ASCINA FRANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA 904 - DUHART LICELLA CLASSICO SUPERIORE TERRE DI CARIANO - CHAPOUTIER ROTIE TURQUE - JOSEPH FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEOVILLE USBOURNE BLANC DE BLANCS - PONSOT CHAPELLE CHAMBERTIN ES - BOUTISSE - DUCRU BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT MOUTON NTRACHET - TROTTEVIEILLE - PELICAN ARBOIS SAVAGNIN OUILLE E ROUGE - BEAUSEJOUR DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV MBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BIENVENUES BATARD D ROUSSEAU CHARMES CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON OY CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRION - BENJAMIN CHAMP GAIN - MASSETO - MICHEL OGIER COTE ROTIE ZIN (POMEROL) - TUA RITA REDIGAFFI - LAVILLE HAUT TI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRAS - HARLAN OAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - JOSEPH FAIVELEY LOT ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT - CLOS ST JEAN X MACHINA - EVANGILE - PONSOT GRIOTTE EAUNEUF DU PAPE - BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS CHAMPAGNE - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD ROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - KRUG N DOM PERIGNON ROSE - TIGNANELLO GARTEN GROSSES GEWACHS - PICHON - DOMAINE LEROY VOSNE ROMANEE ES - DRC ROMANEE CONTI - GUIGAL RT DOM RUINART - COMTES LAFON ILLE LAS CASES - CANON GAFFELIERE E - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS ENAC - CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET Z - OPUS ONE - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE SCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE ER VV FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS UT BRION - CHENADE - GAJA COSTA BERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LOUIS US - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC MITAGE CHAPELLE - FELTON ROAD MILION) - CLARENCE HAUT BRION CK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS RE - PINGUS - HENRI JAYER NUITS GEORGES ROUMIER CHAMBOLLE LA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE LAFITE - VIEUX CHATEAU CERTAN C MUGNIER CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY AL BLANC - ARROSEE - JOSEPH LLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER E - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE MOULINE UT BATAILLEY - ARMAND ROUSSEAU ITAGE PAVILLON - AUSONE - ROCHE LALANDE - FRATELLI ALESSANDRIA LAUX - BRANCAIA BLU - BRUNO OIX BEAUCAILLOU - DOME - COMTE R CRU - HAUT BRION - SCREAMING AMPAGNE ROSE - DOMAINE LEROY S - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE - FREDERIC MAGNIEN GEVREY ROGER SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL HSCHILD - SOLAIA - BEAUCASTEL UINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOUTON LARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJA CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELUS NDRIE - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT S - CONSEILLANTE - HENSCHKE HILL ERCARLO - PONTET CANET - FELTON RN - MONTROSE - PIN - BRUNO LLETTO - GIACOMO CONTERNO - PEBY FAUGERES - CHAPOUTIER IE - CLARENDON HILLS ASTRALIS ELLO MONTALCINO TENUTA NUOVA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOCHOT NDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC) CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES MITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE SIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPET PERE - BEAUCASTEL CHATEAUNEUF DU H PHELPS INSIGNIA - PONSOT CLOS NELLO MONTALCINO - EMMANUEL OS PARANTOUX - PETIT CHEVAL - EGLISE CLINET - FORTS LATOUR EORGES ROUMIER BONNES MARES EAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAYER VOSNE - TRAPET PERE ET FILS CHAMBERTIN IGNON - CRUZELLES - MONDOTTE ILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALMAVIVA ES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASSE PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE NFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT INE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN N VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON E MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK Y VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO - PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG ARD CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET D - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE RAND PUY LACOSTE - GIACOMO RANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN - CECILIA BERETTA VALPOLICELLA QUARTER TWO INVESTMENT OVERVIEW 