. Hecalling Table 11, we can find a very clear example which might supprt the previus cncept. In that table, althugh the per capita incme f mst f the cuntries included in the table is cnsidered t be high cmpared with the develping cuntries, a wide range f per capita cnsumptin pattern f beer and wine is t be nted. ~" 108. As Table 11 shws, the per capita cnsumptin f beer in the United States f America (60.7 litres) in 1957» where the per capita incme was higher than in Belgium, was-much less than its cunterpart "in Belgium (113.8 litres) in the same year. The er_cap_ita wine cnsumptin in Italy (83.9 litres in 1957) was much higher than that in the Federal Republic f Germany (9.8 litres in the same year), where the per capita incme was higher than Italy's.. «109. The abve facts might invalidate the applicability f the secnd prcedure fr demand prjectins* 110. As explained in paragraph 98, care shuld be taken by interpretatin and calculatin f elasticity measures fr frecasting the demand fr beverages. An attempt was made, hwever, t apply these measures fr frecasting the demand n beverages. Separate elasticity figures fr beverages as a grup are difficult t btain. In many cases where elasticity studies have been.made, they presented fd, beverages and tbacc tgether as a grup f cmmdities. Using sme cnsumptin expenditure.patterns, a unifrm elasti city measure fr alchlic beverages (including beer) is estimated t be I.3. As fr sft drinks, the elasticity is 1.0,
i ;c jcn U > 83 -P N IrH N V C N J C CvJ M" C r»-, r-< CM J J rh rh V C I"'. LfN C J C 8 C \ C C N in cf V V J rh N J LfN J J V E V L C <->. in q r3 V "J± c C J = in s± IT\ C j r J J V C C CVJ C LfN J s CVj C C*" V* ch 00 CVJ CM J '.cpl r-h Cm CVJ J N C c" Cn c" v N r J v C LTN m GN v C " N V c" J V v J J E/CN.14/IHR/179 Page 27 ' a td P CD fj 3 ra
E/GN.14/INR/179 Pa^e 29 111. Applying the elasticity ''measures fr the three grups f [beverages we cme t the fllwing cnclusins: (a) The ttal sub-fregiqnal demand fr all beverages is %0f ^»7 and 15.3 millin hi in=the years 19&3, 1970 and. I98 respectively (see Table la-h \ '. 1 (b) The sub-regirial figures fr sft drinksj btained by this prcedure are larger than thcjse btained by applying ppulatin rate f grwth and smaller than thje figures btained by applying the GDP rates f grwth (see Table 3J5);! ' (c) The ttal figure f; demand fr beer and fr ther alchlic drinks in the whle s,ub-rejgipn btained by applying the secnd prcedure (GDP rate f grwth) lies between the figures btained by the first and third prcedure; (Table 15)- : 112. We have cnsidered,in thje previus paragraphs; three different prcedures fr measuring the future; demabd fr the three grups f beverages and nw there arises the difficulty qf chsing the mst apprpriate prcedure, 113- Since this paper is; nt -dealing with purely ecnmic criteria which might lead t accuracy in applying the mst apprpriate methd; fr fre casting the demand, it is cnsidered advisable t cmpare the results btained "by the three prcedures With jthedsmand, prjectins available in the plan dcuments f the cuntries f) the sub-regin. ; ' i : : r 114* It is the aim f all develping cuntries t substitute as much f imprted cnsumer gds,; including beverages, with; lcal prduptin whenever lcal capacities and pssibilities are able t fulfil the demand* f.the Central African imprts f sft drinks in 19&3 cnstituted1 12 per cent* f the ttal dmestic demand. These icuntries imprted 24 per cent f their requirements f beer in that year. Assuming that the plans fri expansin f capacities fr sft drinks and beer; will; cver mst f the dmestic demand, and cmpar ing the planned capacities iri- 1970 fr the cuntries f the sub-regin with the prjected demand in that year, we cme t the fllwing cnclusins: (a) Table 16 shws the capacities frm 1967 thrugh 1970! in ihe cuntries f the :-sujb-regin as given t the<eca field missin. Ttal capacity; in the sub-regin in 1970 is assumed $0 reach 4 555 hi lf beejr. This figure is very clse t the estimated > a t» I 4 a en 3
