Main Changing Trends of Citrus Industry and HLB (Greening) Control in China

Main Changing Trends of Citrus Industry and HLB (Greening) Control in China Zhifeng Gao (zfgao@ufl.edu) Food and Resource Economics Department University of Florida

Outline Overall Consumption and Production Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ HLB Control

Overall Consumption and Production 30000 Chinese Fresh Citrus Consumption (1000 MT) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Overall Consumption and Production 140000 Chinese Orange Juice Consumption (MT, 65 Brix) 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Overall Consumption and Production 7 Total Citrus Acreage of China (Million Acre) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Overall Consumption and Production 35000 Chinese Citrus Production and Fresh Citrus Consumption 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Citrus Production (1000 MT) Fresh Citrus Consumption (1000 MT)

Overall Consumption and Production 35000 Chinese Citrus Production and Fresh Citrus Consumption 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Citrus Production (1000 MT) Fresh Citrus Consumption (1000 MT)

Overall Consumption and Production 140000 Chinese Orange Juice Production and Consumption 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Orange Jucie Consumption (MT) Orange Jucie Production (MT)

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 0.45 Share of Chinese Fresh Citrus Consumption of the World 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 25 Per Capita Fresh Citrus Consumption of China, US and the World 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Chinese Fresh Citrus Consumption(kg/Capita) World Fresh Citrus Consumption(kg/Capita) US Fresh Citrus Consumption(kg/Capita)

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 0.8 Share of Chinese Fresh Citrus Consumption, by Type 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Share of China (Fresh Orange) Share of China (Fresh Tange/Mandarin) Share of China (Grapefruit)

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 6 Per Capita Fresh Orange Consumption, China vs World 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World Fresh Orange Consumption (kg/capita) Chinese Fresh Orange Consumption (kg/capita)

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 14 Per Capita Fresh Tange/Mandarin Consumption, China vs World 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World Fresh Tange/Mandarin Consumption (kg/capita) Chinese Fresh Tange/Mandarin Consumption (kg/capita)

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 3 Per Capita Fresh Grapefruit Consumption, China vs World 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World Fresh Grapefruit Consumption (kg/capita) Chinese Fresh Grapefruit Consumption (kg/capita)

0.14 Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Chinese Orange Juice Consumption (Gallon/Capita) 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ 7.0% Share of China (Orange Juice) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ World and Chines OJ Consumption, Gallons 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Per Capita OJ Consumption, China, vs World, vs US 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Chinese Orange Juice Consumption (Gallon/Capita) World Orange Juice Consumption (Gallon/Capita) US Orange Juice Consumption (Gallon/Capita) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 US OJ Consumption, Gallons

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Consumption of Soft Drinks in China, 1999-2013, Metric Liters 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year Carbonates Energy Drinks Fruit Powders Iced/RTD Tea Drinks Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks Juice Nectars Packaged Water Sports Drinks Squash/Syrups Still Drinks

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Share of Soft Drinks in China, 1999 Still Drinks 16% Squash/Syrups 1% Sports Drinks 6% Packaged Water 28% Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks Nectars 0% Juice 2% 1% Carbonates 37% Energy Drinks 0% Iced/RTD Tea Drinks Fruit Powders 3%

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Squash/Syrups 0% Sports Drinks 1% Share of Soft Drinks in China, 2013 Still Drinks 30% Packaged Water 35% Carbonates 15% Energy Drinks 2% Fruit Powders 1% Iced/RTD Tea Drinks 13% Juice 1% Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks Nectars 0% 2%

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Share of Chinese Still Drink Consumption by Flavor, 1999 Pineapple 1% Plum 0% Other 22% Apple 17% Lemon 1% OtherNonFruit 0% HerbandSpices 1% Peach 0% Pear 0% Orange 58%

Pineapple 1% Pear 9% Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Share of Chinese Still Drinks Consumption by Flavor, 2013 Plum 2% Other 9% Apple 2% HerbandSpices 19% Peach 4% Lemon 3% OtherNonFruit 38% Orange 13%

Pear 4% Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Vegetable 0% Tomato 0% Share of Chinese Nectar Consumption by Flavor, 1999 Other 9% Peach 3% Apple 18% Haw 0% Kiwi 0% Mango 1% Orange 65%

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Share of Chinese Nectar Consumption by Flavor, 2013 Other 12% Vegetable 17% Tomato 10% Pear 5% Peach 11% Apple 10% Haw 11% Kiwi 5% Orange 13% Mango 6%

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Pear 5% Share of Chinese Juice Consumption by Flavor, 1999 Vegetable 0% Tomato 0% Other 0% Peach 0% Apple 28% Grape 0% Orange 67%

Decompose the Consumption Fresh and OJ Vegetable 13% Share of Chinese Juice Consumption by Flavor, 2013 Other 4% Apple 19% Tomato 6% Pear 6% Grape 11% Peach 9% Orange 32%

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ Strategic Plan: Long Term Goals Systematically develop China's citrus industry to Increase farmer income Reduce the dependence on import of citrus products.

