January 4, 2018
Beef Arctic weather and holiday-reduced production schedules are limiting beef output. Consumers are hunkered down due to inclement weather which is helping retail sales for at-home meals. Ground Beef: Retail features have kicked into gear this week. With one less production day due to New Year, supplies are tight. Ribs: Prices were adjusted lower on post-holiday sales and we saw good forward bookings. Prices are up as spot supplies get tighter. Briskets: Better demand, especially from corned beef processors, and smaller supplies are pushing prices up. Rounds: Retail features are widespread this week. Supplies are tight and prices are higher. Strips: We continue to see good forward sales of strips to support retail features at $5.99/lb. Prices may slip after we resume 5-day production weeks in January. Tenders: Like ribeyes packers lowered post-holiday prices and sold substantial quantities for future delivery. Prices have firmed this week in response to limited spot supply. Thin Meats: Prices for ball-tips, flanks and skirt meat often pick up after the first of the year with reduced supply and good demand.. Pork Winter weather is impeding hog sales and deliveries, leaving processing plants running less than full schedules. Trucks have been an issue both in and out of plants keeping fresh pork supplies tighter than expected. Butts: Domestic retail sales, export interest and the reduced slaughter schedules have helped support prices. Prices often relax after we get back into full production later in January. Hams: After adjusting lower prices are steady on holiday-reduced supplies. Bellies: Prices appear to be bottoming out due to smaller packer output. We are nearing the values that often trigger new retail features. Ribs: Here again lower output has stabilized prices Loins: Prices are mostly flat. Loins usually don t get a lot of retail attention this time of the year.
Chicken Harsh winter weather and the threat of more to come is keeping retail demand strong as consumers stock up. Weather and lack of trucks have kept plants has running at on reduced schedules,keeping supply in close balance. Breast and Tenders: Breast meat and tenders are well cleared with the possible exception of jumbo breast. Prices are steady for breast meat and are trending higher for tenders. Wings: Prices are now below the 5-year average during a traditionally strong demand time period. Winter weather is probably not helping restaurant demand, but we are seeing prices inch higher. Dark Meat: Export demand for leg quarters is very good and supplies have tightened up. Thigh meat prices are steady and supplies are balanced. Turkey November frozen whole turkey inventories were the highest since 2008/2009. Since this is a month-end inventory number, it is a reflection of how well supplies were cleaned up over Thanksgiving. With this big inventory overhang it is no surprise that whole turkey and bone-in breast prices are stuck near 10-year lows.
Cod - Alaskan (1x Fzn) Currently we have good supply of the Alaskan cod at a stable cost. Cod - Atlantic (1x Fzn) Cod loins currently are in ample supply while the costs have remained steady for some time. Expect good supply through Lent. Once frozen Russian fillets are expected to increase in costs due to poor fishing and a reduction in quota. Expect supply to tighten into and through Lent Cod - Atlantic (2x Fzn) Raw material forecasts to remain firm until Spring 2018. Cod - Pacific (2x Fzn) Raw material to remain firm until Spring of 2018. Crab - Snow The Canadian snow crab season has wrapped up and there are few loads being offered. Prices remain elevated at this time and product is short on the market. All will wait to see the quota announcement for the Alaskan season in October which will impact the cost of crab going into the 2018 season. Euro Lake Fish & Zander Great supply for a steady cost of goods. These items can be a price fighting alternative to the higher priced domestic lake fish. Flounder/Sole Raw material extremely tight. Prices have increased 30% Frog Awaiting new supply,out of Asia. FDA typically detains frogs legs for testing and it is the same this fall. Due to this supply has been short and costs to date have been stable but firm.
Gator The gator season started this month. To date there is very limited information coming out of the south in relation to the harvest and if the added rains have impacted the season. For now costs have firmed on the farmed as the need for hides has decreased therefore affecting the cost meat. Lobster - Brazil The Brazil offering has continued to be weak to date. Cost have increased slightly from the beginning of the season but there is not an overabundance of supply. Lobster - North Atlantic Costs took a slight decrease this summer but have rebounded slightly as of late on most sizes of tails. The larger sized tails in the 6/7 and 8/10 oz range have been very hard to come buy and have greatly increased in cost. We do not expect much relief on these sizes until the fall Nova Scotia fishing season that typically yields a larger percentage of larger lobsters and tails. Meat prices have decreased over the summer but some costs have increased as of late for standard CK and CKL meat. Overall this market has been soft and uncertain. Mahi Mahi Costs for mahi mahi have remained elevated due to the sever lack of world supply out of both South America and Asia for 2017. Taiwan #'s indicate that the catch was off by as much as 60 %, The S American Peru season resumes in October, however due to current market conditions and the severe lack of overall supply, they do not expect costs to ease for several months. Plan accordingly on supply to get well through the holiday season. Perch & Walleye Perch and walleye supply have been strong for the 2017 season, however costs have remained firm as of late mostly due to the exchange. Most of the perch quota has been caught while the bulk of the walleye to be harvested October and November. Pollock - Atlantic (1x Fzn) Current prices are stable and supply is good on the smaller 2/4 oz IQF and SP sizes in addition to the SP 4/6 oz as well. As product is harvested out of the Gulf of Alaska we are hoping for added offerings in the larger 4/6 IQF size. The 6/8 oz size SP are still expected to be short and or limited for the rest of the 2017 B season. Costs are relatively stable for good demand. Start planning accordingly for an early Lenten season. Scallops The scallop quota was increased for 2017 and to date supply has been good with no interruptions. Costs have been lower than previous years through the course of the summer. AS the bulk of the season / harvest wraps up in the fall expect to see some uptick in costs as we move through the winter and into the spring.
