SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITIES GREAT LAKES REGION, 2017 CROP YEAR GENERAL:

SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITIES GREAT LAKES REGION, 2017 CROP YEAR GENERAL: A fairly mild winter with above average temperatures in January and February caused fruit tree development to start several weeks earlier than normal. A March 14 cold snap halted growing degree-day accumulations and stopped bud development for the remainder of the month. Preliminary assessments showed some damage to peaches and sweet cherries in southwest Michigan, but apples in southwest Michigan and fruit in other parts of the region saw little or no damage. Cool wet weather in May slowed plant growth and limited pollination activity. May saw a lot of swapping between warm and cold temperatures coupled with windy conditions, adding challenges to disease and pest control. A hard freeze on May 8-9 brought damage ranging from light to severe in unprotected orchards still in bloom. In areas where fruit crops were past bloom, freeze damage appeared lighter, but growers were still expecting things to affect fruit drop later. For operations using frost protection, damage was not as significant. Warmer temperatures and frequent rain events in June sped up fruit development, and increased insect activity. As fruit developed, damage from the May 8-9 freeze became more visible. By the end of July, most fruit growing areas were four to seven days ahead of normal in terms of growing degree-day totals; however, soil moisture supplies varied widely across the State, even between farms only a few miles apart. In August, degree-day totals were about a week ahead of normal while the harvest of summer fruit crops was further ahead of that, but dry weather kept irrigation systems running to make up for moisture, and dry soils in many areas brought signs of drought stress to newly planted tree and small fruit crops. Spotted wing Drosophila (SWD) numbers were very high this season; growers that were able to maintain rigorous pest control and remove ripening fruit quickly were able to stay ahead of the pest. APPLES: Michigan is historically the third largest apple producing state in the U.S. behind Washington and New York. In 2016, Michigan produced 1.175 billion pounds of apples from 33,000 bearing acres. About half the crop was slated to go to the fresh market, while the other half of the crop went for processing. In addition to several on-farm cider mills, Michigan is home to several large apple processors which make everything from juice to wine to applesauce to packaged apple slices. Ohio apple acreage has been decreasing over the last few years. In 2016, Ohio produced 33.5 million pounds of apples on 3,200 bearing acres. About 80 percent of apples produced in Ohio are for fresh market. Crop Condition Notes (Michigan Specific): By the end of the first week of May, apples ranged from full bloom to petal fall in southern counties, while in the northwest, they were still at early pink. By early June, fruit set was highly variable, even on trees within the same areas, ranging from heavy to non-existent. In some parts of the State, side blossoms in apples that opened after the May freeze events set fruit, leading to larger than expected crop loads in blocks damaged by the May 8 freeze. In the West Central region, growers reported a lighter crop, but one that generally looked good in most sites. Apples were sizing well in areas where moisture was adequate, but in areas where rainfall was minimal, irrigation systems were running as needed. Some growers expressed frustration that fungicide sprays were washing off in the rain, leaving apples vulnerable to disease. As harvest progressed through September, growers reported that fruit size was average or a bit on the small side where irrigation was not present, but overall fruit quality was reported as good. Fruit size, maturity, and crop loads were reported to be variable due to the long bloom period in the spring, the May 8 freeze, and the prevailing dry summer weather. A heat wave in late September slowed color development, but caused fruit maturity to advance rapidly, raising concerns about how well apples would hold up in storage. Harvest was also forced to move along at an accelerated pace, adding challenges to harvest crews who not only had to battle the heat, but had to work more quickly to keep up with overlapping of maturity of multiple blocks and varieties of apples. Fortunately, early maturity and a lighter than expected crop allowed harvest to be completed early. Challenges: A common problem with the survey is the misinterpretation of the question regarding apples harvested but not sold. The intent of the question is to look for apples that were picked, but were essentially dumped before ever being sold due to fruit damage, poor quality or perhaps market factors (some operators will simply refer to these as cull

