Jake Bernstein Market Forecast Webinar jake@trade-futures.com The Coming Commodity Collapse Saturday 1 March 2008 2008 by Jake Bernstein jake@trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 * FAX 831-430-0900
Fasten your seatbelts The wildest ride in history is coming 1 December 2007 Forecast What happened? Gold, platinum, oats, corn, soybeans, soybean oil, crude oil and CRB index all make new all time highs on massive volatility Virtually all commodity markets have shown their largest ever volatility and intra-day price swings Small trader sentiment as of 29 March is > 80% bullish on 25 of the major 35 markets. This is the first time in the history of Daily Sentiment Index that so many markets have been this high. In short the public is more bullish than ever What s next? Declines of up to 65% are likely 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 2
Forecasts No tops in place as yet Additional large gains likely but with huge risk Watch husi interest trates for the clue Corrections down could be 60% or more Watch 10 oc indicator and divergence for sell signals Prepare to BUY Muni Bonds Why? Watch for lumber buy triggers See long term channel support Will go down in history as one of the largest sucker plays ever Compare to the 1970 s 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 3
What factors am I Looking at? The Cycles: an overview The level of professional trader bullish sentiment: highest ever! The level of small trader bullish sentiment: highest ever Market correlations and inter-relationships The long term interest rate pattern Price and indicator divergence Status of Commercial positions But first let s look at a few comparisons of then and now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 4
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 5
The current rally in soybeans 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 6
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 7
Gold then 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 8
Gold now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 9
Wheat then 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 10
Wheat now and.? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 11
Crude oil rallies and corrects 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 12
Crude oil now and////? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 13
Silver then 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 14
Oats gives it all back! 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 15
Silver now and? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 16
Platinum then and 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 17
Platinum now and? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 18
Soybean oil then 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 19
Soybean oil now and? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 20
My forecasting record 1) BEFORE the start t of the biggest bull market in the history of copper, and platinum my advice was to go long 2) BEFORE the start of the largest bull markets in precious metals history my advice was to go long 3) BEFORE the start of the largest bull market in wheat history my advice di was to go long 4) BEFORE the start of the big bull markets in the soybean complex and corn history my advice was to go long 5) BEFORE the big bull market in cattle my advice was to go long 6) BEFORE the real estate decline my forecast for 2 years was clear and unhedged I predicted a top and a decline until 2009 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 21
7) BEFORE the bottom in coffee prices I predicted d the start t of a new bull market 8) BEFORE the rally in Yen/Dollar I predicted a major rally in the Yen 9) FOR 2 years BEFORE the record breaking rally in Canada $ vs. US$ I predicted a move to new all time highs in the Canadian $ vs US$ 10) BEFORE the bull market in cocoa I predicted a major low it has come 11) BEFORE the massive volatility being seen in virtually all markets today I advised clients to be prepared for massive volatility 12) BEFORE the spread of electronic trading I warned that large price swings would develop as a result of electronic order entry - correct And there were many other forecasts that were right on the money no I have not been 100% right and I never will be but these forecasts alone were not only correct but in MOST CASES completely opposite from what the experts were telling us WHY BELIEVE ME? Consider the long term forecasting track record Read my book THE NEW PROSPERITY published in 1989 by the New York Institute of Finance WHAT S NEXT.. Here are some things to consider 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 22
Huge Declines are Coming: Are you Ready? Many major cycles are in the correct time frames for long term trend change we are waiting for timing triggers they have NOT happened yet we will look at some of them There is considerable divergence illustrations to be shown Very low interest rates will fuel the already serious credit crisis through bailouts More financial crises were predicted at the December Webinar..they are now here. We were told to be prepared for bank failures when Bernanke casually mentioned it on Friday An economic accident in China looms large and it will result in a chain reaction in all markets the world over - Excessive speculation in metals will come to an end trapping many small traders don t be surprised to see gold drop over $80 in one day but there are now triggers yet When the tops come declines over 60% or more would be reasonable and have historical precedent But BEFORE the declines what will likely happen? Simply stated it s ALL ABOUT TIMING and the timing is NOT YET RIGHT for tops Let s look at the indicators and other relevant data for strong clues 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 23
