Beef, Veal and Lamb Report May 5, 2016 Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef output last week rose.3% and was 6.3% larger than the same week last year. Strong beef packer margins are fueling the increase in production. Cattle slaughter last week was the biggest in 23 months. Even lower cattle prices are anticipated in the coming months which should fuel solid year over year increases in beef output. The USDA is projecting summer beef output to be 5.4% more than 2015. Beef demand has been good with spot shipments during the last four weeks averaging 8% above the prior year. However, the surge in production has weighed heavy on the beef markets. Still, several beef markets are likely to find support soon, as the grilling season expands. Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Lower Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Lower Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Higher 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Lower 121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 180 1x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Lower 193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 65% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Decreasing Good Lower Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.americanrestaurantassociation.com- 941-379--2228
Grains 2016-17 corn and soybean crop planting is progressing. As of May 1 st, 45% of the corn crop had been sowed which is well ahead of norm. Still, the weather during the July through September period will be much more important to the crops. Corn and soybean prices could move lower in the short run. Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Higher Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Good Lower Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Good Higher Corn, bushel Decreasing Good Higher Crude Corn Oil, lb Decreasing Good Higher High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Good Higher Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Lower Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Steady Good Lower HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Decreasing Good Same Black Beans, lb Increasing Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Lower
Dairy The cheese markets have continued to trade at relatively engaging levels for buyers during the last few weeks. Class IV milk futures are averaging near 3% above class III which could siphon some milk out of cheese production. Thus, the longer term downside price risk in the cheese markets from here is believed to be minimal. Still, seasonal charts suggest that cheese prices should remain relatively weak in the near term. The butter market remains historically elevated. For butter prices to fall notably lower from here, it will likely take solid appreciating in nonfat dry milk prices. Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Steady Good Higher Butter (CME) Decreasing Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Lower Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Higher Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower
Pork Pork production last week declined 4.5% and was.4% less than last year. Average daily pork output during the first quarter of this year was down slightly from the previous year. However, the USDA is projecting total spring and summer pork production to be nearly 2% bigger than 2015. This should temper any seasonal pork price increases. Pork belly prices have softened in recent weeks. However, history suggests that higher pork belly prices could be forthcoming. Last year the pork belly cutout rose 12% during the next two weeks. Live Hogs Increasing Ample Lower Sow Increasing Ample Higher Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Decreasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Increasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Good Higher Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Higher Picnic, untrmd Increasing Good Higher SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher
Poultry Chicken production for the week ending April 23 rd rose 1.9% and was 4.5% better than the same week a year ago. Year to date chicken output is tracking 3.1% above 2015. Despite this, the chicken breast markets have rallied as of late. The ARA Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Index has risen 20% during the last two months. However, this index is still at its least expensive level for early May in 11 years. Further chicken breast price increases are likely in the coming weeks as both wholesale and retail are presenting historical value. The chicken leg quarter markets continue to rise as well as export demand recovers. Chicken leg quarter prices usually peak in mid-may however it may be late summer before leg quarters top this year. Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Increasing Good Same Wings (whole) Decreasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Decreasing Good Higher Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher Breast, Bone In Increasing Good Lower Breast, Boneless Skinless Increasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (random) Increasing Good Higher Tenderloin (sized) Increasing Good Lower Legs (whole) Increasing Good Lower Leg Quarters Increasing Good Lower Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Good Lower Thighs, Boneless Decreasing Good Lower Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Short Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Short Lower Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Short Higher
Seafood Low fuel prices are encouraging solid domestic shrimp landings despite low shrimp prices. March Gulf of Mexico shrimp landings were 110% larger than last year and the biggest since at least 2012. 2016 through March shrimp landings were the most in four years. Still, a lower value U.S. dollar signals that the greater risk in shrimp prices is to the upside. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Increasing Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Increasing Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Good Lower Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Steady Good Higher Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Steady Good Lower
Paper and Plastic Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Lower Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Decreasing Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Increasing Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Mar-16 Feb-16 Jan-16 Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Increasing Dairy Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Pork Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Increasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Various Markets The Brazilian chief coffee harvest is underway which usually pressures coffee prices lower. The Arabica coffee market June average has fallen from May in each of the last five years by an average of 7.7%. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Lower Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Lower Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower
Produce The tomato markets have continued to trade at relatively engaging levels for buyers during the last week with the large mature green market falling to its lowest level in nearly a year. This is due in part to improving supplies out of Florida where shipments rose 33% last week. Further, imports from Mexico last week were 31% better than the same week in 2015. Fairly attractive tomato prices are anticipated to endure during the next few weeks. Shortened production out of the Salinas California area is bringing support to the lettuce markets. Lettuce prices may remain erratic in the near term. Limes (150 ct) Increasing Good Higher Lemons (95 ct) Increasing Good Lower Lemons (200 ct) Increasing Short Lower Honeydew (6 ct) Decreasing Good Higher Cantaloupe (15 ct) Steady Good Higher Blueberries (12 ct) Decreasing Good Higher Strawberries (12 pnt) Decreasing Good Lower Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Increasing Good Lower Bananas (40 lb) Term Increasing Good Lower Pineapple (7 ct) Term Increasing Good Higher Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Steady Short Higher Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Steady Short Higher Processing Potato (cwt) Steady Short Lower Yellow Onions (50 lb) Decreasing Good Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher Red Onions (25 lb) Term Increasing Good Higher White Onions (50 lb) Term Increasing Good Lower Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Decreasing Good Higher Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Decreasing Good Lower Green Peppers (lg case) Increasing Good Lower Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Decreasing Good Higher Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Higher Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Increasing Good Lower Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Lower Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Increasing Good Higher Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Increasing Good Lower Broccoli (14 ct) Increasing Good Lower Squash (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Lower Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Lower Green Beans (bushel) Increasing Good Lower Spinach (flat 24) Steady Good Lower Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Steady Good Higher Cucumbers (bushel) Increasing Good Lower Pickles (200-300 ct) Term Increasing Good Lower Asparagus (sm) Decreasing Good Lower Freight (truck CA-Cty Av) Increasing Good Lower