id prjectin fr beverages in 1970 and 1980 in the Central African sub-regin applying elasticity measures Rates3 f demand increase Sft D. Ale. D. 1963 Sft d ri nlcs 1970 1980 Beer 1963 1970 1980 1963 ther alchlic drinks 1970 1980 Ttal 1963 beverages 1970 1980 7.0 8-7 69000 110800 21800 110400 198000 456000 109700 196700 453000 289100 505500 1127000 6.0 7.2 110000 165400 296200 726000 1181000 2367000 977000 1589000 3185000 1813000 2935400 5848200 4-5 5.6 4400 6000 10700 47000 68800 118600 87 1274Q ' 219700 138400 202200 349000 7.0 5-4 8.4 6.3 11600 330500 18600 477600 [ 36600 80/8000 71000 1249 279900 2112000 3239400 5968000 44000 16000 77400 24500 173400 45000 166800 24585 220900 3741500 4899 6821000 6.0 7.2 14100 21200 37960 68000 110600 221700 115300 187600 376000 197400 319400 635660 539600 799600 1407460 3134400 4922700 9411200 1349000 2202600 4452100 523 7724900 15270760 3 -F*
1!able 15 i Cmparisn f demand prjectins f sft drinks^ beer.and ther alchlic drinks fr the y»ara 1970 and 1980 Sft 1970 drinks 1980 1970 Beer 1980 ther 1970 alchlic drinks 1980 (hi) Ttal beverages 1970 1980 First prcedure 625,200 772,200 3,646,400 4,528,600 1,540,000 1,861,900 5,811,600 7,162,700 Secnd prcedure 800,200 1,455,900 4,607,640 8,302,500 2,043,100 3,701,700 7,450,940 13,460,100 Third prcedure 799*600 1,407,460 4,922,700 9,411,20012,202,600 4,452,100 7,724,900 15,270,76 WH
Page 32 115* These results indicate the desirability f using the secnd prcedure fr evaluating the demand till i98.fi It wuld "be advisable t test the three prcedures when frecasting the; demand after the year I98, since the secnd apprach des nt take int accunt the. different.elements influenc ing the demand. i ' ; :V 116 The demand prjectins based n the secnd prcedure fr the sub-regin as a whle are given belw:,! :" ; "s Sft drinks 800,,200 (hi). :,,. li IS 2,455,900 Beer 4,607,,640 1 1,302,500 ther alchlic drinks 2,043,,100 ; 3],701,700 Ttal 7.45Q,,940 13,,460,100 Table 16 and : Prductin f sft sft_drinks prductin in Prductin 1966 beer sft drinks * 4 drinks and beer, 1966-1Capacities fr beer tjie^uwegiqn, 23 Jr?SL Capacities f beer 1968 : 1970 1967 (hi) Capacities 1967 f ^f"^ drinks 1968 1970 Chad 16 22 i 45 _ 30 Camern 465 220 500 700 ; 950 260 Gabn CAR - 110.15 30 50 - - - 150 50 180 ; 40 50 50 Cng (Dem. Rep, ) 2,240 475 2,921 - ; 3,000 ; - Cng (Brazza.) - 50 ~ i 230 1 Ttal 2,831 812 3,471 700 4,555 350 130
/ Page 33 VI. CHEATIW F ADDITINAL BEVERAGE MANUFACTURING CAPACITIES III THE SUB-REGIN 117. The previus chapter dealt with the estimatin f demand fr the three grups f beverages. Additinal capacities required t meet the bulk f sub-reginal demand thrugh lcal prductin will be indicated in this chapter.,. 118. As will be seen in Table 17, there are a variety f additinal demands (1970-1980) fr the different beverages in the cuntries f the BUb^regin. In sft drinks and beer, the Cng (Demcratic Republic) ranks first. As fr ther alchlic drinks, the Camern leads with 70 per cent. 119. The table shws als the share f every beverage grup in the ttal additinal demand (1970-1980). 120. Befre estimating the number f units required t cver the additinal demand expected t be satisfied by lcal prductin, it is imprtant t state that this paper can deal nly with sft drinks and beer. There, is a lack f figures n investment patterns fr units cncerned with the prduc tin f alchlic drinks ther than beer.. 121. T determine the size f investment required fr units prducing sft drinks and beer, attempts have been made t analyze varius patterns fr factries prducing these dririks. 122. Tw type-units ne small (investment utlays arund US$100>,000) and ne large (investment utlays arund US$700,000) have been selected fr cnsidera tin.! / 123. As can be seen frm Tables 17 and 18, the number f units5required frm the perid I97-I98 can be distributed in tw phases, the first phase 1970-1975 and the secnd phased 1975-1980; i.e. in Chad, the number f units required till 1980 will be tw big units and ne f these units shuld begin perating between 1970 r 1980! and the secnd by I98. The same btains fr Camern... ; 124. Nt taking int cnsideratin the pssibility f utilizing the;, sft drink capacity existing in Gabn in mre than ne shift, an additinal small unit can be added by 1975- This unit can as well be utilized t fulfil the demand till I98. ;..' '. 125. Frm the tw units required by 1980, in the Central African Republic, ne unit can be set up t meet the demand during the perid 1970-1975. 126. The first unit - small - can be set up in the Cng (Brazzaville) t meet the demand thrugh 1975 and a secnd thrugh I98..