A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER! Day trading in stocks and futures are excessive and continue contribute to large price swings most day traders lose and will continue to lose due to the huge volatility When oil prices collapse there will be a chain reaction in virtually all markets BUT the tops are not in place. What will be the trigger? Low interest rates will feed the very problem that created the current situation Government bailouts will further the crisis The longer US interest rates remain low the longer the bull markets will last and the more likely we are to get an inflationary blowoff Long term technical support levels in many markets are much lower than current price levelsl Previous bull market corrections have run between 60% and 75% Hedge funds are a primary source of market volatility and their participation will become even larger in 2008-2010. 2010 Many will lose money due to market volatility SOVEREIGN Wealth Funds (SWF) are now a major force and will add significantly to volatility and wild price swings. The track record of government investment is not the best - DANGER 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 24
Computerized trading and arbitrage trading will continue to dominate much of market activity this will exacerbate rallies as well as declines. When the tops come the declines will be faster than ever Fate of the energy bubble (next example) All markets are more closely related than ever chain reactions will occur! What to watch for (to be discussed in detail with specific examples) I am NOT TRYING TO SCARE YOU I am trying to prepare you and make you money! If you listened to my long term forecasts over the last few years then you have made big bucks it s time to protect those profits and make more profits on the way down Remember that markets DROP faster than they rally 65% of the bull market in gold could be erased in a matter of months 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 25
Energy the new bubble November and Every secular bull market has its bubblebbl The alternative energy is the new dotcom The chart below was shown at my November Webinar What happened by December? (See next page) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 26
Here s what happened 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 27
And now! 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 28
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 29
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 30
What happened AFTER 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 31
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 32
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 33
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 34
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 35
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 36
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 37
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 38
Tools I used in my forecast brief overview Long Term Cycles Momentum and MACD Divergence Comparative price trends / intermarket analysis Small trader sentiment (DSI) Valid chart patterns Historically reliable price patterns Commitment of Traders Commercials Value Area Index compares prices using historical value levels Price ratios and spreads 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 39
What has been happening? New all time highs in most currencies vs. US Dollar New all time highs in most energies New all time highs in wheat New all time lows in US Dollar New all time highs in platinum and copper New all time highs in Dow Jones, Russell and S&P New all time high in Dow Jones Transport Index New all time highs in CRB Index New all time highs in OJ New all time highs in many industrial metals Housing crisis Sub prime crisis full effects not known yet Banking crisis spreads Some bank failures imminent 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 40
Reversal in Aus/US$ after all time high 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 41
Aussie/US$ Now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 42
Gap higher open, all time high, lower close Canada$ 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 43
Here s what happened! 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 44
Canada $ Now MA Channel Timing 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 45
Apple has topped (Late Nov forecast) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 46
Apple now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 47
Google market leader has topped (Nov forecast) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 48
Google now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 49
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 50
Foreshadowing 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 51
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 52
The short term sell trigger points 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 53
First support for GLD 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 54
LONG TERM XLE SUPPORT 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 55
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 56
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 57
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 58
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 59
Let s look at small trader sentiment Why look at small trader sentiment? Who is the small trader? Is the small trader always wrong? Is the large trader usually right? Current sentiment readings and then Let s look at the cycles 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 60
Exceptionally high small trader sentiment 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 61
Gold is well past the mid-point of the cycle Arrow shows when I gave my long term buy recommendation 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 62
Copper cycle topping Here is where I recommended longs 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 63
CRB Cycle 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 64
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 65
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 66
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 67
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 68
2007 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 847-831-6900 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 69
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 70
Gold cycle past top time frame 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 71
Silver and spike resistance 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 72
Silver support area and cycles 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 73
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 74
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 75
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 76
