Minutes of Freshfel-SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 14 October 2013 Freshfel-SHAFFE Secretariat 14 October 2013
Introduction: The discussion will by no means involve matters or topics which could influence market prices or volumes and that the exchange of data and information is strictly limited to matters which do not interfere with competition or anti-trust legislation. The minutes and data from the meeting will be made publicly available to ensure the transparency of the discussion also for non-members. This discussion is in line with the European Commission (DG AGRI) policy on market transparency and information of its expert group. The teleconference reviewed first the forecasts for production in Northern Hemisphere countries, followed by a review of the current situation on key markets based on the Southern Hemisphere season outlook in the main markets. Participants included representatives from Spain, Italy, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, USA and South Africa. Input was also received from Turkey, Morocco, Argentina and Uruguay.
A summary of the Northern Hemisphere season 2013/2014 ORANGES Production Production Production Production Prod. Forecast Prod. Forecast Prod. Forecast Variation 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 (12/13)/(13/14) SPAIN 2.705.000 3.462.571 2.756.042 2.997.000 3.045.000 3.345.000 3.397.000 2% CYPRUS 29.200 23.360 24.000 24.000 24.000 24.000 24.720 3% ITALY 2.293.500 1.500.000 2.293.500 1.950.000 2.300.000 1.950.000 2.300.000 18% GREECE 930.500 802.000 860.000 685.000 700.000 914.000 960.000 5% TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 5.958.200 5.787.931 5.933.542 5.656.000 6.069.000 6.233.000 6.681.720 7% MOROCCO 732.400 790.000 710.000 875.000 976.000 763.000 962.500 26% TURKEY 1.173.000 1.230.000 1.230.000 1.260.000 1.352.200 1.300.000 1.331.800 2% EGYPT 1.800.000 1.620.000 1.700.000 1.700.000 2.350.000 2.350.000 2.350.000 0% ISRAEL 115.000 173.000 140.000 73.500 105.000 65.000 100.000 54% TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES 3.820.400 3.813.000 3.780.000 3.908.500 4.783.200 4.478.000 4.744.300 6% 9.778.600 9.600.931 9.713.542 9.564.500 10.852.200 10.711.000 11.426.020 7% FLORIDA 6.948.122 6.633.783 5.458.073 5.727.506 5.980.614 6.286.789 6.098.186-3% CALIFORNIA 2.109.203 1.581.902 1.956.116 2.231.673 2.140.956 2.140.956 2.089.137-2% TEXAS 69.245 56.252 63.038 75.144 54.710 54.594-100% ARIZONA 12.927 8.505 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) TOTAL 9.139.497 8.280.442 7.477.227 8.034.323 8.176.280 8.482.339 8.187.323-3% 18.918.097 17.881.373 17.190.769 17.598.823 19.028.480 19.193.339 19.613.343 2% EASY PEELERS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Variation SPAIN 2.040.000 2.229.626 2.021.023 2.197.000 2.395.000 2.094.000 2.144.000 2% CYPRUS 61.300 49.040 50.000 55.000 51.000 43.350 43.350 0% ITALY 702.700 527.000 702.700 850.000 770.000 622.500 715.875 15% GREECE 64.910 58.500 62.000 100.000 127.500 120.000 150.000 25% TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 2.868.910 2.864.166 2.835.723 3.202.000 3.343.500 2.879.850 3.053.225 6% MOROCCO 471.600 531.000 570.000 781.000 763.000 675.000 839.300 24% TURKEY 495.000 650.000 500.000 687.500 590.000 600.000 724.100 21% EGYPT 660.000 594.000 625.000 625.000 731.000 731.000 731.000 0% ISRAEL 133.000 130.000 150.000 135.000 175.000 153.000 180.000 18% TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES 1.759.600 1.905.000 1.845.000 2.228.500 2.259.000 2.159.000 2.474.400 15% 4.628.510 4.769.166 4.680.723 5.430.500 5.602.500 5.038.850 5.527.625 10% FLORIDA 298.237 212.848 228.497 247.321 231.808 238.590 236.204-1% CALIFORNIA 227.930 227.930 336.792 359.245 395.532 428.191 480.000 12% ARIZONA 13.608 8.505 11.907 10.886 7.257 7.257-100% TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) 539.775 449.283 577.196 617.452 634.598 