MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 215: TABLE GRAPES 1. INTRODUCTION The following text is a review of the table grapes marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a quarterly 1 basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from quarter 4 of 213 to quarter 4 of 214. This period is subdivided into five, three-month long quarters. The key issues discussed in the review are the trends in producer prices, production volumes and gross value, sales in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs), as well as volumes and gross values of both exports and imports. During the period under review the average producer price increased by 1.67% on a year-on-year basis. The volume of production increased by 51.35%, the volume of sales at the NFPMs increased by 27%, volume of exports increased by 6%, while the volume of imports increased by24%. 2. AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICE OF TABLE GRAPES The average producer price showed a generally upward trend with increment of 13.89% in quarter 4. The producer price increased from R13 824 per ton to R2 371 per ton. The average producer price peaks in the fourth quarter, therefore the only direction the price of grape is likely to go in the next quarter is down due to rise in production. Annual price trends showed an almost upwards figure with average producer price of R 2 37 per ton and R 2 371 in quarter 4 213 and quarter 4 214 respectively. This is a 1.67% increase on a year-on-year basis. On a broader context table grape producer prices are inversely related to production. High volumes are accompanied by lower prices and lower volumes by higher prices. 1 Quarter 1 (January to March), Quarter 2 (April to June), Quarter 3 (July to September), Quarter 4 (October to December) 1
Average price (Rand/Ton) Figure 1: Average producer price of table grapes 25 2 15 1 5 Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF Q4 211 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Price (Rand/Ton) 237 1612 12139 13824 2371.2962 3. TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF TABLE GRAPES The quarterly production and value of table grapes during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 2. Table grape production in South Africa during the fourth quarter dropped to 84 65 tons as compared to last quarter 2 136 tons. This was a 3 86% increase as compared to last quarter (quarter 3 214) and 51,35% more compared to last year at the same quarter (quarter 4 213). Table grapes harvest season takes place in quarter 1 of every year, therefore grape production is expected to reach its peak around next quarter and start declining until it peaks up again in the fourth quarter. Grape production is mainly driven by escalating international and domestic demand. 2
Gross value in Rands (millions) Figure 2: Quartery production and gross value of table grapes 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Volume in Tons 55899 17488 16438 2136 8465 Gross value in Rands (million) 112 2745 2 3 1724 3 25 2 15 1 5 Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 4. SALES AT THE NATIONAL FRESH PRODUCE MARKETS Volumes and average prices for table grapes sold in the National Fresh Produce Markets (NFPMs) of South Africa during the five quarters under review are presented in Figure 3. A total volume of 2 944 tons were sold during the fourth quarter of 214. This was a drop of 161% compared to previous quarter (quarter 3, 214) and 7.3% less as compared to last year at the same quarter (quarter 4, 214). Grape average price at NFPMs inclined to a record R17 712 per ton during the fourth quarter. This is 1.61% higher compared to previous quarter average price of R 17 431 per ton. This was an increase of 28% compared to last year during this time (quarter 4, 214). Generally prices are at highest during the third quarter. The main reason for this may be explained by a fact that there is a decrease in stock availability at NFPMs therefore pushing prices further up. One can predict a decrease in prices for the next coming quarter (quarter 1 215) as available stocks at NFPMs is expected to increase and push prices down. 3
Gross value in Rand (millions) Figure 3: Quartely sale and prices of table grapes at NFPMs 12 1 8 6 4 2 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Volume in Tons 3176 1235 4557 1126 2944 Price in Rand/Ton 13846 9237 1426 17431 17712 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 5. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Quarterly export volumes and values of table grapes during the period under review are presented in Figure 4. The total amount of exported grapes is inclusive of the dried table grapes and fresh table grapes. South Africa exported grapes totaling 86 218 tons and worth R1.8 billion in quarter 4 of 214. This value is 737% lower as compared to last quarter and 58% more as compared to last year at the same time. Within the overall exported grapes, 92% (79 15 tons) were fresh grapes and 8% (7 113 tons) were dried grapes. The bulk of table grapes produced were exported to Europe which imported 86% (74 3 tons) of the totally exported grapes ( tons). Europe was followed by Asia, America, Africa and Oceania which imported 9%, 3%, 1.3 and.65% respectively. 4
Gross value in Rands (millions) Figure 4: Quartely exports of Table grapes 25 2 4 35 3 15 1 5 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Volume in Tons 53958 199983 3322 1293 86218 Gross Value (R Million) 1144 3538 614 251 1869 25 2 15 1 5 Source: Quantec Easydata With South Africa production increasing and increasing export volumes of grapes in such quantities it was expected that less amounts of grapes will be imported during the fourth quarter 214. This is evident on the below graph (Figure 5). Generally South Africa imports large amounts of grapes during periods outside harvest time, which is quarter 3 and quarter 4 of every year. Quarterly grapes imports for the fourth quarter were 99 tons, which is 63% lower compared to the previous quarter and 24% lower compared to last year at the same quarter. Out of the total 99 tons of table grapes imported in quarter 4 of 214, almost 1% (989 tons) were fresh grapes. The largest supplier of grapes into South Africa was Europe supplying 9% of the produce followed by Africa with 1%. One can expect a sharp decrease in the amount of grapes imported for the next coming quarter as production is expected to increase. 5
Gross value in Rands (millions Figure 5: Quartely imports of grapes 3 25 2 15 1 5 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Volume in Tons 131 39 2656 99 Gross Value (R Million) 29 8 63 27 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Quantec Easydata 6. GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS Table 1 presents the results of growth and coefficient of variation estimations. They were calculated using quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in quarter 4 of 213 and ending in quarter 4 of 214. The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility or stability. When the coefficient of variation is less than one, the variable in question is said to be relatively stable, meaning that there were minimal changes. When the coefficient of variation is more than one, it is said to be volatile, meaning there were major changes during the period under review. Table 1: Table grape industry growth rates & variation coefficients (Quarter 4, 213 Quarter 4 214) Category Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation Producer price Price.4.22 Production Gross Value (GV).96.11 Volume.1 1.1 Sales at NFPMs GV/Price 6.35.28 Volume -1.88.79 Export Gross Value 13.7.88 Volume 12.43.97 Import Gross Value -2.36.96 Volume -6.78.96 Source: Calculated from data from Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF and Quantec As shown in the table above, the table grape industry generally experienced mixed growth from quarter 4 of 213 to quarter 4 of 214. The volume sold at markets, exports and imports grew negatively, while the producer price, gross value of sales at the NFMPs, gross value of production and gross value and volumes of export of all variables grew positively. 6
The table also shows various levels of volatility at different levels of the table grape industry s quarterly figures over the same period. Low volatility was indicated by the coefficients of variation that were less than one (<1). All variables, with the exception of volumes of production are less than 1, which means that on a weighted variance scale, they displayed minor changes during the five quarters under review. 7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis www.daff.gov.za Quantec Easydata www.easydata.co.za For more information contact: Director: Marketing Department of Agriculture Private Bag X 15 Arcadia 7 Tel: (12) 319 8455/6 Fax: (12) 319 8131 E-mail: MogalaM@daff.gov.za Websites: www.daff.gov.za www.webapps.daff.gov.za/mis Deputy Director: Commodity Marketing Tel: (12) 319 872 Fax: (12) 319 877 E-mail: ElvisNak@daff.gov.za Senior Agricultural Economist Tel: (12) 319 881 Fax: (12) 319 881 E-mail: JulyM@daff.gov.za Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the purpose of detailing grape industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to agricultural industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability that can be incurred resulting from the use of this information. 7