Table 17 : Capacities required 1970-1980-share f beverage grup in every cuntry.cuntry in the ttal f?ups and the share f eve] Demand 1970 Demand 1980 ther, Sft ther drinks beer alchlic. drinks beer alchlic Capacities required 1970-1980 Sft drinks beer Share fr each puntry t_ - ther Sft ther alchlic drinks beer alchlic Chad Camern Gabn CAR 110800 177300 I654 1091600 66C 70700 186c;) 114000 Cng (Dem. Rep.) 477600 3051840 Cng (Brazza.) 21200 102200 176200 I469 130800 70700 23000 173400 218000 296200 11800 36600 855300 38000 348900 1954800 126600 224300 5465200 183700-346700 2630000 234200 139100 41200 310500 107200 171600 130800 863200 5200 55900 18000 103300 377700 2413360 16800 80500 170500 1161000 103400 68400 18200 137100 16 19 1 3 59 2 4 24 1 3 65 '3 10 70 6 4 1 9 Ttal 800200 46764.2043100 1455900 8325 3701700 655700 369486 I6586 100 100 100
Chad Camern Gabn CAR Cng (Dem* Rep*) Cng (Brazza.) Ttal Share demand Sft drinks 23 6 3 9 13 7 Table 17 (cnt'd) f beverage cuntrywise ther Beer alchlic Sft drinks Demand Beer 1975 ther alchlic 38 38 155430 2487 247200 40 54 221300 1468 19658 34. ea.8800. 94600... 175000 55 36 26100 159900 99200 86 1 621200 3969500 29900 34 59 28400 13.6800 232000 tjhits 1970 Sft Big recruired 1980 drinks Small Units recruired 1970 1980 Beer Big Small - -"1 _ 2. 17 1 26 am 9 9 H 3
Table 18 : Estimated additinal capacity required by 1970-1975 and 1975-1980^ number f units required till 1975 Capacities required Capacities required. Number f units 1970-1975 1975-1980 required till 1975 (hi) Sft drinks Beer ther alchlic Sft drinks Beer ther alchlic Sft Big drinks Beer small Big Chad 44630 71400 71000 62570 100200 99500 1 _ 1 Camern 56 369200 496800 748 494000 664200 1-3 Gabn = 220^ -2-3900 44200-3000- 32000 59200 ' * " -X _... CAR 7500 45900 28500 10500 57400 39900-1 - Cng (Bern. Rep.) 143600 917660 6900 234100 1495700 11300" 2-8 Cng (Brazza.) 7200 34600 586 9600 45900 785-1 1 Ttal 13 small - 1 " 1 - -
Page 37 ; if curse, in the cuntries where the1prjected ap city'exceeds 72,000 hectlitres annually,; factries f bth sizes an be cnsidered. 128. Fr beer prductin, W l/ sizes f plants have been cnsidered-, the first (medium size) has a capacity f 35,000-50,000 hectlitres and the secnd (large) has a capacity f 50,000 hectlitres and an increase its capacity t 100,000-150,000 hetlitres. The utput calculatins are based n 300 wrking days and ne shift f- eight hurs per day. 129. Twenty-six large beer units and three medium-sized waits are required during the perid 1970-1980 fr the whle sub-regin. Fr the additinal apacity required thrugh 1975, thirteen large units and tw medium-sized units are required (see Tables 17 and 18). ' 130» As will be seen in Table 19, the ttal est f additinal pacities required fr sft drinks by 1980 fr the whle sub-regin amunts t US$6,800,000, f whih; US$3,500,000 is fr the Cng (flempratic Republic). The cflt required fr the Whle sub-regin thrugh 1975 fr sft drinks is US#3,lb,000, f whih US$1,400,000 is fr the Cng (Demcratic fiepubli). 131* The additinal apacities fr beer prductin require!a cnsiderably higber amunt f investments* T 1975 this requirement is estimated ajt US$42,J606,d fr the whle sub-regibn and t 1980 the ttal investment fr this industry an reah US$82,863,000. - -. ; jt 132. These investment figures culd be reduced by full utilizatin;f the existing capacities and by wrking mre than ne shift per day. As explained in the! previus paragraph^ the prjectin f;new additinal capacities was built t>n the assumptin that all capacities existing in 1970 will tje fully utilized and that the factries will wrk ne eight-hur shift daily.,. 133. I* is estimated that; sme 1,640 mre laburers can be engaged in sft drinks; prductin by 1975;and 1,980 laburers in the perid 1975-1960, sj ^ that the tial labur required fr the additinal capacities t 1980 will: be 3,620 laburers. i ;. 134» Fr beer prductin the number f laburers required t 1975 i* estimate at 2,900 and fr the perid 1975-1980 sme 2,750 additinal laburers u^d be engaged in this industry* :. ; 135- As stated previusly-an estimate f required investments fr additinal capacities f ther alchlic drinks annt be btained, tut the fllwing example can thrw sme light n capacity and cst required fr this -industry* In this respect, it is bserved that in Sierra Lene, the factry which was built in 1963 cst US$l68,k)0 fr;a apaity f 9,000 hetlitres f whisky, gin and shnapps annually, n this basis the number f additinal units : which mi ht be required depends upn imprt pliy fr this; grup fc beverage fr every cuntry and an be estimated at 184 units fr the'whle sub-regin. 1/ The brewery whih was built in Chad in 1964 at.a cst fipr. CFA" 580 i- millin (US$2,349,000) has a apaity f 35,000-60,000 hetlitres annually; the brewery in Gabn;has a apaity f 50,000 hectlitres and can reach 100,000-150,000 feetlitres annually, "and pst Fr.^CFA 720 millin (US$2,916,000).; ' r :