674.038 716.204 6% TOTAL 5.168.285 5.218.449 5.257.919 6.047.952 6.237.098 5.712.888 6.243.829 9% LEMONS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Variation SPAIN 552.192 945.562 673.075 930.512 990.000 820.000 910.000 11% CYPRUS 17.500 14.000 15.000 16.500 18.300 18.300 25.254 38% ITALY 546.600 655.920 655.920 575.000 620.000 595.000 655.000 10% GREECE 46.500 30.500 40.000 25.000 47.000 50.000 55.000 10% TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 1.162.792 1.645.982 1.383.995 1.547.012 1.675.300 1.483.300 1.645.254 11% MOROCCO (Other citrus) 35.000 39.000 40.000 80.000 80.000 75.000 82.500 10% TURKEY 500.000 550.000 750.000 860.000 1.000.000 900.000 748.000-17% EGYPT 335.000 301.500 320.000 320.000 320.000 320.000 320.000 0% ISRAEL 64.000 45.000 55.000 43.500 55.200 65.000 71.500 10% TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES 934.000 935.500 1.165.000 1.303.500 1.455.200 1.360.000 1.222.000-10% 2.096.792 2.581.482 2.548.995 2.850.512 3.130.500 2.843.300 2.867.254 1% CALIFORNIA 510.200 723.933 723.933 762.035 743.891 743.891-100% ARIZONA 51.709 103.419 75.841 90.718 27.216 61.689-100% TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) 561.909 827.352 799.774 852.753 771.107 805.580 0-100% TOTAL 2.658.701 3.408.834 3.348.769 3.703.265 3.901.607 3.648.880 2.867.254-21% GRAPEFUITS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Variation SPAIN 46.194 50.814 52.000 53.070 51.800 53.000 49.000-8% CYPRUS 28.600 22.800 23.000 23.000 20.200 18.180 21.816 20% ITALY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% GREECE 7.300 6.500 7.000 1.000 7.000 6.000 7.000 17% TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 82.094 80.114 82.000 77.070 79.000 77.180 77.816 1% MOROCCO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! TURKEY 245.000 170.000 300.000 270.000 354.300 300.000 291.500-3% EGYPT 0 0 0 0 60.000 60.000 60.000 0% ISRAEL 235.000 220.000 215.000 188.000 247.000 210.700 210.000 0% TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES 480.000 390.000 515.000 458.000 661.300 570.700 561.500-2% 562.094 470.114 597.000 535.070 740.300 647.880 639.316-1% FLORIDA 1.025.572 836.650 782.673 761.468 726.768 782.674 782.674 0% CALIFORNIA 158.031 145.875 136.758 148.778 159.664 145.150 145.150 0% TEXAS 217.724 199.580 203.209 228.610 174.179 191.597 191.000 0% TOTAL CITRUS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Variation SPAIN 5.343.386 6.688.573 5.502.140 6.177.582 6.481.800 6.312.000 6.500.000 3% CYPRUS 136.600 109.200 112.000 118.500 113.500 103.830 115.140 11% ITALY 3.542.800 2.682.920 3.652.120 3.375.000 3.690.000 3.167.500 3.670.875 16% GREECE 1.049.210 897.500 969.000 811.000 881.500 1.090.000 1.172.000 8% TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 10.071.996 10.378.193 10.235.260 10.482.082 11.166.800 10.673.330 11.458.015 7% MOROCCO 1.239.000 1.360.000 1.320.000 1.736.000 1.819.000 1.513.000 1.884.300 25% TURKEY 2.413.000 2.600.000 2.780.000 3.077.500 3.296.500 3.100.000 3.095.400 0% EGYPT 2.795.000 2.515.500 2.645.000 2.645.000 3.461.000 3.461.000 3.461.000 0% ISRAEL 547.000 568.000 580.000 520.000 582.200 493.700 561.500 14% TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) TOTAL 6.994.000 7.043.500 7.325.000 7.978.500 9.158.700 8.567.700 9.002.200 5% 17.065.996 17.421.693 17.560.260 18.460.582 20.325.500 19.241.030 20.460.215 6% 11.645.547 10.739.942 9.976.837 10.643.384 10.642.597 11.081.378 10.022.351-10% 28.711.543 28.161.635 27.517.097 29.023.966 30.968.097 30.322.408 30.482.566 1%
