The wine industry a model for climate change attribution and adaptation studies Professor Snow Barlow, ATSE,FAIAST
Viticulture the canary in the coalmine
Evolution of Vitis vinifera Vitis vinifera evolved in Caucasus Mountains- Georgia In close proximity to Mesopotamia the cradle of civilization Integal part of early diets! with- wheat, rye,barley beer Mesopotamia
Wine grape culture is practiced internationally within a narrow latitude band and temperature range (Jones 2005)
Global Wine Industry founded by French on concept of Terroir
What happens when Terroir moves! 2050 Isotherms move poleward by 150-300km - NH area expands,sh declines Jones 2008
Why is Terroir Important Varietal Expression necessary for quality wine
Grapevine Phenology Influenced by CC Globally vintages are moving forward in most regions under climate change Some Australian regions have moved forward by 1.6 days per year over past 25 years Mornington Peninsula Trended TSS Day at 11.6Be 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 PinotNoir Chardonnay Linear (PinotNoir) Linear (Chardonnay) y(pn) = -1.7686x + 111.98 y (Ch)= -1.5581x + 114.4 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984
Climate Change Adaptation a risk management framework Exposure climate change Sensi;vity To these new climates Poten;al impacts Adap;ve capacity Vulnerability
Grapevine Varieties are grouped according to their climate suitability - Terroir GROUP *TEMPERATURE (MJT) VARIETY BEST SUITED 1 15.8-19 C Pinot Noir Chardonnay Sauvignon Blanc 2 19.1-20.1 C Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Cabernet Franc 3 20.2-20.6 C Many suited. No best suited. 4 20.7-22.2 C Shiraz Semillon Muscadelle 5 22.3-23.3 C Malbec Riesling Traminer Verdelho 6 23.4-24.8 C Chenin Blanc Ruby Cabernet Colombard MJT Mean January Temperature
Case Study 1: Imagining the future Changing the Terroir Present Climate Year 2050 mid warming Adaptation Options Stay where you are and change varieties. or Move to suitable climate for existing variety.
Poten;al Impacts of Climate Changes in Grape Maturity Average monthly temperature 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 Vic/NSW Murray Valley Coonawarra 2050 +4.2 C 2030 +2.5 C Year 2050 2030 1990 14 13 12 January February March April May + - Altered fruit - - Vintage - - Pressure on winery January February composi;on compression March April infrastructure May +- - Higher Alcohol wine Webb, Whe'on,Barlow( 2007)
Climate change impact on winegrape quality Poten;al Impacts of Climate Change on Grape Quality in major Australian wine regions Poten7al Impacts - without Adap:ve measures Webb, Whe'on, Barlow( 2008)
Case Study 2:Managing extreme events Capture and codify what we already know Maximum temperature anomalies (differences from the 1971-2000 average) C F 18 64.4 15 59 27-31 January 2009 7 February 2009 12 53.6 9 48.2 6 42.8 3 37.4 0 32-3 26.6-6 21.2-9 15.8-12 10.4-15 5-18 -0.4 Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs17d.pdf
Vineyard temperatures in heat wave 50 45 Maximum temperature observations for January and February 2009 (Data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/200901/html/idcjdw3051.200901.shtml Damage to vineyards reported Black Saturday Smoke taint? C) Temperature ( 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 11/01/2009 12/01/2009 13/01/2009 14/01/2009 15/01/2009 16/01/2009 17/01/2009 18/01/2009 19/01/2009 20/01/2009 21/01/2009 22/01/2009 23/01/2009 24/01/2009 25/01/2009 26/01/2009 27/01/2009 28/01/2009 29/01/2009 Mildura (Sunraysia) Launceston Airport (Tasmania) Cerberus (Mornington Peninsula) 30/01/2009 31/01/2009 1/02/2009 2/02/2009 3/02/2009 4/02/2009 5/02/2009 6/02/2009 7/02/2009 8/02/2009 9/02/2009
Adaptation Approach Post event survey Documenting regional and inter-regional variation of viticultural impact and management input surrounding the 2009 summer heatwave in SE Australia. 1. Weather Awareness 10 Regions X ~10 vineyards = 92 surveys 2. Vineyard impact 3. Management strategies 4. Self assessment: what worked/ what didn t
Regional variation of reported damage
Northern Tasmania Mornington Peninsula Coonawarra Yarra Valley McLaren Vale Heathcote Barossa Valley Rutherglen Murray Darling/Swan Hill Riverland Variation in regional impact 4 n=8 Score 0: Unaffected Score 2: 40% affected Score 1: 20% affected Score 3: 60% affected Scale of damage (1-5) Scale of damage (1-5) 3 2 1 n=7 n=9 n=8 n=4 n=9 n=10 n=7 n=8 0 n=9 Score 4: 80% affected Score 5:100% affected
