FOODBYTES AUGUST 2016 ISSUE 32 YOUR FREE DATASSENTIAL TREND REPORT

FOODBYTES AUGUST 2016 ISSUE 32 YOUR FREE DATASSENTIAL TREND REPORT

FB What are you all waiting for? It s the line for rainbow bagels! a little girl yells. She takes out her phone and opens Instagram. THE WASHINGTON POST The most controversial bagel in Brooklyn DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 2

THE MENU ADOPTION CYCLE FB Datassential s Menu Adoption Cycle (MAC) is a framework for understanding, predicting, and leveraging food trends. A trend s life cycle is defined by where that trend shows up, starting at fine dining restaurants and then eventually finding its way to mainstream supermarket shelves and beyond. RETAIL Ethnic Markets FOODSERVICE Ethnic Independents I MAC STAGE INCEPTION Trends start here. Inception-stage trends exemplify originality in flavor, preparation, and presentation. Ethnic Aisle Farmers Markets Specialty Grocers Gourmet Food Stores Fine Dining Gastropubs Chef Casuals Food Trucks Upper Casual Casual Independents A MAC STAGE ADOPTION Adoption-stage trends grow their base via lower price points and simpler prep methods. Still differentiated, these trends often feature premium and/or generally authentic ingredients. Fast Casual Traditional Grocery Lodging Mass Merchandisers Casual Chains P MAC STAGE PROLIFERATION Proliferation-stage trends are adjusted for mainstream appeal. Often combined with popular applications (on a burger, pasta, etc.), these trends have become familiar to many. Club Stores Drug Stores Dollar Stores Colleges Quick Service Restaurants Grocery Deli Convenience Stores Corporate Cafeterias Family Restaurants Healthcare K-12 Schools U MAC STAGE UBIQUITY Ubiquity-stage trends have reached maturity, and can be found across all sectors of the food industry. DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 3

On the heels of the release and popularity of augmented reality game Pokemon Go, many operators reacted swiftly, coming up with LTOs or catchy promotions to match the buzz, like Australia s Down N Out, which came out with three Pokeburg burgers. The jury s still out on whether the Pokemon Go craze will fade away or turn into a true trend, but operators have been rushing to capitalize on marketing opportunities by associating themselves with the game. FB It s been more of a slow and steady march for quinoa there s no quinoa game associated with the ancient grain, but nonetheless, the small but mighty ingredient has increased triple digits on menus just over the past four years, making it a bonafide trend sweeping across segments. Recently, Arizona-based chain Pei Wei added quinoa as a starch option. WHAT S THE NEXT SRIRACHA? WHAT S THE NEXT BIG FOOD TREND? HOW DO I KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE TREND OR JUST A FAD? When you deal exclusively with food and food trends, it s par for the course to hear questions like these. Everyone wants to know what s coming up next and, at Datassential, we re always bringing you the latest industry trends, whether it s an overarching theme, like customizable, build-your-own concepts, or segment-specific trends (breakfast battles at QSRs, globally-inspired foods at fast casuals), and boiling it down to insights you can use. With today s widespread use of social media, some trends may seem like they come and go in a flash one day it s all about ramen bun burgers, and the next everyone s talking about Burger King s hybrid Mac N Cheetos. As an operator or manufacturer, how can you tell what trends are in it for the long haul and worth investing in? And what about those flash-in-apan hot topics of the moment? Is there a way to capitalize on things like trending hashtags and eye-catching, Instagram-worthy foods? Datassential s Menu Adoption Cycle, or MAC (see the full cycle on the previous page) provides a framework for leveraging and predicting food and flavor trends. Is it brand new (or relatively unknown) to consumers, landing in the Inception phase? Or is it something like mac and cheese that s widely known throughout restaurants and segments, in our end stage of Ubiquity? Not everything makes it all the way through the Cycle in fact, only about 30% to 40% of trends make it past the first stage. Yet, while these Inception-level items may have a short life, they can create a lot of buzz, making them better-suited to LTOs or special promotions. They may also lead to larger insights that have far-reaching effects. Avocado roses (or fanned out avocado slices, which briefly trended on Instagram) may not make it all the way to Ubiquity, but they highlight the growth of avocados overall, which can now be found on over 40% of the country s menus. Similarly, we also look at some of the other buzzed-about items that have trended on Instagram and other social media outlets, because by understanding the root trend of something like eye-catching rainbow bagels, you can look for new, short-term ways to leverage flavors and ingredients and create constant interest. After the Cronut became the next big thing, operators throughout the industry created their own variations on the underlying trend hybrid desserts. Understanding the difference between a long-term trend and a short-term fad is key to making certain that your products and dishes meet your sales and marketing goals something identified as a fad means it s time to act now, like adding a related LTO or taking inspiration from a hot topic (using Gotta Catch Em All! in marketing); while something that s a long-standing, industry-wide trend should be matched with a long-term strategy (like looking into sourcing pulses to add to the menu). In this issue of FoodBytes, we take a deeper look at food trends, using Datassential s MAC along with highlighting the key characteristics that either propel trends into later stages of the trend cycle or prevent them from progressing past certain stages, helping you better identify whether something is a long-lasting trend or a short-term fad that you can capitalize on right this moment. DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 4