Spain: Northern Hemisphere forecast The total production (provisional figures) during the season 2013-2014 will increase by 3% at ca 6.5 Mio T compared with the season 2012/2013. Sizes especially of early mandarines are tending to be smaller than usual. All fruit seems to be early skin coloration. Weather evolution will make the final difference with last year s amounts. Mandarines: the season for early satsumas and clementines started earlier. Central season tending to be similar as last year, not peaking in amount as two years ago. It is estimated that there will be less late hybrids, expect clemenvillas. It is very difficult to establish the influence of new hybrids plantations, but the expectation is to decrease global volumes in spite of that. Oranges: estimated that the production of early navels will be higher and very similar amounts of late varieties. The production decrease of the central season navels should not be realise din the market. Predicted a slight increase in classic juicing varieties. This season it is estimated that the volume of pigmented oranges will decrease, as fruit will be picked from new plantations. Lemons: higher production, both in Fino and Vernas. Date of picking on average, normal sizing, low impact of diseases. In general no big impact by climatic conditions, however hail in June affected production in some areas (+-50.000 tonnes), that fruit will go for processing. 2012/2013 for lemons was an extraordinary season. It seems to be difficult to achieve the same balance. No stocks from SH but increasing competition from Turkey (prices and quantities and 20% devaluation for TK). Lemon processing is expected to return to normal levels (240.000 tonnes). A goof normal crop for Verna is expected. Grapefruits: date of picking on average, smaller sizes, normal colouring, low impact of diseases. Normal climatic conditions. Heavy commercial competition with Turkey. Production (in tonnes) Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/2013 2.094.000 3.345.000 820.000 53.000 6.312.000 2013/2014 2.144.000 3.397.000 910.000 49.000 6.500.000 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +2.4% +1.6% +11% -7.5% +3% Italy: Oranges: Italy will come back to the situation of 2 years ago, with a regular production in terms of quantity. A shortage of big size (size ¾) is foreseen, as there will more small size oranges. Some damages due to the strong wind in last spring hit part of the total production. The consequences of CTV (citrus tristeza virus), that is destroying not less of 20% on citrus orchards just now. The total amount is 2.300.000 tonnes, including 600.000 tonnes of blood oranges. Lemons: excellent season, both for quantity (20% more compared last year) and quality (good size, especially for "Primofiore" variety). Some damages on fruits due the strong wind. It's expected probably a shortage of late varieties. Mandarins: good season also for mandarins with 10% more fruit in the orchards compared with the last campaign. Very good quality both varieties: "Avana" and "Ciaculli". Clementines: Same situation as with lemon, predicted an increase of 20%. A very good season in terms of quality. Production (in tonnes) Season Oranges Soft citrus Lemon Sum 2012/2013 1.950.000 622.500 595.000 3.167.500 2013/2014 2.300.000 715.875 655.000 3.670.875 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +18% +15% +10% +16%
Cyprus: Production figures stabilised the market of last three years. Picking of lemons and grapefruits started a week earlier comparing with previous season. Other fruit as usually. This week grapefruits started to be picked up, and it is planned to start the harvest of lemons next week. The good returns of last season are under threat as most countries are reporting higher expected production. Already this is evident by the poor start of the lemon and grapefruit campaigns. The bigger expected size of our main variety the Mandora will make marketing more difficult. The unfavourable weather conditions were during the blossoming of Mandora with warm winds affecting blossoming and thus production levels particularly in the Paphos area. The other varieties were not really affected. 