2018 WWW.WINEINVESTMENT.COM - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE LAS CASES - C CHAPELLE AUSONE - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS GRUAUD CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET - DRAGON QUINTUS - ORMES PEZ - O CHEVALIER MONTRACHET - LASCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE - TERT FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS - RONAN BY CLINET - MISSION HAUT B RUSSI - FOURRIER GEVREY CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LO DOMINUS - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC OREE - PAUL JABOUL FELTON ROAD RIESLING DRY - CANON (SAINT EMILION) - CLAREN PINOT NOIR BLOCK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS D'ESTOURNE HENRI JAYER NUITS SAINT GEORGES MURGERS - GEORGES CRAS - RAUZAN SEGLA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO FA DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE HERMITAGE BLANC - CARR CERTAN - LAFLEUR - JACQUES FREDERIC MU AMOUREUSES - PALMER - CHEVAL BLANC - ARROS MARES - BOLLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC M BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER CRISTAL - T COTE ROTIE MOULINE - JOSEPH DROUHIN ARMAND ROUSSEAU CHAMBERTIN - CHAP AUSONE - ROCHE BELLENE CLOS ROCHE ALESSANDRIA BAROLO GRAMOLERE - P BRUNO GIACOSA BARBARESCO ASILI - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGN SCREAMING EAGLE - TAITTINGER COMTE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BOUDOT HERMITAGE - CLOS MARQUIS - CHAMBERTIN CAZETIERS - POL ROGER MACQUIN - LAFITE ROTHSCHILD - SOLA DU PAPE - QUINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOU MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJ CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELU MONTLANDRIE - COMTES LAFON M MESNIL - PETRUS - CONSEILLANTE - H - SAN GIUSTO PERCARLO - PONTET C BANNOCKBURN - MONTROSE - PI ROCCHE FALLETTO - GIACOMO MONFORTINO - PEBY FAUGERES - ERMITE - PAVIE - CLARENDON HILLS A NERI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO TENU SICILIA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOC GRANDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES ERMITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE MUSIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPE CHAMBERTIN - BEAUCASTEL CHATE PERRIN - JOSEPH PHELPS INSIGNIA - P SANTI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO - ROMANEE CROS PARANTOUX - P VOUGEOT VV - EGLISE CLINET - FOR SEGUR - GEORGES ROUMIER BONN DENIS - FIGEAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAY COMTESSE - TRAPET PERE ET FIL CABERNET SAUVIGNON - CRUZELLES ROTHSCHILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALM MARES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASS PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE CONFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVA DOMAINE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEOR BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN - F VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON C MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK (AL VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO C PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG MO CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET BOUD COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGN LACOSTE - GIACOMO CONTERNO BA ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA 904 - DU VALPOLICELLA CLASSICO SUPER CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE MEAL - GUIGA FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEO RIG - GUSBOURNE BLANC DE B CHAMBERTIN - DRC RICHEBOURG - LY BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT BATARD MONTRACHET - TROTTEVIEI OUILLE - MIRAVAL COTES DE PRO DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV LAMBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE MONTRACHET - LATOUR - AR CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON DO CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRIO MONTRACHET CHAMP GAIN - MASSE GAJA SORI SAN LORENZO - GAZIN (P LAVILLE HAUT BRION - FARGUES MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRA FELTON ROAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - CLOS DE BEZE - ARLOT ROMANEE CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE DEUS EX M GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - CLOS PAP BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS FOURTET - TAI FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CORNISH P CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD P DROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - CHANDON DOM PERIGNON ROSE JORDAN JESUITENGARTEN GROSSES MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE - DOMAI BEAUMONTS - ECHO LYNCH BAGES - COTE ROTIE LANDONNE - RUINART MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE CANTEMERLE - CHAPELLE AUSONE - D