Sea Bass Good supply with a slower demand. Costs have softened slightly as new supply has arrived into the US. Shrimp - Asian Black Tiger Black tiger shrimp remain firm as supply overseas continues to be lower than demand. Prices have elevated in most supplying countries as retailers and foodservice alike have attempted to bulk up for the holidays. Expect spotty supply as we continue on with most producers shifting to white shrimp production. Shrimp - Asian White Asian white shrimp markets have firmed up over the last month as demand has outpaced supply. US inventory levels will ultimately drive market movement in the next 1-3 months as the next major production time period is not far out. Shrimp - Domestic Peeled (PUD) Domestic PUD markets continue trending upward as raw material shortages have developed. With very limited landings this time of year, the market turns from an approach of selling to an approach of making inventory last until the spring. Shrimp - Domestic Rock & Pink Rock shrimp supply is good and material is available within the network. Shrimp - Domestic White & Brown Headless Domestic White & Brown shrimp prices are firm with supply dwindling with good demand. Prices are not expected to soften as we move into winter. Shrimp - Latin Whites Latin white shrimp markets are firm as replacement cost is above current local offers. Swai Raw material scarce. USDA mandatory inspections and raw material shortage will keep prices firm. Tuna - Frozen Vietnam has reported reduced catches over the last month by as much as 30% on tuna. Many are predicting higher prices this fall also partly due to the lack of supply out of Indonesia as well. For now there is adequate supply and stable costs.
Whitefish Whitefish supplies are ample and costs have been steady for some time. The bulk of the whitefish will be harvested in the fall season to last through the spring.
Cheese The CME Barrel market has finally moved into the traditional spread we are use to seeing. Speculators feel the markets will stay more traditional through the holidays as supply is over demand. Eggs Retail demand mixed. Supplies ample to long. Market weak. Butter Butter production is active again due to large cream volumes in an effort to build an already large inventory in preparation for the spring pull. Expectations for the New Year are higher average prices based on increased usage and demand from consumers in the US, as well as an increased export demand. This should keep pricing above current levels. Pricing Trend Block Cheese Barrel Cheese Butter Large Eggs Medium Eggs Small Eggs Last Week Current Week Up Down Down Down Down No Change Up Down Up Down Down No Change Wheat Flour and wheat prices are both flat right now but there is some concern that bitter cold weather could damage the winter wheat crop in the Southern Great Plains. Stay tuned...
Soybean Oil Exports have been a little slow and the soybean crop in South America is off to a good start. Prices hit October lows last week and recovered after end users began covering future needs. Sugar Many major sugar processors have sold most of their capacity out for 2018 leaving spot prices very firm. Cane sugar harvest is wrapping up in the U.S. but is just getting started in Mexico. Cane supplies are tight in Mexico and prices are above U.S. levels. Temperatures in the Arizona/California desert growing region once again dropped into the low to mid-30s, causing widespread lettuce ice and harvesting delays. Long-term, quality-related defects such as dehydration, epidermal blister, epidermal peel, and lower case weights due to heavier trimming will occur. Broccoli and cauliflower prices remain elevated. The California grape market is up; storage stocks are nearly depleted. Offshore seedless grapes will begin shipping in two weeks. Cardoons Cardoons looks like overgrown celery and taste similar to artichokes. Pale green and fibrous, their inner stalks/leaves can be used (after removing tough strings) as an asparagus or artichoke substitute. Cardoons must be cooked; steaming, sauteing, and baking are popular methods. Try adding to stir-fries, soups, stews, or serve cold with aioli or vinaigrette. Packed in 30-pound boxes, cardoons are available through the winter season.
Cara Cara Oranges Cara Cara oranges are prized for their sweetness. Often called red or pink Navels, their flesh is brightly colored and looks similar to grapefruit. Medium in size, most have approximately 10 to 12 seedless segments per fruit. Substitute Cara Caras for any variety of orange in cakes, catered lunches, fruit salads, and tarts. Available through April, Cara Cara oranges are typically shipped in 20-pound packs. Green Gooseberries Green gooseberries are large, tart berries with skins that can be either smooth or fuzzy and inner flesh that contains many small, edible seeds. Often used in chutneys, jams, pies, and syrups, smooth-skinned green gooseberries also pair well with lamb, pork, and venison. Look for them through January in 12-count half-pints.