apples because they are being culled before their produce is shipped). However, many of the larger growers in Michigan place their apples into controlled atmospheric (CA) storage, which allows the apples to stay fresh throughout the winter and still look fresh picked in the supermarket into the spring. If an operation reports a large quantity of apples harvested but not sold, please ask if those apples are cull apples, or if those apples in storage waiting to be sold later. Please also ask how those apples will be sold if and when they come out of storage (fresh market or processed). In these cases, it would be expected that the answer to question 5 (has the 2017 apple crop been marketed) is probably no. If the bearing acres are very small, please make a note as to how many trees they have. If the respondent indicates that they aren t selling any apples, please make a note about how those apples are used (home use? given away?). PEACHES: In 2016, Michigan fell to the tenth largest peach producing state in the U.S., with 10,600 tons of peaches produced on 2,200 bearing acres. In Ohio, there were 640 bearing age acres of peaches in 2016, producing 1,570 tons. Crop Condition Notes (Michigan Specific): Peaches were at full bloom during the first week of May. By the end of May, preliminary reports indicated that the crop potential was fair to good. By mid-june, growers in the East were reporting a good crop while in the Southwest, the crop was spotty. Growers also reported that fruit of early ripening peach varieties were noticeably larger than later season varieties. Harvest of early peach varieties began in southern counties in late July, while later varieties were starting to color. Growers reported that peach quality looks good, with only minor disease and bird problems. Fruit size was reported to be good where thinning was completed early in the season. Although the late-season dry weather caused some challenges, some growers noted that the dry weather helped to enhance fruit sweetness. Challenges: If the bearing acres are very small, please make a note as to how many trees they have. If the respondent indicates that they aren t selling any peaches, please make a note about how those peaches are used (home use? given away?) It would be highly unusual to have someone say that their peach crop wasn t marketed at this point. As a general rule, peaches don t store well, so by this point, the entire crop should have been sold for fresh market or delivered for processing. TART CHERRIES: Michigan is historically the largest tart cherry producing state in the U.S. In 2016, Michigan produced 227 million pounds of tart cherries (69 percent of the U.S. total) from 28,700 bearing acres. 99 percent of the crop historically is sold for commercial processing. Crop Condition Notes (Michigan Specific): Growers were generally bearish on the tart cherry crop this year, with comments running the gamut from 20% of a regular crop to average crop. The freeze event around May 8th damaged some cherries, though the damage did not seem to be devastating. At the time of the June Forecast, growers could not fully assess whether fruit would show significant damage. Per reports from Michigan State Extension, growers in the southern part of the state thought they would have a good crop, but northwest growers were still unsure due to the early stages of maturity. Tart cherry harvest began in early July in the southernmost parts of Michigan as fruit began to mature quickly. Harvest was complete in southern counties by late July but continued mid-august in the northwest part of the State. Growers noted that although fruit quality was generally good, rain events and higher temperatures in early August softened later harvested fruit, reduced brix (sugar) levels, and raised concerns about diseases and insects. Challenges: A common challenge with this survey is that growers who sell their tart cherries to a fruit processor may not get paid until the crop has been fully marketed. Often times, a processor will pay a grower a percentage of the expected price (perhaps half of what the final price is expected to be). If the processing price seems very low, or is reported as zero because they haven t been paid yet, be sure to ask what the final price for those cherries is expected to be and use that price instead. If they have no clue, then enter DK (F5) with a comment.

SWEET CHERRIES: Michigan is historically the fourth largest sweet cherry producing state in the U.S. behind Washington, California, and Oregon. In 2016, Michigan produced 22,610 tons of sweet cherries from 6,700 bearing acres. Historically, over 90 percent of the crop is sold for commercial processing. Crop Condition Notes (Michigan Specific): At the time of the June 2017 cherry forecast, growers were not expecting a large crop on the order of 2016, and generally expected a more average crop this year. The May 8 freeze event caused some damage to the crop, and while growers in Southwest expected a good crop, some growers in the West Central region reported a total loss of their sweet cherry crop. Growers in the Northwest were still assessing the crop potential at the time of the June forecast, since the crop was still in the early stages. Sweet cherry harvest began in early July and was nearly complete by the end of July; growers expressed concern about bird feeding, SWD damage, and cracked fruit as a result of heavy rains during fruit development. Challenges: Similar to tart cherries, growers who sell their sweet cherries to a fruit processor may not get paid until the crop has been fully marketed. Often times, a processor will pay a grower a percentage of the expected price (perhaps half of what the final price is expected to be). If the processing price seems very low, or is reported as zero because they haven t been paid yet, be sure to ask what the final price for those cherries is expected to be and use that price instead. If they have no clue, then enter DK (F5) with a comment. GRAPES: In 2016, Michigan produced 93,400 tons of grapes on 12,600 bearing acres. Michigan led the nation in production of Niagara grapes with 25,000 tons produced in 2016. Michigan also produced 62,200 tons of Concord grapes, about 14 percent of the U.S. total. Michigan grapes are primarily grown in the northwest and southwest parts of the lower peninsula of Michigan along the Lake Michigan shore. Ohio produced 5,500 tons of grapes from 1,500 bearing acres in 2016. Of that total, 3,780 tons were Concord Grapes and 180 tons were Niagara grapes. Ohio grapes are primarily grown in the northeast portion of the State along Lake Erie and some in the eastern part of the state in the foothills of the Appalachians. There are basically 3 uses of grapes in MI and OH. 1 - The most commonly grown grape is the juice grape and the most common juice grapes are of the Concord variety and the second most common juice grapes are of the Niagara variety of grapes. These are all processed grapes. 2 - The 2nd most commonly grown grape in MI and OH is the wine grape. Some of these wine grapes are of the vinifera variety, have fancy names usually and are all processed as well. Some of these wine grapes are hybrids of vinifera grapes with other American grapes, whose fruits have the boldness and flavor of vinifera grapes, but are less susceptible to damage from extremely cold weather conditions. A small percentage of Concord and Niagara grapes are also made into wine. 3 - The least common is table grapes/fresh grapes sold directly to consumers or wholesale. There are a small number of Concord grapes that are sold as table grapes, but this is the exception. Grape vines take ~4 years before they start producing fruit. Therefore, it is possible to have grape vines planted, but for operations to have few or no bearing acres if their vines are less than 4 years old. If you run into a situation where a large majority of grape acres are not bearing, please capture a comment explaining why so many acres are not bearing (most likely because the vines are too young). When asking for production, it is sometimes easier for the grower to tell you a yield (usually in tons/acre) rather than total production. We will gladly take a yield and convert that to total production, so please take down any yield comments so we can calculate the total production.

