TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE Milk Market Observatory 25 January 2017
France Period ending 25 December 2016 Product category ) 4 weeks period (P13 15/P13 16) ) Year on year (P13 14-P13 15 / P13 15 P13 16) Price ) 4 week period (P13 15/P13 16) Price ) Year on year (P13 14-P13 15 / P13 15 P13 16) Total liquid milk -0,5% -2,8% +1,2% +2,6% Of which UHT semiskimmed milk Yoghurt & fresh cheese -6,4% -5,5% +0,4% +2,9% +1,7-0,8% -0,7% -0,7% Butter +0,9% +0,1% +0,3% +1,9% Cream -1,6% -1,4% -2,7% +0,8% Cheese +1,7% +1,7% -0,7% -0,5% Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 2
France Sales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products Organic milk & dairy products Organic dairy products sales have continued to increase. The increase is registered on every product. 40% Consumption of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products % in volume, year to year 52 weeks 25/12/2016 Organic Conventional Organic market shares (% vol. 25/12/2016) 23,2% 22,2% 21,8% Liquid milk 7,5% 20% 18,0% 14,7% Butter 3,4% Yogurts 3,4% 6,4% 1,6% Cream Fresh cheese 1,1% 1,5% 0% -3,5% -1,5% -2,4% -0,6% -1,7% Cheese 0,5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -20% Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh cheese Butter Cream Cheese Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 3
Composition of the milk price in Germany according to value-added steps in 2016 (cents per litre) Producer price 15,3 Acquisition costs 1,4 Production costs of the dairy 8 Dairy management and margin 0,5 Packaging 8 Warehousing and logistics 1,8 Green Dot 1,6 Retailer cost and margin 6,4 VAT 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Source: Statista 4
Germany consumer prices January-October 2015 2016 2016:2015 1 litre fresh milk, 3,5% fat 0,64 0,60-6,3% 1 litre UHT milk, 3,5% fat 0,62 0,57-8,1% 1 litre organic fresh milk, 3,8% fat 1 litre organic UHT milk, 3,5% fat 1,13 1,13 0,0% 1,20 1,22 +1,7% Quark, 500g, 0,1% fat 0,75 0,63-16% Own-brand butter, 250g 0,97 0,96-1% Gouda, 1kg 5,58 5,11-8,4% Whiped Cream 0,45 0,37-17,8% http://www.milch-nrw.de/fileadmin/redaktion/pdf/pressearchiv/2017/nrw-milchmarkt_jan_2016_.pdf 5
Germany Period ending October 2016 Product category % change YTD % change YTD Butter +0,1% -1,0% UHT milk -1,7% -8,4% Fresh milk -0,2% -3,0% Quark +0,0 % -4,6% Natural yoghurt +2,3% +0,7% Fruit yoghurt -3,9% -3,9% Desserts -1,5% -3,4% Dairy drinks +8,6% +8,5% TOTAL -0,6% -3,5% 6
Hungary Product category December 2016 vs December 2015 January December 2016 vs 2015 Fresh and UHT milk +13,3% -2,4% Milk products and cream +0,3% -1,8% Milk desserts and puddings +13,2% +3,2% Cheese +14,7% +3,5% Butter, margarine +5,3% -1,5% As of 1 st of January, the VAT for fresh milk decreased from 18% to 5%; Source: Nielsen 7
Italy Period: 2016 vs. 2015 Product category 2016 vs. 2015 % change Q4 2016 vs Q4 2015 % change VALUE 2016 vs. 2015 % change VALUE Q4 2016 vs Q4 2015 % change Fresh milk -3,5% -0,4% -4,4% -1,7% UHT milk -3,1% -3,2% -6,8% -6,1% Yoghurt +0,7% 0,0% -1,0% -1,8% Fresh cheese (1) +1,0% +0,9% -1,7% -1,6% Fresh dessert +4,2% +7,2% +3,2% +4,5% Cheese (1) +2,2% +2,7% +0,03% +1,1% Source: Market Track Nielsen (1) Peso imposto 8
Poland Period ending - September 2016 Product category Sept 2016 vs Sept 2015) Jan-Sep 2016 vs Jan-Sep 2015) Sept 2016 vs Sept 2015) Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015) Coffee creamers +2,6% +6,8% +2,7% +0,7% Condensed milk -8,5% -8,7% -9,4% -9,8% Cream -2,3% +0,1% -1,3% -1,5% Cultured buttermilk +4,9% +2,5% +4,4% +1,6% Hard cheese +9,3% +17,4% +7,7% +13,5% Kefir -0,4% +0,7% +0,7% +0,2% Milk +1,6% +5,1% +0,9% +0,7% Milk desserts -3,2% +3,3% -3,8% +0,3% Mix yoghurt & juices -32,4% +110,4% -38,8% +99,1% Mould cheeses +6,9% +5,8% +2,4% +1,6% Processed cheese -6% -4,9% -5,5% -1,5% Sweet fresh cheese +1,4% +8,7% +1,3% +4,3% White Cheese +3,4% +8,7% +3,5% +6,7% Yellow fats -4,3% -2,5% +6,8% +0,0% Yoghurts -1,0% +4,5% -1,5% +2,37% TOTAL +0,04% +3,5% +1,9% +2,11% Source: Nielsen 9