Introduction Introduction Portfolio based investment grade wine is one of the most established alternative assets available to investors looking for tax efficient, asset backed diversification and capital growth opportunities. Over 10 years, Cult Wines has become the global leader in providing analytically based, fine wine (FW) investment advice, both discretionally, and nondiscretionally, utilising algorithmically based models across historic and projected data. This, combined with over 150-man years experience in the fine wine markets has driven our Assets Under Management (AUM) to 83m for our client base across the globe. During 2017 our Index retuned 10.32% and since 2009 121.70%, annualised at 14.05%. With low interest rates, inflation concerns, low returns from traditional financial assets and an uncertain economic outlook, many investors are looking for ways to enhance portfolio yield, diversify and gain consistent capital appreciation. This is the 2nd quarterly overview we bring to our clients in 2018 summarising both the global equity and fine wine markets. Cult Wines Index Performance 240.00 230.00 220.00 210.00 200.00 1 180.00 170.00 160.00 150.00 140.00 130.00 120.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cult Wines Index Period From Period Until Total Performance Annualised Performance Q2 2018 31/03/2018 30/06/2018 3.61% - YTD 2018 31/12/2017 30/06/2018 5.43% - 1 Year 31/12/2016 31/12/2017 10.32% 10.32% 2 Years 31/12/2015 31/12/2017 37.36% 18.68% 3 Years 31/12/2014 31/12/2017 39.28% 13.09% 4 Years 31/12/2013 31/12/2017 32.79% 8.20% 5 Years 31/12/2012 31/12/2017 36.07% 7.21% All Time 31/10/2009 30/06/2018 121.70% 14.05% Source: Cult Wines Index (Powered by Liv-ex). 3
Global Markets Review Fine Wine Market Overview Global Markets Overview Global Equities: The global equity markets posted an upturn in May, pushing major indices into positive territory for this quarter. S&P 500 rallied 2.93%, while London s FTSE 100 gained 8.22%. However, global equities still came under pressure as concerns of trade wars persisted. In June, Asian stock markets tumbled significantly as the dialogue intensified after Donald Trump threatened an additional $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. Investor anxiety continued. Inflation in the US is picking up and accelerated in May to the fastest pace in more than six-years, reinforcing the Federal Reserve s hawkish interest rate policy while eroding wage gains. To navigate these uncertainties, some investors may adopt investment approaches that offer diversification and the flexibility to respond to changing conditions, potentially turning away from more benchmark-driven strategies. FTSE 100 +8.22% DOW JONES +0.70% Emerging Equities: China s CSI 300 index dropped 3.17% in April, and picked up slightly before May but later declined in the next two months. In response to such uncertainty arising from geopolitical events, China s central bank, for the third time this year, reduced its reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points, with the aim to calm investors and provide market liquidity. Moreover, a stronger US currency also put pressure on emerging markets, suggesting dollar-denominated debt sold by EM countries becoming more expensive to service. Volatility in emerging markets appears to be more unpredictable due to the ongoing trade tensions that have emerged in the last three months. The Hang Seng Index dropped significantly by 8% within two weeks during June as trade tensions between China and US intensified. Indonesia and the Philippines suffered in this quarter due to higher US interest rates. Indonesia s benchmark, the Jakarta stock exchange index 5.3% fell this quarter, while Philippine stock exchange index fell 12.4% over the same period. Commodities: The price of oil has been on the rise and hit its 4-year high at $75 a barrel this May, suggesting more inflationary pressure adding to the economy. By contrast, gold saw its price fall almost 5% in the last two months as international political tensions deepened. This suggests that many investors are less prone to consider gold a suitable hedge against risk coming from geopolitical uncertainty. UK Equities: UK equities markets posted a strong quarter, reversing the previous quarter s loss. Although