On dating Proto-Indoeuropean via Bayesian phylogenetic inference Igor Yanovich 1, Armin Buch, Johannes Dellert, Marisa Köllner, Fabrício Marcel Ferraz Gerardi, Roland Mühlenbernd, Johannes Wahle and Gerhard Jäger 2 Institute of Linguistics, Tübingen University 1 Carnegie Mellon 2 Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study MPI for the Science of Human History, Jena October 13, 2015 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 1 / 38
Phylogenetic age constraints Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 2 / 38
Bouckaert et al: based (mostly) on written record upper and lower limit: confined to last two millenia only lower limit: go up to last four millenia this study derive upper and lower limits from archaeological findings Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 3 / 38
Proto-Indo-Iranian Indo-Iranian Identification of Proto-II with Andronovo culture (Kuz ima 2007) accepted by (some) proponents both of Anatolian and of Steppe theory time constraint: 1900 1600 BCE Following the dissolution of the Balkan PIE linguistic area it seems likely that there was some further and significant punctuation episode in the Pontic steppe area which motivated the eastern dispersal of early Indo-Iranian into areas where the Early Steppe form of (Proto) IE had already been spoken for some time. Early Indo-Iranian is often correlated with the Andronovo culture of the Eurasian steppes, seen after 2000 BC (Kuzmina 1994) Renfrew 1999 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 4 / 38
The Tocharian split Tocharian Steppe theory (Anthony): migration from the steppe towards the Altai mountain ca. 3300 3000 BCE Anatolian theory (Renfrew 1999): eastward migration from the Balkans into the steppes archaeological evidence for intense cultural exchange between steppes and the Balkans by the end of the 4th millenium if identified with Tocharian split, this also gives a time constraint ca. 3300 3000 BCE Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 5 / 38
Phylogenetic age constraints Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 6 / 38
Replication of Bouckaert et al 175 150 125 100 Frequency 75 50 25 0 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 treemodel.rootheight mean: 7685 BP; 95% HDI: 6053 9545 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 7 / 38
Adding Indo-Iranian constraint 175 150 125 100 Frequency 75 50 25 0 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 treemodel.rootheight mean: 7162 BP; 95% HDI: 5525 8931 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 8 / 38
Adding Tocharian constraint 200 175 150 125 Frequency 100 75 50 25 0 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 treemodel.rootheight mean: 7295 BP; 95% HDI: 5316 8982 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 9 / 38
Adding both constraints 250 200 150 Frequency 100 50 0 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 treemodel.rootheight mean: 7139 BP; 95% HDI: 5782 8622 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 10 / 38
Adding both constraints Luvian Hittite Lycian Avestan Old_ Vedic_Sanskrit Oscan Umbrian Latin Ancient_Greek Iron_ Digor_ Afghan _List Kurdish Baluchi Romani Singhalese _List Spanish Portuguese_ST Sardinian_L Sardinian_C Sardinian_N Romanian_List Vlach Breton_ST Breton_SE Breton_List Welsh_N Welsh_C Irish_A Scots_Gaelic Old_Irish Gothic Old_English English_ST Old_High_ Luxembourgish _ST Flemish Dutch_List Old_Norse Icelandic_ST Riksmal Danish _VL _Up _List Old_Church_Slavonic Russian Czech Czech_E Lusatian_L Lusatian_U Lithuanian_ST Old_Prussian Armenian_List Armenian_Mod Classical_Armenian Albanian_Top Albanian_G Albanian_K Albanian_C Greek_ML Greek_Mod Tocharian_B Tocharian_A Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 11 / 38
Summary 10000 9000 treemodel.rootheight 8000 7000 6000 5000 IE2011_RelaxedCovarion_AllSingletonsGeo.logtreeModel.rootHeight IE2011_InIr.logtreeModel.rootHeight IE2011_Tocharian.logtreeModel.rootHeight IE2011_InIr_Tocharian.logtreeModel.rootHeight Bayes factor Steppe Theory vs. Anatolian Theory goes up from 1:1 to 4:1 Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 12 / 38
And now for something completely different... Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 13 / 38
Borrowings in IELex general policy: loanwords are manually identified and marked as such usually excluded in phylogenetic analyses typical example: mountain (borrowed into English from ) sometimes decision is controversial: Russian sobaka dog is assigned to the same cognate class as Hund, but there is a debate in the literature whether it is an Iranian or a Turkic loan (it is certainly not inherited) deep borrowings might not be recognizable as such Impact on phylogenetic inference? Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 14 / 38
In an ideal phylogeny, each cognate class should emerge exactly once (it might get lost several times). Dollo-model of character evolution parallel changes 0 1 possibly indicative for borrowing There might be other reasons, such as parallel semantic change wrong phylogeny incomplete sampling of synonyms... this talk: Maximum likelihood character state reconstruction manual identification of parallel changes Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 15 / 38
dog:a Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 16 / 38
dog:b Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 17 / 38
dog:d Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 18 / 38
dog:e Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 19 / 38
dog:f Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 20 / 38
dog:g Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Old Irish Old English Old High Old Gutnish Old Old Norse Old Old Welsh Old Church Slavonic Old Prussian Armenian Mod Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Icelandic St Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Vlach Dolomite o Brazilian Lithuanian O P P P Russian P P P Czech Czech E Ashkun Digor Shughni Baluchi Kurdish Singhalese Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 21 / 38
mouth:a Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 22 / 38
mouth:b Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 23 / 38
mouth:c Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 24 / 38
no borrowing: reflexes with different meanings in other branches mouth:d Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 25 / 38
mouth:e Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 26 / 38
mouth:f Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 27 / 38
candidate for borrowing from Romance into Celtic mouth:g Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 28 / 38
mouth:h Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 29 / 38
mouth:i Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 30 / 38
mouth:j Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 31 / 38
mouth:k Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 32 / 38
mouth:l Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 33 / 38
mouth:m Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 34 / 38
mouth:p Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 35 / 38
mouth:q Hittite Luvian Vedic Sanskrit Ancient Greek Avestan Latin Gothic Classical Armenian Armenian Mod Old Old High English English Afrikaans Flemish Standard Munich Old Icelandic St Old Norse Stavangersk Danish Gutnish Lau Up Old Irish Old Old Breton Vlach Dolomite o Spanish Brazilian Old Prussian Lithuanian O Old Church Slavonic P P P Russian P P P Czech Ashkun Digor Shughni Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 36 / 38
in total 109 out of 2,496 (non-trivial) characters where manually identified as probable loans Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using the constraints from Bouckaert et al., with full and with cleaned data set using all 150 varieties from IELex using different software and tree prior (BayesPhylogeny, Yule tree prior) Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 37 / 38
mean = 6440 mean = 6460 95% HDI 5500 7510 5000 6000 7000 8000 full dataset 95% HDI 5440 7520 5000 6000 7000 8000 reduced dataset Jäger, Yanovich et al. (Tü) On phylogenetic dates MPI Jena 38 / 38