Also, we welcome any comments about the growing season and they will help when setting the grape disposition and usage estimate, so please ask the grower how the conditions were in his/her area and how they affected the crop last year. Crop Condition Notes: Michigan saw slightly above average temperatures this spring pushing the growing schedule ahead by about a week of an average season in 2017. Early summer brought cooler temperatures and highly variable rainfall across the fruit regions while still remaining ahead of a normal season in terms of growing degree days. Disease pressure remained low given the wet conditions although SWD counts high most of the season in fruit regions this year than in previous years. A radiation freeze caused widespread, variable damage on May 8 th and May 9 th, especially in the southwest corner of the state where most of the vineyards are located. Grapes were in shoot development stage at this time, which meant a secondary shoot would likely grow on vines that were severely damaged and some crop could be produced. This made for a more intensive vineyard management plan for many vintners as two separate growth stages were taking place in some vineyards. Minimal winter damage to wine grapes was reported across Ohio for the 2017 growing season, although there was a spring frost reported on May 8 th and 9 th in the northeast portion of the state. Vineyards above sea level, closer to Lake Erie, and at earlier stages of development were hit the least by the freeze and damage was highly variable. Warmer than average temperatures and higher than average rainfall amounts late into May have led to promising fruit crop development, but also increased disease pressure with the wetter than usual conditions. Warm, wet weather from May turned a bit colder and remained wet in June and July as growing degree days moved back to normal and fruit crop development on schedule with a favorable outlook as long as disease pressure is managed properly. Plant diseases like black rot, downy mildew, and powdery mildew were present in vineyards and required treatment, but disease pressure was less than in recent years past. Weather was wet and conducive to mold and fungal diseases as well. Insect pressure (SWD, Grape Berry Moth, Grape Leafhopper, etc.) was around normal levels, except some reports of SWD were higher in the fruit areas of MI. By the end of August, grapes were showing color, softening, and beginning the process of sugar accumulation. Harvest began in mid-september in all areas except northwest Michigan and continued into mid-october. In northwest Michigan, wine grape harvest began around October 10 and continued into early November. BLUEBERRIES: Michigan historically leads the nation for acres of blueberries grown. As of 2016, Michigan harvested 20,300 acres of highbush blueberries and produced over 110 million pounds, ranking third in the nation for production, behind Oregon and Washington. Half of the production in 2016 was for fresh market, and the other half was for processing. Historically, production tends to favor processed over fresh berries. Blueberries produced in Michigan are known as high bush or tame blueberries. Low bush or wild blueberries are not counted in this survey. It takes approximately 3 years to reach bearing age for high bush blueberries, depending on the variety and growing conditions. Blueberry plants are sensitive to late spring frosts, starting when the buds are beginning to swell. In 2017, Michigan experienced an unexpected frost in May which could have affected yields later on. There were reports of damaged blossoms and some damaged buds. Spotted Wing Drosophila, or SWD, and mummy berry are two common problems that can lead to lower than average yields. Despite the unexpected frost in May, the quality and size of the berries were projected to be favorable. Overall, the mild summer conditions were beneficial to blueberry growers. The dry spell during the summer months kept the SWD population down, and there were fewer cases than average of mummy berry damage in the fruit. Harvest finished at the beginning of September for most regions. If the operator does not know the production, you can collect the yield data (typically in lbs/acre), if possible. We would be happy to convert it to production. Please leave comments when taking yield information. It will help us out tremendously. Sometimes the operator may be confused by the term tame blueberry. If this happens, try referring to the blueberries as high bush.

Also, we welcome any comments about the growing season and they will help when setting the blueberry acreage estimate, so please ask the grower how the conditions were in his/her area and how they affected the crop in 2017.