Poland COFFEE CREAMERS 0,69% -8,74% CONDENSED MILK -9,78% 6,79% s Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015) Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015) CREAM -1,48% 0,13% 2,49% CULTURED BUTTERMILK 1,58% HARD CHEESE KEFIR MILK MILK DESSERTS 13,56% 17,39% 0,73% 0,26% 5,11% 0,69% 3,32% 0,31% MIX YOGURT & JUICES 99,08% 110,38% MOULD CHEESE 1,61% 5,77% -4,28% PROCESSED CHEESE -1,52% SWEET FROMAGE FRAIS WHITE CHEESE YELLOW FATS YOGHURTS Source: Nielsen 10-2,55% 0,06% 4,32% 8,69% 2,37% 4,54% 8,68% 6,74%
Poland - sales of dairy products in supermarkets 9,0 % 8,34% value volume 8,0 % 7,19% 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 6,01% 5,27% 4,08% 5,13% 3,83% 3,0 % 2,88% 2,67% 2,55% 2,0 % 1,83% 1,91% 1,0 % 0,43% 0,0 % -1,0 % JAN 2016 Source: Nielsen 11 FEB 2016-0,30% 0,34% 0,37% -0,75% 0,04% MAR 2016 APR 2016 MAY 2016 JUN 2016 JUL 2016 AUG 2016 SEP 2016
Portugal Period ending 25 December 2016 Product category s year-to-date) s year-on-year) year-to-date) ) year-on-year Fresh milk -10,7% -10,7% -10,2% -10,2% UHT milk -6,6% -6,6% -7,6% -7,6% Yoghurt -1,7% -1,7% +0,2% +0,2% Fresh cheese +2,0% +2,0% +0,9% +0,9% Butter -1,0% -1,0% -3,6% -3,6% UHT Cream +1,0% +1,0% -0,4% -0,4% Fresh desert +13,5% +13,5% +14,8% +14,8% Cheese +4,9% +4,9% +1,7% +1,7% Source: Nielsen 12
Spain Period ending November 2016 Product category s Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) s Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Price Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) Price Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Standard liquid milk Other types of milk -2,9% -5,3% -4,4% -6,7% -1,5% -1,5% +5,9% +3,1% +0,1% -0,1% -5,5% -3,1% Milkshakes +4,2% +6,3% +4,8% +5,1% +0,6% -1,0% Yoghurts and fermented milk -0,5% -0,9% -2,2% -1,7% -1,7% -0,8% Fresh desserts -0,6% -0,4% -1,1% -0,7% -0,5% -0,3% Fresh cheese 0,0% -0,9% -0,1% +0,5% -0,1% +1,4% Local, traditional cheese Processed cheese Imported cheese 13 specialties +8,6% +6,8% +2,8% +2,2% -5,4% -4,3% -1,4% -2,4% -1,2% -1,9% +0,2% +0,5% +2,5% +2,4% +0,6% -0,3% -1,9% -2,7%
Spain Period ending November 2016 Product category Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Price Nov 2016 vs Nov 2015) Price Jan-Nov 2016 vs Jan-Nov 2015) Grated cheese Other types of cheese +3,5% +3,2% +3,4% +3,2% -0,1% 0,0% -0,6% -0,4% -2,4% -1,4% -1,8% -1,0% Cream +2,2% +0,8% +0,8% -0,4% -1,4% -1,2% Butter +13,0% +3,9% +11,0% +2,7% -1,8% -1,2% Desserts and yoghurt with long conservation Non-liquid milk Total dairy products -11,6% -24,7% -27,9% -40,3% -18,5% -20,6% +0,2% +3,0% -0,9% +1,5% -1,1% -1,5% -0,3% -2,1% -0,9% -1,5% -0,6% +0,6% 14 Source: Nielsen and FeNIL
Spain Source: Nielsen and FeNIL 15
Sweden Period ending 25 December 2016 Product category in the last 4 weeks) last 52 weeks) in the last 4 weeks) last 52 weeks) Milk Hard cheese Cream Yoghurt Cottage cheese/curd Cold desserts Butter -1,3% -0,8% -0,2% +1,7% +0,5% +1,7% +2,8% -1,7% +1,0% +1,5% +1,7% +0,9% +0,9% -0,5% +0,7% -0,8% +3,6% +3,2% +1,4% +0,1% +8,5% + 10% +13,4% +17,8% -2,7% +7,8% -3,2% +6,0% Source: Nielsen 16
United Kingdom UK Dairy Product Retail Price Indices In November 2016, the RPI increased by 0,26% compared with October and is 2,19% higher than the same month last year. The fresh milk price index increased 0,18% on the month and was also up 1,55% on the year. The butter index increased on the month by 1,85% but decreased on the year by 5,45%. Cheese saw a decrease on the month of 1,65% and a fall of 3,77% on the year. 17 https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/gb-retail-prices/#.widlsvmridu
United Kingdom https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/cheese-market/#.wh3ulfmridu 18
United Kingdom 19
United Kingdom: contract league table https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/league-table-new-profile/#.wh3umfmridu 20
United Kingdom unit price (p) Jan-17 Dec-16 Month Diff. Jan-16 Annual Diff. Liquid milk Retail (4 pints)* 103 103 n/c 100 +3 Doorstep (1 pint)** 81 81 n/c 81 n/c ppl Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff. Nov-15 Annual Diff. Cream Total Cream 241 241 n/c 240 +1 Double Cream 211 209 +2 212-1 Single Cream 194 198-4 191 +3 p/kg Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff Nov-15 Annual Diff. Cheddar Total market 574 573 +1 596-22 Mature 571 570 +1 597-26 Mild 517 521-4 542-25 updated monthly ; updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label) **milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online 21