That Was Fun Now What? Economy in 2017 TASSCC - Austin Chris Kuehl Managing Director Armada Corporate Intelligence Economic Analyst MOCPA, FMA, NACM Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis December 6, 2016
Why We Love Meteorologists 2 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Reality Check Things that would happen regardless of who won Rates Dollar Inflation Things that GOP victory brought forward Infrastructure Tax reform Regulatory reform Trade issues Things where everything has to work out just right 3 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Trump Winners Energy Sector Keystone pipeline will be built Investment in nuclear power likely More off-shore drilling Climate change is no longer an issue return to coal Merger and Acquisition activity but only some Some domestic manufacturing Infrastructure sector Roads and bridges New airports and seaports Major question is how to pay for it Tax Reform Lower taxes on business and wealthy More user fees 4 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Trump Losers Trade and Companies involved in either import or export Health care sector at least for a while Agriculture Immigrant dependent sectors High tech, engineering and medical Agriculture Construction Food service Some manufacturing those that depend on imported goods and commodities Alternative energy 5 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Global Reaction China has started their own version of the TPP and many have already signed on Russia is interpreting this as the beginning of an uninvolved US and think that sanctions over Ukraine will be lifted and that Syria is their issue now. Populists all over the world are rallying in their own polls Marine Le Pen and the National Front Alternative for Germany Japanese nationalists Emerging markets in dead panic currencies are falling fast and investment is drying up Saudi Arabia very worried Israel very pleased Canada and Mexico deeply concerne about immigration talk and NAFTA 6 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
We Are BIG and that can be an Issue 7 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
The Other Top Five Economies 8 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Changing Demographics 9 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
How is a Successful Economy Measured? There is no one answer to this it depends on what is important to the individual. These are the markers most often used. GDP growth Jobless rate plus all those job related statistics such as workforce participation, Inflation rate Industrial production, durable goods orders, capacity utilization and other sector measures PMI and CMI data Housing data starts, existing home sales, cost of a house, rental rates Exports and imports Wage rates and growth level of household wealth 10 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Unemployment Shifts 11 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Workforce Participation 12 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
County Level Dependence 13 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Still Above 50 14 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
CMI Reversing Trend 15 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com August 30, 2016
Labor Force Solutions? 16 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
They Are Here and They Are Coming 17 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
More Confident in the Future 18 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Desire for Feedback 19 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Lots of Debt 20 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
With Crummier Jobs 21 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Not Ready to Leave the Nest 22 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
23 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Trends to Worry About Workforce participation lowest levels since the 1970s. Right now the level is 62.8. The highest level was 67.30 and the lowest was 58.10. Declines have been steady since the recession Labor productivity falling for the last three years and at levels not seen in the last decade Protectionism may be a short lived political phenomenon but both parties pushing it. TPP and Nafta in trouble. US depends on exports for 14% of GDP Japan is 14.7% dependent on exports. Most export heavy nation is Germany at 52% Skill gap too few people with the skills needed. Seven million available jobs and nine million without work. Acute in manufacturing, construction and transportation Watch out for higher interest rates, inflation and the strengthening of the dollar 24 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
Just Could Not Resist 25 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016
You KNOW you Want More!!! Contact Information chris.kuehl@armadaci.com Black Owl Report Economic trends Global economics Geopolitics Security Logistics FREE Trial to BOR one solid month (12 issues) plus Falcon Report, NESE, GESE 26 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com December 6, 2016