CLG: Seafood Consumption Richard Watson Seafish
Agenda Seafish Insight Service Benchmark Consumption Trends Trend Drivers Growing Seafood Consumption
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350 Long term Household Consumption of Seafood 300 g/person/wk. 250 200 150 Defra Family Food 100 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60 Household Consumption Species Trends 50 g/person/wk. 40 30 20 10 0 Seafood Ready Meals Ambient (exc Salmon) White Fish Salmon Shellfish Pelagics (Chilled & frozen unless stated) 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Defra Family Food
g/person/wk. 200 200 190 150 180 170 100 160 150 50 140 130 0 Total Seafood Consumption 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-13% Eaten in Home Seafood Eaten total out of Home Defra Family Food
pence/g 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Average Protein Prices Carcase meat Beef and veal Mutton and lamb Pork Chicken, uncooked - whole chicken or chicken pieces Sausages, uncooked - pork Fish 0.0 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Shellfish Defra Family Food
1.4 1.2 Relative Protein Spend 2013 1.0 Pence /g 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Defra Family Food
( 000 tonnes) 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 340 335 Total GB Retail Seafood Sales (excluding discounters) Average Price Over Period: +22.3% Volume Change over period: -8.8% 330 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nielsen Scantrack
GB Retail Volume Sales by Sector ( 000 tonnes) 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 CHILLED Avg Volume +8.8% Avg Price chg.: +16% FROZEN Avg Volume: -14.8% Avg Price chg.: +6.6% AMBIENT Avg Volume: -26.6% Avg Price chg.: +32.2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total chilled Total frozen total Ambient Nielsen Scantrack
90 Retail Volume by Species 80 70 ( 000 tonnes) 60 50 40 30 20 COD COLD WATER PRAWNS HADDOCK POLLOCK SALMON TUNA WARM WATER PRAWNS 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nielsen Scantrack
Seafood Split Retail vs Foodservice ('000 tonnes) retail 336 70% foodservice 146 30% Nielsen/NPD Crest
Foodservice Servings 28.0 1.04 27.5 1.02 1.00 Servings bn 27.0 26.5 26.0-3% -4.1% 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 Total Traffic Servings Total Fish/Seafood 25.5 YE Mar 08 YE Mar 09 YE Mar 10 YE Mar 11 YE Mar 12 YE Mar 13 YE Mar 14 YE Mar 15 0.90 NPD Crest
Category Insight Reports 6 key components for category management UK Economy & shopper Confidence Shopper Behaviours Foodservice trends Grocery Trends Seafood Barriers Market trends
UK Economy & Shopper Confidence In 2014 UK economy strongest since 2007 CPI lowest level since 1996 (0.5%), driven by falling food and utility prices Fish still looks decidedly expensive compared to other proteins Average pay overtook inflation for first time in 5 yrs. Purchasing power low Families still worse off before recession 18% think they will better off in 2015 Shopper confidence is at an all-time high
Shopper Behaviours & Grocery Trends Savvy shopping here to stay Looking to save money & reduce waste Want value for money will pay for quality Want excitement and stimulation at product and fixture No change short term shopping behaviour 80% intend to spend more on treats only 13% intending to splash out on grocery shopping Increased awareness around Holidays Discounters set to double value next 5 yrs. Convenience continue Move away from multibuy to EDLP and fewer simpler promotions More emphasis on Shopper missions and multichannel opportunities
Foodservice Total foodservice spend grew by 2.2% at Dec 2014. Standing at 50.8bn Casual dining up 58% in London Families are starting to eat out again +11% vs 2009 Socialising is the number one reason for seafood consumption across channels (except fish & chips) Adult only parties driving growth particularly in full service channel (FSR) Total Seafood continues its serving decline (-1.4%) Seafood has the highest average price and lowest deal rates for protein other than lamb Seafood servings grew strongly in the travel and leisure channel (+22.8% ) and workplace channel (+2.8%)
SEAFOOD BARRIERS 38% believe only cheap fish and seafood goes into frozen products Out of all the proteins, fish is seen to be the most scary by shoppers Shoppers don t like choosing, handling & preparing seafood Don t like way it looks Don t like the smell or touch or bones Don t know how to prepare it for cooking Most shoppers do not know how to identify fish with a high freshness quality
Will Fish Consumption Increase? Perhaps IF Economy, wages Health, provenance increasing in importance Demand from emerging economies Production costs
Will Fish Consumption Increase? Yes IF Right product, right store.. Freshness quality VFM Inspirational Meet shopper mission Address seafood barriers Shopper/consumer education
What's New? New monthly data New Category Insight report Foodservice 5 yr. forecast Kantar Shopper insight seminar
INVESTIGATING PURCHASING & CONSUMPTION OF FISH Project Debrief Presentation Place Picture Here Simon Hulbert Insight Consultant Wednesday 29/04/2015 Kantar Worldpanel
OUR ANALYTICAL ROAD MAP FOR TODAY S DEBRIEF Panellists have been asked general questions on Attitudes and Triggers, as well as questions about a specific purchase, with the latter being based around 5 elements of the buying cycle. Exploration of all these 7 areas will be used to drive recommendations around how Purchasing to drive growth. Fish Attitudes & Opinions about Fish Mindset SHOPPER INFLUENCE PURCHASE DRIVERS Eating Fish Consumption CONSUMPTION OCCASION MINDSET MISSION AT THE FIXTURE Triggers (for Fish) 25 NB Mindset and Triggers in relation to All Fish, all other questions are in relation to specific purchase. Kantar Worldpanel