TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE Milk Market Observatory 28 March 2017
Belgium Product February 2017 vs. February 2016 Consumer Price Index Whole milk -9,15% Semi-skimmed milk -7,97% Concentrated and powdered milk +3,72% Yoghurt -0,15% Butter +11,13% % change in volume % change in value % change in price Dairy products -1,1% -0,9% +0,2% Source: SPF Economie 2
France Period ending February 2017 Product category Volume ) 4 weeks period (P2 16/P2 17) Volume ) Year on year (P2 15-P2 16 / P2 16 P2 17) Price ) 4 weeks period (P2 16/P2 17) Price ) Year on year (P2 15-P2 16 / P2 16 P2 17) Total liquid milk -4,2% -3,4% -1,1% +1,8% Of which UHT semiskimmed milk Yoghurt & fresh cheese -5,7% -6,1% -1,7% +2,0% -0,3% -1,0% -0,3% -0,8% Butter -0,4% +0,1% -0,3% +1,2% Cream -1,8% -1,7% -0,2% +0,4% Cheese +0,6% +1,4% -0,4% -0,6% Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 3
France Sales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products Organic milk & dairy products Organic dairy products sales have continued to increase. The increase is registered on every product. 40% Consumption of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products % in volume, year to year 52 weeks 19/02/2017 Organic Conventional Organic market shares (% vol. 19/02/2017) Liquid milk 7.3% 20% 18.3% 19.1% 22.4% 24.4% 23.9% Butter 3.5% Yogurts 3.5% 2.3% 1.8% Cream Fresh cheese 1.1% 1.6% 0% -3.8% -1.9% -3.0% -0.5% -2.1% Cheese 0.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -20% Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh cheese Butter Cream Cheese Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 4
Germany Product category % change in volume (year to date, December 2016) % change in value (year to date, December 2016) Product category % change in volume (year to date, December 2016) % change in value (year to date, December 2016) Butter -0,3% +3% Half hard cheese +1,1% -2,2% UHT Milk -2,5% -7,2% Soft cheese -0,6% -1,6% Fresh Milk -0,5% -2% Fresh cheese +2,2% -0,2% Quark -0,3% -3,5% Grated cheese +9,4% +2,6% Natural yoghurt 5 +2,1% +0,4% Cheese spread -0,7% -3,5% Fruit yoghurt -4,7% -4,7% Low-fat cheese -2,6% -4,5% Desserts -2,3% -3,8% Feta cheese +1,9% +3,3% Milkshakes +9,1% +9% Total +1,8% -1,3% Total -1,1% -2,4% Source: GfK
Hungary Product category February 2017 vs February 2016 February 2017-March 2016 vs February 2016 March 2015 Fresh and UHT milk +8% -0,5% Milk products and cream 0,0% -2,1% Milk desserts and puddings +9% +4,5% Cheese +9% +4,5% Butter, margarine +1% -0,7% Source: Nielsen 6
Portugal Period ending February 2017 Product category Volume, year-to-date) Volume, year-on-year), year-to-date), year-on-year) Fresh milk -12,8% -11,3% -12,1% -10,8% UHT milk -6,8% -7,3% -0,4% -7,6% Yoghurt -7,5% -3,7% -5,9% -1,1% Fresh cheese -5,4% 0,0% -3,0% -0,2% Butter -4,1% -1,7% -0,2% -2,4% UHT cream +0,2% +1,2% +0,9% +0,1% Fresh dessert +8,5% +12,1% +12% +15,4% Cheese +3,1% +4,0% +2,9% +1,9% 7 Source: Nielsen