Correlation with heat exposure? Nth.Tasmania Mng.Peninsula Coonawarra Yarra Valley McLaren Vale Heathcote Barossa Valley Rutherglen Murray Darling/ Swan Hill Riverland Nth.Tasmania Mng.Peninsula Coonawarra Yarra Valley McLaren Vale Heathcote Barossa Valley Rutherglen Murray Darling/ Swan Hill Riverland Heat degree days above 35 (23 rd Jan-9 th Feb 2009) C (above 95 F)
What really affected the impact! Limestone panpoor root penetration 1. Water access/ availability Irrigation PRIOR to the event Rootstock/graft (canopy) Soil type/structure and water holding capacity Row orientation: More damage on west aspect of NS rows 1. Phenological stage Pre or Post Veraison? 2. Canopy/ inter-row cover Good canopy growth early Leaves protecting berries Mulch had positive effect NS orientationeast Shaded bunches NS orientationwest
Case study 3 Testing the results of modeling studies Models need to be tested with real data This data is often hard to obtain Engagement with the industry is a key approach to getting this data
Data extend back from 2009 for at least 25 yrs (ave~51yrs) for 8 of the blocks and for 32 blocks an avg~17yrs. Long term data sets For this assessment vintage records from 40 vineyard blocks in 11 winegrape growing regions from south-eastern Australia have been accessed. Vintage planning sheets Bottle labels Library archives Winery record books Winegrowing sites (12 sites) in 11 regions (grey) in south east Australia from where data was accessed (stars: blue >25yrs, red <20yrs).
Observed Changes in Maturity A trend to earlier maturity of winegrapes was observed in 43 of the 44 vineyard blocks. This trend was significant for six out of the 11 long- term blocks for the complete :me period for which records were available. For the period 1993-2009, 35 of the 44 vineyard blocks assessed displayed a sta:s:cally significant trend to earlier maturity. Webb, Whe'on and Barlow(2011)
Rate of change in Maturity increases with time Average rate of Advance 1985-2009: 0.8 days/yr 1993-2009: 1.7 days/yr Webb, Whe'on and Barlow(2011)
Vintage compression A significant reducaon of 1.1 days per year in the range of days to maturity Webb, Whe'on and Barlow(2011
Drivers of maturity shifts Average observed shi? = ~19 days earlier/25years (0.76days/year) GST model = 6.2 days earlier / 25 years (7.7days earlier per C avegst rise) Soil model = 5.9 days earlier / 25 years Yield model = 5.3 days earlier / 25 years (0.9 days later per t/ha increase) Total model = ~17 days earlier / 25 years Webb et al. 2012
Time series of day of year grapes reached a designated sugar ripeness 100 Goulburn Valley Shiraz (Mc) 95 90 85 0.7 C warming for this region over this period Other drivers? ~16 days DOY at designated TSS 80 75 70 65 60 Winegrapes ripening earlier in the year TOTAL SHIFT 23 days 16 days 7 days 55 50 45 40 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 Day at designated TSS Change attrib. to warming No Change Linear (Day at designated TSS) 1951 1953 1957 1955 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 Vintage year 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1991 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Warming ~7 days (5-9 days) i.e. 10days/1 C ~30% of the total shift in time to a designated TSS is attributed to warming
Possible ADAPTATION potential We suggest management practices may have inadvertently evolved to promote the vines capacity to accumulate carbon, hence ripen faster: Manipulation of identified management practices may enable reversal of some of the undesirable trend to earlier ripening. Yield changes Irrigation practices Canopy/rootstock Vine health CO 2?
Conclusions Trends in maturity observed across majority of regions These trends related to observed growing season temperature changes Maturity trends were accelerating with climate change Significant harvest compression Major drivers for change were Growing season temperature (GST)- 36% Seasonal subsoil moisture -34% Yield manipulation -30% Adaptation strategies to minimize maturity shifts allows 64% of the drivers to be manipulated by vineyard management 3 approaches, modeling impacts, field assessment of adaptation and attribution analysis based on industry data have established significant engagement with Australian wine industry >85% of industry accept CC and are developing adaptation strategies