FB 01 Almond milk has increased more then 40% on menus over the past four years, and has recently joined the roster of milk options at Starbucks, but the growth of this trend could be hampered by sourcing constraints. It takes about a gallon of water to grow one almond, and with drought and space issues in California, some are concerned about the demand for both almonds and almond milk. 04 It can be hard to sustain a trend if there s a limited true need for it. While this Fairy Bread Milkshake (Daisy s Milk Bar) can quench a craving for something sweet, is there a true, untapped need underlying the product? 02 There aren t many sourcing problems when it comes to crunchy critters like crickets and other insects, which some companies are heralding as a protein alternative, used in everything from cricket flour to power bars. The Inceptionlevel food, however, may not hop further along the MAC, due to U.S. consumers inherent aversion to eating bugs. In our Fall 2015 issue of TIPS, we found that a third of consumers thought insects were adventurous, but only about a tenth would try them. 03 A quick burst of mediadriven hype (both traditional and social media) often indicates a short lifespan for a trend or fad. Fairy bread, essentially white bread topped with butter and sprinkles, originates from Australia but has taken over Instagram recently and has been called a 2016 hipster trend you ll be so over in a year by Thrillist. 01 True trends are typically restaurant-driven, propelled by chains or operators that are rallying behind an ingredient or product. Plenty of large chains have embraced sriracha, from Spicy Sriracha Dressing at Subway to sriracha pumps (instead of ketchup) at Chicago-based Protein Bar. 03 Trends are successful when they fulfill an essential need. Sriracha fulfilled a need for a new, global hot sauce flavor that could spice up the menu. Consumers extreme need for the spicy condiment even spurred items like Sriracha2go, a sriracha-filled keychain (the company sold 20,000 the week after Buzzfeed highlighted it). 04 A long-term trend tends to find new life late in the MAC, even when it s already in Ubiquity. Bacon was a long-time breakfast staple, but it saw a resurgence a few years ago, starring in everything from bacon chocolate to weaved bacon ice cream sandwiches (this one from DudeFoods.com). 02 The more ways an ingredient can be leveraged, the more versatile and more likely it is to move along the trend cycle. Sriracha products can be found in restaurants and in retail, used in everything from sriracha mayo to sriracha-glazed donuts.

TREND EVOLUTION: HOW BUZZED-ABOUT ITEMS CAN TURN INTO A LARGER INDUSTRY TREND DESSERT MASHUPS FB CRONUT A donut made from croissant dough that saw near-instant success after it was revealed in 2013 by Dominique Ansel. The New York baker trademarked the name after seeing the pandemonium the item caused. By understanding the root of the trend hybrid desserts operators throughout the industry quickly capitalized on the hype. CHAIN ITEMS CROISSANT DONUT Mr. Holmes Bakery s Cruffin (croissant-muffin) CROISBUN Au Bon Pain s CroisBun marries a croissant and a sweet bun, offered in flavors like the sweet cheese (pictured). 42% 40% PURCHASE INTENT UNIQUENESS Dunkin Donuts capitalized on the Cronut craze by introducing the Croissant Donut LTO in November 2014 and it quickly became one of the most successful LTOs in the company s history (USA Today). The item is now on the permanent menu, with LTO flavors released throughout the year recent variations have included Blueberry Cobbler and Lemon. Find out what consumers think about an LTO or new product by testing it in SCORES! Oreo Churros The signature Brookie (brownie-cookie) from Las Vegas Honey Salt. Now-shuttered Waffles Café in Chicago created the Wonut, a waffle-donut hybrid. What new dessert mashups will tomorrow bring? Stay ahead of the trend curve with our recently-released MenuTrends Keynote Report: Desserts for info on consumers favorite flavors and formats. Ansel offers a variety of other unique desserts like frozen s mores and these milk-filled cookie shots.

