International Market Trends on Cocoa Trade for Sustainable Development Programme

International Market Trends on Cocoa Trade for Sustainable Development Programme

Global Cocoa Trends: Production Primary cocoa growing regions are Africa, Asia and Latin America. Africa accounts for 70% of the global cocoa production (with Indonesia the largest producer outside Africa). The largest producing country by volume is Côte d Ivoire, which accounts for 40% of global cocoa bean production. Major producing countries in each region include: Africa: Côte d Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon Asia/Oceania: Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea Latin America: Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia 90% of cocoa bean production originates from small, family-owned farms. Source: World Cocoa Foundation

Global Cocoa Trends: Production Source: World Cocoa Foundation

Global Cocoa Trends: Exports 12,000,000 Global Cocoa Exports (USD thousand) Growing trend 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 World Linear (World) 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ITC Trade Map, HS 1801 Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted

Global Cocoa Trends: Exports Top 5 world exporters of cocoa (USD Thousand) 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 Côte d'ivoire Ghana Cameroon Ecuador Nigeria 1000000 500000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: ITC Trade Map, HS 1801 Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted

Cocoa Trends in Africa: Production Top African Cocoa Producers in 2015/2016 Crop Year (Metric tons) 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Cote D'Ivoire Ghana Cameroon Nigeria Source: Statista

Cocoa Trends in Ghana: Production and Exports 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 Production (metric tons) Exports (USD Thousand) 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 Growing trend Linear (Series2) 0 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Statista Source: ITC Trade Map

Global Cocoa Trends: Processing Market Share: Global Cocoa Grindings/Processors Source: World Cocoa Foundation

Global Cocoa Trends: Processing and Production Global market share for processing has remained stable The Netherlands is the largest processing country by volume, handling about 13% of global grindings. Though unsuitable for growing cocoa, Europe as a whole comprises nearly 40% of the processing market. The remaining 60% is divided almost evenly between Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Around 3.5m tonnes of cocoa are produced each year. But rising incomes in emerging markets like India and China, combined with anticipated economic recovery in the rich north, have led to industry forecasts of a 30% growth in demand to more than 4.5m tonnes by 2020. As demand is projected to continue its stable growth, supply growth may slow due to changing weather patterns in the largest cocoa-producing areas.

Global Cocoa Trends: Imports Top 10 world importers of cocoa (2015) Source: ITC Trade Map, HS 1801 Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted

Cocoa Trends in Ghana: Exports Importing markets for cocoa exported by Ghana in 2015 (USD Thousand) Source: ITC Trade Map, HS 1801 Cocoa beans, whole or broken, raw or roasted

Global Cocoa Trends: Prices Cocoa prices are volatile and influenced by many factors from extreme weather, pests and disease to speculation and political instability in producing countries. In 2000, oversupply of beans saw prices slump to a 27-year low of around $714 a tonne. Then prices rocketed to a 32-year high of $3,775 a tonne in 2011 amid fears of disruption to cocoa supplies following the failed coup in Ivory Coast, the world s largest cocoa producer. Medium Term (to 2020) price prospects: Real prices might stabilise or rise depending on scale of Asian demand growth (PwC). Long Term (after 2020) price prospects: Real cocoa prices could fall back if supply responds and demand growth eases (PwC).

Sustainable Cocoa Market Four largest voluntary sustainability standards Fairtrade International, Organic, Rainforest Alliance/SAN and UTZ Certified certify cocoa production. Combined, they certified a minimum of 1.2 million hectares and a maximum of 2.7 million hectares in 2013 (average 2 million hectares). UTZ Certified has the largest VSS-certified cocoa area. The largest area growth (2008 2013) was noted for Rainforest Alliance/SAN.

Sustainable Cocoa Market Development of the production volume by standard, 2008-2014

Sustainable Cocoa Market Range of Cocoa Area (min/max/average), 2008-2013 Source: FiBL-IISD-ITC survey, 2015. VSS: Fairtrade International, organic, Rainforest Alliance/SAN and UTZ Certified

Sustainable Cocoa Market

Sustainable Cocoa Market

Sustainable Cocoa Market: Multinationals Commitments - aims to certify 100% of its cocoa as sustainably produced by 2020 - aims by 2018 source 175 000 tonnes of cocoa through the Nestlé Cocoa Plan - set 2020 goals in the areas of farmer and community livelihoods

Sustainable Cocoa Market: Challenges Low incomes - Many West African cocoa farmers earn less than the globally defined poverty level of $2 a day. (A family of six in Ghana and Côte d Ivoire with two hectares of land subsist on 34 and 45 cents per person per day respectively). Falling incomes in real terms - Despite the current upward trend in international cocoa prices, farmers still do not receive an adequate, sustainable income that allows them to provide a decent standard of living for their families. Lack of organisation - Many small-scale cocoa farmers work independently and sell their crop to local traders for whatever price they are offered. Lack of technical support and rising farm costs Climate change provides the additional threat of crop failure caused by rising temperatures, unpredictable and reduced rainfall patterns and more frequent and longer dry periods. Child labour and slavery Gender inequality Poor social conditions (inadequate community infrastructure; poor access to education)

The State of Sustainable Markets Statistics and Emerging Trends 2015 Julia Lernoud, Jason Potts, Gregory Sampson, Vivek Voora, Helga Willer and Joseph Wozniak (2015), The State of Sustainable Markets Statistics and Emerging Trends 2015. ITC, Geneva. http://www.intracen.org/publication/the -State-of-Sustainable-Markets/ 20

When VSS benefit producers in developing countries? When producers are: - Involved in the standard development procedure and governance. - Supported with technical assistance. - The conformity assessment is transparent and context specific. - Sharing the financial committment to get certified.

Questions & Answers For more information on Standards Map, please visit www.standardsmap.org Do not hesitate to contact us at ITC: Sandra Cabrera cabrera@intracen.org Standards Map team: standardsmap@intracen.org