The Implications of Climate Change for the Ontario Wine Industry Tony B. Shaw Department of Geography and Cool Climate Oenology and Viticulture Institute Brock University
Climate Change Most scientists and policy makers believe that the greatest force for climate change may be of human origin It is generally agreed that the regional and local estimates of climate change are highly uncertain. However, such estimates are critical for determining impacts on agriculture and the range of preventative and adaptive strategies
Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island
Climatic Trends Lake Ontario Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie
Climate Change
Climate Change
Climate Change Long Term Trends in Annual Temperatures for Niagara (1930 2005) Degree C 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Year
Deviations From 1961-1990 1990 Normal Period
Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island
Climatic Trends Winter Trends in Extreme Minimum Temperatures <-12o C Annual Total 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year y = -0.2597x + 534.2 R 2 = 0.1231
Ice Wine Events Events January (<-8 o C) y = -0.231x + 473.7 R 2 = 0.0929 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Events February (<-8 o C) y = -0.1859x + 381.84 R 2 = 0.1004 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Events December (<-8o C) y = -0.0935x + 193.54 R 2 = 0.0218 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Events 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1977 1979 Number of Events with Ice Wine Temperatures <-8 o C 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 Year 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 J F D
Vineyard With Wind Machine
Climatic Trends Trends in Frost-Free Days 220 210 200 Days 190 180 170 160 150 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Trends in GDDs for Spring Are Springs Getting Warmer? 250 200 GDDs 150 100 May 50 April 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Climatic Trends
Trends in Total Growing Season GDDS GDDS 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 y = 2.674x - 3911.8 R 2 = 0.0543 1200 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Climatic Trends Trends in GDDs for Niagara and Lake Erie North Shore GDDs 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Year
Climatic Trends Index 2250 2150 2050 1950 1850 1750 1650 1550 1450 Trends in Heliothermal Index y = 2.0213x - 2121.3 R 2 = 0.0227 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Climate Change
The Grape
Trends In Ripening Period GDDs 350 GDDs 300 250 200 150 100 50 y = 0.972x - 1718.1 R 2 = 0.0959 y = 0.555x - 1035.7 R 2 = 0.0463 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Climatic Trends Trends in Heliothermal Index During Ripening Period 370 y = 0.9808x + 261.88 R 2 = 0.073 Index 320 270 220 170 120 70 y = 0.1425x + 105.56 R 2 = 0.002 20 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year
Climatic Trends Trends in Temperature During the Ripening Period Degree C 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year A S O Linear (A) Linear (S) Linear (O)
Ripening Period Trends in Ripening Period Precipitation 350 Precipitation (mm) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Precipitation Trends Ripening Period Precipitation (September) y = -0.3186x + 720.42 (mm) 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 R 2 = 0.0065 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 200 150 Ripening Period Precipitation (October) y = 0.3492x - 622.57 R 2 = 0.0167 (mm) 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Impacts on Climate Winters will become warmer Climate Change Impacts Severity of spring frosts will decrease Summers will become warmer Higher frequency of days with extreme maximum temperatures An increase in water usage A decrease in precipitation in spring and summer months
Implications for Viticulture Impact on Vine Phenology Earlier bud break and flowering Earlier veraison and ripening Impact on Quality Accelerated ripening for early season varieties Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due to higher daytime and night time temperatures Full maturity of mid to late season varieties (Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon)
Implication for Viticulture Impact on Yields Reduced yields in rain-fed areas Impact on Varieties Shifts away from whites to high quality reds (Cabernet Sauvignon, n, Cabernet Franc and Merlot) in some areas (Lake Erie North Shore, Pelee IslandI and Niagara Region) Shifts to less cold-hardy whites such as Sauvignon blanc Impact on geographic distribution of viticulture areas Expansion of viticulture areas northwards, but in preferred snow belts areas of the Great Lakes Impact on Phenology of Pests Likely increase in pests and diseases
Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island
Climate Change Preventative Strategies Winery Technology Develop means to capture CO 2 during fermentation Use solar panels and wind energy for electricity Use geothermal heat pumps Recycle packaging and reduce wine transportation
Viticulture Practices Climate Change Develop water conservation measures Develop effective irrigation techniques, such as drip irrigation Develop canopy management practices to conserve moisture Mulch the soil and plant mid row crops in order to absorb more water
Climate Change Conclusions Potential benefits are not clearly evident More controversial, are the implications for agriculture Even more controversial, are what strategies we should adopt
Secular Trends in Frost-Free Free Days and Dates
Climate Change
Growing Season Temperature and GDD Trends
Predicted Temperature Trends