2013/2014 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production 43.350 24.720 25.254 21.816 115.140 Exports inta EU 8.000 6.200 2.500 10.000 16.700 Export (third countries) 15.000 160 800 800 16.760 Total exports 23.000 6.360 3.300 10.800 33.460 Greece: The picking date of citrus fruit will be earlier compared with previous season. Fruits are expected to be of normal size and good colour with a very low impact of diseases. Climatic conditions were favourable for citrus fruit and did not have any major impact on the quality of fruit. Market outlook: it is expected for higher price trends for all citrus fruit during November, February and March. Stable prices during December and January. A good demand is expected for processing. Stable trade outlook and increasing consumption. 2012/2013 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production 120.000 914.000 50.000 6.000 1.090.000 Domestic fresh 55.000 435.000 - - 485.000 - Processing 1.000 135.000 - - 136.000 Export (third countries) 64.000 350.000 6.000 1.300 421.300 2013/2014 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production 150.000 960.000 55.000 7.000 1.172.000 Other Mediterranean countries Turkey: Turkey has provided provisional forecast for the season 2013/2014, however did not update figures of the season 2012/2013. Turkey will update the figures end October/beg November. Production (in tonnes) Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/2013 600.000 1.300.000 900.000 300.000 3.100.000 2013/2014 724.100 1.331.800 748.000 291.500 3.095.400 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +21% +2% -17% -3% 0%
Egypt: Despite being a key player in citrus in the Mediterranean region and several contacts with the sector, statistics and forecast for Egypt are not available at the current time! The group will continue its efforts to develop contact with reliable information. Israel: Season 2013/14 has started in good condition, in terms of fruit volumes, quality and sizes. Picking date comparing with last season started on average, expect for grapefruits - earlier. Sizes of soft citrus, oranges and grapefruits are good, mainly due to low crops and early maturation. Colouring of soft citrus and lemons is good, while that of oranges and grapefruits very good. Low impact of diseases. Alternate cold and hot weather during flowering time (spring 2013) was unfavourable for citrus fruit. The market situation for grapefruits continues to be bad, for 3 rd consecutive year. Some growers started pulling out their grapefruit orchards. The market for soft citrus is good, however only if the quality of fruit is good. Price trends expectation for soft citrus is expected to be stable, while that of grapefruits lower than last year. Soft citrus and grapefruits have weak demand for processing. Consumption of soft citrus is increasing, while the same of grapefruits decreasing. 2012/2013 (data in Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total tones) Production 153.000 65.000 65.000 210.700 493.700 Domestic fresh 45.000 35.000 61.500 15.000 156.500 Processing 30.000 22.500 1.700 117.200 171.400 Export (third countries) 78.000 7.500 1.800 78.500 165.800 2013/2014 (data in Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total tones) Production 180.000 100.000 71.500 210.000 561.500 Domestic fresh 50.000 35.000 68.000 15.000 168.000 Processing 30.000 35.00 1.500 125.000 191.500 Export (third countries) 100.000 30.000 2.000 70.000 202.000 Comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/2013 153.000 65.000 65.000 210.700 493.700 2013/2014 180.000 100.000 71.500 210.000 561.500 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +18% +54% +10% 0% +14% Morocco: Production this season is expected to recover after the low level of production registered last year. Depending on crop the increase will be 10-15% higher compared to the average crop. In future meetings EACCE will take the lead of coordinating the data and will represent Morocco during the teleconferences.
Comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Sum 2012/2013 675.000 763.000 75.000 1.513.000 2013/2014 839.300 962.500 82.500 1.884.300 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +24% +26% +10% +25% Other NH countries USA: General Comment: Due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. Government, the USDA did not publish the citrus forecast for the 2013/2014 season. The USDA has not given any indication of when we can expect a forecast to be released, but we assume some time after the government returns to full capacity. Based on the received comments the production cart above provides estimations for some citrus fruit. Florida: Oranges: Private estimates average 130 million field boxes down 3% from last year. Sizing is small with normal maturity. Main concern is unpredictable fruit drop and overall impact of Citrus Greening. Grapefruit: 18 million field boxes about the same as 2013. Slightly lower than last year. Tangerines: 3 million field boxes, down 1%. Overall, shipments to date out of Florida are 750,000 cartons. More packing houses are expected to open over the next two weeks. Texas: Grapefruit: Private estimates put the crop at 5 million field boxes, similar to last year. Growing conditions have been good and the sales focus will be on the domestic market. California: Navel Oranges: The projection by the California Department of Agriculture is 88 million cartons down 2%. This crop shows good sizing and early maturity by 10 days. Harvest should begin by October 21st, and we expect heavy shipments prior to the U.S. Thanksgiving, November 28th. Valencia Oranges: Private forecasts project 25 million cartons about the same as 2013. Tangerines: Private estimates place the crop up by 12% or 26.5 million cartons. Grapefruit: 8 million cartons, same as past season. Lemons: No consensus, average puts the crop at 45 million cartons. Focus on Southern Hemisphere: A few factors worth monitoring as the season progresses. California Navels: This is a very manageable crop and with an early start the industry should not be under pressure. This type of Navel Orange crop can lead to a good transition to the Southern Hemisphere. California Tangerines: Clementine/Mandarins have become so popular that increases in per capita consumption should absorb increases in production. A critical factor would be any cannibalization of the navel crop by these soft citrus varieties. Florida Fruit Drop: Last year all citrus production in Florida was down 9% and value was down 32%. Citrus Greening was certainly a factor and it needs to be carefully monitored. Main concerns Northern Hemisphere countries identified that the competition with other kind of fruit and quality issues are the main concerns which will be faced during the season 2013/2014.
Point of concerns Ranking Financial /economic crisis 10 Price return 6 Competition from other food product 9 Competition from other fruit 1 Declining consumption 3 Food safety 7 Quality 2 Market access barriers 4 Plant health 5 Access to plant protection product 8 (1 = the main concern up to 10 less concern) Southern Hemisphere season South Africa: The season for the variety Valencia is positive in spite of withdrawing exports to the EU. Production comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012 187.576 1.573.673 439.292 278.522 2.268.794 2013 125.406 1.078.579 238.640 158.986 2.479.064 Var 2012/2013-2013/2014 +8% +2% +16% +12% +9% Exports Citrus 2012 2013 Valencia 708.579 715.316 Navels 368.318 372.861 Grapefruits 195.585 224.365 Lemons 157.562 167.106 Soft citrus 114.530 122.657 Total 1.544.573 1.602.304 Argentina: The season 2013 ended early. Last season lemons were affected by drought and frost. Internal costs are rising. Unfavourable exchange rate and public policies for exports.
2013 Oranges Soft citrus Grapefruit Lemons Sum Production 600.000 350.000 60.000 1.325.000 2.235.000 Domestic market 350.000 135.000 28.700 50.000 563.700 Processing 200.000 35.000 30.000 1.000.000 1.265.000 External trade 50.000 80.000 1.300 275.000 406.300 Uruguay: Fruit are recovering from last year s frosts. Good size and good quality for most of varieties. According to the Ministry of Agriculture Census (July 2013) planting estimations for 2013-2015 are around 570.000 plants, out of which: 45 % mandarines (Murcot, Avana, WMurcot, Clementines) 24 % oranges ( Navels and Fukumoto, Navelate, Lanelate and Midknights) 31 % lemons Mandarines tariffs going up next year to 16 % after GSP (Generalised System of Preferences, EU trade scheme) ends up. WorkPlan for the US market signed in September, 24 th. At this point companies are trying a pilot export to the East Cost with oranges. Proving logistics, cold treatment and packing facilities requirements. 4 or 5 containers at the most. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++