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 77
Canada$ Aussie $ and Crude Oil Trends Compared Canada $ Crude Oil Crude Oil Leads Aussie $ 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 78
Gold, CRB, and Crude oil Trends Gold Crude Oil 1 st to bottom CRB Index 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 79
Crude Oil, Soybeans, Cattle Crude oil Soybeans Cattle 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 80
What is parabolic and why use it now? When markets go into parabolic mode they tend to bottom or top quickly, reverse trend and make large moves that retrace their recent moves The parabolic indicator allows us to determine a trend reversal point based on the parabolic movement of the market The faster and higher a market moves the closer the parabolic reversal point gets to the current price and vice- versa parabolic tops are much more frequent than parabolic bottoms why? Many markets are now in parabolic mode so we need to use the parabolic indicator to determine possible trend changes Markets usually go into parabolic mode at the END of a move and NOT at the beginning of a move SEE two chart examples 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 81
Parabolic rally and trend reversal points Parabolic reversal point is hit trend reversals dramatically Parabolic reversal points 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 82
Another example of parabolic of a parabolic top 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 83
Characteristics of Major Market Tops Bullish fundamentals and news Heavy trading volume often record-breaking High bullish sentiment large and small traders Near vertical moves (parabolic) Huge speculative e activity ty prevails Large intraday volatility (trading ranges) Large overnight volatility Many new traders entering the markets New trading vehicles introduced The media is often very bullish Cycles and technicals are usually at or near a peak 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 84
Canada $/US$ Long Term Cycles: 1913-2003 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 85
The Parabolic Rally in Canada$/US$ Midpoint of Cycle 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 86
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 87
Aussie $ / US$ Cycles - Update 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 88
Conclusions: Canada $ and Aussie $ vs. US $ There has been a near 1 to 1 relationship between crude oil, gold, Canada $ and Aussie Dollar Cycles in Aussie, Crude, Canada$, Silver and Gold are topping timing triggers still to come Most other markets (not all) have rallied with them and stand to drop when the top in crude oil comes For 2008 next big bull markets could be lumber and natural gas Crude oil cycles are topping Soybean and other grain cycles are topping No sell triggers yet 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 89
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 90
Conclusion: BrPound/Dollar Cycle is at a peak suggesting dollar will gain on Pound Due to late cycle top decline in Pound could be precipitous and fast Decline in Pound could be prompted by a top in crude oil (same will hold true for Canada $ and Aussie $) Await timing trigger for entry Next chart shows initial long term support 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 91
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 92
Cattle: Mid Decade Lows 1890-2002 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 93
Cattle futures:10-11 year cycle in and trend projection Cattle still likely to make new all time highs 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 94
Cattle: commercials are buying! 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 95
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 96
2007 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 847-831-6900 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 97
Bull market likely to begin soon in hogs 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 98
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 99
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 100
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 101
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 102
Coffee buy triggers 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 103
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 104
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 105
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 106
Time to buy natural gas and sell crude oil? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 107
Soybeans could still rally relative to corn 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 108
Hog/Cattle Ratio Bottoming? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 109
Silver low relative to gold 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 110
Buy soybeans sell wheat? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 111
What is the gold/crude oil ratio telling us? 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 112
A confluence of factors make lumber a market to consider 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 113
Lets look at some triggers MA Channel with Williams ADMA 57 Momentum 28 Divergence MACD 9, 18 Divergence 10 open close (see charts) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 114
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 115
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 116
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 117
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 118
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 119
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 120
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 121
Conclusions and Forecasts Many markets have entered periods of parabolic up movement that usually correlates highly with the END of a move rather than the start of continuation of a move. Numerous cracks in the armor of the secular bull market have started to appear market leaders are deteriorating Bearish divergence persists and has triggered sell signals in a number of markets suggesting that short term tops are in place A number of cycles are topping or have topped but have not yet given sell triggers *** Another attempt at highs in most markets is still possible and, in fact, new highs could still be made in silver, gold and some currencies BUT the warnings are CLEAR and unmistakable *** The dollar shows its lowest sentiment and most bullish divergence configuration in history while most currencies show the opposite patterns Parabolic reversal points are very close to current prices in many markets more warnings of possible tops some have already triggered Corn and soybean prices could still rally into mid 2008 Silver is a better value than gold but both markets are in the final phase of their long term cycle peaks. New all time highs h still possible in gold as the blowoff continues. 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 122
