Winery Engineering Conference Philip Gregan NZ Winegrowers
2 Reputation: Wine exports: $US/litre - 2014-2016 7.00 6.59 6.00 5.39 5.00 4.00 3.00 3.68 3.51 3.49 3.41 3.12 3.11 3.07 3.06 3.06 2.00 1.00 2.26 2.14 1.94 1.66 1.43 1.32 1.15 0.92 0.67 0.00
3 Rising export sales 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 $m 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
4 Key market growth 600 500 400 $ million 300 200 100 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 UK Australia USA Canada Other
Increasing Sauvignon Blanc production 350,000 300,000 250,000 Tonnes 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Riesling Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Merlot Syrah Other 5
Marlborough now dominates 350,000 300,000 250,000 Tonnes 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Marlborough Hawkes Bay Gisborne Auckland Waikato/BOP Wairarapa Nelson Waipara Canterbury Central Otago Northland Other 6
7 Progress to date Issue 1981 2018 Reputation Domestic only International low quality unrecognised High quality Globally successful Cool climate Niche producer Globally Competitive No Yes in target segments Point of Difference None Our Reputation the wines can only come from NZ Markets NZ NZ, UK, Australia, USA, Canada Regions NI dominant Marlborough dominant Vineyard Area 2,600 ha Approaching 40,000 ha Constrained in Marlborough Varieties Muller Thurgau Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Noir Wellington, 29 & 30 August Pinot 2018 Gris
8 Progress to date Issue 1981 2018 Aspiration/focus Protect domestic market Grow high value global markets Importance to NZ Little $1,700,000,000 of exports Reputation builder 6th largest export good Tourism Risk Opportunity/The Big Issues Agricultural Regulatory risk (inc tariff reduction) in domestic market Access to consumers Inflation Australia (lower cost producer) Identify point of difference Grow quality Build a Reputation Damage to Reputation Regional focus on Marlborough Varietal focus on Sauvignon Blanc Anti-alcohol sentiment Climate change Anti-trade sentiment Invest in quality & reputation Sustainability Expansion beyond Marlborough Lower alcohol Growth beyond traditional markets
9 General thoughts on the future It is very difficult to be recognised as world s leading we are with Sauvignon Blanc. NZ wine export success reflects our reputation for distinctiveness, quality, sustainability etc. We need to ensure that whatever we do in our vineyards, wineries and markets invests in and builds on that reputation. Growth will be led by North America over the next 5 years. After that Asia will become an important driver of growth. Domestically wine tourism is increasingly important it needs to be a personal experience Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc will continue to be the engine of growth for at least the next 5 years.
10 Some general thoughts on the future. But exports of Pinot Noir, Pinot Gris and Rose already exceed $250 m and seem set to grow further. There are also opportunities with other styles eg Syrah, Chardonnay etc time is needed to build our reputation. Medium term, Marlborough is rapidly running out of land that will generate some interesting challenges/opportunities for the industry going forward.
11 Issues for wineries Issue Aspect Matters to consider Earthquakes Climate change Alpine Fault, 30% chance in 50 yrs Hikurangi subduction zone Other fault risks eg Hope, Wairarapa etc Energy sources CO2 emissions from fermentation Insurer willingness to cover Design issues Staff health & safety Concentration risk in Marlborough Bottling & storage location Alternative renewable sources & storage of energy ETS, taxation, regulation CO2 capture & storage Bottling location Packaging type/format Water Quantity Competition & limitations on use Capture, storage & re-use Climate change impact on supply Environmental taxes? Treaty of Waitangi?
12 Issues for wineries Issue Aspect Matters to consider Water Quality Waste water standards will get higher Environmental taxes? Treaty of Waitangi? Marc Disposal/use Needs to be treated as a resource not as waste Odour, contamination of ground water are significant issues Labour Availability & cost Cost will increase, availability may decrease Diversity increasingly important Technology to lift productivity Regulation will make low skill roles increasingly expensive Health & safety The rise of millennials
13 Issues for wineries Issue Aspect Matters to consider Sustainability Accreditation Not if but to what level? More than just about the environment Critical to our consumers Traceability & transparency Food safety/integrity/authenticity Increasing regulation is inevitable Block chain For consumers, retailers, importers etc it will be about their brand/reputation an absolute right to know Social media Wine Tourism Making it a personal real experience Design needs to reflect the growing importance of tourism Both a marketing & a sales activity.
14 Concluding thoughts The NZ wine industry is at a very exciting phase in its development. NZ wine export success reflects our reputation for distinctiveness, quality, sustainability etc. We need to ensure that whatever we do in our vineyards, wineries and markets invests in and builds on that reputation. Some issues are going to become far more important over the next few years reflecting the enormous pressure massive population growth is placing on global resources. That makes issues around sustainability - both as a production driver and a consumer driver ever more important. We are in a great place to capitalise on these trends its just up to us to turn them to our advantage.