4 5 6 7 8 9 35 4 45 5 55 Sonoma State University Business 58-Business Intelligence Problem Set #6 Key Dr. Cuellar Trend Analysis-Analyzing Tasting Room Strategies 1. Graphical Analysis a. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the Highway 29 wineries in Napa. Napa Highway 29 Open Wineries b. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the Silverado Trail wineries in Napa. Silvarado Trail Open Wineries
1 2 3 4 5 6 2 4 6 c. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in retail sales for the Highway 29 and Silverado Trail wineries. Describe your graph. Note, there are two ways to accomplish this with the data in current format: i. Export the data to Excel using the table function: table date region,c(mean total_cases). ii. Use the twoway graphing function: twoway (scatter y x)(scatter z x) Napa HWY 29 Silverado Trail d. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the open wineries along Highway 29 in Napa. Shown above. e. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the reserved wineries along Highway 29 in Napa. Napa Highway 29 Reserved Wineries
1 2 3 4 5 2 4 6 f. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in retail sales of the open and reserved wineries along Highway 29 in Napa. Describe your graph. Napa HWY 29 Open Napa HWY 29 Reserved g. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the open wineries along the Silverado Trail in Napa. Shown above. h. Show graphically the trend in retail sales for the reserved wineries along the Silverado Trail in Napa. Silverado Trail Reserved Wineries
-.5.5 1 2 4 6 8 i. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in retail sales of the open and reserved wineries along the Silverado Trail in Napa. Describe your graph. Silverado Trail Open Silverado Trail Reserved 2. Indexing a. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in indexed retail sales for the Highway 29 and Silverado Trail wineries. Describe your graph. Napa HWY 29 Silverado Trail
-.5.5 1 1.5 1 2 3 b. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in indexed retail sales of the open and reserved wineries along Highway 29 in Napa. Describe your graph. Napa HWY 29 Open Napa HWY 29 Reserved c. Compare (i.e., show graphically together) the trend in indexed retail sales of the open and reserved wineries along the Silverado Trail in Napa. Describe your graph. Silverado Trail Open Silverado Trail Reserved
3. Regression Analysis a. Estimate the following regression model which compares the growth rate in retail sales of the Highway 29 wineries with that of the Silverado Trail wineries. lncases = Where Holiday is a dummy that accounts for the peak sales months of October, November and December. However, because the holidays occur at the end of the month those sales are represented in the months of November, December and January in the data. Thus, use those months when you define your dummy variable. b. Describe the difference, if any, in sales between the Highway 29 and Silverado Trail wineries. Based on the regression results, the growth rate in sales of the Silverado Trail wineries is greater (.5% per period) and statistically significant. Holiday sales of Silverado Trail wineries are also greater (1.2%), but not statistically significant. c. Construct and estimate a regression model which compares the growth rate in retail sales of the open Highway 29 wineries with that of the reserved Highway 29 wineries. d. Describe the difference, if any, in sales between open and reserved wineries along Highway 29. Based on the regression results, the growth rate in the reserved tasting rooms along Highway 29 is greater (1.4% per period) and is statistically significant. Holiday sales of the reserved tasting room wineries are also greater (1.9%), but not statistically significant. e. Construct and estimate a regression model which compares the growth rate in retail sales of the open Silverado Trail wineries with that of the reserved Silverado Trail wineries. f. Describe the difference, if any, in sales between open and reserved wineries along the Silverado Trail. Based on the regression results, the growth rate in sales of reserved tasting rooms is less than that of the open tasting rooms (-.4%) but not statistically significant. Holiday sales of the reserved tasting room wineries are greater (27.8%) and are statistically significant.
Regression Results Hwy 29 v ST Hwy 29 v Hwy 29R ST v STR Time.5 [.4] [.34] [3.35]** Holiday.253.253.265 [7.65]** [6.46]** [4.76]** Silverado -2.144 [52.69]** Silverado_time.5 [3.7]** Silverado_Holiday.12 [.26] Napa29R -5.426 [112.58]** Napa29R_Holiday.19 [1.97] Napa29R_time.14 [8.78]** SilveradoR -3.249 [47.43]** SilveradoR_Holiday.278 [3.54]** SilveradoR_time -.4 [1.85] Constant 12.84 12.84 1.66 [444.88]** [375.74]** [22.2]** Observations 14 14 14 Adjusted R-squared.99.99.99 Absolute value of t-statistics in brackets * significant at 5% level; ** significant at 1% level