global equites fell significantly during the first quarter, the UK equites market recovered quickly from February s selloff, with FTSE 100 ending 8.22% higher in Q2. UK Consumer Confidence rose two points in May as wage growth accelerated. However, weak economic data along with dovish comments from Bank of England lowered market expectations of a May rate hike. Higher oil price and uncertainty surrounding Brexit situations added to market concerns, leading to weaker business confidence. European Equities: European stocks rose in the second quarter of the year. However, longer-term growth expectation still looks relatively conservative as growth forecast from the European Central Bank appears to be cautious. HANG SENG -3.78% GOLD -5.14% Fine Wine Market Overview What do you need to know in Q2: Liv-ex 1000 rallied 3.6%, Liv-ex 100 up 1.9%. Bordeaux Legends 50 jumped 5.03%, driven partly by heavier Bordeaux trading in May. Burgundy 150 outperformed other sub-regions within Liv-ex 1000. Champagne 50, Bordeaux 500 and Rhone 100 all rise. Italy 100 closed 0.74% down at 267 in May. Rest of the World 50 finished virtually flat after spending nearly a month in negative territory at the start of Q2. As expected, the beginning of the second quarter was typically a quieter period of trading as attention turned to the key event in the fine wine market, Bordeaux En Primeur (EP) 2017. The Euro fell after the ECB announced its decision to end quantitative easing programs by the end of the year. Italy s ongoing political crisis weighed heavily on the euro zone during May. As a result, Italian government two-year bond yield rose to its highest level of 2.73% since 2013. Regional equity markets slipped into negative territory during the month. Source: Bloomberg. As a result, appetite for First Growths appeared to decline, reflected by a widening average spread in April. Positively, this was a very short-term drawback with demand increasing post Vin-Expo, which took place in Hong Kong in May. 4 5
Quarter Two Trade Overview Quarter Two Trade Overview Quarter Two Trade Overview Largely fuelled by Asian secondary market demand, trade sales have seen a YOY increase during Q2. Sales value and volume are both up, but perhaps more exciting is the increase in the number of wines being requested. We ve seen broadening demand for different wines from Bordeaux, Burgundy and Champagne in recent times and it is clear the Asian markets in particular have become more sophisticated and seek value from new producers. Vinexpo 2018 was hosted during the last week of May in Hong Kong and provided some solid insight into the consumption trends among Asia s largest buying countries, as well as export demand from the top Negociants. It s clear that Bordeaux remains the sweetheart of the Chinese market, with classified growth demand unabated. But Burgundy continues to steal a march, and the pace with which producers are able to establish themselves indicates that Asian palates are well adapted to the pinot style. Trades sales overall increased by 79% by value from Q1, with Lafite and Mouton climbing in line with that average. However, there was a discerning rise in demand for wines such as Petrus (132% uplift), Haut Brion (115%) and Ch. Margaux (132%). Opus One, Almaviva, Dom Perignon, Salon Le Mesnil, Clarence Haut Brion and all DRC cuvees all saw notable increases in demand and sales. Burgundy Leads the Gain in Liv-ex 1000 Liv-ex 1000 achieved another record high level at 364 in June. By the end of the quarter, Burgundy extended its record run and proved to secure another strong trading period, with the Burgundy 150 index up 10.6% year-to-date and market share increased to 16% within a month in May, according to Liv-ex. In addition, Bordeaux Legends 50 also became one of the major market movers gaining 7.6% for the first half of the year. Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 the measure of First Growths price movement- was under early pressure in April but later rebounded, helping to push Liv-ex 100 the broader measure of fine wine market into new record high at 317 closing at June. Champagne s growth also remained robust. Annual growth of Champagne 50 was 8.43% in the second quarter of the year. There is also increasing evidence demonstrating that major Champagne houses have enhanced promotion through innovative advertising and publicity strategy in Asian markets, suggesting increased future brand recognition and stronger global demand for Champagne. Helping the Champagne performance in particular is Krug, which has jumped to 15th place in Liv-ex power 100 this