Spain Period ending January 2017 Product category Standard liquid milk Other types of milk Volumes January 2017 January 2016) Volumes February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) January 2017 vs January 2016) February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) Price January 2017 vs January 2016) Price February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) -4,5% -4,6% -5,9% -6,0% -1,5% -1,5% +5,3% +4,0% -0,7% 0,0% -5,8% -3,8% Milkshakes -0,7% +5,8% +1,5% +5,0% +2,1% -0,8% Yoghurts and fermented milk -5,2% -1,0% -6,8% -2,0% -1,6% -1,0% Fresh desserts -4,1% -0,7% -3,6% -0,8% +0,5% -0,2% Fresh cheese -6,9% -1,3% -6,1% +0,1% +0,9% +1,4% Local, traditional cheese Processed cheese +1,2% +7,0% -0,8% +2,6% -1,9% -4,1% -6,8% -2,7% -6,1% -2,1% +0,8% +0,7% Imported cheese specialties +0,3% +2,8% -0,8% +0,1% -1,1% -2,6% 8
Spain Period ending January 2017 Product category Volume January 2017 vs January 2016) Volumes February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) January 2017 vs January 2016) February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) Price January 2017 vs January 2016) Price February 2016- January 2017 vs February 2015 vs January 2016) Grated cheese Other types of cheese -3,3% +2,6% -1,9% +2,8% +1,5% +0,2% -2,0% -0,1% -2,9% -1,4% -0,9% -1,2% Cream -5,7% +0,2% -7,9% -1,7% -2,3% -1,8% Butter +8,6% +5,7% +8,5% +4,4% -0,1% -1,2% Desserts and yoghurt with long conservation Non-liquid milk -9,5% -21,7% -1,6% -35,5% +8,8% -17,7% -1,7% +2,6% -6,3% +0,6% -4,7% -2,0% Total dairy products 9 Source: Nielsen and FeNIL -2,8% -1,6% -4,2% -1,4% -1,4% +0,2%
Spain Source: Nielsen and FeNIL 10
Sweden Period ending February 2017 Product category Volume in the last 4 weeks) Volume last 52 weeks) in the last 4 weeks) last 52 weeks) Milk Hard cheese Cream Yoghurt Cottage cheese/curd Cold desserts Butter -2,9% -1,5% -1,0% +0,7% -2,3% +0,2% +3,5% -1,3% -1,8% +0,8% +1,1% +0,6% -0,9% -0,4% -1,2% -0,7% -6,0% +0,4% -7,3% -1,9% +18,2% +12,8% +18,8% +19,3% -3,5% +6,5% -3,1% +4,2% Source: Nielsen 11
United Kingdom UK Dairy Product Retail Price Indices In February 2017, the RPI increased by 1,09% compared with January and is 3,23% higher than the same month last year. The fresh milk price index increased 0,99% on the month and was also up 1,54% on the year. The butter index decreased on the month by 0,89% but increased on the year by 4,94%. Cheese saw an increase on the month of 0,64% and a fall of 1,45% on the year. Source:Ahdb 12
United Kingdom 52 weeks ending 01 January 2017 Volume (000 Litres) YOY diff Spend ( 000s) YOY diff Average price ( /Litre) YOY diff Total milk market 5,481,303-0.3% 3,136,408 0.8% 0.57 1.1% Pasteurised* 4,758,946-0.6% 2,524,978 0.3% 0.53 0.9% Filtered 283,419-0.1% 220,204-0.5% 0.78-0.3% UHT 233,714-3.8% 153,091-5.6% 0.66-1.9% Sterilised 7,156-6.5% 7,362-7.2% 1.03-0.8% Other milk substitutes 111,985 25.0% 151,712 22.6% 1.35-1.9% Milk substitute - Soya 86,084 3.1% 79,062 1.2% 0.92-1.8% Source: Kantar Worldpanel 13
United Kingdom 14
United Kingdom: contract league table https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/league-table-new-profile/#.wnk7xm994dv 15
United Kingdom unit price (p) Feb-17 Jan-17 Month Diff. Feb-16 Annual Diff. Liquid milk Retail (4 pints)* 103 103 n/c 100 +3 Doorstep (1 pint)** 81 81 n/c 81 n/c ppl Feb-17 Jan-17 Month Diff. Feb-16 Annual Diff. Cream Total Cream 252 251 1 241 +11 Double Cream 226 226 1 213 +13 Single Cream 215 211 4 191 +24 p/kg 29-Jan-17 1-Jan-16 Month Diff 31-Jan-16 Annual Diff. Cheddar Total market 575 598-23 596-21 Mature 571 577-6 598-27 Mild 530 532-2 543-13 updated monthly ; updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label) **milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online 16