Conclusions, Directions, Suggestions (cont d) Small trader speculation in mining shares, FOREX and futures is excessive and typically indicative of tops in the making we have seen the result The US Dollar and Yen may be the best currencies to own for the intermediate and long term To rescue the US dollar interest rates may need to be raised substantially *** The real estate crunch isn t over as yet the long term real estate cycle doesn t ideally bottom until 2009 BUT values are abundant and some areas are now ripe to buy speculation in foreclosures will be the next big game *** Don t be surprised if we see some bank and brokerage house or lender bankruptcies but these will likely be disguised as buyouts or takeovers Huge mortgage write downs by financial institutions will decrease tech purchases and thereby affect tech stocks which are NOW showing their concern by falling sharply The environment is right for an economic accident. The weakest link in the chain is China. Be prepared. Speculation in China is rampant and dangerous. 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 123
Conclusions, Directions, Suggestions (cont d) Crude oil prices could very well reach the much vaunted $100 level l as they blowoff it s even possible that $105 could be hit but then watch for a massive dumping by producers Stocks are likely to continue lower BUT a year end rally and top in early January are very likely. BUY quality stocks only or buy tech stocks after they have corrected at least 25% from their highs OR after they have hit long term (monthly moving avg channel support. Example: 30% correction in AAPL = about $135 and long term support MAC is about $125 Stocks that have not participated in the rally or that have corrected are good to own as long as they are quality shares: i.e. JNJ, PFE, MDT, HNZ, SBUX, AFFX, WAG, AXP, DD etc. and major banks and brokerages but not yet! Natural gas should gain on crude oil consider a spread when timing is right and consider natural gas stocks Consider the following as bargains and as good candidates for bull markets: hogs, cattle, OJ, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, lumber, natural gas. Lumber could be the BIG surprise bull market of 2008 as builders load the boat at cheap prices for the next housing boom 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 124
Conclusions, Directions, Suggestions (cont d) Volatility will be immense and it will increase even from current high h levels. l Why and how to take advantage of it? Small traders who aren t using large enough stops will be wiped out. The new crop of aspiring day traders will be grist for the mill. Newcomers to FOREX will suffer in the high volatility climate US Farmland prices are likely remain stable and may in fact rise and more farms fall into strong hands and the market for bio-fuels makes even the poorest land a valuable asset Precious metals strategy: continue to take profits on long term positions. You should now be out of at least 35% of positions. Roll into recommended markets on buy triggers (i.e. lumber, cocoa, sugar etc) The news will push markets up and down in extremely volatile selloffs and rallies. If you re a day trader use bearish news to buy into markets BELOW support and to sell into markets ABOVE resistance. EXTREME moves will be your best bet buy you will need large stops. Speculative activity in alternative energy sectors is too high. They stocks may drop even faster than crude oil when the markets top. Alternative energy stocks are now in the midst of a bubble similar to the dotcom bubble. 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 125
My picks for bull markets in 2008 as of early December 2007 Lumber could be one of the biggest bull markets in many years thin volume caution Sugar rally is long overdue - could be an excellent started market for new traders Cattle should test all time highs Hogs should be strong and may be bottoming now Coffee overdue for a strong rally Cocoa could be choppy but worth long term buy OJ coming down to long term support Natural gas could rally very strongly in 2008 Precious metals buy at long term monthly support US Dollar will likely rally strongly when interest rates bottom Buy Grains and soybeans on declines to monthly support REAL ESTATE buy late in the year 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 126
More 2008 picks as of early December Bank stocks Brokerage stocks Yen should gain on the US dollar Palladium is still a good long term value Look at long term price ratios as shown in this Webinar Crude oil at long term support will likely be a buy long term support quarterly chart see next page Selective buying in home builders Selective buying in petroleum stocks Buy natural gas stocks on declines Buy biotech stocks on declines Buy drug stocks that have declined (PFE) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 127
Dow Jones drop to yearly support very possible 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 128
And now 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 129
2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 130
Picks for tops and/or bear markets Swiss, Aussie, Euro, BrPound Interest Rate futures Soybeans complex and grains Energies other than crude oil Year # 8 pattern in stocks if they CLOSE any month below the Jan 2008 lows Farmland not likely to decline much why? Energy stocks bubble Chinese stocks BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 131
Concluding Thank you for attending Mentoring appointment interview (numbers below) of click link below: http://www.comtrade1.com/letter/ June 2008 San Francisco 3 day seminar information at http://www.2chimps.com/web/sf_seminar.htm Write me at: jake@trade-futures.com 2008 by Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600 132