year. According to Liv-ex s director Justin Gibbs, the Krug 2002 Vintage Brut which was released in January 2016 at shy of 2,000 and later saw its price jump to 3,250 per case, representing a 62.5% in return within only two years. Only Italian wine region held loss, with the Italy 100 index closing 0.7% down year-to-date. The Rest of the World 50 index dropped in April but later recovered in the second quarter, with a modest increase of 1.7%.. In Q2, the market was largely boosted by heavier Bordeaux trading, which saw its trading volume up 6% of total value from 60%, mostly thanks to the increased market share of First Growths. As a result, Bordeaux Legends 50 and Bordeaux 500 all posted gains in the second quarter, jumping 5.03% and 1.9% respectively. Liv-ex 1000 has returned 3.6% since the beginning of the year. (334 346 June 30.2018) 12.0% 10.0% 10.6% Market Trends: Burgundy Level Changed % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 7.6% 6.1% 5.0% 4.3% 2.4% Q1 Change % Q2 Change % Year-to-Date Burgundy 150 Bordeaux Legend 50 Champagne 50 Rhone 100 Italy 100 Rest of the World 50 Burgundy had another record-setting quarter, with CW s Burgundy index posting the biggest gain of 10.72%. Driven by rising consumer demand, Burgundy has now become one of the most sought-after wine region next to Bordeaux. Relative scarcity, developed pricing strategy and improved price transparency are three important factors that contribute to the positive trend for this region. A stronger USD also aided the purchasing power of Burgundy aficionados in U.S. and Asia, contributing to rise of the CW Burgundy index. Moreover, along with Domaine de la Romanée-Conti (DRC) s robust performance, other big names from the region have built up a cult following by improving quality and recognition amongst key critics. -2.0% Year 2018 Source: Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000. The Liv-ex 1000 index is price weighted at launch as follows: Bordeaux 500 46%; Bordeaux Legends 50 22%; Burgundy 150 14%; Champagne 50 3%; Rhone 100 4%; Italy 100 7%; Rest of the World 50 4%. CW Burgundy Index 10.72% (Q2 2018) Burgundy accounts for 19% of CW s total current holdings 917 Clients hold Burgundy as part of their portfolios Burgundy s market share jumped to 12% by the end of 2017 (up from 7.7% in 2016) Geroges Roumier, Bonnes Mares 2005 set a record high of 40,000 per case in May 6 7
Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Two Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Two Cult Wines Performance in Quarter Two The overall CW Index posted a solid gain of 3.61 % whilst amongst its sub-indices, Burgundy has again proved its rising power in both Asian markets and traditional fine wine markets (e.g. European market) and extended its record run, gaining 10.72% in return this quarter. USA is another sub-region that enjoyed a very strong quarter, reversing Q1 losses by closing the quarter 10.25% higher. Burgundy: The outlook for the Burgundy market is optimistic, with CW s Burgundy index up as high as 10.72% during Quarter 2. The positive effects of limited supply and increased global demand contributed to a strong Q2 for Cult Wines. Big names such as Georges Roumier, Leroy and DRC dominated our client s discussion about navigating new Burgundy investment opportunity and significantly lifted the regions market share this quarter. For many years, it had been difficult for investors to evaluate the true value of Burgundy reds and whites due to the lack of price availability and established benchmarks. Increased market share has led to greater clarity on market prices. As a result, we expect to see a continuation of increasing appetite for Burgundy, creating room for future price appreciation and any positive surprises. In 2018, some well-known Burgundy producers have seen their vintages reaching new record high prices, such as Domaine Georges Roumier, Bonnes Mares 2005 vintage making 40,000 per case in May. Cult Wines Sub-Indices Performance Bordeaux +1.93% (+4.11% YTD) Burgundy +10.72% (+13.83% YTD) 115.00 115.00 USA +10.25% (+9.25% YTD) 115.00 Champagne: With the Liv-ex 1000 now at a new record high level, we expect to see regions with better value-enhancing strategy and establishing a stronger global presence. In 2018, Krug 89 and Salon 04, which both are produced by famous Champagne houses, generated a lot of trading activity as prices rose significantly for both wines. The ongoing attractiveness of the value and improving liquidity for Champagne will continue to provide compelling opportunities across many of our investment strategies, and