Strategic Plan: Current Status First phase plan of 2003-2007: Second phase plan of 2008-2015:

Strategic Plan: Achievements 1. Production bases with advantage in citrus production have been identified.

1. Juice orange area Dominant areas of citrus development in China 3. Mandarin area 4. Mandarin area 2. Orange area

Production of Citrus Fruits across China 1. Juice orange area 3. Mandarin area 4. Mandarin area 2. Orange area

Strategic Plan: Achievements cont. 2. Citrus industry has been developing rapidly and the industry is concentrating to the 4 belts. From 2002 to 2012 the citrus acreage and output increased by 58% and 118%, respectively. Large citrus growers are accounting for more citrus production.

Strategic Plan: Achievements cont. 3. Production technology has been continuously improved and the variety and maturity structures have been optimized. From 2002 to 2012, yield increased by 37%. Citrus supply has been extended from July to next February.

Strategic Plan: Achievements cont. 4. The role of citrus grower s organization has been strengthened and the supply chain has been continuously extended. Citrus grower s organizations: 1.727 million members, 30% of the acreage, 57% of the output. A whole system of supply chain: breeding, seedling, professional planting, commercialized processing industry.

Strategic Plan: Achievements cont. 5. Fruit quality has been significantly improved. The ratio of high-quality fruits increased from 30% to 50%. The sale of the newly developed NFC orange juice products was promising.

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ 7.0 Total Citrus Acreage of China, 1993-2012 (Million Acre) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ 25,000 Output of Citrus Fruits 1995-2010 (1,000 tons) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Grapefruit Oranges Tangerines Total 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012-5,000

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ 160 Yield (Box/Acre, 80 Pound Box), 1993-2012 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ From 2002 to 2012 Output: Increased by 134% to 27.4 million tons. Acreage: Increased by 70% to 6.04 million acres. Yield: Increased by 40% to 122.9-145 boxes/acre. Both production of pummelo and mandarin increase at a faster rate: 2002-2010 Mandarin> 54%, Pummelo>47%, Orange>45%

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ From 2002 to 2007 Shard of China production of world total Orange: Increased from 8% to 13%. Tangerine: Increased from 48% to 64%. Grapefruit/Pummelo: Increased from 32% to 53%.

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ 70000 Chinese Orange Juice Production, 2000-2013 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Orange Jucie Production (MT)

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ 3.5% Share of China, 2000-2013 (Orange Juice Production) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Decompose the Production Fresh and OJ From 2002 to 2013 OJ production Increased by 3900%. But, only 3.1% of world production (2013).

HLB / Greening Control Distribution of HLB 11 out of 19 citrus production regions found HLB, about 80% of acreage Infection Rate: Guangdong: 10%- 40% Fujian: 5%, 20-30% Heavy Infected Region

HLB / Greening Control 2012 China Trip Observation 1. Awareness of HLB varied significantly. Growers in high infection regions are more aware of the HLB problem, while people in other regions are unware, or ignoring the HLB problem. One Tree that May be Infected with HLB Farmers Claimed there was no HLB in his Grove

HLB / Greening Control 2012 China Trip Observations 1. Method to Control HLB: a.killing psyllid, b.removing infected trees c. using the enhanced foliar nutrient program

But HLB / Greening Control a. Collaboration is the key: help your neighbors to kill psyllid b. Replant the removed tree after 3-4 years to avoid reinfection c. Big environment matters: Cold weather kill the psyllid (Jiangxi), mountain prevent invention of psyllid (Chongqing)

Citrus trees on Mountain, Chongqing

HLB / Greening Control Daddy Zhu s principle and Dr. Deng s Experiment Economics matters: HLB is not a problem, as long as the grove can get the return for the investment. Practice to reduce loss from HLB: 1. start a grove with very high density (plant a lot of trees per unit), 2. make sure that the yield will reach a higher yield more than 149 boxes /acre. 3. if the tree has the HLB, it won't be removed, it was possible that after 10 years the investment would be recovered and the whole grove can be replanted with new trees.

HLB / Greening Control Another philosophy 1. start a grove with very high density (plant a lot of trees per unit), 2. make sure that the yield will reach a higher yield more than 149 boxes /acre. 3. if the tree has the HLB, remove it to make more spaces between trees as trees grow big.

HLB / Greening Control Dr. Deng s Experiment Grove-- The key: High density trees, and strictly kill and prevent the spread of psyllid.

HLB / Greening Control Dr. Deng s Experiment Grove

Thank You!!! Acknowledgement: Florida Department of Citrus Dr.Fred Gmitter (CREC, UF) Dr. Tom Spreen (FRE, UF) Bob Norberg (Former Deputy of FDOC)

Production of Citrus Fruits across China