FB CURRENTLY BUZZING ON SOCIAL MEDIA In today s social media-driven world, constant uploads of food photography is the norm, fueling what s sometimes more casually referred to as food porn showcasing drool-worthy, must-have foods. Social media buzz has a big impact on businesses just look at some of the operators whose creations have gone viral, leading to long lines of fans. Here are some snippets of what s trending online, along with insights on how to capitalize on the buzz. Clockwise from top left: 1) Avocado roses, made by thinly slicing an avocado and rolling it into a rose shape, are all over Instagram. This shot comes from @avocadotoast, an account with more than 30,000 followers. 2) While avocado roses may not be a trend on its own, operators can surely get inspiration from avocado, which appears on over 40% of menus, on everything from the social media-driven avocado toast (here shown four ways by @frommybowl) to Mexican dishes. 3) New York s ChikaLicious dessert bar offers the conechurro, a churro ice cream cone filled with ice cream and topped with a variety of goodies, a new iteration on the hybrid dessert phenomenon. 4) Frosé is the frozen rosé cocktail about to blow up your Instagram feed, (Bustle), shown here at Kindred Restaurant in North Carolina. The cocktail shows how simple ingredients like ice, fruit, and vermouth, can put an upscale, grown-up slushie spin on wine. DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 7

FB New York s Eggloo has 20,000-plus Instagram followers, all going gaga for its photogenic egg waffles, a traditional Hong Kong street food. There are more than 20,000 Instagram posts for the #rainbowbagel, a tie-dyed concoction that drew extremely long lines at Brooklyn s The Bagel Store. Though self-described world premier bagel artist Scott Rossillo has made the bagel for more than two decades, a flood of social media posts made it uber-popular this spring, and now there s even a VIP waitlist to have the bagels shipped. CURRENTLY BUZZING ON SOCIAL MEDIA The self-proclaimed original sushi burrito by San Francisco s Sushiritto. New York s Black Tap continues to make a splash with hours-long waits for its over-thetop, $15.00, 1,600-calorie milkshakes that amass tens of thousands of likes on Instagram. DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 8

FB LAST MONTH S TRENDSPOTTING DINE AROUND In July we took you to Newport Beach, the site of the 2016 Flavor Experience conference. We explored everything that makes the area a trendspotting hotspot, from growing California fast casuals to dock and dine eateries. IN SEPTEMBER: Baltimore INTERNATIONAL CONCEPTS It was all about the luck of the Irish in July s International Concepts when we visited Ireland. You ll find everything from burgers and Italian food to traditional Irish fare like baps and blood pudding. IN SEPTEMBER: Malaysia ON THE MENU Last month Datassential took a look at finger limes, banoffee, power salads, prosecco, hollandaise, and cilantro. IN SEPTEMBER: Tobacco flavoring in desserts, mangalitsa, café de olla, thick-cut bacon, zucchini, and PB&J. FOODBYTES Do consumers like wine? How much do they know about wine? In July s FoodBytes we shared insights on how to educate consumers and take advantage of the wine opportunity. IN SEPTEMBER: A peek at the 2016 Dessert Keynote. CREATIVE CONCEPTS We went tiny last month, discovering some of the country s most unique micro concepts, churning out big flavors and award-winning concepts in the smallest of spaces. IN SEPTEMBER: Catering For information about an issue or to subscribe to a title, contact Datassential Senior Publications Manager Mike Kostyo at 312-219-6435 or mike.kostyo@datassential.com. DATASSENTIAL S FOODYTES: TREND OR FAD? 9

Every issue of Datassential s Trendspotting reports, searchable and ready to download in SNAP! SNAP ON!

datassential.com 888-556-3687 18 S. Michigan Ave. 9 th Floor Chicago, IL 60603