especially for the Champagne house with a smart promotion strategy that would allow us opportunity to explore potential returns over longer periods of time. 105.00 95.00 105.00 95.00 105.00 95.00 US & Italy: CW s US index was up 10.25%. Entering the third quarter, the US wine market looks well positioned for further growth, and the improved US economy continues to be very supportive. Both Harlan Estate, proprietary red 2013 and Screaming Eagle 2014 posted attractive returns of 55.28% and 32.28% respectively in Q2. Although our Italy index drifted 0.22% in May, Tignanello 15, Cult Wine s most actively traded Italy s wine, still stands out and has returned 14% for our clients this quarter. Champagne +1.41% (+4.78% YTD) Italy +3.41% (+1.74% YTD) R.O.W* +5.32% (+7.35% YTD) All told, we have witnessed a positive picture for most of sub-regions this quarter. In the case of Burgundy, our positive view is driven primarily by increased market share and impeccable quality. With the fine wine market expansion likely to continue, we think Champagne has now entered a new stage characterized by significantly increased popularity and attractive entry point. Stepping into Quarter 3, we predict that Champagne is the next region of importance for investors, that will be carried to new highs by a supportive rising demand especially from emerging countries. Cult Wines vs Liv-ex 30th June 2017-30th June 2018 * R.O.W (Rest of World) contains Australia, Chile, Rhone and Spain. Source: Cult Wines Index (Powered by Liv-ex). Bordeaux: By region, Bordeaux still dominates market share. CW s Bordeaux index returned 1.93% for the quarter even with a greater focus on EP during this period. It is worth noting that prices for most of the First Growths have been on the rise this quarter, with older vintages such as Haut Brion 1989 being the major market mover within CW s Bordeaux index, increasing by 45% for the quarter. Post Bordeaux 2017, EP again proved its efficiency for certain estates who stuck to a sensible pricing strategy. However, the risks associated with this futures system are not negligible. In a campaign with more losers than winners, the need to be selective and employ expert advice was evident yet again. 30/06/2017 31/07/2017 31/08/2017 30/09/2017 31/10/2017 30/11/2017 31/12/2017 31/01/2018 28/02/2018 31/03/2018 30/04/2018 31/05/2018 30/06/2018 Cult Wines Index +9.65% Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 +3.10% 8 9
Champagne: The Next Burgundy? Champagne: The Next Burgundy? 3.00 2.84 2.50 2.38 5-Yr Sharpe Ratio 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.42 0.91 1.06 1.66 1.91 0.63 1.14 0.90 0.86 - -0.50-0.15 5 YR Sharpe Ratio (08-13) 5 YR Sharpe Ratio (13-18) DOM90 0.42 1.91 KRUG 90 0.91 2.38 LAFITE90 1.06 0.63 DRC90 1.66 1.14 OPUS ONE91-0.15 0.90 MASSETO90 2.84 0.86 Source: Liv-ex. Both Champagne Producer Krug and Dom Perignon Improved in Risk-Adjusted Return since 2013. Investing wisely is often characterized by timing of entry or exit in anticipation for the latest market trend. According to critic Antoni Galloni Champagne is the next Burgundy so to better asses the performance of this region we compared 5-year Sharpe ratio of six investment-grade wines (including two Champagne Houses e.g. Krug & Dom Perignon) with similar quality during 2008 2013 and 2013-2017. We found that, over the period 2008 to 2018, volatility of Champagne region has gradually declined. As a result, the 5-Year Sharpe ratios for both Champagne houses Krug and Dom Perignon have greatly improved. The higher the asset s Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance. As illustrated by our analysis, we favour a modest asset (5-10%) allocation to Champagne and believe now is the time to reconsider Champagne, given its significantly improved risk/return characteristics and liquidity. For investors, it was a brilliant idea to invest in Bordeaux First Growths 10 years ago. The attention has now moved slightly away from Bordeaux and turned to regions with increasing popularity and better production capacity, Champagne houses such as Salon and Krug are gathering momentum associated with declining volatility. Looking forward, many champagne houses (famous and relatively unknown) boast impressive long-term benchmarks and have the potential to unlock a cult following of consumers with big buying power. There remains a largely untapped market for the world s leading Champagne houses and we will be sharing our investment ideas with our clients shortly. Cult Wines Fine Wine vs Global Equities Click here to view 10
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